Pigskin Papers Preview Week 4
Stafford: Riding the Wave in LA
(Posted September 30, 2021, Updated for Injuries October 2, 2021)
Welcome to Week 4. Somehow September is in the rearview mirror and we are already 4 weeks into football season. Time flies when you’re waiting for Allen Robinson to get to 100 yards on the season. The big news this week isn’t the signing of Josh Gordon by the Chiefs, or Richard Sherman by the Bucs. No, in case you haven’t heard, Tom Brady and the SB champion Bucs are going to be visiting Gillette Stadium on Sunday night. Here is our first prediction of the week - this will be the highest rated NFL game of the season. Nailed it! We’re 1 for 1 and we should end the column now.
We did pretty well with our Rides and Fades last week. Hopefully you listened to us when we warned against starting Justin Fields right away, and more broadly warned against starting any of the rookie QBs for that matter, who as a group crapped the bed so bad that they threw out the sheets. Hopefully, you ignored us when we said to ride Rondale Moore for another week. Hey, nobody bats a thousand. Our Ride of the Week was Austin Ekeler, and he delivered a solid game with more than 100 total yards and a TD, while catching 6 passes - good for 22 points in full PPR and 19 in half. Not bad.
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Moving on to Week 4. Let’s start with some analytics that can help us to think about the matchups. We like to start with the implied totals for the games - shootouts are sweet music to fantasy owners. Here they are, for the entire slate, from highest totals to lowest:
54.5 - ARI@LAR, KCC@PHI
53.5 - CLE@MIN
52.5 - SEA@SF, LV@LAC
50.5 - CAR@DAL
49.5 - TB@NEP
48.5 - WAS@ATL
48 - HOU@BUF
46.5 - JAC@CIN
46 - TEN@CIN
45.5 - PIT@GB
44.5 - BAL@DEN
43.5 - IND@MIA, NYG@NO
42.5 - DET@CHI
Now let’s take a look at some key offensive and defensive team statistics. Fantasy managers need to know how good a team is at running or passing the ball, and how easy or hard it is to run and pass on a defense. There are only 3 weeks of data, so this is still a small sample size that has outsized influence from specific matchups. Still, we are starting to see how good, or bad, or even terrible, each team is in these respects. For now we are using yardage totals as the measuring stick, but as the season goes on we will use some other metrics.
Top 5 offenses, rushing:
BAL, CLE, TEN, DAL, PHI
Bottom 5 offenses, rushing (from worst to 5th worst):
PIT, TB, GB, NYJ, ATL
Top 5 offenses, passing:
LV, TB, ARI, LAC, KC
Bottom 5 offenses, passing (from worst to 5th worst):
CHI, NO, NYJ, MIA, CIN
Top 5 defenses, rushing:
CAR, DEN, NO, TB, CLE
Bottom 5 defenses, rushing (from worst to 5th worst):
LAC, KC, SEA, ARI, IND
Top 5 defenses, passing:
CAR, NE, DEN, BUF, CLE
Bottom 5 defenses, passing (from worst to 5th worst):
TB, DAL, BAL, WAS, JAC
Some of this is not surprising at all. The Ravens are the most run-heavy team in the NFL and their QB is a 1,000 yard rusher. The Chiefs pile up air yards every year. And Tampa and New Orleans are very stout against the run, again. But some of it is - like the Raiders leading the league in passing, and Carolina having the #1 ranked defense against both the run and the pass. Also, it doesn’t show up above but Cincinnati has been surprisingly strong on defense this year - 8th overall through 3 games. Yes, I’m talking about that Cincinnati. The one in Ohio. Believe it - the Bengals are much improved on defense.
Injury Update, Saturday, October 2 (NOTE - we have not adjusted our Rides and Fades section below, any comments are here):
QB: Lamar Jackson - questionable, expected to play. Bears QB - will be a GTD. We feel a little better about the entire Bears offense if Andy Dalton plays.
RB: CMC is OUT. Melvin Gordon, Darrell Henderson, Antonio Gibson, Dalvin Cook and Elijah Mitchell are all listed as questionable, and note that Josh Jacobs is also iffy and he plays on Monday night (official status not listed yet). These situations vary in terms of likelihood of suiting up, and need to be monitored through Sunday morning.
WR: A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both OUT. We already had Ryan Tannehill as a fade, and predicted a Derrick Henry all-you-can-eat buffet, and this just solidifies that advice. JuJu and Diontae Johnson are not on the final injury report, but Chase Claypool is listed as questionable [UPDATE - HE IS OUT]. Keenan Allen was limited in practice all week, and because the game is Monday night his status has not yet been listed. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are both OUT for the Giants, and MVS is OUT for the Packers. Tyler Lockett is questionable. Will Fuller is not on the injury report. Curtis Samuel will see his first game action for the WFT, and Rashod Bateman could be active this week.
