Pigskin Papers: 2022 Waiver Wire Week 15
Brock was Purdy, Purdy Good in his First Career Start
(Published December 12, 2022)
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Welcome to the Week 15 Waiver Wire. For many of you, the fantasy football playoffs start now. If your season ended in Week 14, I’m sorry, but I hope you’ll keep reading anyway. Week 14 was a rough one, with 6 teams on bye and a number of players already out or getting hurt (and the Monday night game started with a big injury as Kyler Murray appears to have torn his ACL and is likely done for the year). The good news is that the byes are over and we’ve got all 32 NFL teams in action this week. The Waiver Wire has some decent options, so let’s get to it.
Before we get to the pickups for this week, let’s take a quick look at some of the teams with the best and worst schedules for the fantasy playoffs. It’s worth keeping this in the back of your mind as you think about waiver claims. Not many defenses are just plain old bad matchups across the board, like the 49ers and to a lesser extent the Bills and Cowboys. Some are strong against the run but weak against the pass, and vice versa. Blending it all together, and looking at the totality of the matchups, here are some teams that have particularly strong or weak schedules for the 3 weeks of the fantasy playoffs. They are:
FAVORABLE SCHEDULES:
NYJ (DET, JAC, @SEA); GB (LAR, @MIA, MIN); SF (SEA, WAS, @LV), KC (@HOU, SEA, DEN)
UNFAVORABLE SCHEDULES:
LV (NE, @PIT, SF), MIA (@BUF, GB, @NE), CIN (@TB, @NE, @BUF), SEA (SF, @KC, NYJ)
The Process: Each week, I try to identify the top Waiver Wire targets and evaluate the short and long term prospects of those players. I also do my best to identify which players who are coming off a big week are fool’s gold. I also try to identify streamers who might help you in a pinch. Note that this advice is primarily intended for Season-Long leagues, and NOT Dynasty leagues.
Some of the players I’ll talk about won’t be available in your league. As a general rule, I list players who are available in more than 50% of leagues. But what does that even mean? A 10 team league with 6 bench spots will have a much larger free agent pool than a 14 team league with 8 bench spots. Most leagues fall somewhere in between. This isn’t “one size fits all.”
Mike White and the Jets have a Great Schedule Ahead
Week 15 Waiver Wire:
QB:
Brock Purdy made a huge splash in his first start, throwing for 2 scores, running for another (all before halftime) and putting up almost 22 fantasy points. Purdy has looked very poised and competent in 2 games and is certainly worth an add and especially in Superflex leagues. Three notes of caution for this week: (1) Purdy is undergoing an MRI on an injured oblique, and the 49ers play Thursday night. As of now his availability for Week 15 doesn't appear to be in question but that could change. (2) The 49ers will almost certainly be down an important weapon (Deebo) this week. (3) Purdy has yet to take a snap on the road, and Seattle is among the loudest and most hostile buildings in the NFL.
Mike White continues to impress. He has invigorated the passing game for the Jets, including rescuing Elijah Moore from the fantasy graveyard (more on him later). White took some vicious hits from the Bills this week, but made it through the game. I’m assuming he’ll rest up and be fine next week. White is averaging more than 300 yards per game but hasn’t thrown a TD in 2 straight contests. That should change this week. The matchup is a good one - a Detroit defense that just gave up more than 400 yards to Kirk Cousins and has allowed the most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs. And the schedule stays very favorable after that (see above).
If you’re desperate for a streamer this week, you can consider this trio of so-so fantasy QBs, all of whom have good matchups: Matt Ryan at the Vikings, Andy Dalton vs. the Falcons, and Mac Jones @ the Raiders. All 3 defenses are in the bottom 10 in terms of FPPG allowed to QBs.
J.K. Dobbins Made a Triumphant Return in Week 14
RB:
Bam Knight, who I’ve mentioned the last 2 weeks, should at this point be rostered almost everywhere. If for some reason he’s sitting on your waiver wire, he’s a priority add. Even with Michael Carter back, it’s clear that Bam is the lead back, plus he’s got fresh legs. I already told you about the favorable schedule.
J.K. Dobbins is another player who shouldn’t be on many waiver wires, but becuase he came off IR without much advance warning on Saturday, he might be someone you can grab. Dobbins performed very well in his return to action, and with Lamar Jackson probably out for 1 or 2 more games, the Ravens are likely to keep leaning on the running game. He’s a priority add, and this week’s matchup (CLE) is a very good one for RBs (4th most FPPG allowed to the position, 3rd most rushing TDs allowed to RBs).
