Week 2 Fantasy Pre-Flections
(Posted September 16, 2021)
Week 1 is in the books and it did not disappoint. Check that - it disappointed plenty if you started Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Zeke, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, Julio Jones, or some other big name players who underwhelmed (to put it nicely). Not everyone can go off every week - but fantasy managers don’t want to hear that. We have been preaching that fantasy managers need to be patient to start the season and should not overreact to what they see in week 1 - good luck with that - but after week 2 it starts to be a different story. We will talk about the panic button next week.
As we look ahead to Week 2, here are our pre-flections - our analysis regarding some of the name players we think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This is not intended to be a start/sit column, and we hope you find this analysis helpful. We can’t talk about every player, but we try to hit on a lot of them. We call this analysis pre-flections because we are looking ahead to this week (and beyond) while also weighing past performance, usage, and expectations. We plan to run this feature each Thursday, so please bookmark us and check back for next week’s Pre-flections.
QB:
Expect a big day from Aaron Rodgers. Like top 3 at the position big. Like “F You All” big. Do you think he liked hearing all week that he was dead last in production of 32 starting QBs in week 1, or that he acted like a baby all offseason only to show up unprepared and overmatched? Neither do we. The Packers get a Lions’ D that isn’t very good to begin with and is banged up in the secondary - at home and in prime time. In his last 7 games against Detroit, A-Rod has 20 TDs and 2 INTs. He is a fierce and prideful competitor who just got his rear end handed to him. This one could get ugly, but even if it does the Packers are going to want to show that they still have it, and still own the division.
Kyler Murray should feast on the Vikings, who travel to Arizona after losing a tough OT game last week. This isn’t so much an indictment of the Vikings D (which isn’t great) as it is an endorsement of Kyler, in this high octane offense for a third year, with additional weapons at his disposal. Expect another top 5 week from him, and don’t be at all surprised if Kyler finishes the year as QB1.
He probably is not starting in most 1 QB leagues, but we expect a nice bounceback from Matt Ryan. The Falcons figure to be trailing, and you can’t run on the Bucs. In two very meaningful games against the surging Bucs late last season, Ryan threw for over 600 yards, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Dak Prescott just had his way with this secondary.
Russell Wilson always starts the season hot and now he gets an awful, overmatched Tennessee defense at home. 25 fantasy points in standard scoring feels like a safe floor this week.
Justin Herbert gets a weak Cowboys secondary that’s on the road and figures to struggle to cover for the second straight week. Herbert looked great last week. A top 5 day is on tap for the sophomore star.
All eyes will be on Jalen Hurts this week to see if he can repeat last week’s stellar performance, against a 49er defense that allowed a surprising amount of yardage to Jared Goff in a comeback effort. We think Hurts will struggle a little this week, but his rushing floor will almost always make him an attractive play. Ride the momentum but don’t expect another 29 points.
If you must, these lower-end starters all have good matchups, and they all showed enough in week 1: Baker Mayfield vs. the Texans, Mac Jones at the Jets, and Teddy Bridgewater at the Jaguars.
Don’t be surprised if Lamar Jackson struggles against the Chiefs on Sunday night. He has never beaten them, his O-line is in disarray and just got exposed by the Raiders’ pass rush, and the running backs also struggled in pass protection last week. The Ravens are very banged up and are staring at an 0-2 hole to start the season.
Matt Stafford should be OK, but we expect the Colts D to play better this week, and to eliminate the big play. A top 10 week from Stafford isn’t likely.
In week 17 last year, in a game that meant everything to Miami and next to nothing to Buffalo, Josh Allen went off. He struggled against a very stout Steleer defense last week and should bounce back to a degree this week. But there is a reason that nobody likes playing games in Miami in September. Sunday’s forecast is 90 degrees at gametime, and humid. Tom Brady’s Patriot offense used to struggle against bad Dolphin defenses on September days like this. Temper your expectations.
RB: Most of the big name RB1s and 2s have pretty safe matchups this week and should be counted on for fairly normal production. A few guys with particularly good matchups are Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Najee Harris (who led all RBs in snap% last week), the Broncos RB tandem, and Damien Harris (assuming he is not in the doghouse for his late fumble). And in full PPR, the Lions RB tandem figures to again be busy catching passes (they collectively caught 20 Jared Goff passes last week), and you can consider starting them both as flexes. Speaking of tandems, there should be plenty to go around for both Cleveland RBs against the Texans. We like Elijah Mitchell to lead the 49ers backfield again and to keep it going as a “system back” against an improved Eagles defense. On the flip side, don’t expect a repeat performance from Mark Ingram, who isn’t likely to see a game script like he saw in week 1 until….maybe never again this season. We are leery of Myles Gaskin this week against a good Bills defense. If you drafted Saquon Barkley you probably don’t have better options, but he only saw 12 touches last week as they ease him back in, and the Giants are playing on three days' rest against a good defense, so we can’t recommend him. More caution flags: Mike Davis and Josh Jacobs are facing tough tasks against the Tampa and Pittsburgh fronts, respectively, so temper your expectations for both - sit Davis if you can. We would also avoid all Jets RBs until a clear leader emerges from that backfield, plus their running game figures to suffer with the Becton injury. Finally, James Robinson doesn’t appear to have the hold on the lead job that we all assumed he would have after the Travis Etienne injury. Sit him if you can until further notice.
