Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview- Week 4
Is this the Week Brady shows up?
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(Published September 29, 2022, updated for injuries and weather October 2, 2022)
Welcome to Week 4. I don’t know about you, but I was pretty happy when the travesty that was Fantasy Football, Week 3 2022 mercifully came to an end on Monday night. Last week was beyond frustrating for many fantasy owners. How many times can you hit refresh and not see your team’s score change by more than a few decimals? There were no byes, and the weather was fine in most places, yet scores were very low, unless you happened to have Lamar in your lineup. Fantasy points correlate to NFL scoring, which is down again so far this year. I discussed the NFL’s scoring decline (now in its second year) earlier this week, in this piece, if you’re interested: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-take-3-2022-week-3 . Let’s hope this week brings us a rebound, and some fantasy bounty. We can’t have another week with so many remotes being smashed against the wall.
Speaking of low scoring, some of you may be close to panicking over the slow starts of some big name players. Going into week 4, these are the fantasy rankings (Half PPR) for some very prominent names, all of whom have played all 3 games: Russell Wilson: QB25, Aaron Rodgers: QB26, Tom Brady: QB28; Joe Mixon: RB16, Najee Harris: RB17, Austin Ekeler: RB 20, Dalvin Cook: RB 22; Ja’Marr Chase: WR16, CeeDee Lamb: WR28, Deebo: WR29, D.K. Metcalf: WR45, D.J. Moore: WR60, Allen Robinson: WR66; Kyle Pitts: TE15. Excuse me, I’m going to be sick, and I’ll remind everyone that it’s still a small sample size.
Enough doom and gloom - let’s jump into Week 4!
***SUNDAY 7 a.m. INJURY AND WEATHER UPDATE***
We have a lot of situations to monitor for Week 4.
Weather Report: The Pigskin Papers sends positive thoughts to those impacted by Hurricane Ian this week. The remnants of that storm are going to bring rainy and windy conditions, to varying degrees, to 4 of the 1 p.m. games: ARI@CAR, BUF@BAL, JAC@PHI, and CHI@NYG. Each of these host cities have slightly different forecasts but in all cases fairly steady rain is expected, plus sustained winds in the 15-20 MPH range with heavier gusts (in some cases up to 40 MPH). This could impact the passing and kicking games for those teams, so bear that in mind.
Early Game Reminder: MIN vs. NO - 9:30 a.m. Eastern start time.
Injury Report: A long list of players have injury designations this week.
QB:
OUT: Jameis, Dak, M. Jones (Dalton, Rush, and Hoyer get the starts)
IN: Herbert, Z. Wilson
RB:
OUT: Swift, Montgomery (Jamaal Williams and Herbert are SMASH plays), B. Scott.
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: CMC, Kamara
QUESTONABLE: PATTERSON
IN: Cook, Dobbins
WR:
OUT: ARSB, Chark, M. Thomas, K. Allen, Renfrow, Meyers, Toney, W. Robinson, AJ Green
DOUBTFUL: Perriman
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: G. Davis, J. Reynolds, R. Moore
QUESTIONABLE: Godwin, J. Jones, Gage, Z. Jones, M. Brown, MVS, Landry
IN: C. Watson, Gallup
TE:
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: Schultz, Knox
PK:
OUT: Santos, Seibert, Butker
QUESTIONABLE: Prater
*****************************
Week 4
Byes: None
Team offense report:
These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: 1. BUF (27.5) T2. PHI (27.25) T2: DET (27.25) 4. CLE (25.75) 5. CIN (25.5)
Bottom 5: 1. NE (15.25) 2. CHI (18) 3. NYJ (18.75) T4. WAS (19.75) T4. TEN (19.75)
Team defense report:
Are there defenses we can exploit, or that we want to avoid if we can? Through 3 weeks of games, these are the defenses that have allowed the fewest, and most, fantasy points to each position:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BUF 2. SF 3. CIN 4. HOU 5. TB
Bottom 5 vs QB: 32. MIA 31. WAS 30. BAL 29. TEN 28. DET
Top 5 vs RB: 1. LAR 2. TB 3. DEN 4. NE 5. JAX
Bottom 5 vs RB: 32. HOU 31. DET 30. NYG 29. SEA 28. LV
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. CIN 3. SF 4. NE 5. NYG
Bottom 5 vs WR: 32. BAL 31. WAS 30. TEN 29. LAR 28. ATL
Top 5 vs TE: 1. SF 2. NO 3. LAR 4. DAL 5. BUF
Bottom 5 vs TE: 32. ARI 31. ATL 30. NE 29. IND 28. MIA
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are what we like to call “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, or Travis Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works well for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Here we go, the Week 4 Rides, Fades and Sleepers!
