The Pigskin Papers Postscript - Bye, Bye, Week 7
Welcome to the Jungle, NFL
(Posted October 26, 2021)
Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 7 Fantasy Recap. Most fantasy managers are very happy to say Bye, Bye, Bye to this week. The 6 teams that got the week off were sorely missed. But that didn’t mean there wasn’t plenty of fantasy fun to go around. A handful of players - Brady, Murray, D. Henry, Kupp and Chase in particular - continued to impose their weekly dominance on the fantasy world.
The biggest story of the week was two highly anticipated AFC battles, and both ended up being blowouts. Joe Burrow and the Bengals ran away from the Ravens in the second half while the Titans completely dismantled the mighty Chiefs. The 2018 and 2019 league MVPs each watched the end of his team’s game from the sidelines. I’ll have more to say about the spiraling Chiefs later, and will leave it at this for now: A friend who is a Panthers fan and who was at MetLife Stadium on Sunday said this to to me on Sunday night: “If you told me before the season that in Week 7 we would score the same number of points as the Chiefs, and would have the same record as them after the game, I’d be ecstatic.” Um, yeah, not so much.
As for the Bengals - huge, statement win at the Ravens. They’ve arrived. They have 2 losses on the season and both were by just 3 points. Their rebuilt defense is good and finally figured out how to offer some real resistance to Lamar Jackson, who was previously 5-0 against them. And the Burrow-Chase connection has rapidly become one of the best and most feared in the league. It’s cash money for fantasy.
Meanwhile, after a steady diet of nail-biters the first 6 weeks, Week 7 was blowout city. Sunday was a good day to go out and get your Halloween costume or mow the lawn. Only 3 games all weekend were one-score games (Den@Cle, Atl@Mia, NO@Sea) and only one (Falcons 30, Dolphins 28) was decided on the final possession.
And here’s a burning question I’m struggling with: How do the Titans lose to the Jets, and then in the same month beat the Bills and Chiefs in a 6 day span? Football makes no sense sometimes, and that’s why we love it and keep coming back. “Football is Life.”
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Injuries From Week 7: The big surprise was Darren Waller not suiting up on Sunday, after suffering the dreaded injury at practice Friday (ankle). Hopefully he doesn’t miss more time. Players getting hurt in games this week included Josh Jacobs (chest, appears to be minor), Miles Sanders (ankle, status not yet known), Zach Wilson (knee, will miss a few weeks), Malcolm Brown (quad, put on IR), Donovan Peoples-Jones (hurt in warmups, didn’t play any snaps) and Patrick Mahomes (head, could have returned, should be fine this week). And the big news that broke yesterday: Davante Adams was placed on the COVID list, and his status for Thursday is unclear, but I would say it’s unlikely he is able to play.
Leaders Report - Instead of the usage report, this week I’m just giving you the top 5 players at each position so far this season, on a per game basis (minimum 4 games played), in Half PPR.
QB: 1. Allen 2. Brady 3. Hurts 4. Murray 5. Jackson
RB: 1. Henry 2. Ekeler 3. Kamara 4. Elliott 5. J. Taylor
WR: 1. Kupp 2. Samuel 3. Chase 4. T. Hill 5. Adams
TE: 1. Kelce 2. Andrews 3. Knox 4. Schultz 5. Pitts
PK: 1. Bass 2. Folk 3. 5 kickers virtually tied
DST: 1. BUF 2. ARI 3. DAL T4. NO T4. TB
What We Learned - Week 7
Here are my key week 7 takeaways, in no particular order:
A Chief Concern
Cooper Kupp is a 7-11: he’s always open. Stafford is looking for him often, and finding him. He has double digit targets in every game this season, after hitting that level only 3 times in 2020. His line through 7 games is absurd (56-809-9), and it puts him on pace for the best fantasy season ever by a WR. We’ve seen enough - he is the WR1.
Burrow to Chase is devastating. It’s not just the long plays we see on the highlights - it’s everything, and it’s changing how defenses play the Bengals. Chase’s presence, is opening up the offense for everyone. Mixon should be pretty consistent, and Higgins, Boyd and Uzomah will have plenty of opportunities although you can’t expect a high level of consistency from any of them. This is an offense that spreads it around, but it has a clear Alpha dog.
