The Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 6
See Ya……
(Posted October 19, 2021)
Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 6 Fantasy Recap. So what did the NFL do for an encore after a crazy explosion of points and the Ravens’ “Hollywood Ending” in OT in Week 5? It gave us THREE more OT games this week. We also got to see the Jaguars win a game for the first time in over a year. And in fantasy, thanks to a rash of early-season injuries, we got to see a whole bunch of backup RBs operating as lead backs. Most of them capitalized on the opportunity and produced in the process. Darrel Williams, in just his first game as the starter, scored more fantasy points than CEH was able to produce in any game so far this season. Khalil Herbert became the third Bears back this season to produce solid fantasy points while in the lead back role. Alex Collins produced. And on and on it went. And you wonder why NFL teams almost never take an RB in the first round any more.
So what’s in store for this week? Six teams - Buffalo, Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas, Jacksonville, Minnesota and Pittsburgh, are on a bye. That’s a LOT of fantasy points sitting on the sidelines - not only is it a big group of teams but most of them are loaded with fantasy stars. And there are lots of players out with injuries. So even though the waiver wire cupboard is a little bare this week, it will be busy as teams scramble to fill needs.
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Injuries From Week 6: The biggest injuries this week were Kareem Hunt (calf) and Kadarius Toney (ankle). Others getting hurt were Baker Mayfield (non-throwing shoulder - aggravation of an existing injury), OBJ, Parris Campbell, Antonio Gibson, Dawson Knox and Latavius Murray. Alex Collins got hurt near the end of the Sunday night game. We’ll do a rundown of injury status across the league in our Thursday start-sit column.
Usage Report - leaders through 6 weeks (on a per game basis):
Carries: 1. Henry 2. Kamara 3. Mixon 4. Chubb 5. Elliott
WR Targets: 1. Kupp 2. Adams 3. Ridley 4. DJ Moore 5. T. Hill
TE Targets: T1. Waller T1. Kelce 3. Hockenson 4. Andrews 5. Pitts
RB Targets: 1. N. Harris 2. Swift 3. C. Patterson* 4. Gaskin 5. Ekeler
*Not eligible at RB in all leagues
What We Learned - Week 6
Kyler: Shredding defenses from coast to coast
Here are some key week 6 fantasy takeaways, in no particular order:
I’ve said this a few times now - Jalen Hurts has a reliable rushing floor that makes him a QB1 in 12 team leagues. He scores for you, every week. It’s not pretty, and his throwing is erratic at best, but unless the Eagles bench him at some point, keep starting him unless you’ve got a top 5 option. He is the only QB with at least 20 fantasy points in every game so far this season.
Denver is splitting the work right down the middle between Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. This past Sunday: 11 carries and 3 catches for Williams, 10 carries and 3 catches for Gordon. Both ran for right around 50 yards. The fantasy community keeps trying to talk itself into Williams taking over, but there is no sign of it happening anytime soon.
Dak is having an MVP-caliber season, and so is Kyler, and all of the fantasy assets around both of them are benefitting, although not always each week. Both offenses have a lot of viable options, and Michael Gallup will be returning soon too.
Yes, the Steelers look a little better the last 2 weeks. But Seattle came in ranked dead last in total defense. That was hardly an inspiring performance. Big Ben’s limitations and a bad offensive line are going to serve as a ceiling on the rest of the playmakers on that team, which is a shame because they’ve got potential fantasy stars there.
I would be pretty hesitant to start Tyler Lockett while Russ is out. You’re going to keep starting D.K. Metcalf but don’t expect WR1 numbers.
Myles Gaskin’s half PPR points the last 3 weeks, rounded: .3, 31, 2. I can’t explain the usage, and I don’t know what to do with him any more than Brian Flores and his staff do. It’s a mess.
On the other end of the spectrum, what Derrick Henry is doing this season is unreal. I know that the NFL MVP will almost certainly be a QB once again this year. But Henry should be talked about more. And for fantasy he is matchup-proof, and there is no reason to think that he will lose effectiveness due to heavy usage. His ability to both run people over or outrun them for game-breaking plays is truly unique.
I miss the “Probable” tag. The “Questionable” tag can mean anything from “unlikely to play” to “almost certain to play,” and usually isn’t clarified until reports from teams start percolating on Sunday morning.
