Pigskin Papers Week 8 Fantasy Preview
(Posted October 28, 2021, Updated for Injuries Saturday October 30, 2021)
Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 8 Fantasy Preview. It’s hard to believe we’re almost at the halfway point of the season. Damn, that was quick. If you’re still waiting for a particular player to turn the corner, it might be time to think about moving on, or at least, to come to terms with reality.
I’m looking forward to jumping into the Rides and Fades this week, after crushing it last week. I did get Myles Gaskin wrong for the 4th straight week (which sucks, since he’s on my fantasy team), but overall the lineup advice was mostly dead-on and definitely the best of the year so far. I’m especially proud of the contrarian call on Robert Tonyan as the TE Sleeper of the Week. Let’s see if we can keep it going with more good picks this week. And if not, I apologize in advance. To see all of the picks from last week, click: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-7
Before we turn to the Rides and Fades, let’s start with a few useful analytics. Here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied point totals for the week:
Top 5:
BUF - 31.5
KC - 31.25
LAR - 31
DAL - 29
AZ - 28.75
Bottom 5:
PIT - 19.5
CHI - 18.25
MIA - 18
NYJ - 16.5
HOU - 16.5
Here are the offenses with the best and worst ground and air matchups this week:
RUSHING, EASIEST:
NE vs. the 32nd ranked LAC run defense
LAR vs. the 31st ranked HOU run defense
JAX vs. the 30th ranked SEA run defense
DET vs. the 29th ranked PHI run defense
RUSHING, TOUGHEST:
NO vs. the 1st ranked TB run defense
PIT vs. the 2nd ranked CLE run defense
TB vs. the 3rd ranked NO run defense
MIN vs. the T4th ranked DAL run defense
PASSING, EASIEST:
DEN vs. the 32nd ranked WAS pass defense
SEA vs. the 31st ranked JAX pass defense
BUF vs. the 30th ranked MIA pass defense
MIN vs. the 28th ranked DAL pass defense
PASSING, TOUGHEST
MIA vs. the 1st ranked BUF pass defense
ATL vs. the 2nd ranked CAR pass defense
GB vs. the 3rd ranked ARI pass defense
NE vs. the 4th ranked LAC defense
Injury Watch - Updated Saturday October 30, 2021
Here is the Saturday injury rundown:
QB: The Big name here is Dak Prescott, who is still not fully healed from a calf injury suffered on the game-winning play in Week 6, before the bye. It sounds like a GTD, with the Cowboys leaning towards NOT playing him. Keep a close watch, and plan accordingly with your Cowboys’ pass-catchers. Cooper Rush would get the start if he can’t go. Baker Mayfield is back as the Browns starter this week and Trey Lance is available this week to backup Jimmy G. Davis Mills gets another start for the Texans.
RB: Miles Sanders was put on IR, so Kenneth Gainwell gets the start, with Boston Scott also expected to see some of the work. Saquon Barkley won’t be back this weeks and Devontae Booker gets another start at the Chiefs - not a bad spot for him. Austin Ekeler hurt his hip in practice on Weds and is questionable - keep an eye on this one as it’s a late game on Sunday. Nick Chubb is set to return this week, and D’Ernest Johnson should see some sort of share with him. D’Andre Swift is dinged up but expected to play (fire him up), as is Antonio Gibson (proceed with caution). Alex Collins (groin) is also expected to play this week.
WR: AB (ankle) is OUT again this week. Julio Jones is also OUT this week, and I’m wondering if that hamstring is ever going to be close to 100% this year. Kenny Golladay is OUT again this week. Corey Davis (hip) is doubtful. Jerry Jeudy is expected to return this week although that’s not 100% as he reported soreness after Friday’s practice - this is another late game so pay attention. Deebo Samuel (calf) is questionable - watch this one as this injury popped up during the week. The Giants are optimistic that both Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard will play Monday night, and you want them in your lineups if they are active, but note that it is a Monday night game. DeVante Parker is a GTD, and TY Hilton is likely to play this week.
TE: Dawson Knox is OUT this week. Gronk is expected to make his return this week. Jonnu Smith is questionable and probably a GTD in a late-afternoon start. TJ Hockenson will likely keep playing through his injury for as long as he can. Looking ahead, in case you missed it, Robert Tonyan tore his ACL on TNF and is done for the year. Darren Waller might be able to return next week, after the bye.
