Pigskin Papers Postscript Week 2
(Posted September 21, 2021)
Welcome back, fantasy footballers, for the Week 2 fantasy recap. We hope you had a big week, and didn’t run into Aaron Jones or Derrick Henry. Here is our schedule going forward: This column (the weekly fantasy recap) will appear each Tuesday, and the weekly fantasy preview each Thursday. We will also occasionally write about other NFL and fantasy topics, as we did yesterday.
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On to the recap. Week 2 (Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston, Corey Davis) reminded us why it’s important not to overreact to a lot of what we see in Week 1. At the same time, after two weeks, significant underperformance starts to be alarming. There is still a ton of season left, so we are going to wait one more week before firing up the panic button.
Injury Recap
We got lucky in week 1 with relatively few injuries. Week 2 saw an uptick, mostly at the QB position, but we are still fortunate in not seeing many season-ending injuries to key fantasy producers. Most of the injuries listed below are still TBD and some might be nothing more than bad bumps and bruises, so if you have any of these players, or players whose production will be impacted by their availability in Week 3 and beyond, make sure to follow the news updates. Here is who got hurt this weekend:
QB: Tua, Tyrod Taylor (already declared OUT for TNF, talk about a guy who is snake-bitten), Derek Carr, Carson Wentz (both ankles...really???), Andy Dalton (the Justin FIelds era starts NOW), Baker Mayfield
RB: Dalvin Cook, Darrell Henderson, and all of the 49er RBs who weren’t on this list last week: Elijah Mitchell, JaMychal Hasty AND Trey Sermon (let’s face it folks...the Shanahan system produces two things from running backs: great production, and injuries)
WR: Jarvis Landry, Diontae Johnson, Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf
And last but not least, Jets and Giants fans had their souls crushed...again.
Usage Report - Opportunity knocks! And it matters a lot...all totals below through 2 weeks
Top 10 Carries: Henry (52), Mixon (49), McCaffrey (45), Cook (42), Ingram (40, but only 14 in week 2), D. Harris (39), Montgomery (36), Mitchell (36), Gibson (33), J. Taylor (32)
Top 10 WR Targets: Lamb (24), Cooper (22), D. Johnson (22), M. Williams (22) Cooks (21), Diggs (21), K. Allen (21), Kupp (21), M. Jones (20), D. Samuel (20)
Top 7 TE Targets: Waller (26), Hockenson (20), Kelce (15), Pitts (14), Fant (14), Gronkowski (13, with 4 TDs), Cook (13)
Top 7 RB Targets: Swift (16), McCaffrey (15), M. Davis (13), J. White (13), Jam. Williams (12), Fournette (11), Drake (11)
What We Learned - Week 2
Narratives are starting to take shape, for better or worse. Here are some key observations through two weeks, in no particular order:
The Cardinals are going to score a ton of points, but outside of Kyler and Hopkins, it will be hard to predict who else gets the goodies each week
Lamb and Cooper, and Allen and Williams, are two WR duos that should produce all year
It’s a passing league - even near the goal line. Not only that, but few teams really lean on one back. An army of RBs had terrible stat lines this week. I am sure you noticed all of this while throwing things at your TV. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
Derrick Henry is fine. A lot of this week’s tremendous production came while the Titans were trailing, and now he is catching passes too?
Alvin Kamara is not. We said it before the season - the talent is undeniable, but between the move to Jameis at QB and Taysom Hill still being used in the red zone, his usage and production will suffer.
CEH just might never happen. You would think that a clear starting RB in this offense would have elite production, but that just hasn’t happened. Through 18 career starts - only 2 games over 80 yards rushing and just 4 rushing TDs.
There is no “big three” at tight end. There is Kelce, then Waller close behind him, and then a few miles down, everyone else including George Kittle who isn’t even #3.
TE is a wasteland after the top 7 or 8 guys - there are few TEs who can be counted on for a decent weekly floor.
