Quarterbacks, Part II - Mining For a Fantasy Diamond

(Posted August 3, 2021)

Something remarkable has happened in each of the last three football seasons that you may not have noticed. In the weeks before every season, an army of fantasy experts and analysts compile list after list of who they expect will be the top point-getters for that year, both overall and at each specific position. But for three straight seasons and counting, the #1 overall scorer in fantasy football was a player who was way down on these lists and who, relatively speaking, came out of nowhere to plant his flag at the top of Fantasy Mountain. 

Specifically, in 2018 Patrick Mahomes, coming off a rookie season where he sat behind Alex Smith and learned, only played one game, and did not throw a single TD, had an average draft position (ADP) as well as an Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) in the range of QB 15-16 when fantasy drafting ended at the start of the 2018 season. The corresponding ADP/ECR ranges at the same point in the calendar for Lamar Jackson in 2019 and Josh Allen in 2020 were around QB 14-16 and QB 10-12, respectively. This means that in each case, almost nobody foresaw the extent of the monster breakout that was about to be unleashed on the rest of the NFL. In the vast majority of season-long drafts for 2018 and 2019, the eventual #1 player in fantasy for that season was firmly outside of the overall top 100 rankings, and last season that player fell outside the top 75. What those rankings mean in practice on draft day is that these three players came off the board well into the later rounds in a snake draft and went for a price of just a few dollars in an auction draft. That’s what is known in fantasy circles as ridiculous value - and in many fantasy leagues, league-winning value.

What happens when you get that kind of gigantically outsized return for so little draft capital at the QB position? Well, assuming the rest of your draft is even moderately competent, and barring very bad injury luck, you’re going to have a big advantage over the rest of your league at other positions, and that stud QB that you stole for a bargain-basement price is going to help provide a very nice weekly floor. Trust me, I know, because that’s exactly what happened to me the last two seasons. I only wish it had been three.

I will be the first to admit that I got lucky in how the Jackson ‘19 and Allen ‘20 picks turned out. Massive fantasy breakouts right to the top of the QB position are rare, even though it just happened three times in a row, and it is obviously difficult to predict emergence to the fantasy elite. Moreover, 2019 Jackson and 2020 Allen stayed healthy despite a very heavy dose of rushing (more than 100 carries for each). 

In terms of drafting strategy (which we love to discuss here at the Pigskin Papers), taking a young, unproven breakout candidate to be your starting QB is risky, and I recommend a strategy that was discussed in Part I of this series, namely pairing the young QB with a more established, “safe” veteran QB and maybe even slightly overpaying for that backup to help ensure viability at the position. But that strategy is not foolproof and you can end up with two risky plays at the position, or streaming at the position - in both cases putting yourself at a disadvantage vs. those owners who used their draft capital to take a proven, stud QB in the top tier. And the deeper your league is, the riskier the strategy gets because the pool of safer QBs that you’d be comfortable starting week-to-week thins out much faster, and the pool of streamers is weaker. 

So as we look at the QB landscape for 2021, let’s see if there another “diamond in the rough” QB who right now is sitting outside the top ten in ADP/ECR and therefore might be available later in drafts, and who could conceivably end the season as a league-winner who is the #1 player in fantasy football. Can this happen four years in a row? Could we even get a top 3 QB finish from a QB in this group? Sadly, I think the answer to all of these questions is probably no, partly because I don’t see the requisite combination of talent and situation for that kind of elite production, plus the position is loaded with studs and it is a very tough top 3 to crack. But I do think that there are some QBs currently ranked outside the top 10 at the position who could end up putting up a top 10 season, and the rest of this article will look at those potential breakouts. But first - these 11 quarterbacks are ineligible for discussion, as they routinely show up in ADP and/or ECR top 10s right now: Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Prescott, Wilson, Rodgers, Herbert, Brady, Tannehill, and Stafford. 

First up, Jalen Hurts of the Eagles. Of all the QBs currently ranked outside the top 10, he presents the best combination of a true dual threat fantasy QB and a clear path to start all 17 games. Jackson, Allen and Kyler Murray have shown us in the last few years just how much a high rushing floor can return in fantasy value. QBs who regularly have their number called on designed runs, make chunk yards on scrambles, and can add 6-10 rushing TDs per season start with a very big scoring advantage in fantasy over QBs who don’t. Hurts has an ADP/ECR right now of right around QB 11-12, so clearly the fantasy community is learning to place a much higher value on running QBs after witnessing the production of Jackson, Allen and Murray. That ranking is as high as it is specifically because of what those players have done in fantasy, and Hurts is a classic case of a player who for this season likely is going to be a much better fantasy QB than actual NFL QB. No matter - fantasy production is what we care about. In the four games he started last year, Hurts ran for almost 90 yards per game, and chipped in 3 TDs on the ground - numbers that project to a very high rushing floor over a full season. He is a gifted runner but he struggled often as a passer in those four starts, and the Eagles still have a lot of questions with their revamped O line and skill position groups. Heisman trophy winner Devonta Smith, who played with Hurts for a time at Alabama, should help him out a lot, although news just broke that he is going to miss a few weeks with a knee sprain - hard to believe an Eagles WR is already hurt (sarcasm*). Throw in that the Eagles might be playing from behind a fair amount, and Hurts should have the best chance of any QB currently outside the top 10 to sneak into it - and his ADP/ECR, which right now is about the same as Allen’s was last year by the beginning of September, reflects that. This is not a particularly bold call.