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers came back down to earth in Week 3, after 2 really strong weeks to start the year. I’d describe my Week 3 picks as so-so. I should have just faded the entire NFL, and I would‘ve gotten about 80% of my calls right. Here were my week 3 prognostications: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-3 . I’ll try to heat back up again this week.
Joe Brrr is Heating Up
QB
Rides and Sleepers:
Joe Burrow is coming off of his best game (and first win) of the young season, and now, on a short week, he’ll face a Miami defense that played 90 snaps in withering heat on Sunday, that’s yielded the most fantasy points to QBs on the season, and that might be without Xavien Howard. Burrow is my QB Ride of the Week. Note - that’s only because I can’t list Josh Allen, correctly ranked as the QB1 for the week. He might break some scoring records against Baltimore’s banged-up secondary.
Tom Brady should rejoin the living this week. He’ll get some of his receiving weapons back, and the Bucs are going to need to put up points against the Chiefs. I don’t know where this game is going to be played, so the Bucs might not have their usual home field advantage. Still, I think this will be the last time Brady is ranked outside the top 10 for a while.
Like Brady, I’ve faded Russell Wilson a couple of times already this season and in both cases it’s paid off. It’s hard to recommend a guy who piloted 9 separate 3-and-outs in Week 3. I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from Russ, Hackett, or the Broncos. However, the Raiders have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to QBs, and I have a funny feeling this game will be high scoring. I’ll roll the dice this week with Russ. If it doesn't happen this week, hit the panic button.
Jared Goff is quietly putting together a very solid season. He’s a top 10 QB so far this year, but he’s ranked just outside the top 12 this week, and with a fantasy-friendly home matchup with the Seahawks on tap, I like him to have his 3rd top 10 finish in 4 weeks. [Saturday UPDATE - Goff is without his top 2 receivers, plus D. Swift - moving him down from “Ride” to “Neutral]
Marcus Mariota is my QB Sleeper of the Week. Really, he is. He’s got some rushing upside, and the Browns (at home) aren’t a particularly scary matchup and especially if Garrett and/or Clowney miss the game. If you’re desperate for a streamer or a 2nd QB in a Superflex, Matt Ryan at home against the Titans and Cooper Rush at home against the Commanders are deep sleepers you could consider. Both of those defenses are bottom 4 in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Fades:
Kirk Cousins brought his team back for an improbable win last week, after a disappointing prime-time performance in Week 2. This week, the Vikings travel to London to face the Saints, who’ve only allowed 2 TD passes so far on the season, and are giving up less than 200 passing yards per game. I don’t think it will be a disaster, but Cousins is ranked inside the top 10 and I think he’ll struggle to have that kind of day. He’s my QB Fade of the Week.
Tua is a player I’m definitely high on for the rest of the season. But he’s a risky play this week. He comes into the Thursday night game very banged up, on a short week. I don’t think he’ll play poorly - the Bengals have a strong pass rush and I’m worried that he may not finish the game. Throw in that Jaylen Waddle and LT Terron Armstead are also questionable, and I’d look elsewhere.
More Fades: Matt Stafford at the 49ers, Jimmy G in the same game, and do I actually need to say that you shouldn’t even think about starting Justin Fields?
