Pigskin Papers Preview Week 5

Dak is back!

(Posted October 7, 2021, Updated for Injuries Saturday, October 9, 9 a.m. EDT)

Welcome to Week 5. Week 4 had it all - The Brady Bowl, The Jets and Giants finally winning their first games (in OT, and only a few minutes apart), Cordarelle Patterson continuing his logic-defying season, a shameful video from an Ohio bar that went viral, the Bills turning an NFL contest into an early season ‘Bama game, 6 rookie QBs assuming the mantle of “starter” just 4 weeks into the season, Joe Burrow winning at the buzzer, the Cardinals emerging as the only undefeated team after the first 4 weeks (a 50:1 ticket - if you cashed it, well played), and much, much more. And here comes Week 5. As we pass the quarter pole of the season, it’s time to get serious, folks.

The Fades did very well last week, but less so the Rides, which were decent but not great. A concerning development - there were not that many injuries last week, but several prominent players who got hurt were on the Rides list. Logan Thomas was the TE Ride of the Week, Joe Mixon was the RB Ride of the Week, and David Montgomery was a Ride. Not one of them finished his game intact. I don’t believe in jinxes, but please, if a bunch of your players are listed as Rides this week, don’t stop reading.

Hopefully you listened to the column last week when I gave you these Fades: Ryan Tannehill, Mark Ingram, Damien Harris, Myles Gaskin, Ronald Jones (bailed out slightly by a late TD, but that backfield belongs to Fournette), DeAndre Hopkins, Robby Anderson, Christian Kirk, Kyle Pitts, and more. Hopefully you ignored this column’s advice about fading Saquon Barkley in a tough matchup. Nobody is perfect...I will keep trying to give you lineup advice that is rooted in sound logic and analysis, to help you win your matchups. And if not, I’m happy to give you your money back. All of it.

***Before we dive into Week 5, a quick message about our site: This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly fantasy recap column posts each Tuesday. If you like what you’re finding here, please bookmark the site and come back often. You can also follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***

Moving on. As you know, I like to start with some metrics and analytics that can help frame an analysis of specific matchups. Let’s again start with the implied totals for all of the games - Fantasy managers love high scoring games where the big name players can feast, and Vegas is decent at predicting them. Here is the full slate, from highest totals to lowest:

56.5 - BUF@KC (AFC Championship rematch, highest total of the year so far)

54.5 - LAR@SEA (note - every Rams game has gone OVER through 4 weeks)

52.5 - NYG@DAL

50.5 - SF@ARI, GB@CIN

49.5 - DET@MIN

48.5 - CLE@LAC, TEN@JAC

47.5 - MIA@TB

46.5 - IND@BAL, NYJ@ATL (London)

45    - CHI@LV

44.5 - NOS@WAS, PHI@CAR

39.5 - NE@HOU, DEN@PIT (NOTE - few implied totals this year have been UNDER 40)

Now let’s take a look at some key team statistics. Fantasy managers want to know how good a team is at running or passing the ball, and how easy or hard it is to run and pass on a defense. We now have 4 weeks of data - still not a big sample size, but enough to be pretty useful. This week, the offense rankings are again based on yardage, while the defense rankings are based on fantasy points allowed to each position.

Top 5 offenses, rushing:

CLE, DAL, BAL, TEN, BUF

Bottom 5 offenses, rushing (from worst to 5th worst):

PIT, NE, TB, NYJ, MIA

Top 5 offenses, passing:

TB, LV, ARI, LAR, KC

Bottom 5 offenses, passing (from worst to 5th worst):

CHI, NO, MIA, HOU, NYJ

5 toughest defenses, FPTS allowed to RBs:

DEN, CLE, BUF, CAR, DAL

5 easiest defenses, FPTS allowed to RBs (from easiest to 5th easiest):

DET, NYJ, SEA, MIA, KC

5 toughest defenses, FPTS allowed to QBs:

BUF, DEN, NE, NYJ, LAC

5 easiest defenses, FPTS allowed to QBs (from easiest to 5th easiest):

WAS, ATL, KC, TB, DAL

5 toughest defenses, FPTS allowed to WRs:

BUF, LAC, NYJ, NE, LV

5 easiest defenses, FPTS allowed to WRs (from worst to 5th worst):

TEN, TB, CHI, DAL, PIT

5 toughest defenses, FPTS allowed to TEs:

TEN, NE, ARI, DEN, NO

5 easiest defenses, FPTS allowed to TEs (from worst to 5th worst):

BAL, HOU, DAL, LAC, NYG

We can glean plenty from this, and will be referencing these stats frequently as we go through the Rides and Fades. A few things stand out - the Bills have been nasty on defense, pretty much across the board. You can’t run on the Bucs but they can’t stop the pass, and the Bucs can air it out, so they should be playing lots of high scoring games. Miami’s offense is anemic in all phases, and the Jets aren’t much better. And the rookie QBs are not lighting it up as passers.

