The Pigskin Papers Postscript Week 5: The Changing of the Guard
The Bills: Leapfrogging the NFL
(Posted October 12, 2021)
Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 5 Fantasy Recap. Catch your breath everyone - Week 5 was a nonstop fantasy thrill ride, with more total fantasy points scored, and more massive individual performances, than any of the prior 4 weeks. Scoring systems vary, but in basic half PPR scoring, 22 players had at least 24 fantasy points this week, the most so far this season.
Meanwhile...Did you notice something strange in the air this weekend? On Sunday afternoon, in a battle of two of the best teams in the conference, the Chargers outlasted the Browns in a shootout, 47-42 - another affirmation that both of those teams are emerging as legitimate, top-tier AFC contenders. On Sunday night, in a rematch of last year’s AFC title game, the Bills thoroughly dismantled the Chiefs at Arrowhead, 38-20, in a statement game that made very clear who the best and most complete team in the NFL is right now. The Bills are obliterating the competition. And I don’t even know what to say about the Ravens’ comeback on Monday night, but they’re showing incredible resilience and grit, and somehow have kept the pace at 4-1. No team pulls more games out of its ass than Baltimore.Over the last 3 seasons, the Chiefs have been the best team in football, and Patrick Mahomes has been the best player in football. That hasn’t been true every week, or maybe even every season, but look across the last 3 years in total, and it’s hard to argue otherwise. The Chiefs have made it to the Super Bowl in each of the last 2 seasons. But it’s hard to stay on that perch for long.
Three weeks ago, the Ravens beat the Chiefs in a thriller, and two weeks ago, the upstart Chargers toppled the Chiefs in a close game at Arrowhead. Throw in the results of the games involving the AFC’s top teams this past weekend and it’s clear to this observer that right now, the Chiefs are no longer the best team in the NFL or even the AFC (Buffalo is, in both cases), and they aren’t even the second or third best team in the conference. Their offense is creative and talented and can still erupt and score in bunches, and the trio of Mahomes-Hill-Kelce, should never be underestimated. But their defense is almost non-existent, which forces the offense to try to be perfect, which in turn results in too many turnovers. And even in fantasy, the gap between Mahomes and his closest young pursuers (Allen, Murray, Jackson, Herbert and Prescott, all of whom are balling out this year), not to mention his oldest pursuer, has closed. Yup, that’s what was in the wind over the weekend. That, and the ongoing sagas of misbehavior by two Head Coaches, plus some misadventures in placekicking. More on all of this later.
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Injuries: Russell Wilson, who has never missed a start in his 10 year career, suffered a serious finger injury that’s going to sideline him for multiple weeks. The Giants lost 3 major pieces on Sunday, with severity still TBD - Daniel Jones (concussion), Saquon Barkley (ankle), and Kenny Golladay (knee). Joe Burrow had to go to the hospital after his game with a throat contusion, but thankfully, he is apparently going to be fine. Others who left games with injuries: Taysom Hill (concussion), CEH (knee - headed to IR), JuJu (shoulder - headed to IR), Damien Harris (ribs/chest), Deonte Harris (hamstring).
Usage Report - leaders through 5 weeks:
Carries: Henry (142), Kamara (94), Mixon (93), Chubb (90), Elliott (85)
WR Targets (targets-catches): Adams (61-42), Kupp (56-37), K. Allen (53-34), Samuel (52-31), M. Williams (51-31), T. Hill (51-37)
TE Targets (targets - catches): Waller (48-28), Kelce (42-30), Andrews (38-29), Pitts (36-24), Gesicki (34-22)
RB Targets (targets-caches): N. Harris (39-28), Swift (35-29), C. Patterson* (31-25), C. Edmonds (26-23), Gaskin (26-22)
*Not eligible at RB in all leagues
What We Learned - Week 5
Still GOATing after all these years
Here are some key week 5 fantasy takeaways, in no particular order:
Derrick Henry is the best and most consistent non-QB in fantasy football. Even BEFORE his latest monster performance on Sunday, he was on pace to become the first player ever to run for 1,500 yards and score 15 TDs in 3 straight seasons. Henry also has the most touches all time through the first 5 games of a season (156), just ahead of O.J. Simpson (154).
The oldest and GOAT-est player in the NFL is the #1 overall scorer in fantasy through 5 weeks, and there is no reason to think that he will slow down this season. Play your Bucs.
