Pigskin Papers Preview Week 6
Week 5: A Hollywood Ending
(Originally Posted October 14, 2021 - UPDATED for Injuries October 16)
Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 6 fantasy preview. I’ve caught my breath and regrouped after an insane Week 5 and I hope you have too. The scoring last week went through the roof, thanks largely to the Bucs, Saints, Chargers, Browns, Titans, Cowboys, Bills and Ravens. As it turned out, almost no lead was safe heading into Monday night, when lots of head-to-head matchups, including many where the lead seemed out of reach, flipped, thanks to (a) the Lamar-Andrews-Hollywood explosion and (b) every fantasy manager and every gambler’s least favorite word - overtime. Except of course when overtime helps them, in which case it is the gift that keeps on giving.
Anyway, the point is that Week 5 - culminating in the madness on Monday night - was an amusement park thrill ride and a reminder of why we all love this game so much. Does Week 6 have more of the same hyperdrive in store? Well, maybe. Justin Herbert and his Superchargers are headed to Baltimore to face Lamar and the Ravens...Yes, please!! We also have the Chiefs visiting the WFT, in a game featuring two abysmal defenses that have given up the most and second most fantasy points to QBs this year...I’ll have what she’s having, please!! And beyond that there are plenty of other opportunities for fantasy goodness this week, starting tonight with Tommy and the Bucs visiting Jalen and the Eagles. We do have the first byes of the season - ATL, NO, SF and the NYJ get this week off - and bye weeks tend to hamper scoring totals a bit. But with so many QBs lighting it up, I think the pinball machine scoring will continue. With all of these points to be had it’s critical to maximize your lineup to its full potential, and I am here to try to help with that.
So how did the Pigskin Papers’ “Rides and Fades” do last week? Very well, on the whole. We had some nice hits on some of our longer-shot Rides in Kareem Hunt, Damien Williams, Kadarius Toney and Emmanuel Sanders. The biggest miss was the Jaguars WR duo of Jones and Shenault, who basically took the week off as far as I can tell. A lot of our fades were also good calls, including among others our very consistent advice to avoid rookie QBs making one of their first few starts, which in this case was Trey Lance. Feel free to go back and check last week’s preview for more results. As always, we are offering full refunds for all the money you shelled out for our free advice. And this isn’t like that episode of Nathan For You where you have to climb a mountain and camp overnight to get the refund. Just ask.
***Before we dive into Week 5, a quick message about our site: This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly fantasy recap column posts each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
Let’s again start our weekly preview with the implied totals for all of the games. Here is the full slate, from highest to lowest:
55.5 - KC@WAS (will there be ANY defense played in this game?)
53.5 - BUF@TEN
51.5 - LAC@BAL,TB@PHI
49.5 - DAL@NE, AZ@CLE
47.5 - CIN@DET, LAR@NYG
46.5 - MIN@CAR
45.5 - MIAvsJAC (London)
45 - GB@CHI
44.5 - LV@DEN
42.5 - HOU@IND, SEA@PIT
Next, let’s look at some key team offensive and defensive statistics. Fantasy managers want to know how good a team is at running or passing the ball, and how easy or hard it is to run and pass on a defense. With 5 weeks of data, the sample size is big enough to be somewhat reliable. The offense rankings below are based on yardage, while the defense rankings are based on Fantasy Football Points Allowed (FFPA) to each position.