WR: Let’s start with some of the guys we are excited about this week: We expect a big bounceback for Davante Adams, who Rodgers will look for early and often. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both in store for a lot of targets and catches against a weak Cowboys secondary. In the same game (which has one of the highest implied point totals of the week (52.5)), it may not matter who the Cowboys play in any given week - they are going to throw a ton and with Michael Gallup out, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper should again be very busy and productive. Calvin Ridley also figures to bounce back as Atlanta should be throwing a ton at Tampa - a game that also has an implied total of 52.5. Last week it was Tyler Lockett, and it could be again, but our guess is that this week it is D.K. Metcalf who will catch bombs from Russ and roast a bad Titans secondary. Yup, the Titans are another 2020 playoff team that’s staring at an 0-2 start. Another game with a high implied total is Minnesota at Arizona, and we like all three of Hopkins, Thielen and Jefferson to do their thing in this one. Last week Christian Kirk got two TDs, this week we like Rondale Moore to surprise as the team increases his role and figures out more ways to get the ball in his hands - Moore is a better play in leagues that count return yards for individual players as he is returning both kicks and punts. The Broncos have a tasty matchup with the Jaguars - it is just a question of how the targets will flow with Jerry Jeudy gone, and if the Broncos need to throw much, so proceed with caution, but of all their guys we like Tim Patrick best. We also think the Titans will try to get the ball to Julio Jones in a game where they will be chasing points, but we are only cautiously optimistic as he was truly invisible last week. Allen Robinson figures to be very busy against the Bengals and we like him as a top 10 play this week. In terms of lower end guys, in PPR leagues we like Sterling Shepard, who figures to get peppered with targets again, and we also like Jarvis Landry (especially if Odell sits again), Leviska Shenault and Jakobi Meyers to exceed expectations. As for our yellow flags - Corey Davis is clearly the favorite target of Zach Wilson, but expect Wilson to struggle against the Patriots, which means Davis could struggle too. You’re starting all three Bucs receivers, but each week, one of them will likely be the odd man out - last week it was Mike Evans, but he has owned Atlanta, so this week it could be either of the other two. Michael Pittman may see a lot of Jalen Ramsey, so we are down on him this week. And until we see him playing the majority of snaps, we can’t recommend starting Brandon Aiyuk but obviously don’t do anything silly like dropping him. We would wait at least a week on Will Fuller to see how the Dolphins’ offense looks with their full complement of weapons available. And you’re starting Terry McLaurin unless you have better options (not likely) but temper your expectations - between the QB change and the Giants physical secondary, he could struggle on Thursday night. In the same game, we aren’t recommending Kenny Golladay until we see something from him. Sit him. The Marquez Callaway breakout didn’t start last week as many had forecasted - wait on him until we see it. Better to be a week late than a week early.
TE - The one Bronco we do feel good about in terms of a solid expected target share is Noah Fant - Teddy Bridgewater looks for him often, and he should be able to exploit a Jaguar defense that struggles against tight ends. We think Darren Waller will lead the NFL in targets this year. The Steelers are tough but it may not matter - like Travis Kelce, he is a set it and forget it, matchup-proof player and we like him EVERY week. We think the Falcons will throw a ton and find a way to get more balls to Kyle Pitts, and we like him to announce his NFL arrival this week as Atlanta’s passing game bounces back. Last year we didn’t see vintage Gronk until the playoffs but this year it started in week 1, and it might be a real thing all year this time around - start him with confidence until you see a reason not to. Surprise, surprise, we like Robert Tonyan this week as part of the Rodgers bounceback. And in the same game, T.J. Hockenson again figures to be a frequent target of Jared Goff. We also like Jared Cook against the Cowboys - mostly because we like any every-down pass catcher against this defense. Given the lack of quality and depth at this position, it is hard to recommend against starting any of the top 12 or so tight ends, but for now we cannot recommend Mike Gesicki or Austin Hooper, neither of whom led their team in TE routes last week. Juwan Johnson had 2 TDs last week on just 12 snaps - this looks like fool’s gold to us. And not only is Zach Ertz not the lead tight end in Philly but he is also banged up, so don’t consider him.
D/ST: Come on, get your league to switch to IDP and stop with this nonsense.
PK: Not doing this one either - the position is almost always a crapshoot - just play accurate kickers on teams that score a lot of points. There are at least 12 of them.
Good luck to all in week 2. And be sure to come back on Tuesday for our Week 2 fantasy recap.
The Pigskin Papers
