Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 7
Look out, Seattle
(Posted October 21, 2021, Updated for injury news, Saturday, October 23, 2021)
Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 7 fantasy preview. Wow, it’s week 7 already. Seems like just yesterday that I was overdrafting Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen. Seems like just yesterday that Cordarelle Patterson wasn’t on a single fantasy footballer’s radar. And so it goes in fantasy football. There is still a lot of season left, but for those whose teams are off to slow starts, it’s kind of now or never.
Pundits are calling this week Bye-mageddon. I think the word armageddon is a little strong for fantasy football, but we are all fanatics here, right? And I do get the point - there are 6 teams on bye this week (Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh). When you look at that list, you see a lot of top-tier fantasy assets that will be sitting this one out. Throw in all the injuries (especially at RB), and for a lot of teams, fielding a decent lineup for Week 7 is going to be a major challenge. Hopefully, the waiver wire is helping managers who are stuck. As for who to play, I’m going to try to help you with that.
So how did the Pigskin Papers’ “Rides and Fades” do last week? Once again, pretty well on the whole. This column tries to be expansive and I make a lot of calls each week, so there will be multiple hits and misses. Would I like to have a few calls back from last week? Absolutely. And especially that “Ride” on Myles Gaskin, because I started him myself, after missing his 27 points the week before when he was a Fade for me. But all in all the good very much outweighed the bad, and especially at RB with multiple hits (Fournette, N. Harris, Darrel Williams, Henderson, L. Murray and McKissic), and I will try to keep that going this week. Feel free to go back and look at the weekly preview column for Week 6 to look at all of the predictions from last week - the good, the bad, and the indifferent.
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Let’s again start our weekly preview with the implied totals for all of the games. Below is the full slate, from highest to lowest. The totals for this week are lower than what we’ve seen so far this year, which reflects that there are some very high scoring teams on bye. Only two games have implied totals over 50. In each of the last 2 weeks there have been at least 5.
56.5 - KC@TEN (tied for highest total all year)
50.5 - DET@LAR
49 - PHI@LV
48.5 - WAS@GB
47.5 - ATL@MIA, CIN@BAL, HOU@ARI, CHI@TB
44.5 - IND@SF
43.5 - CAR@NYG, NO@SEA
42.5 - NYJ@NE, DEN@CLE
Next, let’s look at some key team offensive and defensive statistics. Fantasy managers want to know how good a team is at running or passing the ball, and how easy or hard it is to run and pass on a defense. With 6 weeks of data, the sample size is big enough to be fairly reliable. All of the rankings below are based on yardage totals. When we get into the matchups in the Rides and Fades, we will also look at statistics for how NFL defenses have done in allowing fantasy points to different positions.
Top 5 offenses, rushing:
CLE, DAL, TEN, BAL, BUF (note - no change from last week)
Bottom 5 offenses, rushing (from worst to 5th worst):
MIA, NYJ, LV, PIT, TB
Top 5 offenses, passing:
TB, KC, LV, LAR, DAL
Bottom 5 offenses, passing (from worst to 5th worst):
CHI, NO, NYJ, HOU, MIA
Top 5 defenses, rushing:
TB, NO, BAL, DEN, DAL
Bottom 5 defenses, rushing (from worst to 5th worst):
LAC, HOU, SEA, NYG, PHI
Top 5 defenses, passing:
BUF, CAR, LAC, GB, PHI
Bottom 5 defenses, passing (from worst to 5th worst):
WAS, JAX, DAL, MIA, SEA
Injury Watch (UPDATED Saturday, October 23, 2021, 3 p.m.) - Note - I’m generally not mentioning players on IR unless they were just put on it, or are designated to return from it):
QB: Jimmy G wil be ack under center for the 49ers which is good news for their WRs, RBs and TEs. Trey Lance is OUT for the game.
***It’s not an injury, but we have trade rumors swirling again regarding Deshaun Watson, and also Tua, and the teams being mentioned along with Miami and Houston are Washington and Denver. Who knows how real any of this is. Stay tuned on that, and remember that Twitter - wonderful social media platform that it is - isn’t always telling you things that are confirmed facts.
RB: CMC is not only OUT again, but now he is on IR, so it is Chuba Hubbard for another few weeks, at least. Damien Williams is still on the COVID-19 list and if he can’t return, Khalil Herbert would get another start for the Bears. Saquon Barkley is OUT. Alex Collins is questionable to play, and Rashaad Penny is eligible to come off of IR. Latavius Murray is OUT for the Ravens, meaning more work for Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell, and maybe we’ll have a Ty’Son Williams sighting. Both Antonio Gibson and D. Swift are expected to play, although Gibson could be limited. Ja’Mychal Hasty is back from IR for the 49ers.