The Chargers are the kings of fantasy mountain right now - through 5 weeks, Justin Herbert is the QB5, Austin Ekeler is the RB2, and Mike Williams is the WR1. Missing out on most of the fun is Keenan Allen, although he is seeing plenty of targets and should eventually get his. Ride this offense.
Trey Lance is the most recent reminder that succeeding at QB in the NFL is not easy and takes time, and that rookie QBs can’t be counted on to be fantasy producers right away. I urged caution with Lance this past week, and after watching him the last 2 weeks I will continue to fade him - he doesn’t look ready, yet. The 49er WRs and TEs, and even RBs, are going to be harder to count on while he gets up the curve.
The rookie QBs are slowly getting better, but are still very hard to trust for fantasy purposes. This was the first week that all 5 first-round rookie QBs started, and the best performance by a rookie QB this week belonged to...Davis Mills, who easily had the best game of the 6, and was the only one with a QBR above 100. And he did it against a Bill Belichick defense, on the road, coming off a game where he threw 0 TDs and 4 INTs.
Are the Ravens kidding? 4 of their 5 games have been decided at the buzzer. No lead is safe against them, Lamar shakes off turnovers as well as any QB, and he can now beat you with both his arm and his legs, meaning the knock on him about not being able to lead comebacks is cooked - this year, you can fire up his main pass catchers with confidence.
We haven’t seen a rookie WR burst onto the scene the way Ja’Marr Chase has since Randy Moss. Through the first 5 games of his career, Chase has more PPR points than any WR in history besides Moss, and he has joined Moss and Calvin Ridley as the only WRs to score 5+ TDs in his first 5 NFL games.
And more rookie stuff - the narrative through 4 weeks was that Kyle Pitts was a borderline bust, but with the Falcons missing both starting WRs, Pitts finally had his breakout game (9-119-1). But here is the thing - he has the MOST receiving yards (308) by a TE through the first 5 games of a career - which shows how rare it is for rookie TEs to make a splash.
Chase and Pitts are both only 21 years old. If you have them in a dynasty league, enjoy.
Sam Darnold came crashing back to earth this week, with a 3 INT game - which isn’t that surprising (and he threw 2 picks last week), but it will be very interesting to see what we get from him going forward.
I said it last week - Justin Herbert is elite. He is going to be fun to watch, and fantasy platinum, for a long time.
Another thing I said last week is that the vaunted WFT defense is a pushover - and it continues to be - don’t be scared to go against it, at any position.
Dawson Knox is a legit low-end TE1 right now. And so is Dalton Schultz.
Jalen Hurts is a good fantasy QB - his rushing floor almost guarantees that, and he is going to give you borderline top 10 numbers most weeks.
I guess the Dolphins figured out that Myles Gaskin is a lot more dynamic than Malcolm Brown.
Welcome to the 2021 season, Mark Andrews.
Kadarius Toney is fun to watch - shifty, sudden, and he makes guys miss. He can’t be throwing punches every week, but with the injuries to the Giants’ other WRs he is taking full advantage of his opportunity, and showcasing his skillset.
Geno Smith looked surprisingly good on Thursday night when he was pressed into duty (until his game-ending INT), but when teams have time to prepare for him, I would not expect a ton of success for him, or for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
I suspect that in a lot of matchups, no lead was safe last night. Between Lamar, Hollywood, Andrews, Pittman and Taylor, I’m sure there were a lot of surprising comebacks and finishes. Don’t you love MNF? And don’t you love overtime, and overtime coin tosses, even more?
And some non-fantasy observations:
Bolts of Lightning
What did the U.K. do to deserve the Jets, Falcons, Dolphins and Jaguars, who are a combined 4-16? Is this still about taxation without representation?
That was a big win for the Cardinals - who proved they can win a game without scoring a lot of points.
You have to wonder how much the controversies surrounding Urban Meyer and Jon Gruden affected those 2 teams this week - both were pretty lifeless - and if Gruden’s resignation will enable the Raiders to get back on track.
The only time on Monday night that the Bills weren’t rolling the Chiefs defense was during a lightning delay - seriously, that defense is lost. Their DVOA through 5 games is 29.6% - the 7th worst of all time.
Is there anything more fun than the Chargers? They’re living up to the lightning bolt logo on their helmets. 4th and 2 from your own 24 early in the 3rd quarter? No problem. Need to score a TD every time you get the ball? No problem. Need to put together a long drive to score, or deliver a fast strike? Yeah, they can do both really well. You wouldn’t know it from this weekend, but the Browns’ defense is actually pretty good.
