Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 1
(Posted September 14, 2021)
Welcome to our newest Fantasy Football feature - our version of a weekly recap where we try to sort out what happened, and figure out what it means. From an NFL standpoint, Week 1 is always a challenge to handicap - some teams come out of the gate red hot while others appear to not know there was a starting gate to emerge from. This happens every year. For those who crapped the bed like Green Bay, Atlanta, and Tennessee, we will see how quickly they can get the sheets clean (or if they can’t) and how this impacts the fantasy-relevant players on those teams. I hope all of your fantasy teams did better than mine did this week. But as they say, it is only one week. Keep that in mind if you’re licking your wounds and putting a picture of Derrick Henry on your dartboard.
Speaking of the Packers, and the reigning NFL MVP who dominated the headlines this offseason with his disgruntledness, if you had told me (or any other person who covers the NFL or follows it closely) that one starting QB in the GB-NO game would have 5 TDs and zero INTs and the other would have 0 TDs and 2 INTs, well...I think you see where this is going. Such is week 1. It is hard to know what’s real and what’s a mirage. It’s hard not to overreact with savage takes. It’s hard not to get too excited about upside guys who went off and appear to have been underdrafted, like Corey Davis, Deebo Samuel, AB and Jalen Hurts, and hard not to panic if you spent big on Derrick Henry, Zeke, or Najee Harris, nabbed Julio Jones and Kyle Pitts in the middle rounds, and then grabbed Aaron Rodgers as your starting QB. Take a breath. I’ve got Davante Adams and Calvin Ridley - I need to take two breaths and two aspirin….
This year more than ever, it is a long season. 16 games - the prior measure of a full season - still remain. A lot will change. Some story lines from week 1 will die a quick death, while others will linger, or even snowball. Some teams, and players, will look completely different later in the season - for better or worse. Just look back to week 1 last year. The Jaguars - expected to be among the worst teams in the league - logged an impressive win. They didn’t win another game all season. And the Bucs got convincingly thumped by the Saints. We know how their storybook season ended. And the same is true of some players in fantasy, and it happens every year. The bottom line is that we shouldn’t overreact to what we saw this past week, but we cannot ignore it either. The week 1 waiver wire figures to be busy.
Let’s start with an injury roundup, and the impact. Injuries were light in week 1 - a pleasant surprise after the last couple of seasons which were brutal at the outset. Key injuries:
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip) - out 6-8 weeks. Enter Tyler Heinicke. Almost nobody was starting Fitz in 1 QB leagues, and I wouldn’t bother picking up Heinicke, but he can run, which could impact Antonio Gibson’s value. This switch at QB figures to hurt the entire WFT passing game, but you never know, and you aren’t benching Terry McLaurin or Logan Thomas unless you somehow have superior options.
RB: Raheem Mostert (knee) - out 8+ weeks. Bummer, but this player getting injured shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point - he is just one of those guys. Throw in the odd week 1 inactive status of Trey Sermon, and we now have a full-blown mystery as to expected usage, in an offensive scheme that just bleeds ridiculous RB production, as it did in week 1 with points that NOBODY enjoyed. Literally, nobody. Feel free to pick up Mitchell or Hasty, but know that while there surely will be fantasy goodness to be had, who gets it each week is going to be hard to predict. Add in the weird usage of Brandon Aiyuk, and the rotation at QB, and maybe Kyle Shanahan simply is the new Belichik, only more maddening and annoying, and slightly better dressed.
Jerry Jeudy (ankle) - out 4-6 weeks. High ankle sprains can be hard for WRs to come back from - just ask Michael Thomas. This was a shame to see as Jeudy was off to a nice start and was an almost unanimous pick to have a breakout in year 2. The biggest beneficiary appears to be Tim Patrick, but more targets should also flow to Noah Fant and K.J. Hamler.
Michael Gallup (calf) - out 3-5 weeks. This just means more targets for the other pass-catchers, in the pass-happiest of offenses. Giddyup!
Lingering injuries were also a story. We said last week that Saquon Barkley would be eased in and that’s what happened - he only saw 11 touches and did not do much with them. And Odell Beckham, also recovering from a torn ACL, was not ready for week 1, which was a surprise. If you own these players, pay close attention.