Top 5 offenses, rushing:
CLE, DAL, TEN, BAL, BUF
Bottom 5 offenses, rushing (from worst to 5th worst):
MIA, PIT, NYJ, LV, HOU
Top 5 offenses, passing:
TB, LAR, LAC, LV, KC
Bottom 5 offenses, passing (from worst to 5th worst):
CHI, NO, MIA, NYJ, HOU
5 toughest defenses, FFPA to RBs:
CAR, BUF, TEN, PIT, DAL
5 easiest defenses, FFPA to RBs (from easiest to 5th easiest):
DET, MIA, NYJ, SEA, JAC
5 toughest defenses, FFPA to QBs:
BUF, DEN, NO, NYJ, NE
5 easiest defenses, FFPA to QBs (from easiest to 5th easiest):
WAS, KC, IND, MIA, TB
5 toughest defenses, FFPA to WRs:
BUF, NYJ, LAC, LV, HOU
5 easiest defenses, FFPA to WRs (from worst to 5th worst):
TEN, PIT, IND, TB, WAS
5 toughest defenses, FFPA to TEs:
ARI, DEN, NE, TEN, CIN
5 easiest defenses, FFPA to TEs (from worst to 5th worst):
HOU, LAC, BAL, IND, KC
We can learn a lot from these statistics. It’s amazing how often Buffalo shows up at or near the top of a lot of these rankings - they have been dominant on both sides of the ball so far this year, and if you want more proof of that, they’ve outscored their opponents by a ridiculous 22 points per game. Two defenses that were supposed to be good ones - Miami and the WFT - have been decidedly bad. And in Miami’s case, their offense has also been terrible. Great combo! Maybe the return of Tua and a date with Jacksonville and its 20 game losing streak can get them going. The 2 teams that played in last year’s Super Bowl cannot stop the pass - but thankfully both of those teams are equipped to throw it a lot themselves, and outscore you in the process. And obviously there is a lot more we can glean from these numbers.
Injury Update - October 16
A lot of news broke late in the week. Here is a summary of the most fantasy-relevant news, and impact.:
Players declared OUT:
Russell Wilson (IR) - no surprise. Geno Smith gets his first start in 4 years. Stay away.
CMC - Chuba Hubbard gets another start and is a decent RB2 play, again
CEH - This one we knew from early in the week. Darrel Williams is a must-start this week.
Chris Carson - Alex Collins is in line to start but I have him as a Fade this week. Carson may be out for a while.
Nick Chubb - This was a bit of a surprise. Fire up Kareem Hunt as a top 5 play this week.
Damien Williams (COVID) - Khalil Herbert gets the start this week and should get plenty of work.
Saquon Barkley - Devontae Booker will start vs. the Rams - a flex at best for me - we have him as a Fade.
WRs: Devante Parker, Sammy Watkins, Kenny Golladay
Players expected to play:
Tua, Daniel Jones, Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook, Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, Rashod Bateman, Sterling Shepard,
Players who are truly Questionable to Play:
Damien Harris, Melvin Gordon, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, Mike Williams, T.J. Hockenson
Bringing the Hurt
Rides and Fades
Our Rides and Fades is an analysis of players we think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This is not intended to be a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, start all of your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning Mahomes, Henry, Adams, Kelce and other elite, top 3 options at their positions as “Rides” because, well, they aren’t ever in a position to overperform against very high expectations. Plus it’s pretty easy to say “Start Derrick Henry” and be right all the time, but there is little value to you, the reader, in doing that. We can’t talk about every player, but we try to hit on a bunch of them. While this column is intended primarily for season-long play, it should also be useful for DFS formats.
Each week, I’m going to give you a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. Since the idea is comparing players to expectations, these are the rules: the Ride of the Week MUST be ranked outside of the top 4 (QB, TE), top 6 (RB) or top 8 (WR) consensus .5 PPR rankings for the week. So the Ride of the Week is never going to be any of the 4 guys mentioned above. Again, that would be too easy! The Fade of the week MUST be ranked inside the top 12 (QB, TE) or 18 (RB) or 24 (WR), and the Sleeper of the Week MUST be ranked outside the top 16 (QB, TE), 24 (RB) or 36 (WR). It’s my site, so I make the rules. Here we go, the week 4 Rides and Fades:
A rookie QB Ride???
