Pigskin Papers Take 3: 2022 Week 3
Lamar Shreds the Pats
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(Published September 27, 2022)
Welcome to another edition of “Take Three”. Each week, I’m giving you 3 big takeaways from that week’s NFL action, each of which has a related fantasy component.
****SEE OUR WEEK 4 FANTASY WAIVER WIRE COLUMN HERE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-4 *****
Before we get to this week’s takes, one quick observation: We appear to have a lot of parity in the NFL. Through 3 weeks, almost every team in the league is either 2-1 or 1-2. For the first time since 2012, only 1 team has started the season 0-3 (Las Vegas, which made the playoffs last year). Only 2 teams are off to a 3-0 start (Philadelphia and Miami), which is also unusual. I suspect that over the next month the better teams will quickly separate themselves, but so far, we’re seeing a decent amount of upsets, very few blowouts, and a whole lot of close games. In Weeks 1-3, 18 games were decided by 3 or fewer points and that’s a new high for the Super Bowl era. On to the takes.
It’s been a disappointing start for the Top RBs
TAKE ONE: Defense Has the Upper Hand - For Now.
The season is young, but you might be noticing that the NFL is giving us a lot of tight, low-scoring games. You might also be wondering why you aren’t seeing that many explosive plays. You aren't imagining this - it’s real. Scoring is down to start the year. Last season, NFL teams averaged 23 points per game (down from 24.8 in 2020), and through 3 games, only 9 of 32 teams are scoring at a better clip than that. On the whole, NFL teams are scoring around 21 points per game so far in 2022, and if that held up for the season it would be the lowest total since 2006. This past week was especially low scoring, as 9 teams scored 14 points or less, and only 2 teams broke 30. This wasn’t a freezing cold weekend in early January - the weather was fine in most spots. The overs and unders split 8-8, but that’s because the totals offered were lower than usual, reflecting a needed adjustment after the unders hit at a whopping 68% clip over the first 2 weeks - that’s the highest % of unders hitting for weeks 1-2 since 1966.
Why is this downward scoring trend happening? The most plausible explanation is something we first heard last season, when scoring dropped from 2020 levels, and it goes a little something like this: More teams are playing a base defense with 2 safeties high. This alignment limits big plays, especially in the passing game. With fewer big plays available, teams are taking what’s given to them and going on longer, time consuming drives (assuming they can get first downs), and are ultimately getting slightly fewer scoring chances each game. The result is a drop in scoring. We’ll have to wait to see if the trend continues, and what the analytics say about all of this at the end of the season. It makes sense to this observer. Whatever the causes, the bottom line is that scoring is down again so far this season, and the sports books have adjusted.
FANTASY IMPACT:
Obviously, lower scoring means lower fantasy scores, with the apparent exception of Lamar Jackson (more on him in a minute), Josh Allen, Cooper Kupp and a few other fantasy supermen. I’m guessing a lot of you have been feeling that scoring pinch this season, and especially this past week. It’s an across the board phenomenon, but the group that’s probably underperformed the most so far this season if highly visible: The very top tier of running backs. Of the consensus top 7 RBs heading into the season (Taylor, McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Cook, Mixon and N. Harris), only 1 is currently among the top 10 RBs in scoring (Half PPR), and that’s Taylor at #10. We can get a better sense of the overall downward trend by looking at QBs, since their scoring also impacts, and reflects to a degree, the performance of the WRs, TEs and RBs who catch their passes. Through the first 3 weeks of last season, 8 QBs were averaging more than 24 fantasy PPG, and 13 were averaging north of 20. This year after 3 weeks? Those totals are just 3 and 9, respectively. I could give you more stats across the league and across multiple positions, but you get the picture. What can you do about this, as a fantasy manager? Not much, and my guess is that scoring will start to trend upwards by some amount - but it’s important to understand it. Your team may not be as bad, relatively speaking, as you think it is right now.
TAKE TWO: Lamar Jackson is playing even better than he did in his MVP Season of 2019
This is the Lamar we expected the last 2 years, but only got on occasion for a variety of reasons, not the least of which was injuries (and illness) impacting him and those around him. Through 3 games, Lamar leads the league in Passer Rating and TD passes, and he’s tied for fifth in the league in rushing yards. Not 5th among QBs - 5th among all players. He appears to be totally in control of his game, and is running when he needs or wants to, rather than as a designed feature. Even with a ground game that’s been mostly ineffective (besides him), he’s been destroying defenses. Scoring is down in the NFL as I discussed above, but not in Baltimore, where the Ravens lead the league at 33 points per game, and they’re 4th in total offense. With the secondary banged up, the offense needs to put up points and that’s what they’ve been doing.
