Quarterbacks, Part I - A Tale of 32 Cities
(Posted July 30, 2021)
With Training Camps opening, the Pigskin Papers is going to focus this week and next on the most important position on the field - Quarterback. And we are going to look at it from both a fantasy and an NFL perspective. In this piece, we will break down the NFL’s 32 QB situations into three groupings, and then look a little closer at some of the more uncertain QB outlooks from around the league.
Looking across the NFL landscape, the NFL’s 32 QB situations fall broadly into three distinct buckets:
1 - The majority of NFL teams are set at the position for this coming season with either an entrenched, proven veteran or an impressive young starter that the team drafted in recent years. In all of these cases, no competition for the starting job is expected and we have a good idea of what to expect from the starting QB, in terms of the real-life performance of the player, his fantasy value, and how his play will impact the fantasy value of the RBs, WRs and TEs who play alongside him.
The 18 teams that fall into this category are: AFC - Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City, Las Vegas and LAC, and NFC - Washington, Dallas, Green Bay, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Seattle, Arizona and LAR. Pittsburgh was the toughest call to include here, but if Ben can stay healthy I think we have a decent idea of what to expect. Note that two of these teams (LAR and Washington) have a new starter this year, but these are long-time veterans with a proven track record, and both teams have good talent at the skill positions. The consensus top ten 2021 fantasy prospects at the position all come from the upper echelon within this group of 18, and all 18 of these options should be seen as pretty safe choices. Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Ryan are firmly in the bottom half of this group of 18 and are all unlikely to finish the season inside the top 10 in fantasy points, but at the same time, none of them should finish the campaign much lower than 20th, barring injury. In many leagues they can be good weekly streaming options, if not weekly starters. And for those who end up not paying up to get one of the top 10-12 QBs, pairing one of these safer floor players with a riskier upside play from group 2 or 3 is a smart strategy. And finally, for those who play in 2-QB/Superflex leagues, getting at least one QB from this group of 18 is pretty much a must.
2 - Five teams (Jacksonville, NY Jets, San Francisco, Chicago and New England) took QBs in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and we expect all five of those rookies to either start the season under center or to take over at some point during the season. These are all by definition uncertain QB situations for 2021, in that we don’t know how these rookies will fare or how quickly they will adapt to NFL play, and we aren’t certain when or if some of the rookies will become the starter. We also don’t know what to expect in terms of how these players will impact the main fantasy options on their respective teams. The two rookies who are likely to start from week 1 (Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville and Zach Wilson of the NY Jets) have less uncertainty in terms of opportunity but both play for Head Coaches who are not only new to their teams but who have never coached an NFL game. But all of this uncertainty aside, all five of these teams believe they have their long-term answer at the position. Whether they still have that belief after this season remains to be seen. From a fantasy perspective, there are definitely some big upside plays here, and we all know what Justin Herbert did last year as a rookie. Justin Fields and Trey Lance are especially intriguing because of their rushing upside and floor, and Lawrence will also contribute with his legs and is the most highly touted QB prospect since Andrew Luck, but if you grab any one of these rookie signal-callers in the hopes of him being your weekly starter either right away or later in the season, it would be wise to pair him with one of the QBs from Group 1.
3- The remaining nine teams fall into a different bucket of uncertainty, for both this season and beyond - these are teams that either have competition for the starting role, have a young QB who has not yet shown that he can be a solid NFL starter, have a veteran who is new to the team and whose career has gotten somewhat derailed along the way, or are the Houston Texans, who have a star QB facing lawsuits and potential NFL discipline. These teams are Miami, Indianapolis, Houston, Denver, NY Giants, Philadelphia, Detroit, Carolina and New Orleans. In terms of fantasy strategy (one of our favorite topics at the Pigskin Papers), there are definitely QBs from this group of teams with significant upside for this season (maybe even top-10 upside), but again, it would be wise to pair any of them with a safer pick from Group 1. I will be talking more about Tua and Jalen Hurts, who at one point were teammates at Alabama, in a later piece in this series. This rest of this article will focus on four of the more intriguing QB situations in this bucket, from both an NFL and a fantasy perspective: Indianapolis, the New York Giants, New Orleans, and Carolina.