Well, maybe the Ravens are more fun than the Chargers - their five games have been truly insane.
The Jaguars have lost 20 straight games.The 26 game losing streak that started the Buccaneers' existence is in sight….
Laar Jackson: precision passer
GOAT of the Week: How do you choose between so many monster performances? I’m giving it to Lamar Jackson, because he led a comeback from a 19 point deficit, and accounted for over 500 yards of offense. The final tally: 37-43 (86%), 442, 4 TDs and 0 INTs, 14 carries for 62 yards, and 2 passing 2-point conversions. Lamar became the first player to ever throw for 400 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs and rush for 50 yards in a game. He either tried to pass or ran it himself on 59 of the Ravens’ 70 snaps. This was an incredible performance.
Goat of the week: Jon Gruden. C’mon, man.
Waiver Wire: This is not a great week for pickups. The top target for me is Darrel Williams, followed by Kadarius Toney. Williams has always been effective when they’ve gotten him involved, especially at the goal line, and CEH is out for at least 3 weeks. And I think Toney stays highly involved even when the other WRs return. Devontae Booker and Rhamondre Stevenson also look to be in line to start (or at least see an expanded role) for a game or two, and are worth a look. I would not go after Geno Smith unless I was truly desperate - Carson Wentz is a better option. And always check for guys who are eligible to come back from IR soon , like Jarvis Landry, Michael Gallup and Jerry Jeudy. If their owners moved on, scoop them up if you need them.
***NOTE - these teams are on BYE in week 6: SF, ATL, NO, NYJ***
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
Through 5 weeks, there have been 19 games decided with a game winning score in the final minute of regulation, or OT (the most ever)
There has been at least one OT game in each of the first 5 weeks, which has only happened once before
The Lions are the first team ever to lose 2 games in a season on walk-off FGs from beyond 50 yards - and it happened in only 5 weeks
The Browns scored 42 points, had 532 yards of offense, committed 0 turnovers….and lost. No team had ever before lost an NFL game (including playoffs) scoring 40 points, gaining 500 yards, and committing 0 turnovers.
The end of the Bengals-Packers game was surreal - consider:
Mason Crosby, after making 26 straight FGs, missed 3 in a row that were potential game winners (he made his next attempt to end the game)
In a ten minute span, Crosby and Evan McPhershon missed 5 straight FGs that each could have won the game
One of McPherson’s misses (in OT) hit the flag on the top of the upright - McPherson celebrated the kick for a good 10 seconds before realizing it had missed
With the win, the Packers are 15-5 in their last 20 road games
Matt Lafleur is now 30-7 (regular season) as a head coach
There were 27 missed kicks this week - 14 FGs and 13 PATs (the 13 missed PATs in one week is the most in the Super Bowl era)
More adventures in kicking - the 2021 PAT rate of a little more than 92% is the lowest since 1979
The Bills have taken a lead into halftime in 14 straight games
Justin Herbert is the first QB to get to 500 completions inside of his first 20 starts
The Ravens record-tying streak of 100 yard rushing games ended on Monday night
Herbert and Baker Mayfield combined to throw 75 passes, with 6 TDs and 0 INTS
Matt Ryan got his 5,000th completion this week, and is the second fastest QB to get to that number (Brees)
Sam Darnold came into week 5 with 4 straight 300 yards games (streak snapped) - he had 4 300 yard games total in the first 3 years of his career (sorry readers, I missed this one last week)
The Bears’ offense has gone 3 straight games amassing more rushing yards than passing yards.
Kyler Murray is the 3rd player in NFL history with 1,500 passing yards and a 75% (or higher) completion percentage through the first 5 games of a season (P. Manning, 2013, Brees, 2018)
Trevon Diggs has an INT in every game so far this year (6 total, in 5 games) - we will run this stat every week until it is not true: the Diggs brothers have each caught at least one pass in every game this season!
Charger safety Derwin James was credited with 14 total tackles...in the first half vs. the Browns (he ended the game with 17 total)
The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games
The 3 AFC teams that are tied for the best record in the conference (4-1: Ravens, Chargers and Bills) have all beaten the 2-3 Chiefs
Since losing to the Steelers in Week 1, the Bills have outscored their last 4 opponents 156-41
If the season ended today, 6 of the top 10 draft slots in the 2022 draft would be assigned to teams in the AFC East and South (note: some of these picks have been traded away)
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 6 Fantasy Preview!
DH