Injury Update (Saturday, October 9, 9 a.m. EDT): QB: Trey Lance and Justin Fields will be starting this week (I still recommend caution with both, although Lance is tempting if you need him). Tua is still a week away. Teddy Bridgewater is in the concussion protocol, and will start if he can get cleared by game time. Russell Wilson tore tendors in his finger on TNF, and will be out 6-8 weeks. RB: CMC is listed as doubtful, so it now looks like next week for him - another start for Chuba Hubbard. David Montgomery is out for multiple weeks. Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gibson, Chase Edmonds, Joe Mixon and D’Andre Swift are all listed as questionable (and have varying chances to play - check for updates ad then game day inactives on all of them), as is Zeke Elliott who is expected to play. Dalvin Cook (also listed as questionable) will likely keep playing through his ankle injury - not ideal for his owners, as he only had 11 touches last week while playing through it. Elijah Mitchell is set to return this week. WR: Calvin Ridley is out this week, dealing with a personal matter. Will Fuller is on IR (shocker, I know), and so is D.J. Chark. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are both out again with hamstring injuries - which bumps up both Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. Tee Higgins is set to return this week. A.J. Brown is also set to return, but Julio Jones is out this week. Amari Cooper, Devante Parker, and Courtland Sutton are all listed as questionable. Rashod Bateman could make his NFL debut this week. TE: Gronk and Logan Thomas are both out this week, George Kittle is doubtful this week, and T.J. Hockenson is questionable to play.

Rides and Fades

RB Ride of the Week

Our Rides and Fades represent our analysis of players we think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This is not intended to be a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, start all of your studs. You likely won’t ever see us mentioning Mahomes, Henry, Adams, Kelce and other elite, top 3 options at their positions as “Rides” because, well, they aren’t ever in a position to overperform against very high expectations. We can’t talk about every player, but we try to hit on a bunch of them. While this column is intended primarily for season-long play, it should also be useful for DFS formats.

Each week, we are going to give you a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at each key position. Since the idea is comparing players to expectations, these are the rules: the Ride of the Week has to be ranked outside of the top 4 (QB, TE), top 6 (RB) or top 8 (WR) consensus .5 PPR rankings for the week. So the Ride of the Week is never going to be any of the 4 guys mentioned above. That would be too easy! The Fade of the week has to be ranked inside the top 12 (QB, TE) or 18 (RB) or 24 (WR), and the Sleeper of the Week has to be ranked outside the top 16 (QB, TE), 24 (RB) or 36 (WR). It’s our site, so we make the rules. Are you all still OK with this? Good. Here we go, the week 4 Rides and Fades:

QB: Justin Herbert is ranked outside the top 10 this week, at home against a stingy Browns defense. I’ll ride him again this week - in 15 of his 18 career starts he has either 300+ yards passing and/or 3+ TDs. He is without question already an elite QB, plus he has good weapons. As a Dolphins fan this KILLS me. Did Miami do something akin to taking Ken O’Brien while leaving Dan Marino on the board? Time will tell, but what it’s telling us so far is pretty painful for Dolphin fans. I could barely get through MNF. OK, I need to get back to the column before I stab myself in the eye with my pen. I’m also riding Kirk Cousins again - he had his first bad game of the year last week but this is a get right game against a weak Lions defense that he owned last year (7 total TDs in 2 games) - let’s make him the QB Ride of the Week. Dak Prescott gets a Giants defense that’s a little worse than middle of the pack in terms of FFPTs allowed to QBs, and yes, his attempts are way down (3 straight games with fewer than 30), but he is playing at an elite level and will put up numbers again in a game that could be surprisingly high scoring. Lamar Jackson is suddenly throwing a lot, but he can also run when he needs to and I think the Ravens get back to their identity a bit more this week - I’ll ride Lamar too. Matt Stafford was decent last week in a loss, but now he gets a Seattle defense that has given up 6 TD passes the last two weeks - Ride, please. If you’re looking for streamers or sleepers from lower down in the rankings at QB, it’s hard to know what to expect from the Jaguars this week with all the distractions swarming around them, but Trevor Lawrence is coming off a good performance that showed real improvement and now he gets to throw against a bad Titans defense that is in the bottom half of FFPTs allowed to QBs and dead last in FPPTs allowed to WRs. He is our QB Sleeper of the Week. Other lower ranked QBs I like this week are Daniel Jones at Dallas, in what easily could be a shootout, Sam Darnold to keep it going against an Eagles D that just gave up 5 passing TDs to Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow at home against the Packers.