Jamaal Williams: Smash Play
RB
Rides and Sleepers:
Austin Ekeler was a top 3 pick in a lot of fantasy drafts, and it’s been a rough start for him. Losing LT Rashawn Slater is certainly a negative, but I think this is the week Ekeler gets right. The Texans have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs so far this year, and they’ve allowed 100 more rushing yards to RBs than any other team through 3 games. I also think you’ll see a lot of check-down throws from Herbert as he continues to heal. Ekeler is ranked just outside the top 5 this week - he’s my RB Ride of the Week.
Jamaal Williams is a smash play this week, stepping into the starter’s role. He’s done it before, including last week, and already has 4 TDs on the season. He’s outside the top 10 this week and that’s too low - he’s a Ride against a weak Seattle defense that’s allowed the 4th most fantasy points to RBs.
Najee Harris is another high-profile RB who’s off to a disappointing start in fantasy, and those who spent a first round pick on him have to be concerned. It’s gotten so bad that he’s barely ranked inside the top 10 this week, even though the Steelers are hosting the Jets. They’re improved vs. last year’s 32nd ranked unit, but they’re still a bottom 12 defense against RBs. Part of the concern with Najee is that he isn’t completely dominating touches like he did last year. That’s likely to continue. Still, I like him for a breakout game against a bad defense.
Khalil Herbert started last week’s game as a backup and ended it as the top fantasy RB for the week. I have no idea if David Montgomery will be able to suit up Sunday, but even if he does, I think Herbert will get plenty of touches and is a good flex play, and if he doesn’t, Herbert is a must-start against a defense that’s particularly weak at LB and just allowed both Cowboy RBs to go over 70 yards. [Saturday Update - Montgomery is OUT - you know what to do - Herbert is a top 10 play]
Dameon Pierce vs. the Chargers and Javonte Williams at the Raiders - Ride them both.
Rashaad Penny is ranked outside the top 30 this week, and that puts him in sleeper range. The Lions have already allowed 6 rushing TDs on the season, and the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs. Penny is my RB Sleeper of the Week and if you’re desperate, you can fire up Kenneth Walker as a deeper sleeper. In the same game, Craig Reynolds is an intriguing deep sleeper.
Fades:
CEH is the RB4 on the young season, but that's an illusion - a small sample size during a period when so many high-profile RBs have struggled. He’s in a timeshare, and hasn’t been particularly effective, including a very ugly 0 yards on 7 carries last week. What he’s done is score TDs (including last week), which can be hard to sustain. The Bucs are once again a horrible matchup for RBs - they haven’t allowed an RB to score and they’ve allowed the second fewest fantasy points to the position. CEH is my RB Fade of the Week.
Dalvin Cook is a risky start this week, if he plays. I remember what he did last year playing with an injured shoulder in a harness, and it was impressive. The Saints are a tough, physical defense, and I could see Cook playing but not getting his normal workload. You’re starting him if he plays, but temper expectations.
Jeff Wilson is a Fade this week. The one team that’s allowed even fewer fantasy points to RBs than the Bucs is the Rams, and Wilson hasn’t exactly been dynamic since taking over as the starter.
Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers are also Fades for me, in the same game. The split is unclear from week to week, so the workload for both is a little hard to predict. The 49ers are also tough against the run, and the Rams still haven’t shown that they can run the ball effectively. I’m staying away and you should too.
J.K. Dobbins is clearly being eased back in slowly. I’d wait a week or 2 before starting him, plus the Bills this week are a fairly difficult matchup. He’s a Fade.
Pittman: Dominating the Targets from Matt Ryan
WR:
Rides and Sleepers:
Michael Pittman has been very busy in the 2 games he’s played, with 17 catches on 22 targets. He’ll bring the lunchpail again this week against a Titans’ secondary that’s already yielded 6 TD catches to WRs this year, and the 4th most fantasy points to the position. Pittman, who’s ranked outside the top 10 this week but shouldn't be, is the clear top target on this offense and he’s my WR Ride of the Week.
Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are both great starts this week. You know I’m high on Burrow, so it stands to reason that these 2 studs are high on my list also. Chase is too elite of a name for this column, so I’ll ride Higgins, who like Pittman finds himself outside the top 10.