The Vikings’ four key fantasy producers are going to give you points just about each week and that includes Kirk Cousins who once again is quietly a safe, if unspectacular, fantasy QB
The J.D. McKissic thing is happening again. He is the two minute drill back, and the obvious passing downs back.
It appears that every single analyst mixed up Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel this past summer
Tom Brady might be on some kind of mission to set a new passing TD record. And Gronk is his old scary self.
The Panthers appear to be the good team nobody saw coming - and their offense is producing. Cue Jet fans drinking whatever cleaning products they can find under the kitchen sink.
Saquon just doesn’t look right - he either doesn’t trust the knee yet, or he isn’t fully healed. If Chase Young can run with him stride for stride, that extra gear isn’t there yet.
Jared Goff is worth keeping as a backup - he will be the king of garbage time this year.
Speaking of which, T.J. Hockenson is that #3 TE I was talking about before (if it isn’t Gronk).
If he stays healthy, Kyler Murray is your 2021 league winner and top fantasy point scorer.
Jalen Hurts is going to have up and down weeks, and he needs to develop as a passer, but his rushing floor should keep him in lineups most weeks.
Stafford to Kupp is a thing.
So is Russ to Lockett - that TD combo is underrated and underdrafted every year.
Good for you, Aaron Jones. I think everyone in America was rooting for you last night. And Jones has less competition for RB work in the red zone with Jamaal Williams gone.
Curious to see how Aaron Rodgers does against a real NFL defense next week, but clearly he shook off the rust and the hate.
Based on what we have seen, I don’t expect Justin Fields to light it up right away and I would wait a week or two before considering starting him - he has a decent rushing floor though.
Mac Jones is managing a very safe, run-first offense. We will see if they start to open it up a bit but until they do, be cautious starting pass catchers on this offense.
Hollywood Brown is remarkably consistent all of a sudden, and safe to start as a WR 3 or flex, even though the Ravens don’t throw much. He has 10 straight games with at least 80 yards or a TD.
Ben looks old, and so does Matt Ryan. Hopefully they shake off the rust as the season goes.
NFL coaches are finally figuring out that going for it on key 4th downs is usually the right thing to do. Your kicker might not be running onto the field as much as you want.
GOAT of the Week: The actual GOAT had it, then King Henry seized it, but Aaron Jones takes it home. Touching story, and a remarkable 4 TD, 115 total yard effort.
Goat of the week: Lots of choices with so many RBs doing nothing, but let’s give it to Kamara, because among the guys who did nothing, he had the highest ADP and ECR.
Waiver Wire: If your league uses priority waivers, fix that this offseason. If your league does things the smart way and uses a free agent budget with blind bids, one thing to bear in mind is that as each week passes, your purchases buy one less week of production before the season ends, so using your dollars early has its merits. Top targets this week: Rondale Moore, Cordarelle Patterson (check position eligibility), Tony Pollard, Teddy Bridgewater, Sony Michel.
Facts That May Interest Me, and Only Me:
The Bucs have scored 44 points 5 times in the last year; before that, 5 times in franchise history which dates back to 1978
In a game where neither team got to 20 points, there was only one punt in the Dallas at LAC game
The Jets and Giants are both 0-2 for the third straight miserable season
The top two picks in the 2021 draft have combined to throw TEN picks through two weeks of the 2021 season
Matt Prater, who holds the record for the longest FG in history (64), became just the third kicker with two FGs from 60 yards or longer (Janikoswki, Zeurlein)
Going back to the Super Bowl, Gronk has scored 2 TDs in 3 straight games
Through 2 weeks, Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing by more than 100 yards
The Panthers have not allowed any points in the first half
Derrick Henry has had seven games with more than 175 rushing yards since the start of the 2019 season
The Cowboys won a game without scoring 30 points for the first time since 2018
Through 2 games, Lamar Jackson has thrown for 2 TDs, run for 2 TDs, and has 2 lost fumbles and 2 INTs
Lamar became the second QB (Colin Kaepernick, 2012 playoffs) to have a game with 200 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 2 rushing TDs
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 3 Fantasy Pre-flections weekly preview.