That’s a lot of QBs that I like (and there are more - it’s a good week for QBs) - so who am I fading? Well, Matt Ryan finally woke up, and threw 4 TDs last week and now he gets the Jets in London while we are all waking up - but the Jets have been surprisingly stingy in terms of FPPTs allowed to both QBs and WRs - they’re top 5 in both categories so we will fade Ryan, who hasn’t exactly inspired confidence this year. Speaking of Ryan, Mr. Tannehill is another QB who has a matchup that seems like a good one (the Jaguars), but who are his WRs? He is again a Fade for us, and likely will be until the WR cavalry comes. Trey Lance is the QB 13 this week and while I like him to do OK or even pretty well in this game, there will be rookie mistakes and I doubt he finishes in the top 15 for the week. Big Ben is a Fade until further notice, and I don’t like the erratic Baker Mayfield at all against the Chargers, who have allowed the 5th fewest FPPTs to QBs. And what clown made up these stupid rules about the QB Fade of the week having to be inside the top 12? I like all of the top 12 QBs this week, but will reluctantly pick Russell Wilson, because he is playing a good Rams defense that has to be smarting after Kyler Murray had his way with them last week.

RB

The Rides: Darrell Henderson is ranked outside the top 10 at the position this week but I like him a lot against a Seahawks defense that’s been very generous to RBs (30th in FPPTs allowed), not to mention that he played 90% of the snaps last week upon his return from a rib injury. He’s apparently fine. Let’s make him the RB Ride of the Week. Damien Harris had 4 carries for -4 yards last week. Really, he did. But that was against the Bucs, and against the Texans, I think the Pats will look to establish the run and stick with it. We are riding Harris. It is always risky to try to predict how Bruce Aians will deploy his RBs, Leonard Fournette is emerging as the clear lead dog, plus he gets the passing down work with Gio Bernard out, and against a Miami defense that’s 29th against the RB position, in a game where the Bucs will almost certainly be playing with a second half lead, sign me up. His consensus ranking of RB 23 this week seems very low. I like Damien Williams this week - he has no real competition for work, is good in the passing game, and the matchup with Vegas is a decent one. And I am always hesitant with the Bills’ RB tandem - their RBs scored the fewest fantasy points of any team last year, but against KC’s swiss cheese run defense, I like Zach Moss to keep it going, and at a weekly ranking outside the top 25 he is our RB Sleeper of the week. Cordarelle Patterson is ranked outside the top 20 RBs - if he is position-eligible in your league, what’s not to like given the value at this position? His usage is freaky - he has touched the ball on 46% of his snaps, but he plays less than half the snaps - I don’t think these trends and the related production can continue but against the Jets, I like him as a Ride. Kareem Hunt is hot and he is a decent play at the Chargers - he is ranked in the lower teens this week and I like him to do enough in the passing game to make him a Ride at that ranking - the Browns could easily be playing from behind where Hunt gets more work. And if you are truly desperate for RB help, Kenneth Gainwell is getting plenty of targets in the passing game as is Branden Bolden, so they’re playable in full PPR. And if Elijah Mitchell returns I still like him to lead that backfield, and the matchup is not bad - plus with Lance starting ,the 49er RBs should have an easier time seeing open running lanes. And finally, if you’re looking for sleepers, you could do worse than Samaje Perine, who is ranked outside the top 30 this week. I think he finishes better than that if Mixon is indeed out, and Alex Collins could be your starting RB for the Seahawks on Thursday night [UPDATE - Carson is officially out, and Collins is playable if you need him, in a fairly tough matchup].

Scordarelle

The Fades: It seems almost unfair to mention Myles Gaskin after last week, and now he goes against Tampa’s smothering run defense, but don’t you dare start him or Malcolm Brown. Miles Sanders is your newest milk carton player - just 9 carries total the last 2 weeks - until he is found again, you have to fade him. CEH has been much more involved and productive the past 2 weeks, but against a Buffalo defense that ranks 3rd in FPPTs allowed to RBs, and in a game where the Chiefs figure to be throwing an awful lot, I am reluctantly not only fading CEH but at his ranking of RB 14, I am making him my RB Fade of the Week. I don’t like either of the 2 Bronco RBs at the Steelers - they’re splitting the work down the middle, that defense is still decent, and I think this game is going to be very low scoring - fade ‘em. I know that Saquon Barkley had his way with the New Orleans defense last week, but this week Antonio Gibson is ranked just outside the top 10 and I don’t see him approaching that finish so I’m fading him at that ranking. Trey Sermon has not done that much with his golden opportunity to dominate the 49ers backfield reps and with Elijah Mitchell more likely to return this week, I’m fading Sermon. I’ll continue to fade Mark Ingram every week - week 1 was against the Jaguars. 