BYES Week 8: BAL Ravens, LV Raiders
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, start all of your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 3 options at their positions as “Rides” because, well, they aren’t ever in a position to overperform against very high expectations. Plus it’s pretty easy to say “Start Derrick Henry” and be right all the time, but there is little value to you, the reader. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should also be useful for DFS formats.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE. Since the idea here is comparing players to expectations, the general rules are that the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who is ranked really low anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper from lower down the ranks. Here we go - the Week 8 Rides and Fades:
QB: QB isn’t complicated this year - there are about 10-12 stud QBs that head the rankings every week and if you have one of them, you play him almost every week. If you have 2 of them, well, then you have to make a tough choice each week and you have the option of trading one of them. Josh Allen is the #1 QB this week, at home against a struggling Dolphins defense. You don’t need me to tell you to start him. But let me give you some Rides from further down the rankings:
Joe Burrow. Could the Bengals have a letdown this week? Doubtful. They’re out to prove that they’re a legitimate AFC contender, and I think they’ll take care of business against the Jets like they’re supposed to. The only thing giving me caution is that he may not need to throw much. He is ranked as the QB9 this week and I think he can easily surpass that.
Matt Stafford has the same potential concern - the Rams play the lowly Texans and it’s likely to be a non-competitive game, plus you can run all day on the Texans. But this team throws a lot even when leading and I can see Stafford racking up 3 TDs by halftime. He is my QB Ride of the Week, and not for the first time this year.
Outside the top 10, there are plenty of good options this week:
Matt Ryan hosting the Panthers. The Panthers were ranked #1 against the pass and were allowing among the fewest fantasy points to QBs the first few weeks. But like everything else with this team, they’ve fallen off sharply and I think a resurgent Ryan, with all of his weapons back, is getting this team at the right time. Plus the World Series is in Atlanta this weekend and I can see the Falcons riding high off of the energy. Really, I can. I love them this week.
Ryan Tannehill at the Colts. We rode him last week and it paid off - the WRs are back and this offense is rounding into form, and scoring plenty.
Kirk Cousins at Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and I see a high scoring game between two rested teams.
Daniel Jones at the Chiefs. Hopefully he will have some of his weapons back, to deploy against a pushover defense that’s allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and in a game where the Chiefs figure to try to pour it on after last week’s embarrassment.
Carson Wentz vs. the Titans. The Titans are getting after the passer, but Wentz has been getting it done every week, and the Colts are going to need to score in this one to keep up.
Jameis Winston at home against his old team, the Bucs. Revenge game! Yes, the Tampa secondary is playing much better, but they can still be had. And Jameis will need to be much better this week for his team to have a chance in this one.
Teddy Bridgewater, hosting the WFT. I’m assuming he’s starting, and if he does he gets the league’s most generous pass defense, at home, plus he will have Jerry Jeudy back which should help the entire offense. At QB18, he is my QB Sleeper of the Week.
And the Fades:
Aaron Rodgers was my QB Ride of the Week last week and he delivered, but the Fantasy Football world is a cruel place and just like that he drops to the QB Fade of the Week the following Sunday. This isn’t complicated. A-Rod is playing great, but he’ll be without not only his best WR, but one of the very best and most targeted weapons in the NFL, plus his #2 WR is out. And he’s on the road on a short week against a stingy defense that’s ranked 3rd vs. the pass and that’s allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. That’s just too much working against the reigning MVP.
Tua was a ride for me the past 2 weeks even with all the trade noise (aka, leaks by the desperate Texans) buzzing around him and it paid off with two top 10 finishes. Not this week. Buffalo is #1 vs. the pass, has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, and in the last 2 meetings has turned Tua over multiple times, and broken his ribs. Better days are ahead but not this week.
I’m still fading every one of the rookie QBs. Most of them you can’t consider. Mac Jones has a tough passing matchup at the Chargers, and while Trevor Lawrence has a decent matchup at Seattle, that’s a difficult place to play for veteran QBs, much less a rookie. And Justin Fields and Davis Mills can’t be considered at all.
No player’s fantasy stock has dropped faster this year than Sam Darnold’s. Yes, it’s a tasty matchup at the Falcons, but his confidence has to be a big issue, in an “I can’t believe this is happening again” kind of way. He is a stay-away for me.
RB
I hit on most of my RB calls the last 2 weeks so let’s see if I can stay on a heater.
I love Damien Harris this week - and he is a Ride for the 3rd straight week. He hasn’t let me down and against the league’s worst run defense, which has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing runners, why is he the RB14 this week? A top 10 week is realistic.