WR&TE: This entire section could be about the Giants’ pass catcher. Toney and Golladay are OUT, while the law firm of Slayton, Shepard, Engram and Ross are all questionable, but mostly expected to play. OUT: AB, Gronk, Curtis Samuel, Will Fuller, Sammy Watkins, Terrance Marshall and Jimmy Graham, not that anyone was starting him. Questionable: TY Hilton and Devante Parker. Expected to play: Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown and Julio Jones, and TJ Hockenson.
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, start all of your studs and especially in a week with so many byes, and fewer good choices. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning Mahomes, Henry, Adams, Kelce or other top 3 options at their positions as “Rides” because, well, they aren’t ever in a position to overperform against very high expectations. Plus it’s pretty easy to say “Start Derrick Henry and Patrick Mahomes” and be right all the time, but there is little value to you, the reader, in doing that. We can’t talk about every player, but we try to hit on a bunch of them. While this column is intended primarily for season-long play, it should also be useful for DFS formats.
Each week, I’m going to give you a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE. Since the idea here is comparing players to expectations, the general rules are that the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who is ranked really low anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper from lower down the ranks. Here we go - crack your favorite beverage, grab a snack, and enjoy the Week 4 Rides and Fades:
QB: Warning! Cut and pasted from last week: Trying to find overvalued and undervalued players at QB each week is kind of silly at this point. The position boasts incredible football talent that translates into elite fantasy production, and most of the top guys are fairly matchup-proof. Even without Russell Wilson, there are 10 stud QBs that you’re starting every week if they’re on your roster: Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Brady, Prescott, Herbert, Rodgers, Stafford, and Hurts. Well this week 3 of those elite “Big Ten” options are on bye so lots of you might be looking for a QB from outside that group. I won’t say too much about this group other than start all of them if you have them.
The WFT? Rodger That!
Of the ten, I think Aaron Rodgers is going to light up a terrible WFT defense that ranks dead last against the pass, and has allowed the most fantasy points to both QBs and WRs. Rodgers is the #7 ranked QB this week - at home, against that defense? He should be ranked in the top 3 and is my QB Ride of the Week - this one seems too easy.
From the bottom of the top 10 rankings (again, this is about outperforming expectations), I also like Matt Stafford’s matchup at home against a Lions defense that can be had and that especially struggles vs. WRs, where the Rams have some elite talent.
Further down, there are some decent options for those of you in need this week. I like a rested Matt Ryan, with all of his weapons, against a reeling Miami team that is struggling everywhere, including a defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to both QBs and WRs. Ryan is outside the top 10 this week and I like him for a top 10 finish.
I also like Derek Carr to keep it going at home against an Eagles defense that’s been struggling against the pass the last 4 weeks.
Could this be the week that Ryan Tannehill finally delivers the kind of fantasy performance we got used to the last 2 years? Enter the KC defense, a generous donor to opposing QBs everywhere. Only Washington yields more fantasy points to the position. And while it is true that Derrick Henry could again go for something like 160 and 3, for the first time this year I am riding Tannehill.
I’m also Ok starting Tua, with trade rumors swirling around him. The Falcons are a middling defense and this could be a desperation, kitchen sink game for Miami. He aired it out big time last week and I think he will do so again.
And finally, my QB Sleeper of the Week is Jameis Winston at Seattle, if you need him. Yes, I know they could run it a lot and the attempts might be low. But I don’t think Taysom Hill will be interfering with his red zone trips, and this is a bad defense folks.
Fades:
I don’t like either Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones in the Giants-Panthers game. Both started the season hot but are regressing of late, and turning the ball over, and I’m not sure this is the game where either of them gets well.
I don’t like Jared Goff in his return to L.A., against that defense and a coaching staff that knows him too well.
Once again I will fade every single one of the rookie QBs. So far, I haven’t gotten burned once with this advice - it’s been money in the bank. One of these weeks, one of them will erupt with a top 5 fantasy performance but it hasn’t happened yet - I’m not even sure if any of them has had a top 10 fantasy performance yet. I’m fine being a week late on that.
Carson Wentz has been playing really well but he might be down a couple of weapons and I don’t love the matchup in San Francisco against a well-rested 49ers front 7 that brings a lot of heat - I’ll fade him.
I’m really struggling to find a QB who is ranked in the top 10 this week to make my Fade of the Week. I’ll go with Joe Burrow, reluctantly. He has been playing very good football, and he has some serious weapons. But the Ravens confused, frustrated, and pretty much shut down another outstanding sophomore QB at home last week and there is a decent chance they can do it again.
RB
I hit on most of my RB calls last week so let’s see if I can repeat.