WR  

Rides: Nobody has pinballed more for me between Ride and Fade than Corey Davis, but the Jets passing game is as matchup-dependent as it comes, and they‘ve had some brutal matchups and some cake ones. Atlanta is a nice big slab of New York Cheesecake, Zach Wilson loves throwing to Davis, and against a Falcons D that has already yielded 7 TDs to the WR position, that’s a Ride and especially at his weekly ranking of WR25. I was all set to be cautious with Ja'Marr Chase, but with Jaire Alexander out for this contest, I’m moving him into Ride territory. You know I’m high on Kirk Cousins, and his best target is Justin Jefferson and the duo is heating up - Jefferson is ranked outside the top 5 WRs this week and he is the WR Ride of the Week. Jakobi Meyers is a good NFL wide receiver and he is entering some really bizarro world territory - he has more than 100 career catches and 1,000 career yards and he hasn't had a TD catch since college - those are NFL records, by the way. He is ranked just outside the top 30 this week and at that number I am riding him for the second straight week - this could be the week he spikes the football in the part of the field that doesn’t draw a taunting penalty. Don't be shy about firing up Emmanuel Sanders - he has at least 6 targets in every game this year, and the Bills will need to throw in this one. You know I’m a little cautious with the circus that’s enveloping the Jaguars, but against that bad Titans secondary, and without D.J. Chark, I’m riding both Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones. They’re both ranked outside the top 25, and Shenault is outside the top 36 and is our WR Sleeper of the Week. Another sleeper I like is Jaylen Waddle, who is ranked just inside the top 40 this week and in a game where Miami should be trailing against the worst-ranked pass defense in the league, he should see a boatload of targets. And if Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are out again, Kadarius Toney is an intriguing sleeper as well, but I would only play him if they are both out. 

Fades - D.K. Metcalf is a stud WR with a great QB, and if you have him you’re starting him, but he got the Jalen Ramsey treatment twice last season and failed to amass 100 yards total in those 2 games - he is ranked inside the top 10 for the week and that makes him our WR Fade of the Week. We keep waiting on Calvin Ridley, and the targets are there but not the yards and TDs, and against a Jets secondary that has only allowed 2 TDs to WRs and ranks #3 in fewest FPPTs allowed to WRs, I’m fading Ridley and his top 10 ranking this week. [UPDATE - Ridley has been declared OUT for this week, due to a personal matter]. OBJ is also a fade for me - the Chargers have surrendered the 2nd fewest FPPTs to WRs and Baker is struggling to put the ball in his zip code. In a game that figures to be a very low scoring battle of bad QB play, I am fading all of JuJu, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick. Robbie Anderson has vanished, so he is again a fade, and in the same game I’m nervous about Devonta Smith against a Panthers secondary that’s been tough on WRs. And finally, Allen Robinson is a weekly Fade until he has a decent game - right now he is not startable, but his weekly rankings don’t reflect that.

Movin’ On Up

TE

Let’s start with TEs who are hot coming in and who I like to stay hot this week. Mike Gesicki has been very busy the last 2 weeks, with a line of 15-143-1, and yet he is the #8 ranked TE this week. Miami is going to be playing from behind and the Bucs aren’t good against the pass, nor are they good against the position (27th in FPPTs allowed to TEs) - he is an easy call for me as the TE Ride of the Week. Dalton Schultz has an even better line than Gesicki the last 2 weeks (12-138-3), and now he gets a Giants defense that has allowed 4 TDs to TEs and ranks near the bottom in FPPTs allowed to the position - another easy Ride. Dawson Knox is also red-hot lately and is ranked near the bottom of the top 10 - I like him to be closer to top 5 this week, in a game that has the highest implied total of the year so far. Ride him. It’s never easy to find a TE Sleeper of the Week, but let’s go with Mo Alie-Cox, who is ranked outside the top 25 at the position. Carson Wentz fed him 2 TD passes last week - not something that will repeat, and he shares snaps at the position - but still, the Ravens have allowed the most FPPTs to TEs. 

Fades: We said this last week - finding a TE Fade of the Week is also tough, as most of the top 12 at the position needs to be started just about every week. And once again we will go with Kyle Pitts, because we still have not seen it, and the Jets have yet to allow a TD to the position. George Kittle is the #4 ranked fantasy TE this week [UPDATE - with Calvin Ridley declared out for this game, I feel better about starting Pitts, and if you have him, you likely don’t have a better option]. I’m sorry - great player, great blocker and pass-catcher, but they just don’t involve him enough and he is not the fantasy superstar he is portrayed to be. He doesn’t have a TD yet this season, and as we pointed out in the preseason he has never had more than 5 TDs in a season. There are a number of guys ranked behind him this week that I would play over him and that makes him a Fade at his elite ranking. Robert Tonyan is very TD-dependent. He has 1 or 2 catches in 3 of his 4 starts this year. That kind of inconsistency makes him a Fade for me. 

You got all of that? Good. Good luck to all in Week 5. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly fantasy recap, where we will once again tell you how the Rides and Fades kicked ass and took names.

DH