Another rhetorical question: Why is Joe Mixon ranked 10th at his position this week? I know he shares the work some, and that this game could get out of hand, but the Jets have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs and have yielded a league-worst 10 rushing TDs this year, including 4 last week. I’ve bought the ticket - RB Ride of the Week.
Ezekiel Elliott is a very obvious name and I don’t usually give you obvious names. He is ranked as the RB5 this week, but I think he has top 3 potential against a Vikings defense that’s allowing 128 yards on the ground per game. Zeke is averaging just north of 5 YPC, and he broke out with 7 receptions in his last game. I think Dallas will want to run the ball in this one. This just feels like a huge game for Zeke (assuming his QB plays).
Darrell Handerson has been a regular feature in this section, and against a Texans defense that’s already allowed 7 rushing scores on the season, let’s fire him up again. I do think he will be watching from the sidelines at some point in the second half, but the damage will be done.
The Eagles have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs, and part of that generosity is that they’re giving up on average 7 receptions to the position per game. Enter D’Andre Swift, the best pass-catching back in the league. That’s a Ride, folks. I’m late to the party on Swift.
A couple more RBs I like this week: James Robinson against a Seattle defense that’s allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and Elijah Mitchell at the Bears.
And let’s go with a quartet of RB Sleepers of the Week: Chuba Hubbard at the Falcons and Kenneth Gainwell at the Lions should each see plenty of work in both the running and passing game. More rhetorical questions: Why is Zack Moss the RB 26 this week? I like him against a bad Miami defense, in a game the Bills should dominate from start to finish. And if you’re desperate, I think Sony Michel is a deep sleeper who you can throw a dart at this week - he should see enough work salting away a lead to give you something, and he has a decent chance to find the end zone. That’s not bad for the 45th ranked RB.
The Fades:
I realize I risk being wrong on Myles Gaskin for the 5th straight week, which must be some kind of record, and I’m probably going to end up starting him in my flex spot because of the Davante Adams situation. But even with no Malcolm Brown, Gaskin against the Bills? Come on, I have to be right this time. At least if he does well I’ll get the points.
I’ve been riding Lenny Fournette, and it’s been a gold mine, but I don’t like the matchup against the Saints 3rd ranked run defense, and I think Ronald Jones might get a little more work this week. His RB 15 ranking looks high to me.
Nick Chubb is expected back and is ranked inside the top 15 for the week. If he suits up, I don’t envision him getting his normal workload right away, plus the Steelers have allowed just 1 TD to an RB all season. I’m fading him.
I think both Bronco RBs will have an OK floor in this one, but I’ve got them both as Fades because they split the work down the middle, which lowers the ceiling on both, and the way to attack the WFT defense is through the air and I think Denver will try to do just that.
In the same game, I’m staying away from Antonio Gibson. He’s had 16 or fewer touches in all but 2 games this season, he’s only caught 14 passes in 7 games, and I think Denver will focus on stopping the run this week after what the Browns did to them last Thursday. He is my RB Fade of the Week.
I don’t need to tell you to sit Mike Davis. But I’m saying it anyway - sit Mike Davis. He’s the backup, and it’s not a good matchup in any case.
WR
Rides:
Deebo Samuel is my WR Ride of the Week. Why? Because he has been a top 5 WR with Jimmy G as the 49ers QB, and the Bears have allowed the third most fantasy points to WRs, and a league-worst 12 TDs to the position. Samuel is ranked just outside the top 5 this week and I like him for an easy top 5 finish.
Michael Pittman Jr. is ranked outside the top 20 this week, but I like him for a top 20 finish against a Tennessee defense that has allowed the most catches, yards and fantasy points to WRs this season. And as I said above when discussing Wentz, the Colts are going to need to score points to keep up with the Titans.
Courtland Sutton is also ranked outside the top 20 this week. You’ve heard enough about how bad the WFT pass defense is, so he is also a Ride. I think the return of Jerry Jeudy will help him.
Adam Thielen is the WR20 this week. The Cowboys have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs, and I like Thielen to add to his total of 5 TDs (which he has scored in just 6 games).
I think Chris Godwin is going to be busy this week, and should see his biggest target share of the season. Antonio Brown is unlikely to play, and I think Mike Evans is going to see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, which has often been the case when these division rivals meet.
A.J. Brown was our WR Ride of the Week last week and let’s ride him again - he is healthy now and I don’t think the Colts can handle him.