TE - Gronk is doubtful - we find it hard to believe he would miss the return to Foxboro if he can walk and breathe, so the injury to his ribs must be pretty bad. Since this game is on Sunday night, make other plans. [UPDATE- HE IS OUT]. And George Kittle Is questionable.
Rides and Fades
Our Rides and Fades represent our analysis of players we think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This is not intended to be a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, start all of your studs. You likely won’t ever see us mentioning Mahomes, Henry, Adams and other elite, top 3 options at their positions because, well, they aren’t ever in a position to overperform against very high expectations. We can’t talk about every player, but we try to hit on a bunch of them. While this column is intended primarily for season-long play, it should also be useful for DFS.
Each week, we are going to give you a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at each position. Since the idea is comparing players to expectations, these are the rules: the Ride of the Week has to be ranked outside of the top 4 (QB, TE), top 6 (RB) or top 8 (WR) consensus half PPR rankings for the week. So the Ride of the Week is never going to be Patrick Mahomes, CMC, Davante Adams or Travis Kelce. The Fade of the week has to be ranked inside the top 12 (QB, TE) or 18 (RB) or 24 (WR), and the Sleeper of the Week has to be ranked outside the top 16 (QB, TE), 24 (RB) or 36 (WR). It’s our site so we make the rules. Are you all OK with that? Good. Here we go, the week 4 Rides and Fades:
QB: Justin Herbert is the consensus QB 4 this week but we think he has a good shot to perform even better than that, against a Vegas defense that can be thrown on. He is in command of this offense and the Chargers will need to score plenty of points to win what should be a shootout in this key divisional battle. We can’t figure out why Matt Stafford is ranked near the bottom of the top 10 of QBs this week. What’s not to like? This game has the highest implied total of the week, he is at home, and he has been on fire. We like him for multiple TDs and he is our QB Ride of the Week. Dak Prescott gets the Panthers #1 pass defense (which just lost its best corner) at home this week and we think he exposes them, and puts up decent numbers - ride him. We aren’t sure what Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr need to do to get love from the experts, but once again they are outside the top 10 and once again, both have nice matchups and a good shot to finish inside the top 10 for the week. They’re rides. If you need a streamer, Joe Burrow gets an awful Jaguars defense tonight, and should have his way with them although he may not attempt a lot of passes. And we like, or maybe even love, Baker Mayfield at the Vikings in what has a potential to be a full shootout - he is our QB Sleeper of the Week. In terms of fades, this is a tough week as we don’t have much of a problem with any of the QBs you’d be starting in a 12 team league. You’re starting Lamar Jackson, but temper your expectations in Denver against what may be the best defense in the league, plus Lamar is banged up. If Ryan Tannehill is your starting QB we suggest you look for other options this week. I know, I know, they’re playing the inept Jets - but believe it or not Jets are top 5 in fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs, and Tannehill might be without both of his starting WRs. This game has Derrick Henry, all day long, written all over it and Tannehill is our QB Fade of the Week. You don’t need us to tell you this but don’t start any of the rookie QBs. Yes, Mac Jones has a good matchup against a Bucs pass defense that has been as generous as any, but this game is going to be a complete circus, and until we see some consistent production, stick with safer options. And if you’ve been starting Daniel Jones, it has worked out surprisingly well so far but on the road against the Saints’ stifling defense and with his receivers banged up, no way. Fade City.
RB
The Rides: Let’s start with Joe Mixon, playing tonight. He has been up and down so far and is ranked just outside the top 5 this week, but tonight he rides - bring beer and fresh horses for the men! This is a smash spot and he is our RB Ride of the Week. We think David Montgomery gets back on track and puts up nice points in a home game against the Lions that shouldn’t go off the rails like last week’s debacle. And in the same game, we like D’Andre Swift to keep doing his thing and keep delivering top 10 finishes - especially in full PPR. Chuba Hubbard is ranked way down in the low teens this week and we like him for a better finish than that in a game where the Panthers will need to try to control the clock and keep Dak and friends off the field. If you spent all that FAAB on him, get him in your lineup.We are not as high as most experts on Jonathan Taylor, but we think he will slightly outperform expectations at Miami, against a defense that is tough to throw on. Chris Carson isn’t flashy but he keeps scoring TDs. We will keep riding him. And our RB Sleeper of the Week is Zack Moss, who is ranked just outside the top 24 but gets the Texans this week and has a good shot at finding the end zone again in what should be a blowout win. In fact, we think you can fire up both Bills RBs in this one, if you need to. And keep an eye on Elijah Mitchell - if he trends toward playing, we think he will get the bulk of the work in what should be a good spot against the Seahawks, but starting him is definitely a big risk that you should only take if you’re desperate.