The Browns can run the ball on anyone. I won’t say that it doesn’t matter who is back there, and D’Ernest Johnson ran with purpose and looked great against a very banged-up Denver front 7. But that O-line is really good, and so is the run-blocking scheme and play design.
Don’t look now, and yes, they ran it up on the Jets, but the Patriots have some fantasy relevance. Damien Harris has put up back-to-back 100 yard games and has scored in 3 straight, and Hunter Henry has scored in 4 straight which is currently the longest TD streak of any player at any position. Branden Bolden has a grip on the James White role and is definitely flex-worthy. And Mac Jones is in the best situation of any of the rookie QBs and is the one I’d most consider starting in a pinch.
Now Derrick Henry is THROWING TD passes? Damn. But why is Mike Vrabel giving him 29 carries in a 24-point win? Henry has SIXTY EIGHT more carries than #2 on the list. 68!!! It would be one thing if that was for a full season, but that’s through 7 weeks. I get it - he appears to be indestructible. But come on, be smart.
Elijah Mitchell is the 49ers RB to own and everyone who spent way too much FAAB on him (including me, by the way) might get an OK return on that investment. Trey Sermon is on a milk carton somewhere, with just 1 touch in the last 2 weeks. It’s safe to drop him. Yes, JaMycal Hasty is getting the 3rd down and 2 minute drill work, but Jeff Wilson likely won’t be back until sometime after Thanksgiving. This is Mitchell’s gig.
D’Andre Swift is currently the RB 7 in Half PPR, and the RB 4 in Full. He is an elite receiving weapon out of the backfield. I guess we all should have seen this coming, on a bad team that often plays from behind and doesn’t have a lot of experience at WR. I admit it - I completely missed it. Cancel your premium subscription….
Myles Gaskin’s touches and Half PPR fantasy points (rounded) the last 4 weeks: 2-15-7-19, and 0, 27, 2, 16, which is has been a cheap amusement park roller coaster that’s visibly unsafe to hop aboard, and that makes you vomit if you ride it (I know, I’m a retching Gaskin owner). I GIVE UP! Although with Malcolm Brown on IR, I do expect steadier usage for at least a few weeks, somewhere in the 15 touch range.
Is Tua going to be replaced by Deshaun Watson? Is Sam Darnold? We will know that soon. But Darnold’s fantasy output has cratered after a hot start, and it got bad enough on Sunday that he got benched - in a stadium where his memories were already awful. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have lost 6 straight after winning their opener at New England. Tua threw 2 bad picks Sunday, but he also completed 80% of his passes and had 4 TDs, and took his team on 2 nearly flawless 4th quarter drives to get the Dolphins back into the game. He is missing 2 of his starting WRs and despite that, he was the QB10 in Week 6 and the QB 5 in Week 7 (even better, he was a “Start” for me both weeks). These were games against the Jaguars and Falcons. A much sterner test awaits this week at Buffalo. Tua fractured ribs in the prior meeting in Week 2.
Remember when the Panthers and Broncos were both 3-0? Yeah, about that. It’s been a little rough across the board for fantasy too.
It’s easy to forget that Carson Wentz, with Frank Reich as his OC, was well on his way to being the NFL MVP in 2017 before he got hurt diving for the end zone. Don’t sleep on Wentz - he is playing excellent football and also gives you a little bit of rushing upside. This offense has some good fantasy pieces around him.
Derek Carr, have yourself a day and a half. No Darren Waller? No Problem. Carr completed a ludicrous 91% of his passes and took apart the Eagles D like a skilled surgeon. The Raiders passing game, and really their entire offense up and down the line, continues to have better upside than we thought.
Kyler Murray is an outstanding QB, both in real life and in fantasy. But he has to stop taking so many hits. 17 games is a long season and the Cards need to avoid a repeat of what happened to him last year - they’ve got much more to play for this season. Zach Ertz looks like a nice addition to this offense - but one that will further dilute the consistency and fantasy value of the rest of the skill position group.
Kyle Pitts has arrived. It took a few weeks but Matt Ryan is now targeting him early and often, and he is creating the kind of mismatches we expected. This should help others in the offense to have room to operate, but if it wasn’t for a short TD catch, Calvin Ridley would have had another very forgettable day in fantasy. Where are his big plays, which were the staple of his huge season last year? And Cordarelle Patterson dominated the RB share with 14 carries to Mike Davis’s 4, plus he saw a 74% snap share after being below 50% in each of the team’s games before the bye. It looks like he’s the featured back in ATL.