Next, let’s look at usage - as we all know, opportunity in fantasy is half the battle, if not more. A few numbers pop (but remember also that the Bengals, Vikings, Raiders and Ravens played almost five quarters of football)
Most carries: 7 RBs cleared 20 carries in week 1: Mixon (29), Ingram (26), D. Harris (23), McCaffrey (21), and Gibson, Kamara and Cook (all 20). Don’t expect to see many 20 carry games from a Texans RB, and it will be interesting to see if that late fumble by D. Harris costs him touches. It is surprising to not see the 2020 and 2019 carries and yards leader on this list, but Tennessee was playing from behind all day. Still, if you own Henry, you have to be a little worried with what you saw. Maybe his almost 700 carries the last two years was a bit much, and maybe Arthur Smith mattered a lot.
Most targets: Darren Waller had 19 targets. That’s not a misprint and if you watched the game, that number seems low. He is going to feast all year. The rest of your top 6 seems largely unsurprising: Cooper (16), Lamb (16), T. Hill (15), Godwin (14), and Diggs (14).
Most RB targets: This is hard to believe, but the top 2 guys are on the same team as Swift and J. Williams combined for 20 targets. The Lions are very short on proven NFL wide receivers and figure to be playing from behind with regularity, so until further notice, assume that their RBs and TEs will continue to get peppered with targets from Jared Goff. Plan accordingly.
Most QB attempts: This one should have Vince Lombardi doing backflips in his grave - SIX QBs topped 50 attempts in week 1. Prescott led the way with 58, followed by Goff with 57. Others: Carr, Allen, Lawrence and Brady. Someone’s arm is going to fall off this season.
On to our awards section, and we start with our GOAT and goat of the week:
GOAT of the week: Jameis Winston. There is a lot of competition for this in a stacked week, and Derek Carr made his case last night, pulling out an incredible win with some amazing throws against a good secondary, and topping all QBs in yardage. Jameis didn’t throw for a ton of yards in a game that got out of hand in the second half. But when we last saw Jameis he was throwing 30 INTs in a season and getting benched. His 5 TD, 0 INT performance in the Saints’ complete dismantling of what is supposed to be a very good Packers defense was eye-popping. Jameis, welcome back, and we are glad you had LASIK surgery.
Goat of the week: Aaron Rodgers. This may have been his single worst game as a pro. Enough said. He gets the Lions on Monday night and we should all expect an offensive explosion from the Packers. If not, well, maybe Green Bay should have dealt Rodgers when they had the chance…..
Top coaching debut: Nick Sirriani, Eagles. Philadelphia dominated on both sides of the ball. It is only one week but this performance bodes very well for the team’s fantasy outlook.
Bottom coaching debut: Urban Meyer, Jaguars. Blown out by the lowly Texans? Will Meyer be the next Steve Spurrier or Chip Kelly who struggles to make the transition to the NFL? This team only won one game last year, so let’s be patient and reserve judgment but this blowout loss to a bad team was not a good start. From a fantasy standpoint, though, Jacksonville might lead the league in garbage time. Arthur Smith already called us to complain that he didn’t win this award. It was close, Arthur.
And now for some facts that may interest only me. Here are a few things you may have missed from this past weekend. Do with this information what you will.
The western division teams were a perfect 8-0 this week, with a tremendous amount of fantasy goodness to go around on all 8 squads. These 8 teams averaged just under 30 points in week 1. The NFC West might be the best division we have seen, top to bottom, in a long time. And the Broncos and Chargers look like complete teams - we picked both to make the playoffs. Stay tuned.
On the other end - not one team in the AFC East broke 20 points this week, and the fantasy production was obviously impacted as a result. Some of this had to do with the defenses they played - expect an uptick for most of these teams, immediately in week 2.
All four second year starting QBs - Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Hurts - logged wins. All three rookie starting QBs - Lawrence, Z. Wilson and M. Jones - were on the losing end of their games. Remember when it was unheard of for a rookie QB to start right away? Those days are long gone. Justin Fields and Trey Lance also saw limited action and should be sprinkled in more and more each week, with Fields starting at some point and maybe Lance too. The rookie QBs are going to be a big story all year - but their fantasy performances figure to be somewhat uneven. The four second year QBs can all be trusted as weekly starters in a 12 team league, except for Tua who was decent in week 1 against a tough defense in a tough building and will get his chance to prove otherwise.
Underdogs went 12-4 ATS this week. Gamblers, take notice, as this often happens in week 1.
The first three receivers taken in the 2021 draft (Chase, Waddle and D. Smith) all caught TD passes in their NFL debuts, and all appear to be safe fantasy starts as WR 2s-3s or flexes.
Trey Lance threw a TD on his first NFL pass attempt. Hopefully someone kept the ball.
The very last player to score points in week 1 (Zay Jones) has the very last first name in the league, alphabetically. Really. Talk about meaningless….