Chuba Hubbard is getting a decent share of the work, on a team that can run the ball. He’s not a priority add, but I like him for RB depth.
Jerick McKinnon isn’t going to give you 100 receiving yards and 2 TDs every week, or maybe any week ever again, but anyone who can get 10+ touches a game in the KC offense (which he’s now done in 2 straight games) is worth having on your roster, plus the Chiefs’ playoff schedule is favorable. He’s especially attractive in full PPR.
Rhamondre Stevenson left the Monday night game with an ankle injury. How this backfield will look in Week 15 is hard to predict right now. Damien Harris could be back next week, it’s unclear if Rhamondre will miss time (my guess is he will), and two rookies - Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, split the work after Rhamondre left the game and both played well. Of those 2, I’d recommend Strong first - he ran the fastest 40 of all the RBs at the 2022 Draft Combine and showed his speed on Monday night with a 44 yard carry, plus he’s the better pass-catcher.
Jordan Mason is a decent depth add, and if you have CMC he should be on your bench.
I’ve Got 3 WRs Named Moore in this column. This is Chris.
WR:
Jets, Jets and more Jets! I’ve mentioned Elijah Moore the last 2 weeks and now it’s a stronger recommendation. Mike White is getting him involved. Moore had season highs in targets (10) and snap share (82%) n Sunday. And i’ll say it again - check out the playoff schedule.
I don’t expect Chris Moore to have many more 100 yard games, but as long as one or both of Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are out, he’s got a great opportunity for volume, on a team that’s usually losing. This week’s opponent (KC) just made Russell Wilson look great. I added him and played him in a pinch this past Sunday in the Scott Fish Bowl playoffs, and his big day helped me to advance.
It was great to see Jameson Williams finally dress for a game, and then open the scoring for the Lions this past week with a long TD. However, it was his only catch, on 2 targets. He’s going to be eased in and is hard to count on for the fantasy playoffs. The Lions’ WR I’d add right now is a guy I mentioned last week - D.J. Chark, who has gone over 90 yards in 2 straight weeks. This week the Lions travel to play the Jets, and I can’t recommend either Chark or Williams for that one. After that things get better with the Panthers and Bears.
If Treylon Burks got dropped in your league, pick him up. Same thing with Jahan Dotson.
A few more WRs you can consider if you’ve got a need: DPJ (mentioned for about the 10th time this year), Zay Jones (who I also mention every single week), Rondale Moore, Romeo Doubs (ready to come off IR), and Ben Skownonek.
The Cowboys signed T.Y. Hilton on Monday. I don’t think he’s worth picking up.
Even Engram Destroys the Titans
TE:
Evan Engram’s monster game in Week 14 (11-162-2, on 16 targets) pretty much came out of nowhere, so this one is a little hard to trust and feels like it’s chasing performance. But we’re talking about Tight Ends here, and Engram was very productive (again, for a tight end) for a stretch early in the season. In his last 4 games before Week 14, Engram caught a total of 10 passes for 66 yards and 1 score. The Jags are ascending, and if you’ve been struggling to get points from TE (who hasn’t), Engram has a high ceiling. Fun fact #1 - Engram is now the TE4 on the season. Really!
Taysom Hill is an intriguing add for two reasons. First, with Mark Ingram out, he’s likely to function as the RB2 for the Saints going forward, and I’d expect him to get more than just a few snaps and carries each week. I expect to see the swiss army knife fully deployed. Second, way back in week 1, Hill ran for about 80 yards and a score in the Saints’ first meeting with this week’s opponent, Atlanta. Fun fact #2 - Hill is the TE5 on the season. Really!
I took my own advice and added Chigoziem Okonkwo last week, started him in the Scott Fish Bowl playoffs, and enjoyed his 6-45-1 stat line (even better, it’s a TE premium league). Even if Treylon Burks returns, C.O. has been trending up the last few weeks, with at least 5 targets in 3 straight games. The Titans don’t have a lot of passing weapons and again, we’re talking about the weakest position in the game.
PK Streamers, Week 15: Robby Gould (@SEA), Will Lutz (vs. ATL), Brandon McManus (vs. AZ), Cameron Dicker (vs. TEN), Joey Slye (vs. NYG)
D/ST Streamers, Week 15: GB (vs. LAR), WAS (vs. NYG), CIN (@TB), KC (@HOU)
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