Week 1 Fantasy Pre-Flections
(Posted September 11, 2021)
And so it begins. The NFL season kicked off Thursday night with an air show. It was just one game, but it could be a preview for something we see a lot of this year - neither team trying to establish the run, QBs slinging it all over the field on almost every down, and defenses struggling to get pressure and to cover. Even the refs seemed to be in on it - calling a few ticky-tack DPIs and missing a very obvious push-off OPI at a critical moment on the game’s final drive. The one thing missing from what I think we will see a lot of this year was QB’s taking off and running for big gains. In the end, there were 7 passing TDs and zero rushing TDs. No running back ran for 35 yards, while the two QBs combined for just under 800 passing yards. Yikes.
Most of the remaining week 1 games should be less pass-happy - the Bucs in particular figure to be a very stingy run defense that’s often protecting a lead, meaning the Bucs should see as many pass attempts as any NFL team. But at the same time, this is the continued evolution of the NFL - something we talked about on this blog over the summer.
So with all of that in mind here are some thoughts (we are going to call them fantasy pre-flections) heading into week 1. Unlike most columns that are giving out start-sit and lineup advice, this column is going to focus on things to look for, and to think about, to hopefully give you an edge as a team manager going forward.
The Bucs and Cowboys reminded us that some offenses are built to support three fantasy WRs. Mike Evans and Michael Gallup didn’t do much in game one, but they will have their big weeks too (assuming Gallup is healthy). Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will also support three viable options at WR, and a few other teams might (Miami, Denver, Arizona and perhaps others).
A number of people have asked me to evaluate potential trades this past week. My evaluation is this: wtf bro, why are you looking to make trades before week 1? I get it if you just lost Gus Edwards, or forgot to draft a kicker, or some other necessity. But we have nothing to go on yet - and if someone is offering you a trade they’re doing so for a reason. I get that prices of players change with performance year-to-date, so you might be able to get a guy at a discount right now (by the same logic, you might overpay). But I always advise against hasty actions in fantasy football, and shaking up your team before you’ve seen them run a single route or tote a single carry seems way, WAY too hasty to me. Wait a couple of weeks to see what it is you’ve got.
Which leads to….Be leery after this week when you start getting offers on Tuesday for your star players who didn’t produce (that lack of production is discussed in the next bullet) in week 1. I’m talking to you, Zeke owners. Those owners making you those offers are circling sharks.
Be patient with your squad this week, and try not to overreact to one week of performance. We all rush to judgment and start second guessing our draft picks when we see our “star” player crap the bed while some guy we could have taken but passed on goes off in week 1. Some version of that is going to happen to us all, each week, but the reaction to it can be especially strong in week 1 because of two psychological phenomena at play: we have the recency bias (and strong memory) of having just done our drafts, plus we all get fooled into believing that week 1 is a blueprint and microcosm of an entire season. It is no such thing. Be especially patient with your RBs - as we saw Thursday, there are going to be games where the run is an afterthought. Hopefully, when that happens your guys catch some passes, or get a cheap TD plunge after a DPI in the end zone.
Regardless of what I just said, there are some things we will learn in week one that are going to matter, and the owners who are able to recognize these things will have an edge assuming they have a way or can find a way to use it to their advantage. For example, we learned in week 1 last year that UDFA James Robinson was in fact “the guy” in Jacksonville, and that Myles Gaskin was the clear lead back in Miami. Pay close attention to what you see in week 1 in terms of team trends and usage, more than individual performance.
Brace yourself for injuries. They happen. Always. If not this week, then another week. It’s not luck. It’s NFL football - a violent game played by elite athletes whose size, speed and strength is something most of us cannot even begin to fathom. Hopefully, you drafted for depth, and are good at working the waiver wire.
Make your best lineup decisions for the week, and be prepared for a big week from your bench. Week 1 is unique in that almost nobody is already hurt and nobody is on a bye. Your entire team is at a level of full strength that you aren’t going to see again all season. That means you’ve got more healthy and active options than you’re ever going to have.
And some general advice where I will sound like your mother when you were a kid going outside on a cold fall day without a jacket (sorry, but I had to make sure that voice was in your heads): Make sure you check last minute for injuries, active vs. inactive designations, and weather reports. It takes five minutes - don’t be the guy who starts someone who pulled a hammy in pregame warmups. While we are here, always check your lineup one last time before the games kick off Sunday at 1 - it is amazing how often someone has an incomplete lineup, or starts a guy who is inactive or on bye. Don’t be that guy either.
That’s it - good luck to all in week 1!