The Texans have scored less than 10 points in 4 of their last 5. Their offense should be a little better once Tyrod Taylor is back, but you really can only consider Brandon Cooks because of his monster target share and he isn’t exactly a sure thing.
The Chiefs have big problems, and especially on defense where they can’t stop anyone. But seeing them score 3 points against a Titans defense that’s not that good to begin with, and was down several defensive backs, is concerning. I don’t want to overreact and say the Chiefs are cooked, but this wasn’t an isolated incident. They also didn’t score a TD in the Super Bowl and it was the same problem - very poor protection from the O-line, and a defense getting major pressure on Mahomes without blitzing (the Titans blitzed him all of ONCE). Right now, Mahomes is the QB7, Tyreek is the WR 4, Kelce is the TE 1, the starting RBs when put together are outside the top 15, Butker is the PK 18, and none of the other skill position players are startable. So it’s not like the fantasy production is terrible. Not the big 3 anyway. But for those who bought into this offense thinking it was going to be a continuation of the ridiculous production of the last 3 years, start worrying.
MNF was hard to watch - which made Tom Brady’s visit to the Manning brothers’ simulcast even better - you could just listen to them instead of watching that awful game. The rain didn’t help, but outside of one long catch and run by Metcalf and a dozen or so screens and checkdowns to Kamara, there was almost no offense to speak of. The Seahawks need Russ back, and soon. Just when I thought Sam Darnold had the award for “worst ex-Jets QB of the week” sewn up, this game came along and made me rethink it.
The Bears lost by 35, and yet Khalil Herbert managed to compile 100 rushing yards against the league’s best run defense. I have no idea how that happened, or what Matt Nagy and Justin Fields are doing, but this passing game is completely broken. Allen Robinson in 2020: 102-1250-6. A-Rob through Week 7, 2021: 23-250-1. And it’s not like the Bears were competent at QB last season either.
I’m going to talk about kickers again - sorry, feel free to scroll down, and relax, this is only twice in seven weeks. All I am going to say is that it’s mostly a crapshoot which is why you should never waste a pick on a kicker before the very end of your draft. Only 3 of last year’s top 10 kickers (Bass, Carlson and Tucker) are currently among the top 10 scorers at the position. Presumptive #1 PK Butker is currently 18th.
Brady is ridiculous. No AB? No Gronk? That’s fine, he still has 2 other elite weapons in Evans and Godwin and nobody is better at finding the open guy and exploiting mismatches. Have you seen their remaining schedule? Brady has a legit shot to be the QB1 this year - with barely any rushing totals. Amazing, even for a non-human.
CHASE Me
GOAT of the Week: As usual there is competition. Brady, Burrow and Carr are all deserving and so is Mike Evans who scored 3 TDs. But I’m giving it to Ja’Marr Chase. Remember this summer when training camp reports were negative and he had “the drops”? Well, that pushed his draft price down and those who got him are laughing at the rest of us now. With Marlon Humphrey on him for most of the game - no slouch by any means - Chase went for 8-201-1 on 10 targets, and his long TD was a study in breaking tackles and then engaging an extra gear to run away from an entire defense. Ja’Marr Chase is fast. Write it down.
Have a Ball, Mike (just not THAT ball)
Goat of the week: The KC Chiefs Offense. I talked about this above so I’m done spilling ink. THREE points of offense? Really? From the Bears, Texans and McCaffrey-less Panthers, OK, sure. But from KC? WTF?
Waiver Wire: With only 2 teams on bye this week (BAL, LV), we won't have the frenzy of last week. Still, there are some decent options on the shelves.
QB: If you need a streamer, Matt Ryan vs. the struggling Panthers, Jameis Winston hosting Tampa in what could be a shootout, and Daniel Jones on MNF at the Chiefs are all OK, and especially if Jones can get a couple of weapons back. I doubt Carson Wentz is available in many leagues at this point but he is producing at a low-end QB1 level.
RB: It’s not clear how much time Miles Sanders will miss, but Kenneth Gainwell is the obvious top target this week, and Boston Scott is also worth a look. Brandon Bolden has the passing-catching role in the Patriots’ backfield and that’s always had good value and especially in full PPR. There is no timetable for Chris Carson’s return, so Rashad Penny is worth an add - he and Alex Collins figure to share the work as part of a committee. And it looks like Devonta Freeman is getting the most work in Baltimore but they’re on a bye this week.