An interesting subplot to all of this is that the Ravens still haven’t signed Lamar to a new contract. 2022 is the final (option) year on his rookie deal. The Ravens can thank the Browns, and the ridiculous amount of guaranteed money that they gave to Deshaun Watson, for making that task more difficult and more expensive. With Lamar flashing his once-in-a-generation talents once again, I think we all know what’s ultimately going to happen, but we’ll have to wait and see. For now, he’s making an early case for a 2nd MVP trophy - but there’s a long way to go.
FANTASY IMPACT:
If you drafted Lamar, congrats. You’re probably 3-0, and unlike everyone else, you’re enjoying hitting that refresh button on your fantasy league homepage each Sunday. He leads all players in fantasy scoring, at almost 35 PPG. Mark Andrews is again a top TE, which we expected. After that, Lamar has been spreading the ball around, and while none of the WRs is a top 15 performer, both Rashod Bateman (WR 21) and Devin Duvernay (WR 17) have been good plays - Duvernay has been an especially good value considering he went undrafted. The running game hasn’t gotten going yet, but as they ease in J.K. Dobbins he should start to put up consistent RB2 numbers. A couple of stashes worth keeping an eye on - Justice Hill and Isaiah Likely, plus Gus Edwards once he comes off IR. And if you’ve got Justin Tucker, just plug him in and enjoy the solid floor and the bonus points for long kicks. This is a very good offense for fantasy right now.
It’s Been a Rough Start for Kyler and the Cards
TAKE THREE: The Cardinals Are a Mess
Remember when the Cardinals were the last undefeated team in 2020, and were the darlings of the NFL? Remember back in March, when GM Steve Keim and Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury got contract extensions that shockingly last through the 2027 season? Well, things in the Arizona desert look a lot different right now. After a weird offseason that included one of the strangest Franchise QB contract negotiations you’ll ever see, complete with video game clauses, the team has come out laying eggs. The comeback against the Raiders in week 2 was impressive (or from a Raiders perspective, blowing that lead was awful), but the Cards keep digging themselves into impossible holes early. In the 3 first quarters of their games, they’ve been outscored 31-0. You can’t play an entire season trying to come back from double-digit deficits. Or I guess you can, but you won’t win many games.
I don’t know how much of it is the Head Coach and his staff, the QB (who can at times be absolutely electric, and at other times completely ineffective and seemingly disinterested), or just an overall lack of high-end talent. What I do know is that right now this is a bad team, on both sides of the ball. The schedule started very tough but is favorable over the next 4-6 weeks, and they’ll get D. Hopkins back, so maybe they can turn it around. But their abysmal play to start the season has probably been the worst of the 14 teams that made the playoffs last year - and a bunch of those teams haven’t played well either.
The Rams won the Super Bowl in their home stadium last year. After a very promising 2021 season, Cardinals fans had dreams of a repeat for their team in 2022. It’s not happening.
FANTASY IMPACT:
it’s been a little rough so far, for a team that came in with high expectations and high fantasy expectations for a few stars. But because the team has been in constant catch-up mode, it hasn’t been a total disaster for fantasy purposes. Through 9 games last season, Kyler Murray was the QB6, James Conner was the RB9, the offense was humming, and the team was undefeated. The season is young, but the fantasy performances are a lot worse - even with the team forced into comeback and garbage-time mode in all 3 games. Kyler is currently the QB9, and with his rushing floor he should still be OK, no matter how bad the team is. Plus as noted he’ll be getting some weapons back. Conner is the RB31, and with the team always trailing, plus some expected TD regression, that’s not all that surprising. Marquise Brown has been good (WR13), although not overly consistent. Matt Prater, who is one of the best kickers in the league, is tough to trust because the team keeps getting into game scripts where FGs might be off the table. My advice is to sit tight - with an easier schedule coming up and Hopkins and Rondale Moore coming back, this team has a chance to turn its season around, including the offense becoming a lot more consistent and productive. If they don’t, there’s nobody to fire, thanks to those extensions.
And….CUT!
DH
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