Pigskin Papers Take 2: 2022 Week 14
Brock was Purdy Great in his First Career Start
(Published December 13, 2022 )
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Welcome to another edition of “Take Two”. Week 14 was pretty strange all around, including the fact that there were 6 teams on bye in the second weekend of December. The week started with a QB who just got to town engineering 2 TD drives in the closing minutes to eke out a highly improbable comeback win, and on Sunday it almost gave us one of the biggest regular season upsets in years. Meanwhile, the playoff picture came into slightly clearer focus.
As we head to Week 15, the byes are finally over, and for the first time since early in the season, every NFL team has played the same number of games (13). I’ve got a lot to get to, so let’s dive right in. Once again I’ll follow this format: Take One will be a series of takeaways and observations from Week 14, and Take Two will be an another edition of Fun Stats of the Week. Good? Good.
WEEK 15 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-15 .
Try, Try, Try to Understand, He’s a Magic Man
TAKE 1 - WEEK 14 TAKEAWAYS
We’ve seen some crazy comebacks this season. Of course, this happens every season. But when 2 highly improbable comebacks happen in consecutive games, and they’re almost identical, well that’s REALLY unusual. But that’s what just happened. The final game of Week 13 (MNF, Bucs 17, Saints 16) and the first game of Week 14 (TNF, Rams 17, Raiders 16) were eerily similar. In both games, the score was 13-3 heading into the 4th quarter, and the team that was leading tacked on a FG during that quarter to go up 16-3. In both games, the trailing team scored a TD from the 1 yard line with about 3 minutes left to make the score 16-10. And in both games, the winning points came on a TD pass plus PAT in the final 10 seconds. Say what?
Another thing that these games had in common is something I wrote about last week - a late, 2-score comeback being enabled by an offense that couldn’t get a critical first down when it needed one, giving the trailing team one last chance. The Raiders-Rams game would’ve basically been over if the Raiders could’ve converted a 3rd and 1, but they ran Josh Jacobs right into the middle of the line and the Rams stuffed him. As for what Baker Mayfield did just 48 hours after joining the Rams, yeah, it was special. Whether he’ll continue to play well for them in the final 4 games is anyone’s guess, but this is probably his last chance to show that he can be an NFL starter.
No, these kinds of crazy finishes to NFL games, or even 2 of them happening in a row, is not evidence of some kind of conspiracy, or the “fixing” of NFL games. I did see a few of those theories bandied about on Twitter, which should be a surprise to nobody. Highly improbable outcomes not only do happen over the course of a very large sample size, they’re expected. Run enough simulations of a coin flip and something highly improbable, like 20 straight flips coming up “heads,” is eventually going to happen - in fact, if it didn’t, then you’d have a statistical problem.
The Jaguars’ big road win over the Titans makes things a little interesting in the AFC South, and especially because they meet again in Jacksonville in Week 18. The Titans have a 2 game lead, but this one isn’t over.
Someone has to win the NFC South. The Bucs (6-7) are a game up on the Panthers and Falcons, who this week announced a QB change to rookie Desmond Ridder. The Saints are 2 back at 4-9. I’ve now given this division WAY more column space than it deserves. Here’s a thought, NFL. I know you won’t ever take away an automatic playoff berth for division winners, but how about just seeding all of the playoff teams based on record, and awarding home games to the better-seeded team in each matchup? There is no way the Bucs, Panthers, or Falcons deserve to be hosting anyone on WC weekend. Ugh, now I wasted more ink on this crappy division.
Brock Purdy and Mike White are great stories. Both played well in Week 14 (Purdy played pretty great, actually), and in White’s case, he showed incredible toughness in soldiering on after taking some truly brutal hits to the body. Will either of them ever be a legit NFL starter? Who knows, but each one is showing his current organization that he can play. White was a 5th round pick by the Cowboys in the 2018 Draft, and Purdy was the very last player taken in the 2022 draft. This isn’t quite “Linsanity” (not yet, anyway), but what’s going on with both Purdy and White is pretty fun and especially for the SF and NYJ fan bases.
The Dolphins and Tua are failing their road test, and it won’t get any easier traveling to Buffalo on a short week, with snow expected, and Tyreek Hill limping around on a bad ankle. Miami’s season so far has been one of streaks: 3 wins, followed by 3 losses, followed by 5 wins, followed by 2 losses (and counting). This team is in real danger of being the odd man out in the AFC. For those keeping score at home, Tua completed 10 passes (4 of them on a final garbage-time drive) to 39 for Herbert. Ouch.
On the flip side, I’ve been saying this for weeks: Watch out for the Chargers down the stretch. This is a dangerous team with a playoff-caliber roster. Whether they can get and stay healthy, and stay out of their own way, is another story.
Here’s how NFL “strength of schedule” can NOT work out.
The “extra” game this year for each AFC East team is an NFC West team, and vice versa. Each team plays a game against the corresponding team from the other division, based on last year’s finish. That’s the “17th game.” The matchups in 2022, again, based on 2021 final standings:
1. Bills vs Rams
2. Pats vs Cards
3. Dolphins vs 49ers
4. Jets vs Seahawks
To be fair, the Bills played the Rams when they were at full strength. Still, this is, to borrow from Stranger Things, the Upside Down.
The Cowboys dodged a bullet. They trailed the 1-10-1 Texans for almost the entire second half and needed a goal line stand with about 3 minutes left, followed by a 98 yard TD drive in the final minutes, to salvage a win. I don’t know if this was a case of them looking ahead, or not taking the Texans seriously, or just a very off game, but an effort like this is obviously a cause for concern. Dak’s penchant for turning the ball over is also worrying - he’s thrown multiple INTs in consecutive games, and it was a late turnover by Prescott that gave the Texans the ball at the 5 yard line, with a chance to ice the game with a TD.