Next up is another second-year player, Joe Burrow (ADP/ECR in the 13-15 range). Burrow was putting up pretty solid numbers for a rookie signal-caller before his season abruptly ended with a gruesome knee injury in his tenth game. Burrow is not a runner like Hurts but he is athletic and chipped in 142 rushing yards and 3 TDs in his 10 starts, alongside almost 2,700 yards and 13 TDs. He was not setting the world on fire like fellow rookie Justin Herbert, but was a borderline starter in a 12 team league. The Bengals took Ja’Marr Chase with the 5th overall pick, and pairing him with Tyler Boyd and second year receiver Tee Higgins gives Burrow an exciting WR corps to go with a very good back in Joe Mixon. But Burrow ran for his life as a rookie, and the Bengals’ line is still a weakness and a work in progress - not what you want with a QB who is coming off a major lower body injury. Burrow will likely be more tentative in the pocket early in the season and even with his improved weapons and a year under his belt I just don’t see him taking the leap this year. I do like him to perform at about his ranking.

A player I have my eye on is Baker Mayfield (ADP/ECR range of 16-18). Mayfield quietly was 7th in fantasy points among QBs over the final 5 weeks last season, and his 2020 numbers are skewed a bit by three truly awful weather games. He is on an ascending team with an excellent line and a lot of talent around him on offense. What I think will hold him back some is that he doesn’t add that much as a runner, and Cleveland’s duo of star running backs are so good at finding the end zone on runs. Mayfield might be a guy who is better as an NFL QB than a fantasy QB, but I think he will arrive as an upper echelon QB in 2021 and that could translate to a top 10 fantasy finish. 

And what of the 5 rookies taken in the first round in the 2021 draft? Well, I don’t think any will crack the top 10, but Trevor Lawrence (ADP/ECR range of 13-15) presents the most impressive combination of talent and a clear path to starting all 17 games. Yet he is a rookie, and Justin Herbert aside, you don’t often see rookie QBs with elite fantasy production, and not only is he new to the NFL but so is his head coach. I do like the supporting cast, and his ability to add value with his legs. But I would be surprised if he returned value much above his ranking.

Finally, let’s discuss three longshots. These are QBs whose ADP/ECR is currently well into the 20s, but who come with significant upside. In all three cases the team added noteworthy receiving weapons this off-season, which should surely help each of them to improve on last season. In smaller leagues they might even go undrafted, and if you draft one of these to be your backup, you will definitely want to have a reliable, safe play as your other QB option. These QBs might also be good looks in daily fantasy play as they should put up some big games at times. 

Cam Newton. It has been at least two full seasons since he looked good throwing the football, and who knows how long he can hold off first round pick Mac Jones. But of all the QBs outside the top 10, he is the only one with a high rushing floor and a #1 fantasy QB/NFL MVP season under his belt. Newton has 70 rushing TDs in his career including 12 last season, and he ran for almost 600 yards last season. The biggest risk is how many games he will start, and it might also be that his shoulder is just too damaged for him ever to be a competent passer again. Still, keep an eye on him.

Daniel Jones. I wrote extensively about Jones in Part I of this QB series so I won’t belabor it here. It’s concerning that he took a big step back in his second season, but there was some fantasy goodness at times in his rookie year, and he is a decent runner who should add around 300-400 yards and a couple of TDs on the ground. I like the GIants offense to be a lot better this year. Don’t sleep on Jones.

Tua Tagovailoa. Tua struggled as a rookie, and it is very hard to predict what he will do this season. There was a time when he was the clear #1 prospect at the position in college, but a terrible hip injury and Joe Burrow’s record-shattering final season at LSU derailed that. Still, the talent is there, and a number of things worked against Tua last year - the line featured three rookie starters, a lot of skill position players got hurt, he was less than a year removed from the injury and was probably hesitant to run, and 2020 was tough for rookies because of the lack of a regular preseason and training camp.  All true, but still, Tua looked lost and overwhelmed at times and got benched mid-game more than once. That said, there is definitely a decent chance that with all of those factors diminished and with significant new speed weapons surrounding him, Tua can be a much better fantasy QB this season, outperforming his current ranking. Time will tell. 

And that’s it - happy mining, folks. 

Coming soon - Part III of this QB series - how to think about the dinosaur QBs who don’t run.