The Fades: Saqoun Barkley is looking better and better, and the usage is there, but we don’t think he returns top 12 value against this New Orleans defense. If you own him you’re starting him, but of the backs ranked in the top 18 this week he is our RB Fade of the Week. This week’s RB facing the Bucs is Damien Harris. And maybe he even gets some of the James White role. Still, no thanks. We are also staying away from Miles Gaskin, who only had a 53% snap share last week and was lifted at the goal line for Malcolm Brown with the game on the line. Not a good sign. Chase Edmonds rewarded his owners last week with two short scores, but those are hard to count on and especially with a goal line vulture at QB - we are fading him at the Rams. We are also continuing to fade Mike Davis, who has some value in full PPR but is losing touches to Cordarelle Patterson and is playing in an anemic offense, and we also will keep fading Ronald Jones and Mark Ingram. And finally, we don’t like any of the Raven RBs at Denver, so Ty’Son Williams is a no-go for us.
WR
Rides: Wait, Keenan Allen is ranked outside the top 15 this week? Sign us up. Yes, Mike Williams is getting the love at the goal line but Allen is still the move the chains guy and we like him to gobble up volume in this one. And Odell Beckham is outside the top 25? Sign us up for that one too as he should easily deliver a better finish than that in what could be a shootout. Calvin Ridley is ranked near the bottom of the top 10 and we think this is the week where the Falcons finally open it up with some deeper throws and he delivers a top 5 finish, against a WFT defense that has been a huge disappointment so far - we will make him our WR Ride of the Week. We liked DJ Moore last week and we are riding him again at Dallas. An amazing stat - the Panthers have not trailed at any point this season - but that likely ends at some point on Sunday and that should mean more (as in Moore) passing. Deebo Samuel is ranked outside the top 15 this week and we are all over that - we like him for a good game against a Seattle defense that has already allowed 4 TDs to WRs. Ja’Marr Chase is also ranked in the low teens this week. Why? Yes, the Bengals might not throw a ton in this one but they should throw enough, and Chase is Joe’s guy. And speaking of rookies, Jaylen Waddle caught 12 balls last week and he is ranked outside the top 35 this week? He is our WR Sleeper of the Week, narrowly edging out Jakobi Meyers, who is going to get targeted a lot in a game where the Patriots won’t be able to run, and will have to throw to keep up. Meyers might even get his first NFL touchdown.
Fades - We love De’Andre Hopkins, but we aren’t convinced that he is 100% healthy, and think he might be a decoy this week. We’re fading him. Marquise Brown had three awful drops last week, and now he faces a stingy Denver defense that’s allowing just under 150 passing yards per game and has only given up 2 TDs to WRs - he’s a fade. Brandin Cooks will see a lot of target volume, and maybe he gets points in garbage time, but he might see a lot of Tre'Davious White and the Bills have only allowed 1 TD to a WR in 3 games - we will pass and even make him our WR Fade of the Week. The Texans might not score in this one. We will continue to stay away from Kenny Golladay, and the matchup this week is brutal in any case. We’re also going to continue to fade D.J. Chark. And where is Robby Anderson? We will fade him until he is found. And the up and down Christain Kirk is hard to predict, but we see a pattern developing and think this is a down week for him.
TE
This position is no fun to talk about - if you have one of the top 8-10 guys you start him every week and if you don’t, you cross your fingers, pray, rake your Zen Garden, or do whatever it is you do to summon the Fantasy Gods. Our TE Ride of the Week is Logan Thomas at Atlanta. Other guys who we think should outperform expectations are Robert Tonyan against a Pittsburgh D that has been surprisingly weak against the position, Tyler Higbee, and Dallas Goedart vs. the Chiefs. The Eagles should be figuring out right about now that they have a big advantage over defenses with their two talented tight ends. Our TE Sleeper of the Week is Tyler Conklin. Hey, it’s hard to find a tight end ranked outside the top 16 that you’d even consider starting - who made up these idiotic rules?
Our TE Fade of the Week is also tough, as the entire top 12 at the position needs to be started just about every week. But, gun to our head, we will go with Kyle Pitts, because we just haven’t seen it yet and this entire offense has been awful. And we will continue to fade Jonnu Smith, who has been a big disappointment.
That’s a wrap! Good luck to all in Week 4. Check back with us on Tuesday for the weekly fantasy recap, where we will tell you how well all of our predictions turned out. That’s a promise.