Three WRs ranked in the 20-35 range that I’m riding this week are Gabe Davis at the Ravens, Devonta Smith (one of my top sleeper calls last week) vs. the Jaguars, and Chris Olave (ditto - see, I did get a few right) against the Vikings in London. Expect to see me mention these 3 names a lot this season.
D.J. Chark is my WR Sleeper of the Week. ARSB could be limited, and against the Seahawks, I think Chark has a chance to shine. [SATURDAY UPDATE - Chark is OUT]. Four more sleepers I’d consider (and for the deeper ones, especially in DFS) are Romeo Doubs vs. the Patriots, Julio Jones (if he plays) vs. the Chiefs, Zay Jones at the Eagles, and Richie James, Jr. vs. the Bears.
Fades:
Scary Terry McLaurin hasn’t been that scary this year - in part because the rest of the Washington receiving corps is vastly improved, and Carson Wentz spreads the wealth among his 3 main WR targets. The Cowboys are top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs, and the Commanders might be starting to swoon while Dallas seems to have found its footing after losing Dak in the opener. I think McLaurin will be OK at Dallas this week, but you didn’t draft him to be just OK, or just one of 3 interchangeable fantasy WRs on his team. He’s my WR Fade of the Week.
Allen Robinson is an easy Fade this week. Sadly, this could be a cut and paste from every week of last season, but it’s not. Robinson’s been invisible in 2 of 3 games this year, and the 49ers are tough on opposing receivers.
In 3 games, Rashod Bateman has just 8 catches on 16 targets, in an offense that’s leading the NFL in scoring. Not only is that poor efficiency, but those are low totals for a supposed #1 WR. The Bills are an unfavorable matchup - I’ll keep fading Bateman, who continues to get a little too much respect from the expert rankers.
Darnell Mooney was a preseason darling for many, on the theory that “somebody has to catch passes for the Bears”. Unless things change, and change a lot, that theory isn’t one they’ll be teaching in schools years from now. You can’t catch passes that aren’t thrown. The Bears have completed 25 passes in 3 games. That’s not a misprint. Until this team is completing passes at double that rate - at a minimum - you can’t even think about starting any Chicago pass catchers.
Hunter Renfrow will hopefully be back this week, but against a very tough Denver secondary that’s allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs, and with Mack Hollins emerging, he’s a Fade. [Saturday update: Renfrow is OUT]
No Joke - The Njoku Breakout Might Finally be Here
TE:
Rides and Sleepers:
David Njoku broke out last week, and this week the Browns travel to Atlanta where they’ll face a defense that’s allowed the second most fantasy points to TEs. I’m on board - Njoku is ranked outside the top 10 and he’s my TE Ride of the Week.
Dalton Schultz hopes to return from his knee injury this week and if he does, I’ll ride him, as I think Cooper Rush will continue to work the short areas of the field. His ranking for the week (TE20) reflects the possibility that he won’t be playing, or could be limited if he does.
T.J. Hockenson hasn’t gotten a lot of the bounty for a high scoring Lions team. I like him against the Seahawks this week, and especially with Swift out and ARSB potentially limited - let’s ride him.
Daniel Bellinger is so far down the rankings (TE36) I almost couldn’t find him. With their WR corps once again banged up beyond belief, I think Daniel Jones will find him just enough times for him to be productive. He’s my TE Sleeper of the Week. Want another dart throw, or DFS longshot? Ian Thomas vs. the Cardinals, who’ve allowed the most fantasy points to TEs.
Fades:
Tyler Higbee is this week’s TE facing the 49ers, so he gets to be my TE Fade of the Week. Through 3 games, the 49ers have allowed opposing TEs a grand total of 5 catches for 23 yards and 0 TDs. Wow.
Irv Smith has been up and down on the young season. Only the 49ers have allowed fewer fantasy points to TEs than the Saints, who Smith faces this week. I think the Vikings are going to struggle a bit in this one, and I’ll fade Smith.
Additional Fades: Cole Kmet (again) at the Giants, and Robert Tonyan against the Patriots.
Good luck to all in Week 4.
DH
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