QB: Trying to find overvalued and undervalued players at QB each week is kind of silly at this point. The position boasts incredible football talent that translates into elite fantasy production, and most of the top guys are fairly matchup-proof. Even without Russell Wilson, there are 10 stud QBs that you’re starting every week if they’re on your roster: Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Brady, Herbert, Prescott, Rodgers, Stafford, and Hurts. I like them all this week - what’s not to like? Ride them all and let’s not waste too much time talking about them. I’ll just mention 3 of the lower-ranked ones as Rides:
Matt Stafford is ranked #10 at QB this week and I like him to outperform that against a Giants’ defense that has given multiple passing TDs in every game but one so far this season, and is ranked near the bottom in FFPA to QBs.
Justin Herbert is ranked near the bottom of the top 10 again this week and I think he won’t be scared of the Ravens’ defense and can outproduce that in a game with shootout potential - he is my QB Ride of the Week.
And I like Jalen Hurts and his dual-threat capabilities against the woeful Tampa Bay defense - this could be his best fantasy performance yet as a pro.
But let’s move down the rankings where I might actually be able to help you with tougher decisions:
Trevor Lawrence gets a Miami defense that’s been terrible against everything - they rank 28th in FFPA to QBs, having yielded over 1500 passing yards and 12 TD passes so far this year. Plus Lawrence has been cutting down on his mistakes.
Taylor Heinicke is playing the Chiefs and that is really all I need to say - ride him. That’s the worst defense in football, is the second most generous in allowing FFPA to QBs, and the WFT will need to score in the 30s to even have a chance in this one.
I also like Joe Burrow to keep it going against a Detroit team that’s not as bad as you think, but assuming he can talk loud enough to call signals, I think he can exploit them with his weapons.
My QB Sleeper of the week is Teddy Bridgewater, playing at home against a Raiders defense that can be had. For the first time this year, I like Big Ben to put up some good numbers this week, in a game that I think will be very one-sided.
And finally, I almost put Tua in here, but I am not even sure he will play. If he does, I do like him as a cheap option in DFS against a Jaguar defense that he should be able to exploit.
Fades:
I’m going to keep fading Ryan Tannehill until he has both of his WRs back and healthy - why mess with success? Also, the matchup this week is bad as he is facing a Bills’ defense that has been downright stingy to opposing QBs. They have only allowed 5 passing TDs and the Bills and Panthers are the only teams to have yielded less than 1,000 passing yards this season.
I also don’t particularly like Derek Carr at Denver - that’s a good defense in a hostile environment and I think the Raiders are still going to be dealing with distractions.
I’m also fading Sam Darnold against the VIkings, who are playing pretty well on defense the last few weeks, while Darnold has started to regress into some bad habits. He is the QB Fade of the Week.
I’m staying away from Baker Mayfield hosting the Cardinals - I think they will try to control that game with a lot of rushing to keep Kyler and friends off the field. And other than Lawrence, who has a very favorable matchup this week, I’m still fading all of the other rookie QBs until further notice. There are too many better and safer options to choose from.
RB
Najee: This is the Week
The Rides:
My RB Ride of the Week is James Robinson, who has 3 TDs over his last 2 games, is coming off a 100 yard game, and is going up against a Miami defense that’s given up the second most fantasy points to RBs, including a whopping 8 TDs. No brainer.
And in the same game I like Myles Gaskin to outperform his RB25 ranking this week as I think he will again be heavily involved in the passing game and should also get more carries in a game that should be competitive. Ride him.
I like Darrel Williams A LOT this week against the WFT - he should see plenty of work, is efficient at the goal line (more so than CEH) and the WFT have allowed a whopping 6 receiving TDs to RBs already this year - a weakness in coverage that Patrick Mahomes will look to exploit.
And let’s fire up Darrell Henderson again - he is running very well, he is again ranked outside the top 10 at the position, and he is going up against a Giants defense that ranks 25th in FFPA to RBs, and that could be overly focused on trying to stop big plays in the passing game.
The Steelers have struggled mightily to run the ball, but that has not stopped Najee Harris from scoring lots of fantasy points (he is a top 10 RB in both full and half PPR), thanks to his passing game usage. I like him to finally be effective both running and receiving this week, against an overmatched Seattle defense that is 4th worst in FFPA to RBs, plus with Russell Wilson not playing I think Pittsburgh will have possession of the ball a lot in this one. I like him for a top 5 RB finish this week.