That was a statement win by the Eagles, on the road in crappy weather against a bitter rival. Philadelphia has shown in recent weeks that they can beat you in almost every way possible. Jalen Hurts is now the betting favorite, at -110 or -115 depending on the book, to win the NFL MVP.
The 49ers are a very good team, and the Bucaneers aren’t a good team.
I told you last week that the Lions are good. They handled the 10-2 Vikings fairly easily, their 5th win in 6 games with the only loss being that Thanksgiving Day nail biter against the Bills. Jared Goff is playing great, ARSB and Jamaal Williams have been very solid all year, Jameson Williams adds a speed dimension, and D.J. Chark and D’Andre Swift are now healthy. Their collection of skill position players is outstanding. But there is a “but.” They haven’t been as good on the road, and their defense is still very vulnerable. Detroit (6-7) at the Jets (7-6) in Week 15 is huge for both teams. Lions at Jets is a late-season game with big playoff implications for both teams? Yup, we’re definitely in the Upside Down.
Pollard and Zeke: Coming Soon to an End Zone Near You
TAKE 2 - FACTS AND STATS OF THE WEEK
Ja’Marr Chase is only the second player to have 2,000 receiving yards and 20 TDs at age 22 or younger. The other is Randy Moss.
For the season, the Bucs are averaging a shade under 7.50 points per first half.
The Bucs have scored more than 22 points only one time in 13 games this season. Last season, the Bucs scored 22 or more points in 14 of 17 games, and 30 or more points in 9 of those.
Jameson Williams caught a 41 yard TD pass on the very first target of his career.
Josh Allen now has the most seasons (3) with 25+ TD passes and 5+ rushing TDs.
Allen also has 24 games with 1+ rushing TD and 1+ receiving TD, tied with Fran Tarkenton for 4th all time.
On Sunday night, Justin Herbert passed Andrew Luck for the most passing yards in the first 3 seasons of a career.
Herbert now has 10 games with 300 passing yards and 0 INTs, the most by any player before turning 25 (Mahomes had 9)
The Rams’ game winning 98 yard-drive on Thursday night was the longest game-winning or tying drive in the final 2 minutes of a game in at least 45 years.
The Lions, with 5 wins coming into Week 14, were favored over the Vikings, with 10 wins coming in.
The Vikings are 9-0 in one score games and 1-3 in games decided by more than 8 points.
The Vikings are 10-3, and have been outscored on the season 313-312.
The Ravens are 9-4 and in all 4 of their losses, they blew a lead of 9 points or more in the second half.
The Ravens had 150+ rushing yards on Sunday, the 10th time they’ve eclipsed that mark this season (most in the NFL).
Every team in the NFC East and AFC East is over .500, and every team in the NFC South is under .500.
Brock Purdy is the first QB to win against Tom Brady in his first career start (he is the 7th QB to make his first career start against Brady).
Purdy is only the second QB in NFL history to record a rushing TD and 2 passing TDs in the first half of his first career start. The other? Don Strock of the Dolphins, filling in for an injured Bob Griese, at home vs. the Bills, December 7, 1975. Fins Up! If you remember “Woodstrock”, pour yourself a tall drink.
Evan Engram became just the 5th tight end to have 10+ catches, 150+ receiving yards and 2+ TDs in a game. Other active TEs who’ve done that are Darren Waller and Travis Kelce.
The Eagles have clinched a playoff spot with 4 or more games remaining for the 3rd time - the first 2 times (1980, 2004), they went to the Super Bowl.
Travis Kelce is the 5th TE to surpass 10,000 career receiving yards.
The Cowboys have back-to-back 10 win seasons. The last time they did that was from 1991-1996, when they had 6 straight (and won 3 Super Bowls).
The Texans have lost 8 straight games. They also had an 8 game losing streak in 2021.
Tony Pollard has 10 TDs from scrimmage in his last 6 games, and Ezekiel Elliott has 8 rushing TDs in his last 6 games (Elliott missed 2 games with a knee injury).
D.J. Moore was held without a catch on Sunday for the first time since Week 1 of his rookie year (2018).
Mike Tomlin, who is in his 16th season as an NFL Head Coach (all with the Steelers), is in danger of having his first losing season. To avoid finishing this season with a losing record, the Steelers need to go either 4-0 or 3-0-1 over their final 4 games.
Tyreek Hill had 2 more TDs of 50+ yards on Sunday night, giving him 23 for his career - that’s the third most for a player in his first 7 seasons (Lance Alworth, 25, Jerry Rice, 24).
Hill is the only player in the Super Bowl era to score a TD 5 different ways: receiving TD, rushing TD, kick return TD, punt return TD, fumble recovery TD.
Hill’s fumble recovery TD run went for 57 yards, which was more yards than the Dolphins’ offense had in the entire first half (55).
Derek Carr is 4th all-time on the list of most passing yards through the first 9 years of a career.
Patrick Mahomes is now 10-0 against the Broncos, and he joins these QBs in having a perfect record against one team (minimum 10 starts): Andrew Luck (11-0 vs. Titans), Tom Brady (10-0 vs. Falcons), and John Elway (10-0 vs. Patriots).
Tyler Lockett has a receiving TD in 6 straight games, a team record. It’s also the longest in-season streak in 2 years (Davante Adams, 8 games, 2020).
Jerry Jeudy had 3 TDs on Sunday, after scoring 6 TDs in his entire career (35 games) prior to that.
And…CUT!
