Bold NFL Predictions - 2021
(Posted September 8, 2021)
At long last, the 2021 NFL season is here! If you’re a fan of the New York Mets like I am, the start of the football season could not have come soon enough…..Thanks for August, guys.
By popular demand, we present you with some obligatory predictions for this season from the Pigskin Papers. I don’t expect too many of these to turn out correctly - anyone who claims to know with any degree of certainty what is going to happen this season is probably trying to get you to pay money for something. Our predictions are free! Do with them what you wish.
First, the division champions. Nothing too surprising here.
AFC: NFC:
East: Buffalo East: Washington
North: Baltimore North: Green Bay
South: Indianapolis South: Tampa Bay
West: Kansas City West: San Francisco
Next, the wild cards. Your surprise teams here are the Broncos, Chargers, Falcons and Bears.
AFC: NFC:
LA Chargers LA Rams
Denver Chicago
Cleveland Atlanta
How about some hardware?
League MVP: Josh Allen
Offensive POY: Calvin Ridley
Defensive POY: Chase Young
Offensive ROY: Kyle Pitts
Defensive ROY: Patrick Surtain II
Comeback POY: Sam Darnold (because they give it to QBs most of the time - otherwise, Derwin James)
Some random predictions:
Records for at least three of these six stats - catches, receiving yards, passing attempts, completions, passing yards and passing TDs - will fall this year, thanks in part to the extra game, but this also reflects the evolution of the NFL. Other major single season individual records will survive for at least one more year.
No head coaches will be fired before Thanksgiving.
Deshaun Watson will not be traded before the regular season is over - nor will he play a snap this season.
At least 3 QBs will rush for 1,000 yards this season, for the first time in NFL history.
Three divisions - the AFC West, AFC North and NFC West - will have three teams with 10 or more wins.
The NFC East will not have a ten win team for the second straight year.
The second, third, and fourth place teams in the NFC South will be separated by a total of two games or less.
The Falcons, Jaguars, Chargers and Jets will each improve their win total from last year by at least 4 wins.
The Texans will have the first pick in the 2022 NFL draft. And maybe in 2023 also. The good news here is that for this first time in three years, the Texans first round pick is owned by them and not by the Dolphins.
Barring injury, each of these four starting QBs that were taken in the first two rounds of the 2020 draft - Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Hurts - will account for more total TDs this year than any of the five QBs taken in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft.
The record for fourth down conversions by a team in a season (20) will fall this year, and the total number of fourth down attempts and conversions league-wide will set new records for the Super Bowl era. Like the passing and receiving stats, this is not only about the extra game but more about the evolution of the NFL
Even with the extra game, no running back will run for 2,000 yards this year.
No games will be cancelled or even postponed or rescheduled due to COVID, even though plenty of players and coaches will miss games because of it.
The return of fans to the stands will have an impact. Last year, for the first time ever in the Super Bowl era, home teams posted a losing record (127-128-1). Expect home teams to win somewhere between 52 and 58% of games this year.
Since the Internet is forever, and we can’t ever pretend we didn’t make these calls, we will revisit these predictions with a season-ending column. Enjoy the season!