6 weeks in and I still would not start any of the rookie QBs unless I absolutely have to, AND it’s a plus matchup. None of them are offering consistent production, or particularly good fantasy totals, and there are just so many other safer options.
I didn’t realize that Sunday was Washed Up Running Back Day at M&T Bank Stadium, sponsored by AARP - a fun day where the first 10,000 fans get a gift certificate for 20% off on hip surgery. All 3 of Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman and Le’veon Bell plodded their way to a rushing TD to cap a scoring drive, as Lamar Jackson fantasy owners looked on in horror. Yeah, I miss the good old days of 2015 also, but come on. None of these 3 guys was even on the Ravens roster on Labor Day. Ty’son Williams can’t even dress for this team? Really?
Kadarius Toney is good, and once he is healthy and dominating snap shares he will be a fantasy star. He consistently makes people miss. I was at the game Sunday and saw it with my own eyes, before he went down with an injury.
Jonathan Taylor had 145 yards rushing on just 14 carries. Maybe Frank Reich doesn’t want to overwork him. But he is easily the Colts’ best weapon. The free Jonathan Taylor movement is going on 23 games and is picking up steam - his limited usage continues to confound.
I almost never talk about kickers, and part of the reason is that it is such a crapshoot. Through 6 weeks, the #1 kicker in fantasy is Tyler Bass, #2 is Matt Prater, #3 is Greg Joseph, and Harrison Butker is….#16. Last year’s #1 was Jason Sanders, who was a waiver wire pickup on fantasy. Sanders is #24 right now. I think you see where this is going.
The oldest and GOAT-est player in the NFL is the #1 overall scorer in fantasy through 6 weeks, and there is no reason to think that he will slow down this season. Play your Bucs. And yes, this is a cut and paste observation from week 5 - all I did was change “5” to “6”.
AB is back. He only played 49% of the snaps on Thursday night - they don’t need him to dominate as an alpha receiver in the way he did as a Steeler, but he creates mismatches and with the Bucs’ other weapons commanding attention, he is going to continue to have great opportunities for big plays when he is on the field.
Stafford to Kupp to one week off - just one. It was back in full force this week. That combo is going to hum all year.
Dak is Back
And some non-fantasy observations:
That was a big win for the Cardinals - without their head coach, their QB coach (and others), on a windy day on the road against a good team. They’re for real.
The AFC is looking pretty wide open, with only one 1 loss team (the Ravens).
NFL coaches have gotten the memo (and the accompanying analytics) about going for it on 4th down. 4th down attempts the last 3 years: 2019: 595, 2020: 658, 2021: 256, through 6 weeks.
And the surge of 4th down courage isn’t limited to the 4th quarter, or the middle of the field. In back to back weeks, Brandon Staley has gone for it on 4th down inside his own 30, in the 3rd quarter. Some might argue that coaches are getting reckless with this, but I have been a big proponent of going for it more on 4th down for a long time and in the vast majority of cases they’re making the right call, and the analytics back that up. The result is higher scoring games, and more fantasy points.
But one coach - the most innovative and successful coach of the last two decades and maybe the greatest NFL head coach of all time - apparently hasn’t gotten the memo. On Sunday, in OT, Bill Belichick inexplicably punted the ball to the Cowboys on 4th and 3 from his own 46. As you would expect, the Cowboys promptly marched down the field and scored to end the game. This wasn’t a fluke - just 2 weeks ago against Brady and the Bucs, Belichick sent Nick Folk out into the rain in the final minutes on a 4th and short to try a 56 yard FG- and the Pats didn’t see the ball again in that loss either. These were both obvious “got for it” situations in my opinion, which is hardly a bold take. Is the game passing the master by?
The NFL trade deadline is November 2. Keep an eye on how Tua plays the next 2 weeks. Miami still could blow it all up and take the risk on Deshaun Watson. As of now, Miami has little to show for all that high-end draft capital it amassed in the last 2 drafts.
GOAT of the Week: Derrick Henry. The Bills were the #2 ranked defense against the run coming in, and he still did his thing. Just another day at the office. And on his 76 yard TD run he was clocked at 21.8 mph, the fastest of any player this year (per ESPN Next Gen stats). Henry is the size of a big linebacker - how is this possible? You never know how long a running back will last, but over the last 3 seasons we have been watching one of the all-time greats at the position.