A few other RBs who I am riding this week (vs. their consensus rankings): Javonte Williams vs. the Raiders (I think this is the week he starts to emerge as the leader of that backfield), Antonio Gibson, and if you’re desperate because of the bye week or injuries, also J.D. McKissic, vs. the Chiefs, Damien Williams vs. Green Bay [UPDATE - he is on the COVID list and OUT for this game], Latavius Murray against a vulnerable Chargers run defense that just got gashed by the Browns, and once again, Leonard Fournette (at the Eagles), who has taken over the Tampa backfield and continues to outperform expectations.
The Fades:
Let’s see, who are the Bucs playing this week? Oh yes, the Eagles, and the game is tonight. I got burned fading Myles Gaskin vs. Tampa last week, but he only had 5 carries and did all of his damage in the passing game. Miles Sanders is nonetheless still a fade for me this week against this tough run defense, as he averages less than 10 carries per game as it is, plus he yields too much passing down work to Kenneth Gainwell.
I don’t like Alex Collins (or Chris Carson if he tries to play) against a tough Steeler front and especially without the accompanying threat of Russell Wilson’s arm and legs to open things up. [UPDATE - Carson has been declared OUT for this game]
My RB fade of the week is Dalvin Cook, who is ranked inside the top 15 this week. I think he will play, but will be limited and won’t get enough usage to finish as a top 15 RB. [UPDATE - Cook is expected to play, workload is unclear]
Damien Harris is banged up, the Pats have struggled to establish a consistent running game, and the Cowboys are actually pretty tough against the run (5th best in FPPA to RBs) - easy fade. [UPDATE - Williams is a GTD. If he can’t go, Rhamondre Stevenson would likely start, but is also a Fade].
Jonathan Taylor is a talent, and the matchup with the Texans isn’t bad, but he is ranked as the RB3 this week and with two other backs involved, I just don’t see him getting enough work to perform to that ranking - start him of course, but don’t expect a top 5 week from him until he starts to dominate touches.
A few more fades - Devontae Booker against a good Rams defense, in a game where the Giants will likely be throwing a lot, and both James Connor and Chase Edmonds at Cleveland (I know, I know, Austin Ekeler got 3 TD on them last week, but I think this week, at home, they go back to being a very stout run defense). Mark Ingram is an every week fade for me. And finally, I’d like to have a word with all of you Derrick Henry owners. Look, I know you’re feeling great at either 5-0 or 4-1, and you’re used to getting an average of around 130 yards and 1.5 TDs every week. And you know that I would never make Henry a fade, but this week he is the consensus #1 ranked RB. Against a Bills defense that has yielded the second fewest FFPA to RBs, and a Bills team that has led at halftime in 14 straight games and is winning games by an average of 3 touchdowns, I just don’t envision him finishing at the top of the RB scoring this week. Play him of course, but this might be the week where his usage gets game-scripted down significantly, and where he is just human instead of superhuman.
WR
Rides:
Let’s start with tonight’s game. De’Vonta Smith gets to run routes against a Tampa secondary that has already allowed 1,000 yards and 7 TDs to WRs in 5 games - he is an easy ride for me. As for the very gifted Tampa receivers, this week they are all ranked between 14 and 20, which tells me that the experts don’t know how to differentiate between them, or what to do with them. And neither do I, so here is my suggestion: If you have one of them, play him every week and understand that you’re going to get some great weeks, some good weeks, and some weeks where your guy is the odd man out. If you try to guess the down weeks, or try to chase points, you’re going to short yourself and you’ll end up missing a big game - which happened to lots of AB owners last week. And I like the matchup against the Eagles for all 3 of them, so play them and hope.
I’m riding both Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson (both ranked in the teens this week) against a vulnerable Seattle secondary (8th most FPPA to WRs) in a game that I think the Steelers will dominate.
Robert Woods finally broke out last week but is ranked outside the top 20 this week. I see the Giants worrying more about Cooper Kupp, and Woods getting a bunch of chunk plays again, so ride him.