Let’s start with New Orleans, where for the first time in a long time, the team enters the season without hall of famer Drew Brees as its signal-caller. The Saints have been one of the NFL’s top teams in recent years, and have won the NFC South four straight years despite Brees losing arm strength and missing several games with injuries each of the past two seasons. Yes, the Bucs have clearly passed them as the class of the division, but the Saints still have a very talented roster. Their big question coming into this season is at QB, where swiss army knife Taysom Hill and big-armed, mistake-prone Jameis Winston are in a competition to start and are both likely to see significant snaps as the season moves along. Those who read my last column know that I am down on the Saints this year. I don’t see either of these QBs dominating snaps or playing consistently for the entire season, and without Michael Thomas to start the season and with little depth behind him, I expect the offense (including Alvin Kamara) to struggle. While Taysom Hill’s rushing abilities and penchant for running in TDs in the red zone give him a boost, I just don’t see a lot of upside with either QB compared to other Group 2 and Group 3 options, and plan on avoiding this situation entirely.
Moving on to another team - Player A was taken with the 7th overall pick in the NFL draft. In his first two seasons, he showed flashes, especially with his rushing prowess and downfield arm strength, but he struggled with accuracy and didn’t have a single 300 yard passing game. In advance of 2020, his third season, the team traded for a bona fide #1 WR, and in his third season he blossomed, putting up massive numbers, leading the entire NFL in fantasy points (or 2nd most in some scoring systems) and finishing second in NFL MVP voting. Player B was taken with the sixth overall pick in the NFL Draft. In his first two seasons as a starter he showed flashes as both a thrower and a runner, but turnovers and a failure to finish drives plagued him, as did a long string of injuries to his receivers and backs. Heading into 2021, his third season, his team traded for a true #1 WR and also took a WR in the first round. Player A is Josh Allen, and Player B is Daniel Jones. I’m not saying Daniel Jones is about to do what Josh Allen did this past season, and I do not expect him to. That kind of sudden jump from mediocrity to elite QB is rare. But let’s be honest - when the Bills first selected Allen there were a lot of detractors, and few saw his monster 2020 season coming. It’s too early to give up on Danny Dimes, and you can get him cheap as your #2 QB in drafts. This is probably a make or break year for Jones, and with Barkley seemingly healthy plus the two new receiving additions, I like his chances for significant improvement as a QB, which should help the GIants to compete for the division title in a pretty wide-open NFC East.
Now let’s talk for a minute about Carolina, who was in position to get one of the first round QBs but chose instead to use its second round pick to trade for Sam Darnold. After three wholly forgettable seasons with the Jets, Darnold has as much to prove this season as any quarterback, as he moves from what was one of the NFL’s worst situations to a very good one, in terms of coaching, offensive scheme, and roster talent. Darnold’s numbers so far are, in a word, terrible. It might just be that he is a bust, but remember that many had him as the top QB talent in the 2018 draft, and that he is younger than Joe Burrow, who entered the league two seasons after him. His offensive line is good and so are his weapons, so this is his season to prove he can be an NFL starter. I’m skeptical, but the opportunity is there. I don’t think you need to draft Darnold as he will go undrafted in most leagues. But keep an eye on him.
And finally, let’s take a look at the Colts, who would have been on this list last year with the addition of an aging Philip Rivers as their QB, and now make the list with their addition of Carson Wentz to replace Rivers. The Colts have been searching for a long-term anser at the position ever since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement. It’s easy to forget that Wentz was well on his way to being the NFL’s MVP in his second season (2017) before getting injured. Since then, just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, including a multi-year slew of injuries to the Philadelphia offensive line and backs, tight ends and receiving corps that is almost hard to believe. On the plus side, Wentz is now reunited with Colts HC Frank Reich, who was the Philadelphia OC in 2016 and 2017, and developed Wentz. Although they don’t have a particularly exciting WR or TE group, the Colts are a very good NFL team with an outstanding OL, a very deep and talented RB group, and they are loaded with talent on defense as well. This is a dangerous team with a good coach, so it is an excellent opportunity for Wentz to get his confidence back and right his career at age 28. From a strategy standpoint, I feel the same way about Wentz as I do about Daniel Jones - I like the upside, and the idea of taking him late in drafts as a second QB and pairing him with someone from around the 8-12 range of Group 1.
Coming next - searching for the next 2019 Lamar Jackson, or 2020 Josh Allen - does another Unicorn exist?