Goat of the week: Brian Flores. I’m not going to talk about how Miami lost this game, and the myriad of bad coaching decisions that helped make it happen, and I am a fan of this coach. But losing to the hapless Jaguars after building an early 10 point lead? This team is in free-fall.
Waiver Wire: As noted above, it’s a big bye week. For those needing an emergency fill-in at QB, Tua looked decent in his return from injury and the Dolphins host the Falcons this week. Matt Ryan is also a good bye-week pickup if he is available. Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater too.
If Nick Chubb can’t return this week, then the next man up for the Browns is D’Ernest Johnson and if you’re really needy, Demetric Felton should see work this week also. If Alex Collins didn’t get nabbed last week, grab him, although he is now also nicked up which might pave the way for Rashaad Penny who is due back from IR this week, so he is also worth considering. It is tough to recommend any Ravens RB, but if Latavius Murray misses time, Devonta Freeman figures to benefit the most and is worth adding for depth.
At receiver, Rashod Bateman looked good in his debut and figures to be the #2 WR even when Sammy Watkins returns. This team now throws it a lot just like everyone else, so he is a good add if you need WR depth. Same for Donovan Peoples-Jones, who is getting opportunity with all of the injuries on the Browns offense. If Marquez Callaway is available in your league, consider picking him up. Michael Thomas is still several weeks away and Deonte Harris is recovering from a hamstring injury. I don’t really know what to expect from T.Y. Hilton, but he could be a good speculative add with Parris Campbell going down with injury. If Sterling Shepard got dropped in your league, consider grabbing him as the revolving door of injuries in the GIants WR corps has him again being the lead guy for now.
At tight end, the top add is Zach Ertz, and Steelers rookie Pat Friermuth had a breakout game Sunday night and could be emerging as a decent option, at a position that’s more or less a fantasy wasteland. Ricky Seals-Jones is also an option.
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
Memo to DCs: Henry Ruggs is fast
The last time the Cardinals started 6-0 was 1974, when they were the St. Louis Cardinals. They finished 10-4 that year and won the NFC East. That’s right - the NFC East.
In his last 11 starts in prime time, Tom Brady’s team is 0-11 ATS.
Eagles’ running backs only had 33 first half carries through the team’s first 6 games.
At the same time, the criminally underused Miles Sanders has had positive yardage on 98.2% of his carries, which leads the NFL.
The only WRs with at least 5 catches in every game this season are Cooper Kupp, D.J. Moore and Justin Jefferson.
Dallas has scored at least 35 points in 4 straight - a franchise record.
T.J. Watt has a combined 22 takeaways (interceptions and forced fumbles) since the start of the 2018 season, which leads all players.
With his 35th win on Sunday, Lamar Jackson passed Dan Marino for most wins by a QB before turning 25.
After only turning the ball twice in his first 5 games (1 on a hail mary), Daniel Jones committed 4 turnovers against the Rams on Sunday. Coming into this season, Jones had committed 40 turnovers in his first 30 games.
The Jaguars were the first team in the Super Bowl era to not kick a single field goal through the first 5 games of a season. On Sunday in London they kicked 3 FGs, including 2 from beyond 50 yards in the last 4 minutes of the game that tied and then won the game.
The Patriots are 0-4 at home, which hasn’t happened since 1996. I might be exaggerating a little, but it felt like the Patriots only lost 4 home games through the entire 2010s.
Chargers kicker Tristan Vizcaino has already missed 5 PATs through 6 games (10 for 15). No kicker missed more than 6 PATs during the entire 2020 season.
Aaron Rodgers is now 22-5 against the Bears, including playoffs. And he is happy to tell Bears fans all about it.
The Cowboys win on Sunday was their 2,500th since 1960, most in the league. Rounding out the top 4 are the Packers, Chargers, and Patriots.
Since the start of the 2020 season, the receivers with the most catches of 40+ yards are Davante Adams and Henry Ruggs, tied with 8 each. Ruggs had 2 on Sunday.
Trevon Diggs has an INT in every game so far this year (7 total, in 6 games) - we will run this stat every week until it is not true: the Diggs brothers have each caught at least one pass in every game this season! And this week, they both scored a TD.
If the season ended today, the Eagles would have 3 of the top 11 picks and the Jets would have 2 of the top 10 picks in the 2022 draft.
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 7 Fantasy Preview!
DH