I like Damien Harris this week - he ran well and had a long, angry TD run against the Jets in the first meeting, and he went over 100 yards and also scored last week against a pretty tough Dallas run D. I think the Pats want to establish him more - he just needs to hang onto the ball.
I know it’s an obvious name but why is Alvin Kamara the RB 5 this week against Seattle? I have no idea if Taysom Hill will be back for this one - I like Kamara less any time he is available. But either way, the Saints are going to have the ball a lot in this one, and this defense gets gashed on the ground - they rank 30th against the run, and have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to RBs. Kamara is my RB Ride of the week as I expect him to finish in the top 2 or 3 at the position.
I’m sticking with Darrell Henderson for a third straight week, although with his ranking creeping up each week he is finally being correctly valued. He is good, his offense is good, and the game scripts are positive.
Darrel Williams gets another ride from me. I’m not saying he is a better RB than CEH, but he produces better fantasy points in this offense because he is a better goal line back than the smallish CEH.
Once again, if you can start Cordarrelle Patterson as an RB, do so - the value is excellent.
A few other RBs who I like to outperform their rankings this week: Josh Jacobs vs. the Eagles, Chuba Hubbard at the Giants, and Lenny Fournette against the Bears.
In what should be the blowout of the week, I think both Chase Edmonds and James Connor are viable starts vs. the Texans, and especially with all the byes - Ride them with confidence.
My RB Sleeper of the Week is J.D. McKissic. FIrst off, Antonio Gibson might be limited. Second, the WFT figures to be trailing in this one and he should get plenty of targets. He is especially viable in full PPR.
And if you are desperate for an RB2 or flex, I think Rhamondre Stevenson is a sneaky play this week. He caught 3 passes last week and I think the Patriots want to use him more in the James White role, while relegating Brandon Bolden back to his main role as a special teamer. Pus Bolden is banged up. I could see Stevenson getting 10-12 touches this week and especially if the Pats are salting away a lead and don’t want to overwork Harris.
The Fades:
I don’t know what to do with Myles Gaskin. His last 3 weeks have been maddening. It’s the opposite of a Schitt sandwich because the really good game was in the middle of two stinkers. It’s like two pieces of stale, moldy white bread around a tasty filet mignon. It’s been that kind of sandwich, whatever it’s called. Anyway, I have to fade him - it’s too risky.
I’m fading the entire banged up Seattle RB corps against a very tough Saints defense that’s top 5 vs. the run and among the stingiest to opposing RBs.
I will do the same with whoever suits up for the Bears against that elite Tampa Bay run defense.
I don’t like Devontae Booker against a Panthers defense that’s allowed the 7th fewest points to opposing RBs.
I am low on Elijah Mitchell against the Colts. Yes - I think he will dominate touches again, and I also think the return of a competent thrower at QB will help him and the rest of that offense, but the Colts have allowed the third fewest points to RBs, and that’s true despite having already faced Derrick Henry. Fade Mitchell unless you’re truly stuck.
Do I have to keep saying fade Mark Ingram? Fade Mark Ingram.
This one is tough because he is a stud, but I am making Jonathan Taylor, who is ranked as the RB 3 this week, the RB Fade of the Week. The 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs so far this year and I think Taylor won’t get enough touches to allow for a top 10 finish - remember that this is about evaluation vs. expectations. Start Taylor as you always would, but as they say, temper those expectations.
WR
Rides:
A Chief Concern This Week
A.J. Brown is the 10th ranked WR this week. While battling food poisoning Brown erupted in the second half last week (no pun intended) after doing nothing in the first half, and really he hadn’t done much the entire season, mostly due to injuries. The Chiefs are one of the worst pass defenses in the league - This has breakout game written all over it and Brown is our WR Ride of the Week.
And speaking of breakouts, it’s long past time for Calvin Ridley to remind everyone of how talented he is, and going against the struggling Miami pass D will help - he is a Ride for me and especially with a ranking near the bottom of the top 10.
With Jimmy G. back under center, I like Deebo Samuel to pick it back up where he left off - he’s a Ride. {WEATHER UPDATE - bad weather (rain, heavy winds) are forecast for this game, which could impact passing]
Jaylen Waddle sneaks just inside the top 20 of the rankings this week after his 2 TD performance last week but I still don’t think that’s high enough - I like him for another big volume game this week.
Last week the Ravens faced the worst run defense in the league and accordingly they pounded the ball. Against the Bengals I see them going back to a potent air attack and that’s good news for Marquise Brown, who still gets ranked down in the low teens even though he has been a top 10 WR for much of this season. Ride him.
I like Courtland Sutton (also ranked in the low teens) to make some big plays and do well tonight, regardless of who plays QB for the Broncos. He is a Ride too.
