Four Good Teams From 2020 That I am Genuinely Worried About

(Posted July 28, 2021)

Let’s take a break from fantasy football for a moment - I promise a bunch of additional fantasy content in the coming week, including a multi-part series that will look at the QB position from several different angles. For today, I want to talk about four NFL teams with double digit win totals in 2020 that I’m genuinely worried about heading into this season. With one exception, I don’t think these are particularly hot takes, and the posted over-under win totals for these teams reflect lowered expectations for all four teams. But even with those reduced expectations I am taking the under on all four teams, and it would not surprise me if two or more teams discussed below finish this season with a losing record.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2020: 12-4, current win total over-under, per Vegas Insider: 8.5) 

This one is pretty obvious, as the Vegas win total implies a .500 record in a 17 game season. The Steelers just feel like a team that is now firmly on the decline from an extended run of major success. We all know what happened to the Steelers in 2020 - they stormed out to an 11-0 record, limped home to a 12-4 finish, and then promptly got battered at home by the Browns in a wild card game that felt like a changing of the guard in the AFC North. Big Ben is now 39 and while he put up fairly impressive stats in 2020, his offensive line isn’t good, he looked scared and got rid of the ball faster than at any point in his career, and he is a persistent injury risk every time he drops back to pass. And we have seen how bad the Steelers’ offense is any time Ben is out. That said, Mike Tomlin has coached the Steelers for 14 seasons and has NEVER had a losing record. The team is loaded at wide receiver, just drafted the best running back in the 2021 class, and has a swarming and opportunistic defense that gets after the quarterback and should keep the team in a lot of games. This team led the NFL in defensive DVOA in 2020. The Steelers are a talented team and they aren’t going to suck. But the rest of the division is either already very good or is ascending, their schedule is the second hardest in the entire league per Sharp Football Analytics, and the team didn’t do enough to address it’s biggest weakness which is the offensive line - a weakness that gets magnified when you have a 39 year old QB who is not very mobile. I will take the under. 

Miami Dolphins (10-6, 9)

I love what Chris Grier and Brian Flores have done with this team, and I believe the future is pretty bright in Miami. The culture has improved greatly and there is a lot of young talent that should blossom over the next few seasons. But for this season, I am worried. While the team has added significant weapons and a major speed element at receiver with free agent signee Will Fuller V and sixth overall draft pick Jaylen Waddle, I am not convinced that Tua is going to improve enough this year for the offense to be adequately consistent. Tua created the lowest percentage of big plays of any qualifying QB in 2020, and played very conservatively even when situations demanded bold throws downfield. At times he looked lost. Moreover, the offensive line is very young and while it should be improved, it might need another year to really come together. The narrative I keep hearing is that this year, Tua gets a full and normal offseason to prepare, and that he is one more year removed from his serious hip injury which should give him more confidence to move in the pocket and make plays downfield. That’s all well and good, but until we actually see Tua moving this offense up and down the field with chunk plays, and creating points consistently, it’s hard to expect that result. I also don’t know that the Dolphins can count on another year where they are top 5 in turnover differential, like they were last season. This is especially true with their best defensive player, CB Xavien Howard (10 INTs in 2020) demanding a trade. As a Dolphins fan It pains me to say this, but this feels like a .500 team at best. Give me the under.

New Orleans Saints (12-4, 9)

It feels like the Saints have had double digit wins for a dozen straight years with the coach-QB combo of Sean Payton and Drew Brees thoroughly dominating the NFC South. And it is true that the Saints have won at least 11 games in each of the past four seasons - a dominant stretch. But it is easy to forget that immediately before that run, they suffered three straight 7-9 seasons. Yes, the Saints have plenty of talent at almost every position. The big concern, of course, is at quarterback, where for the first time in a very long time the Saints are unsettled at the position. Jameis Winston vs. Taysom Hill will be one of the most interesting camp battles to watch and in the end both are likely to see significant action in 2021. Neither one has proven that they can lead a team to a winning record over a full season, and both players come with a host of concerns. And I worry that this is the only team in the NFC South that hasn’t improved from last season. Throw in that WR Michael Thomas is going to start the season on the shelf and could miss upwards of 6-8 weeks, and that neither QB is likely to get the ball to Alvin Kamara in space the way Drew Brees did, and I’m out on the 2021 Saints.

Seattle Seahawks (12-4, 9.5)

This one may surprise and even seem a little crazy, but I am worried about the Seahawks in 2021. The trends are hard to deny: Every year that Russell Wilson has been in the league, the Seahawks have had a winning record and have finished in first or second place in the NFC West, and in eight of those nine seasons they’ve won double digit games and made the playoffs. Year in and year out, this is a very good team with a very good coach and an elite QB that finds ways to win lots of close games. So why am I worried about the Seahawks, and why wouldn’t I jump on an over/under that only requires them to go 10-7 to pay off? For one, I’m concerned that their defense isn’t good. For the first half of last season their defense was historically bad. They righted the ship mid-season (and getting Jamal Adams back from injury certainly helped) and played well in the second half, but the defense could easily be a liability. This team was also 8-3 in 2020 in games decided by eight or fewer points.  As noted above they always seem to pull out close games, but it is hard to count on that, even with Russell Wilson at QB. And finally, I expect the NFC West to be the toughest division in football, and as of now I think this is the third best team in the division. I expect the Seahawks to be a pretty good team that will finish right around .500 this season, so I will take the under.