Quarterbacks, Part III - You Better Run

(Posted August 9)

Part I of our quarterback series took stock of the position for all 32 teams. Part II tried to identify potential fantasy breakout candidates for this year, and highlighted the sizable points advantage that dual-threat, running QBs have over traditional pocket passers. This edge is especially relevant in leagues that only reward 4 points for a passing TD. Each year, there are more and more starting QBs who can make plays (and earn valuable fantasy points) with their legs, and the position now offers a dozen or more players who are capable of finishing the season with at least 400+ rushing yards, 6+ rushing TDs, or both - and with a half dozen or so players offering significantly more upside as rushers than that, and that number goes up by one if Deshaun Watson is able to play most of this season. Most of the highest ranked players at the position (using either Average Draft Position (ADP) or Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR)) offer this rushing upside, and the nice floor that comes with it. So here in Part III we are going to look at some of the QBs that aren’t going to score a lot of points with their legs, as there is still value to be found there, and we will delve into how QB mobility can factor into your drafting strategy.  

People often refer to the modern NFL era as the Super Bowl era, but the game has changed significantly during this era that began more than 50 years ago. As far as the QB position goes, just in the last decade or so we have witnessed the final stages of an evolution of the “prototypical” QB from (a) traditional pocket passer who takes a seven step drop, stands tall in the pocket and makes almost all of his throws from there, and who might happen to have some decent scrambling skills to add to his arsenal, to (b) a more athletic, mobile weapon who is a dual threat to beat you either with his passing or his running. And with that evolution of the athletes who are excelling at the position in High School, College and the NFL has come a simultaneous evolution in offensive schemes at all levels, with many NFL teams now calling more designed runs for QBs, and some teams implementing and using with greater frequency some variation of Read-Options (where the QB can either hand off or run the ball himself) or Run-Pass Options (RPOs), in which the QB can either hand it off, run it himself or throw a pass.

While the NFL has always had plenty of mobile QBs who could hurt a defense with their scrambling, as recently as twenty years ago, most of the game’s top passers still fit the mold of the pocket passer who was not much of a running threat, and with the exception of Mike Vick, most of the more successful mobile passers from before, say, 2010 (guys like Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach, John Elway, Steve McNair, Daunte Culpepper, Steve Young, and Donovan McNabb, among others) would make most of their rushing yards on scrambles. The two preeminent QBs of the 2000s and early 2010s were Tom Brady and Peyton Manning - who won game after game by throwing from the pocket with precision accuracy and timing, coupled with unique understandings of how to read and beat a defense. Twenty years ago, the idea of a training camp QB battle between players as different in their throwing abilities and playing styles as Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill would have sounded crazy.

But that era is clearly over. Consider this - in the last five NFL drafts (2017-2021), 20 QBs have been taken in round 1. Of those 20,16 of them can run well, and a few of them are as gifted and dangerous with the ball tucked away as any QBs in history. Only 4 of the 20 - Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins, Jordan Love and Mac Jones - offered very little rushing upside. Two of the 20 (Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray) are threats to go over 1,000 rushing yards this year, as is 2020 second round pick Jalen Hurts.Trey Lance will also one day be a threat to crest that number, once he is the starter. That’s 100 points in most fantasy leagues. The position has changed right before our eyes, and for fantasy players, that has meant a whole lot more goodness is available at the position - as in potential league-winning goodness. The current consensus top 6 ranked QBs for fantasy (Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Prescott and R. Wilson) all offer quite a bit of rushing upside, to various degrees, with Mahomes offering the least of that group. In all likelihood, one of them will lead all players in overall fantasy scoring. It used to be that the top fantasy scorer was often a running back. Now, and in recent years, it is almost always a QB. In fact, the top 5 overall scorers this year (at least) will probably all be QBs. 

So where does all of this leave the guys who don’t run? What do we make of Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and even Aaron Rodgers (who used to add decent fantasy points with his legs but has slowed down considerably as a runner as he has aged)? Rodgers, Brady and Stafford are all being drafted as lower-end starters in a 12 team league, and Ryan, Fitzpatrick and Cousins are firmly in the top 20, as is Big Ben in some rankings, meaning they’re being taken as backups, or potentially as starters in very deep leagues and 2-QB leagues. In a 1-QB league, do you want any of these players as your starter, or your backup,when more exciting dual-threat players are available?

For my starting QB, the answer for me is other than Rodgers, not if I can help it, although I do recognize that it depends on how the draft falls to you and at the end of the day, you want to take the player who is going to score the most points on a weekly basis. I want a rushing QB and the high floor that comes with it, and I have gone out of my way to take a very mobile QB as my starter in every one of the last four seasons: Cam Newton, Cam again, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. I would always rather have the high floor that an excellent rushing QB gives you, even if the passing expectation is a bit uncertain going into the season - because that floor should help to limit the bad weeks you get from the position, and should also provide some very big QB scoring weeks along the way. 

As far as drafting strategy (a favorite topic here at the Pigskin Papers), I will always lean towards the better runner if it is a close call. For example, I would take Ryan Tannehill over Matthew Stafford (two players ranked very close to each other right now - both around 10-11) every day of the week. Do I like Stafford’s situation this season? Yes I do, and now that he is out of Detroit, has better talent around him and a very creative offensive coach, it is possible that he has his best season. 35 TDs is a real possibility. But part of why Tannehill has been a top 10 QB each of the past two seasons is that he has scored 11 rushing TDs in those two years, and he has added a point or two per game with rushing yards. Those are points you will never get from Stafford, and even with Arthur Smith no longer there, I think Tannehill should produce enough passing stats to stay ahead of Stafford in total points. Similarly, when looking at backups, if I have taken one of the top 10-12 QBs as my starter, and again looking at similarly ranked players, then I will go for the rushing upside with my backup, and would for example take Trevor Lawrence over Matt Ryan as my #2, and Justin Fields or Trey Lance (or for that matter maybe even Daniel Jones or Tua) as my backup over Cousins, Fitzpatrick or Big Ben. But note, if I were to take Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow or Lawrence as my #1 (in a very deep league), then as mentioned in Part II, I would probably want to pair him with someone safer and from the higher end of the backup rankings as my backup, like Matt Ryan for example. In that case, I don’t mind the lack of rushing upside as I don’t want to have two risky plays at the position.

Rodgers is different. In his case, the passing totals have the potential of being so big that the relative lack of rushing stats may not matter (which was the case last year - 48 TDs will do that), and I would expect him to have a few rushing TDs in any case. I also think his motivation to just ball out again is a big factor. And you could say all of the above about Brady too, although the passing ceiling isn’t quite as high, nor is the chip on his shoulder as big at this point. Still, if I am going to draft one of the top 10-12 QBs (which I may or may not do and it will depend on how the draft unfolds - my long-time league is a 14-teamer, so not everyone gets one of the top 10 QBs), I would rather use a little more draft capital at the position and take someone higher ranked who can and will score meaningful points by running as well as passing. The weekly floor (and ceiling) of these players is simply too good to pass up. The position has changed and with it, the value of QBs in fantasy has changed and the top players at the position, almost all of whom can run well, are generally worth the investment in my estimation.

That’s it for our look at the QB position. When we come back to look at it next year, expect the position to be even more dominated by the dual threat players, and expect QB scoring to be an even bigger piece of the pie for most fantasy teams. It’s a trend you don’t want to miss.