The Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 4
The Cheetah is on the Loose
(Posted October 5, 2021)
Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 4 Fantasy Recap. The sports world survived the Brady bowl, a/k/a the Seven Ring Circus, a/k/a the Revenge game, and the NFL will now return you to your regularly scheduled season. In the end, the game was well-played and close throughout, and lived up to the hype. Brady didn’t throw a TD and only led his team into the end zone once, and his throwing was a bit erratic in the rain, but he didn’t turn the ball over either and escaped with yet another win in Gillette Stadium. Same old Brady.
One quick (OK, not that quick) observation about the SNF game, and then we will get to the fantasy recap: This game was a collision of one of the greatest coaching minds and one of the greatest on-field minds in NFL history. But two late decisions (one by each) left this observer scratching his head. With a little over 2 minutes left, score 17-16 New England, the Bucs were already in FG range and the Pats held only 1 timeout. Tampa was moving the ball well at that point, with a mix of runs and short passes. Brady knew that the Pats had been mostly playing man coverage on his 3 WRs all night and saw that AB’s man came up slightly gimpy - he went after him on both 2nd and 3rd down with end zone throws that fell incomplete, and so the Pats kicked a go-ahead FG with 2 minutes still left on the clock. Brady knows that in this type of game the last team with the ball usually wins. He knows how to milk the clock so that the winning kick launches as time expires. The smart play would have been to keep throwing short, or even running, to try to get one more first down that would have effectively ended the game. But the Pats got the ball back with plenty of time left to retake the lead, and drove a bit past midfield. Ultimately, they faced a 4th and 3 at the Tampa Bay 38 with one minute left and the Bucs still holding timeouts. On came the field goal unit, in a downpour, to try a FG from 56 yards out. The kick doinked, and it was game over. I know Nick Folk had not missed a FG in over a year and that the Pats struggled on third downs all night - but it was pouring and it was at the edge of his range. Plus, even if the kick was good, Brady would get the ball back with a minute left, holding timeouts, and needing only a FG to win. Hasn't Belichick seen that movie enough times when Brady was his QB? That decision was baffling. Oh well, as Bill would say, on to Cincinnati.
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OK, back to the fantasy recap, as promised.
Injuries: Thankfully, injuries were not too bad this week. Key players who left games with injuries: QBs Teddy Bridegewater and Jimmy Garoppolo, RBs Joe Mixon and David Montgomery, WRs Will Fuller and D.J. Chark, TE Logan Thomas, and PK Robbie Gould, who was active but then hurt his groin in pregame warmups - which was a swift kick to the groin of anyone who started him.
Usage Report - leaders through 4 weeks:
Carries: Henry (113), Mixon (83), Kamara (78), Chubb (69), Montgomery (69)
WR Targets (targets-catches): Kupp (46-30), Adams (45-31), Allen (44-28), D.J. Moore (43-30), D. Samuel (42-28), Ridley (42-27)
TE Targets (targets - catches): Waller (40-24), Kelce (32-24), Hockenson (30-22), Kittle (29-19), Gesicki (27-18)
RB Targets (targets-caches): N. Harris (34-26), Swift (29-23), C. Patterson* (22-18), C. Edmonds (22-20), J. McNichols (21-18), Ekeler (20-18)
*Not eligible at RB in all leagues
What We Learned - Week 4
Here are some key week 4 fantasy takeaways, in no particular order:
DJ Moore - ETA: Now
We said it during the preseason and have been saying it ever since: Taysom Hill is good for the Saints in real football, and bad for everyone around him in fantasy football. His continued red zone usage vultures each of Kamara, Jameis, and the pass-catchers.
DJ Moore and Deebo Samuel have arrived as legit WR1s, along with Cooper Kupp. At some point, you’ve got to adjust your expectations from preseason rankings and ADP, based on repeated results. We’re at that point. They’re all at or near the top of the WR leaders in targets, catches, yards and TDs. Moore leads the NFL with 8 catches of 20+ yards. The only potential concern we have going forward is with Deebo, as we need to see what this offense looks like with a new, rookie QB.
Ja’Marr Chase is a player. Expect solid WR2 performance (at worst) the rest of the way.
The 5 first round rookie QBs had a better showing this week. Trevor Lawrence made impressive throws and cut down on his mistakes, and had a good outing against a pretty good defense. Justin Fields was much improved - and he pushed the ball downfield, leading all QBs in average depth of target (ADOT) in Week 4. Zach Wilson also played better, guiding his team to a win with clutch throws. Trey Lance was pressed into duty and showed his dual-threat skills. And Mac Jones was the better thrower on Sunday night, at one point completing 19 straight passes. But with all of them you need to proceed cautiously - the improved play didn’t translate to big fantasy points and you should start one of them only if you don’t have a better option (which should be rare, given the quality and depth at QB), and only against softer defenses. All of them will have growing pains and their share of turnovers.
