Pigskin Papers Waiver Wire- 2022 Week 4
Surging Jags: Lawrence and Jones Both Make this Week’s List
(Published September 26, 2022)
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Welcome to the Waiver Wire, Week 4. Each week, I’ll identify the top Waiver Wire targets and evaluate the short and long term prospects of those players. I’ll also do my best to identify which players who are coming off a big week are fool’s gold.
***SEE the Pigskin Papers Week 3 Recap: TAKE THREE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-take-3-2022-week-3 ***
Some of the players I’ll talk about won’t be available in your league. As a general rule, I list players who are available in more than 50% of leagues. But what does that even mean? A 10 team league with 6 bench spots will have a much larger free agent pool than a 14 team league with 8 bench spots. Most leagues fall somewhere in between. This isn’t “one size fits all.” I’m listing Trevor Lawrence and Chris Olave today, but I suspect they’re not available for many of you.
A lot of fantasy players are looking for help from the free agent pool this week, after an abysmal week for scoring in the NFL, and with injuries starting to pile up. Heading into MNF, only 2 NFL teams had cracked 30 points this week, while 10 scored 14 or less. If your fantasy team crapped the bed this week, you aren’t alone. My son is locked in an epic battle of attrition with the score at 68-64 heading into MNF - needing 4 points from CeeDee Lamb to get the win. My guess is there was a lot of that this week.
I mentioned injuries. On Sunday, 3 starting RBs from the NFC North went down with ailments of varying severity. If their backups are available, they’re all hot waiver commodities. For the record, while not every RB should be handfcuffed, D. Cook, D. Montgomery and D. Swift are 3 who should have been, based on (a) their injury histories, and (b) the past usage and success of their backups when they’ve gotten the opportunity to start. More on this later.
Reminder: During this early phase of the season, your FAAB dollars have some extra heft, since you’re buying players for what could be a longer stretch of the season. OK, let’s look at the Week 4 Wavier Wire.
QB
Trevor Lawrence probably isn’t available in most leagues, but if he is, add him. The Jags are rolling, and Lawrence is playing well. He’s a higher-end QB2 in Superflex leagues, and a decent streaming option in 1 QB leagues and especially with a few of the QBs who were drafted ahead of him struggling.
Jared Goff, who I also mentioned last week, is an attractive streamer for Week 4. The Lions play the Seahawks at home, so it’s a smash spot. Goff’s schedule is tougher after this week.
Jamaal Williams to the Rescue
RB
We don’t know how much time, if any, Cook, Swift, and Montgomery are going to miss. If they do miss time, these are all cases where the backup is likely to give you most of what the starter did, especially since they’re less likely to share touches with the third stringer. If you roster one of these backs and his handcuff is available, then I think you need to spend big and make it a priority to protect yourself. Others should also be in on this market. I like them in this order:
Jamaal Williams - even when Swift plays, he has a meaningful role and gets a lot of work near the goal line. Plus, of the 3 RBs that got hurt, Swift seems the most likely to miss games. Williams is a priority add.
Alexander Mattison - the Vikings have a good offense and in the past he’s been about 80-90% of Cook when Cook misses games. Even if Cook plays this week (with a shoulder harness), he’s at risk of re-injury.
Khalil Herbert - he was the RB1 in fantasy this week and has also proven to be a capable lead back in the past, on a team that apparently thinks it’s 1951 (they are 2nd in the NFL in rushing, and have only completed 25 passes in 3 games).
One more back to consider is Samaje Perine. Joe Mixon missed most of the 4th quarter on Sunday, although it sounds like he’ll be fine.
Chris Olave is Rising
WR
Chris Olave made the column last week, and he might not be available in most leagues. He’s been targeted 26 times over the last 2 weeks, good for over a 30% target share in each game. Meanwhile , Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Tre’Quan Smith all got dinged up in Week 3 and it’s unclear if they’ll miss time, but even if they don’t, Olave has carved out a nice role in the offense. He also happens to be talented. He’s a priority add if available.
If Russell Gage is available, grab him. Who knows if or when Julio Jones or Chris Godwin will be back, and if they’ll be able to stay in the lineup once they are. The Bucs will eventually be a prolific passing team that scores a lot, and Gage could end up being one of the team’s top 2 or 3 passing options.
Here are a few WRs that I think are nice adds for depth, with some upside, in the order I’d prioritize them: Zay Jones, who is seeing plenty of targets in an improved Jags offense, Devin Duvernay, who doesn't get a lot of volume but makes big plays and is benefitting from stellar play from Lamar (bonus if your league awards points for return yardage), K.J. Osborn, Romeo Doubs, George Pickens, and Josh Reynolds.
Devante Parker turned in a monster game for the Pats this week, going over 150 receiving yards. I’d be careful here - Jakobi Meyers missed the game, and Mac Jones left with a high ankle sprain that’s probably going to cost him a few weeks. It was great to see Parker break out, but doesn't feel like a reliable option.
Mack Hollins also had a big game this week, but the situation is similar to Parker’s - Hunter Renfrow missed the game, opening the door for more targets. Hollins isn’t a bad depth add, but I wouldn’t go crazy to get him.
TE
Tyler Conklin made the list last week, and after another strong showing (8-84, on 8 targets), I’ll list him again. He’s got 24 targets through 3 games - that’s the kind of volume you want at this wasteland of a position. The only caution is that the Jets will be switching QBs sometime soon.
Will the real David Njoku please stand up? After catching 4 passes for 39 yards through the first 2 weeks of the season, he erupted for 9-89-1 on Thursday night. Njoku was a big preseason sleeper this year, so maybe this is the start of something. Given how weak the position is, he’s worth a speculative add.
PK
I almost never talk about kickers. It’s a position that’s often a crapshoot. But if you aren’t getting what you want from your PK so far, consider adding Jason Sanders now. The Dolphins are at the Bengals Thursday, wrapping up a very difficult first month of the season, and then after that their schedule is pretty soft for about 8 weeks before it toughens up again. A lot of teams have byes through this stretch, but Miami’s bye isn’t until Week 12, which is also a plus for roster management. This team can move the ball, and Sanders is an accurate kicker with a strong leg. He’ll give you a nice floor for October and November.
Good luck with your waiver claims!
DH
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