WR: It was just a few weeks ago that everyone was sure Randall Cobb had emerged as the #2 in Green Bay. But he has produced just 5 catches for 52 yards over the last 2 games. Now everyone is saying it’s Allen Lazard, so I’m suspicious. But with Davante Adams doubtful for Thursday night, Lazard and Cobb both could be busy. [UPDATE - Lazard has been declared OUT, as he was also placed on the COVID list]. And MVS is eligible to come off of IR, so he is another one to watch. Rashod Bateman is a decent add for depth, as is Russell Gage. And Michael Gallup could return from IR as early as this week - if his owner dropped him, consider adding him.
TE: TE is pretty thin always, and is TD-dependent position, and 2 guys who have been scoring TDs and are worth grabbing are Mo Alie-Cox and C.J. Uzomah.
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
No Waller? No Problem.
Matt Stafford became the 13th QB to throw 300 TD passes. That puts him halfway to Tom Brady, who stands alone in the 600 TD club. You all know about the negotiation for the football, which Mike Evans gave to a fan.
The NFL is king. Going into week 7, the 33 highest rated TV shows since the NFL season kicked off are all NFL games.
Carson Wentz has thrown 170 passes since his last INT, the longest such streak in the league. Wentz initially was charged with an INT on MNF, but it was later changed to a fumble.
Ja’Marr Chase has the most receiving yards (754) through the first 7 games of an NFL career, and Kyle Pitts has the most receiving yards by a TE (471) through the first 6 games of an NFL career. And the 163 yards Pitts racked up on Sunday against the Dolphins (more on that smoldering pile below) was the second most all time for a rookie TE (Mark Bavaro (176, 1985).
The Dolphins could have stayed put at pick 3 last April and had their choice of Pitts or Chase. This commentator argued after the draft that they should have done just that rather than trading down and then back up as they did. Oh, and they could have had Justin Herbert over Tua the year before. Hang on, this Dolphins fan is going outside to play in traffic for a few minutes.
D’Ernest Johnson had the most rushing yards in his first-ever start since...the man he immediately replaced, Kareem Hunt, in 2017.
More Brady - Sunday marked his 97th 3-TD game and his 37th 4-TD game, tying Drew Brees for most all-time in both categories.
Derek Carr’s 91% completion percentage vs. the Eagles was the second highest all-time (min 30 attempts), and now I’ll say, more Brees (96.7%).
Rookie QBs are 0-13 playing at New England in the Belichick era.
The Cardinals 31-5 win over the Texans was the first game with that final score in NFL history, which is kind of cool. This is apparently called a “Scorigami”, and it’s sort of like a Yahtzee or a solar eclipse for football nerds - there are now 1,068 Scorigamis. This wasn’t the first Scorigami this season - apparently last week’s Rams-Giants game, which I attended and which finished with a never-before score of 38-11, was also a Scorigami. I had no idea I was at a history-making event. I just listed my ticket stub on Ebay for $1,100. If you’re interested, email me at pigskinpapers@gmail.com. The problem is my phone was my ticket, so we’ll have to work that out.
Prior to getting hurt and leaving the game, Patrick Mahomes was having the single-worst regular season start of his career. It was his first game without a TD pass since Sept. 29, 2019, and his first start since Oct. 7, 2018 with no TD passes and 2 turnovers. His passer rating of 62.3 was the lowest of his career. Note - some of this is a testament to just how good Mahomes has been since he became the KC starter.
Since his terrible opening game of the season, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 15 TDs against just 1 INT.
Week 7 was the first week of this season without at least 1 OT game.
The Browns have had 3 different RBs rush for 100 yards this season, while 5 teams have had none.
The Saints on the road since the start of the 2018 season: 23-5. Really.
The 2 starting RBs in the Sunday night game, Jonathan Taylor and Elijah Mitchell, ended up with identical rushing stats (18-107-1).
Carson Wentz has 4 straight games with exactly 2 TD passes and 0 INTs.
Jared Goff has never won a game as a starting QB without Sean McVay as his head coach.
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 8 Fantasy Preview!
DH