The Dolphins' offense is a mess, and I don’t know if the return of Tua in two weeks will make that much of a difference. Mike Gesicki is the only piece of this offense I would start right now.
Big Ben did nothing this week to change my view, expressed last week, that he is 2018-2019 Eli in a different uniform.This doesn’t really count as something we learned in Week 4. Sorry, folks.
After not seeing a target in his first game, Austin Ekeler has 20 targets over the last 3 weeks, which is the kind of passing game usage that was expected of him, and that makes him a true plug-and-play RB1.
The Pigskin Papers liked OBJ this past week - he was a WR “Ride” in the Week 4 Fantasy Preview. And if Mayfield could have put the football within ten yards of him he would have had 2 easy TDs. Hopefully this was an aberration, and Baker won’t kill his fantasy value like this on a regular basis. Those were TERRIBLE throws.
The WFT Defense is not elite - it has been shredded the last two weeks. Don’t be scared to start players against them.
You can’t run on the Bucs, but you sure can pass on them. Sit your RBs and play your passing game pieces against them. As for the other team that played in last year’s Super Bowl, you can run AND pass on the Chiefs, at will. Since you need to score in bunches to beat them, start ‘em all against the Chiefs when you can. If these teams can’t fix their defenses, I doubt we will see either of them in SB LVI.
Dak, Kyler and Brady are all spreading the ball around very effectively, to a big group of talented targets. That’s great for their teams, but it’s frustrating for fantasy owners and especially when those teams don’t get involved in shootouts where everyone gets theirs. DeAndre Hopkins’s target share is 18% this season, down from 29% last year. Chris Godwin’s target share has been in the low teens each of the last 3 weeks. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb combined for 5 catches for 82 yards on Sunday, on 8 combined targets. It’s hard to know which pass-catchers to count on for big games in these three offenses, week to week.
Someone has finally figured out how to get the most out of Cordarelle Patterson, who right now is the RB2 behind Derrick Henry, or the WR 4. Through the first 8 years of his career he had 10 receiving TDs, and he already has 4 this season. I have no idea if this can keep up but for now he is an every week starter, and the waiver wire player of the year.
And some non-fantasy observations:
The Jets and Giants each won their first game of the season, in OT. Really. Both of these teams are playing hard for their coaches. And I want Jabril Peppers calling the coin toss for me every time, and it’s not close.
Surprisingly, only one team remains unbeaten after 4 games, and more surprisingly, it’s…the Cardinals? Come again? They were 50:1 to be the last unbeaten team - if you’re cashing that ticket, well played. The ‘72 Dolphins guys aren’t going to be sweating it this season. Not that I don’t like this team, but the champagne is on ice.
Round 1 of the NFC west slugfest went to the Seahawks and Cardinals, with big road wins. In a weird scheduling quirk, week 5 also has two NFC west division games. This division is loaded with very good teams.
The Bills look scary right now, and are the most complete team in football. We need to see it against better competition, but right now they’re destroying the opposition on both sides of the ball. More on this later.
Dallas also looks very good. They can run the ball, they can throw the ball, Dak looks completely recovered from his horrific leg injuries, their O-line is back to mauling people, and their defense has some great young playmakers and is getting better each week.
Urban Meyer has been second-guessed for this, but he absolutely made the right call when he went for it on 4th and goal from just inside the 1, late in the 1st half at Cincinnati, up 14-0. His team came in on an 18 game losing streak, he had a chance to put a foot on the Bengals’ throat, and teams like it when their coach boldly challenges them to win, instead of playing not to lose. And that was the last good decision he made on his recent trip to Ohio.
GOAT of the Week: Tyreek Hill. You knew one of his “nobody can cover me” monster games was coming. This is why he was the second WR taken in most drafts. Did Philly really try to cover him with a linebacker at the goal line? Honorable mention to Dak Prescott. Dak is back.
Goat of the week: Hmmm. How about Myles Gaskin, who logged a season high 16 carries last week against the Raiders while adding 3 catches, and on Sunday had a stat line of 2 carries for 3 yards, with 0 catches. WTF? We don’t even know who to blame for this garbage, as Miami is weirdly sharing OC duties - yeah, that’s working out well. We had Gaskin as a fade in our Week 4 Preview but we at least thought he would be a participant in the game.