Terry McLaurin figures to see and catch a boatload of targets against the woeful KC secondary - he could easily be a top 5 WR this week. [UPDATE - McLaurin has a hamstring injury and is a GTD. If he does play he may not be 100%]
Keenan Allen is ranked as the WR20 this week and has become a bit of a forgotten man but I think the Ravens will focus on taking away the deep shots to Mike Williams, opening things up for Allen who I think will see a lot of targets in what figures to be a high scoring game.
Davis Mills had a great game last week, and while he might come crashing back down to earth, this week the opposing defense (IND) is not as tough. So give me Brandin Cooks and his 35% target share, and at his surprising ranking of WR 26 let’s make him the WR Sleeper of the Week.
Another sleeper I like is Rondale Moore who is ranked outside the top 40 this week. I think his usage will keep going up, at the expense of Kirk and Green, as the Cardinals find more ways to get the talented rookie the ball.
I also like both Jaylen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown as sleepers, to see decent volume this week.
And give me Michael Pittman, who has emerged as the clear #1 in Indy and I don’t think that changes whenever T.Y. Hilton returns. Ride him.
And finally, let’s go back to the well with Emmanuel Sanders, who is still being ranked in the 30s each week. Yes, a Stefon Diggs game is coming, but this team has found a true #2 WR and Josh Allen is finding him for big plays.
Fades:
D.K. Metcalf is a stud WR but I don’t like the matchup or the situation with Geno Smith at QB, and his ranking is way too high for me this week - he is my WR Fade of the Week. I also don’t like Tyler Lockett this week, as I think the Seahawks will really struggle against this defense, and will be at a huge disadvantage in terms of time of possession.
I’m also going to fade OBJ again - it keeps working. Same for Allen Robinson and Robbie Anderson - they’re weekly fades until we see something. [UPDATE - Robinson is a GTD]
A.J. Brown is supremely talented and I think the TItans will need to be throwing, but I think he will see a lot of Tre’Davious White and at his ranking, he is a fade for me.
I don’t like Henry Ruggs to do much at Denver.
And with Tee Higgins back, I think Tyler Boyd may be the odd man out most weeks, other than in games where the Bengals need to throw a ton and against Detroit, I don’t see that.
TE
Rides:
With Dallas Goedert out, and against a weak Tampa pass defense, I like Zach Ertz to produce this week. He is ranked outside the top 10 which I think is too low. Ride him.
I like Noah Fant this week against a Vegas defense that ranks in the bottom third against the position - he is my TE Ride of the Week.
Speaking of rides, just keep riding Dawson Knox, who is on fire, and I will ride Mike Gesicki this week - Miami is banged up at WR and the Jaguars have already yielded 4 TDs to opposing TEs.
I think Tyler Higbee should have success against the Giants, so he is also a ride.
My TE sleeper of the Week is Mo Ali-Cox, who is ranked way down at 20 but goes up against the Texans, who rank dead last in FFPA to TEs.
Fades:
We said this last week, and the week before - finding a TE Fade of the Week is tough, as most of the top 12 at the position need to be started just about every week. This week I will go with T.J. Hockenson, who is ranked inside the top 5. Teams have been taking him away and daring Jared Goff to beat them somewhere else, and I think the Bengals will follow suit. [UPDATE - Hockenson is questionable to play].
Dalton Schultz has creeped into the top 10 at the position but this week he goes up against the Patriots who have only allowed 108 yards and 1 TD to the position all year. I’m fading him at his lofty ranking.
I’m also fading David Njoku, who is coming off a monster game but had not done much all year before that, and now he faces a Cardinals defense that boasts the fewest FPPA to tight ends.
And at this point if you’re stuck with Robert Tonyan as your TE1 (as I am), then I think you have to look elsewhere - outside of 1 good game where he caught 3 balls and scored, he has been invisible, with less than 10 yards in his other 4 starts.
That’s a wrap. Good luck to all in Week 6. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly fantasy recap.
DH