A couple of nice PPR specials for you - Sterling Shepard should be peppered with targets vs. the Panthers as he is the main healthy option for Daniel Jones, and Jakobi Meyers should be busy against the Jets. Oh, and Brandin Cooks will once again see a ton of targets and should be started - I am not sure what he will be able to do with them against a tough Cardinals secondary but the target share is enormous week in and week out and the volume will be there.
It has gotten next to impossible to predict what will happen with the Tampa receivers week to week but this feels like a Chris Godwin resurgence game. Or maybe it’s Mike Evans’s turn. Or AB again. OK, if I have to pick one, let’s go with the forgotten man of late, Godwin. [UPDATE - AB is OUT - we like Godwin even more].
My WR Sleeper of the Week is Marquez Callaway - see what I wrote above about Winston, and the generosity of the Seahawks pass defense. Callaway is the only fully healthy, dangerous WR on the Saints right now. He is coming off a 2-TD game before the bye and this week he has good upside as the WR #37.
Fades:
Warning! Here is another cut and paste from last week: D.K. Metcalf is a stud WR but I don’t like the matchup or the situation with Geno Smith at QB, and his ranking is way too high for me this week - he is my WR Fade of the Week. I also don’t like Tyler Lockett this week, as I think the Seahawks will really struggle against this defense, and will be at a huge disadvantage in terms of time of possession. It worked once, so why not just run it again? The Saints defense is tough.
Corey Davis, welcome to J.C. Jackson Island, or whatever they’re calling it. It’s no joke.
I’m also going to fade OBJ again - it keeps working but with Case Keenum under center I wonder if something will change for the better.
Allen Robinson should finally come out of his slumber against a very generous and banged up Bucs secondary that’s been torched repeatedly and has given up the 5th most points allowed to WRs, but until I see signs of life I’m going to keep fading him.
Henry Ruggs has started to emerge the last few weeks but has been very dependent on the big play and I think the Eagles might use Darius Slay to try to take that away. He is in the hit or miss category for me this week and I’m guessing it’s a miss.
I love Terry McLaurin’s talent and grit, but I think this might be a game where his QB really struggles in a hostile stadium, against a Packers D that’s given up the 4th fewest fantasy points to both QBs and WRs. I don’t think he will perform up to expectations (he is ranked inside the top 10 this week).
I don't particularly like either of Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd this week in a fairly tough matchup at the Ravens, who are starting to get their defensive swagger back.
TE
A Lone Bright Spot in South Beach
I’ve hated talking about this position all year and this week it’s even worse with all the byes. OK, here goes. Rides:
Mike Gesicki is basically being used as a WR, as he almost never lines up as an inline TE. Keep riding him as he is now a reliable top 5 option at the position, every week.
Hunter Henry has emerged as the preferred TE option for Mac Jones, and this week he faces a Jets defense that’s been pretty generous to the position.
Dallas Goedart is coming off of COVID, which is a bit of a concern, but he has 2 things working in his favor this week: the Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points to the position and Zach Ertz was traded away. Let’s make him the TE Ride of the Week.
Speaking of Ertz, it’s a little hard to trust a guy who has only been in town for a week but the Texans have been very welcoming to TEs, allowing the third most fantasy points to the position. I think the Cards will try to involve Ertz so let’s ride him.
Two longer shots for this week if you’re a little stuck: Ricky Seals-Jones for the WFT and Cole Kmet for the Bears.
And finally, let’s go contrarian with the TE Sleeper of the Week. Robert Tonyan has become a forgotten man in the Packers offense, to the point that he is barely ranked in the top 15 at the position. But I think this is the week that Aaron Rodgers, while doing whatever he wants against a terrible WFT defense, finds him in the end zone again.
Fades - This section is always tough because of the lack of depth at the position - if you have a decent (top 12) option, you’re almost always starting him.
Evan Engram is talented, but even with all the WR injuries on the Giants he is often invisible in this offense. Keep him on the bench.
I think the Mo Alie-Cox run of success ends this weekend in San Francisco, against the #1 defense against tight ends.
Jonnu Smith has been getting the scraps behind Hunter Henry, so I will keep fading him.
C.J. Uzomah hasn’t done a lot outside of one big game, where Tee Higgins wasn’t in the lineup - keep fading him.
Finding a TE Fade of the Week is nearly impossible - as I said, if you have a top 12 option you’re starting him. So you’re starting T.J. Hockenson. But my concern is that he isn’t fully healthy, and I think the Rams will focus on taking him away, so he is my reluctant TE Fade of the Week.
That’s a wrap. Good luck to all in Week 7. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly fantasy recap.
DH