The Hot Ticket
Waiver Wire: Let’s start at tight end, where a few players really showed out this week and will draw interest. Dawson Knox scored twice, Dalton Schultz now has 3 TDs in 2 weeks, and Mo Alie-Cox and C.J. Uzomah also scored twice. All four of these players also had good target volume. Schultz and Knox are more reliable and are in high scoring offenses with top QBs - the other two likely just had one-week blips and are harder to count on, especially with injured WRs on both teams likely to return soon. At RB, Damien Williams is a must add, with David Montgomery out multiple weeks, and little competition for carries. Samaje Perine should get an opportunity to lead the Bengals’ backfield for a few weeks. Brandon Bolden appears to have the James White role - if you are desperate at RB he could have value in full PPR. At WR, grab Darnell Mooney if he is still out on your wire. Emmanuel Sanders is getting steady production the last two weeks and is worth a pickup. It is hard to count on any one Cardinals receiver outside of Hopkins, but A.J. Green is getting targets and is still a very capable WR. Kadarius Toney looked very good Sunday, with the opportunity he got with two starting receivers out with injury - his usage going forward is uncertain but he is worth a stash. At QB, it looks like Trey Lance will get at least a couple of starts, and who knows, if he excels he could win the job for the rest of the year. His rushing gives him a solid floor but his passing is likely to be erratic - we saw that on Sunday. Still, he is one of those QBs that can score in multiple ways, and the offense is inventive, and that makes him an intriguing add. Sam Darnold can’t keep scoring rushing TDs at this pace, but if he is available grab him as he is definitely worth rostering, streaming on occasion, or even using as a lower-end starter. The same is true of Daniel Jones if he is still available (he shouldn't be - he has been a good fantasy producer all year, and he is taking much better care of the ball). And what to make of Taylor Heinicke? You could do worse. He has 8 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD in less than 4 games of work. He is streamable in the right matchups.
***NOTE - the first byes are in Week 6, so fantasy managers should start looking ahead for any bye week needs that are looming.
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
The 49ers’ first 12 TDs of the season were scored by 12 different players.
On Sunday, Tom Brady became the 4th QB to beat every NFL team (Favre, Brees, P. Manning).
The Giants have played three straight games that have ended in a walk-off (1-2 in those games).
Since losing to the Steelers in Week 1, the Bills have outscored their last 3 opponents 118-21, with two shutouts.
The Bills point differential of 90 points is bigger than the next two best teams combined.
The Texans had 109 yards of offense against the Bills, and had 100 yards of penalties against them. This contest was ‘Bama vs. Vandy. This contest was no contest.
Since the start of the 2020 season, in the 10 games where Dak Prescott has been healthy, Zeke Elliot has only 1 game with a finish lower than RB15 in full PPR.
Sam Darnold had 5 rushing TDs in his first 3 NFL seasons. Through 4 games of the 2021 season, Darnold has 5 rushing TDs, which leads the entire NFL.
Kyler Murray has completed 75% or more of his passes in 3 straight games - a first for the franchise.
Kyler and the Cards: On the Move
Instead of taking a knee on the final play of the game, Lamar Jackson ran for 5 yards, which put the Ravens over 100 rushing yards for the game. It was the 43rd straight 100 yard rushing game for the team, tying a record held by the Steelers. Vic Fangio was not pleased. We will see if the Karma Police come back at the Ravens for that one.
Before Sunday, neither Nick Folk nor Graham Gano had missed a FG try since week 2 of the 2020 season. Both had a missed try on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson had his first 300 yard passing game since week 1 of the 2019 season, and he did it against a Denver defense that came in ranked #2 vs. the pass.
Lamar in weeks 3 and 4 exceeded 250 passing yards in back-to-back games. Before that, his last 250 yard passing game was week 1 of the 2020 season.
Russell Wilson on Sunday became the fastest QB to 100 wins - doing it in the 4th game of his 10th season. Peyton Manning (10th game of 10 season) is the only other QB to get to 100 wins in his first 10 seasons.
Since the start of the 2018 season, Jimmy G has started 28 out of a possible 51 games, and now he is hurt again.
Trevon Diggs has 5 INTs in 4 games. He and his brother Stefon have caught at least one pass in every game so far this season. And Stefon hasn’t had a drop since week 3 of the 2020 season.
The Lions got into the red zone on their first three possessions, and came away with zero points (fumble, turnover on downs, fumble). Our crack research staff (consisting of me) went back three decades and couldn’t find another example of this.
Derrick Henry is currently on pace to set NFL records for carries, touches, rushing yards and yards from scrimmage in a season. The 17th game helps in those calculations, but still. We can’t even call him a workhorse - horses get tired, and need food and water. It’s more like a machine.
After 4 games, Henry has 30 more carries than his closest pursuer (Joe Mixon, who is now injured).
Dak Prescott has attempted fewer than 30 passes in 3 straight games, which has only happened once before in his career (2018).
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 4 Fantasy Preview!
DH