A few lower-ranked WRs I like this week, to outperform those rankings: Sterling Shepard at the Chiefs (assuming he plays), Emmanuel Sanders vs. Miami (our WR Sleeper of the Week), Marvin Jones, Jr. at the Seahawks, and if you’re desperate, Marquez Callaway vs. the Bucs, who is ranked all the way down in the low 40s.
Fades:
The Jaguars are going to provide less resistance than the Saints, but I’m still staying away from Tyler Lockett until Russ is back.
This one works every week: Fade OBJ, and also Allen Robinson. The weekly rankings have caught up to their lack of production, but still, they’re both big name WRs.
I’d continue to sit Julio Jones, who has only had 1 good game so far this year and this might be as healthy as that hamstring gets - which is somewhere less than 100%.
Corey Davis is a pretty easy fade. Mike White is starting at QB for the Jets.
Jakobi Meyers is a Fade this week against a Chargers D that is dead last against the run but has allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to WRs. My guess is the Pats will run as much as they can and that the passing will be funnelled to the RBs and TEs.
Brandin Cooks will see targets galore as he always does, but the Texans are a mess, plus he will also see a lot of Jalen Ramsey and I just don’t see him doing much in this one - fade him.
Many will be tempted to start Randall Cobb tonight, with Adams and Lazard out. But Cobb is the type of WR who benefits from having big-play WRs on the outside that create space for him in the short and intermediate areas. This is a bit contrarian but I would be careful about firing him up - he is a Fade for me and I think the Green Bay offense is going to struggle in this game, with Aaron Jones being the top target in the passing game.
The WR Fade of the Week should be someone ranked inside the top 16 - otherwise it’s too easy and kind of meaningless. I’ll go with Mike Evans. A TD won’t surprise me, and you’re starting him. In 2 games vs. the Saints last year he only caught 5 balls for 66 yards, but he did have a 1 yard TD grab.
TE
Rides:
The Chargers defense is an interesting study in extremes, from a fantasy perspective. They’ve allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs, the 2nd fewest fantasy points to WRs, and the most fantasy points to TEs. Huh? Anyway, I think you can see where I’m headed. Hunter Henry, who has scored in 4 straight and is going against his former team, is my TE Ride of the Week.
Robert Tonyan, ranked outside the top 10 TEs, is a tough call this week. On the one hand, the Packers are very short handed at WR and he figures to be more heavily targeted, but on the other, the Cardinals have not allowed a TE to score so far this year and they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They also haven’t played against a lot of quality tight ends. I think Tonyan will do enough on Thursday night to finish as a top 10 TE this week. Ride him.
Two more TEs that I am riding this week: T.J. Hockenson and Tyler Higbee. The Texans and Eagles are tied (with the Ravens) in allowing the most TDs to TEs this year (6), and I like both of these matchups.
Dallas Goedart did pretty well as our TE Ride of the Week last week (he led his team in receiving yards, and caught a 2-Pt pass), and I think he can put up even better numbers at Detroit. The Ertz trade cemented him as a mid-range TE1.
Evan Engram has had a disappointing season so far (what else is new), and he is the subject of trade rumors as the deadline approaches. Assuming he is still a Giant on Monday, I like him to best his TE15 ranking for the week on MNF against a generous Chiefs defense that’s allowed the 5th most points to TEs, and especially with the Giants still missing some WRs.
I don’t feel great about this one, because it means relying on Geno Smith, but Gerald Everett is my TE Sleeper of the Week. The Jaguars are another team that’s been very generous to the TE position (4th most fantasy points allowed), and I can see Smith trying to get some easy, shorter throws to a big target.
Fades:
You probably need to start RSJ if you have him as your TE1, and he has been delivering for you. But this week, I don’t like the matchup at Denver, against a defense that hasn’t allowed a TE to score yet this year and is top 5 against the position. He is my TE Fade of the Week.
Jared Cook. New England has allowed a league low 18 catches to TEs this year. I’d look elsewhere.
Cole Kmet had his best game as a pro last week, but this passing offense is a mess and the 49ers won’t make things easy. Fade him, along with the entire Bears air attack.
I think Steelers rookie Pat Friermuth, who they took in the 2nd round, is a player to stash for the second half of the season. I picked him up on waivers 2 weeks ago and I’m feeling good about it. We saw a glimpse of what he can be in this offense in the Week 6 game (7 catches for 68 yards). And with JuJu out, the opportunities will be there. I just don’t like the matchup this week against the Browns.
Good luck to all in Week 8. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly fantasy recap.
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DH