Prime Time Madness in the NFL
(Posted September 20, 2021)
The NFL’s wishes came true in the last seven days - three straight prime time games on Monday, Thursday and Sunday night were thrilling, gut-wrenching nail-biters that came down to the last possession, with all sorts of crazy and unexpected twists and turns. These were finishes that had people out of their chairs and couches screaming “I can’t believe what just happened!”, and a whole bunch of other things I can’t print. They will likely be three of the most memorable finishes we see all year, and somehow they happened in three consecutive night games during the first two weeks of the season. These games reminded us all of why we love football and the drama it produces, and why it is firmly entrenched as America’s pastime. Thank you, NFL.
But here is the really crazy thing about those amazing finishes - in each case, one team (the Ravens, the Giants, and then the Ravens again) was facing almost certain defeat and managed to force a game-saving turnover in the closing minutes that put them in a position to win. And yet only one of those teams that got the turnover actually went on to win.
What I just wrote is a little hard to believe. A key turnover at the end of a “last possession wins” kind of game almost always decides the game, unless the team that got the turnover needs a FG to tie or win, and the kicker misses. In the case of the first game (Ravens at Raiders on Monday), the OT pickoff of Derek Carr in the end zone didn’t exactly put the Ravens in an easy position to win. Rather, it just staved off defeat and gave them the opportunity to drive the field and win, but when Lamar Jackson promptly fumbled a few plays later, the turnover was returned and the Raiders finished it off.
But let’s talk about the other two games, where the turnovers resulted in situations that were similar, but produced different outcomes. Let’s take a closer look at why that was the case, and what we, and more importantly NFL Head Coaches, can learn from it.
Here are the two scenarios: (1) The Giants were trailing the WFT by a single point. Facing a 4th and 9 at their own 39 with 3:13 left, the Giants punted, hoping to get a 3-and-out so that they could get the ball back to drive for a winning FG. On the third play after the punt (a 2nd and 7), the Giants’ James Bradberry intercepted Taylor Heinicke at the WFT 20. So with 2:16 left, the Giants got the ball in easy FG range, with the WFT holding all three timeouts, plus the two-minute warning still remained. (2) The Ravens scored a go-ahead TD with 3:14 remaining in the 4th quarter, taking a 36-35 lead. The two point try failed. The Chiefs got the kickoff and started driving, moving down to the Baltimore 32. At this point, the Chiefs had the opportunity to kill the clock while inching closer to a game winning FG as time expired, and despite a spirited comeback, things looked bleak for the Ravens against their nemesis. However, on 2nd and 3 from the 32, promising rookie Odafe Oweh forced a Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumble with 1:20 left on the clock. So the Ravens had the ball and the lead, but the Chiefs still held all three timeouts.
The situations are not identical - The Giants needed to kick a FG to take the lead and the Ravens did not, plus there was more time left in the NFC game. But here is what is identical: Neither team could just run out the clock, because in both cases the opponent held all of its timeouts. Both needed to make a first down to ensure that the opposing offense would not see the field again with any meaningful time left - the surest path to victory. The Ravens did what they did all night - ran it right at the Chiefs and then converted on 4th and 1 to keep Patrick Mahomes and Harrison Butker on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the Giants very predictably went run-run-incomplete-FG (with only 16 seconds coming off of the clock), and gave the ball back, with ample time left, to a team needing a game-winning FG.
You can Blame Dexter Lawrence and Darius Slayton all you want - this sequence after the Bradberry interception late in the 4th quarter had as much to do with the Giants losing this game as anything else, as did the Giants 3-and-out on the possession before, but that is another story. The Giants got the ball on that gift INT and promptly went into an offensive shell and played it safe. It appears that their main goals were to not turn it back over, and to stay inbounds so that the WFT had to use timeouts. There was no apparent urgency to move the chains once or even twice if necessary, so that they could kick the game-winning FG as time expired (or with so little time left that a comeback was highly unlikely). The Giants should have used their full playbook and tried much harder to get a first down and not just to settle for a predictable “make them use their timeouts” 3 and out.
Lots of NFL coaches don’t appear to have a good understanding of these situations. Possession of the ball matters and it matters a lot. It is how you score points in the NFL, and how you keep the other team’s point scoring unit off the field. It’s why the advanced analytics that are at long last being used are often telling coaches that in way more situations than they thought, they should go for it on 4th down, and not just once they are inside the 45. Week 1 saw a record number of 4th down tries, and we should expect that trend to continue all season. If you have the ball, you can score points and for the most part the other team can’t. It’s a pretty simple but powerful maxim.
In the games we discussed above it wasn’t about the scoring points side of the “possessing the ball” coin, but the avoiding points side. Most NFL offenses are very capable of executing the two minute drill, and there are lots of reasons why teams are very successful in driving for game-tying or game-winning points in the final minutes. For one thing, the offense has all four downs at its disposal to gain a first down on every set of downs. For another, when you’re spreading it out and throwing on almost every down, the chances for penalties in the defensive secondary go up. Taylor Heinicke is never going to be confused for Patrick Mahomes. But the WFT already had scored 27 points on the night, and they had scored on three straight possessions before the INT. NFL kickers today have ranges of reliability that go out to 55 yards in most cases, meaning if you start a possession at your own 25 you need just under 40 yards to have a makeable FG try. Give most NFL offenses a minute and change and they have a pretty good shot of doing that. You do not want to give the ball back.
Lots of people are giving credit to John Harbaugh for a “gutsy decision” to go for it on a 4th and 1 from his own 43. It actually wasn’t all that gutsy - it was 100% the right call and if they had punted and lost it would be all you are hearing about today. It would be Matt Lafleur kicking that idiotic FG down 8 points with 2:37 left in the NFC title game. Everyone in the building and watching at home on TV knew that if the Ravens punted there, and Patrick Mahomes got the ball back, the Chiefs would likely hit a game winning field goal as time expired. Here is the bottom line - barring bad weather, a significant injury or some other exacerbating factor, in almost all other cases, if you have a choice between trying to win a game at the end with your offense or defense, pick the offense.
