Pigskin Papers: 2022 Fantasy Preview Week 15
The Fantasy Playoffs Have Arrived - And So Has The Hottest RB in Fantasy
(Published December 15, 2022, final injury and weather update Sunday, December 18, 2022)
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Welcome to Week 15! For most leagues, the fantasy playoffs start this week, so it’s win or go home for a lot of you. If you’ve made it this far, congratulations. I’ll try to help you live to see another day. If you’re eliminated but just love my columns so much you’re reading anyway, thank you!
*****Check out all the Pigskin Papers content from this week:
WEEK 15 WAIVER WIRE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-15 .
WEEK 14 NFL RECAP, TAKE TWO: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-take-2-2022-week-14 .
WEEK 15 BYES: None, at long last.
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INJURY UPDATE (as of Sunday, December 18, 9 a.m. Eastern):
Players already declared OUT for Week 15, Sunday and Monday slate: Mike White, R. Wilson, K. Murray, K. Pickett, D. Pierce, D. Harris, C. Sutton, T. Burks, D. Parker, C. Davis, N. Collins, B. Cooks, D. Goedert, H. Hurst
Expected to return (IN today): K. Toney, H. Renfrow, R. Doubs, D. Waller
Questionable, expected to play: J. Jacobs, B. Robinson, T. Higgins, Hollywood Brown, D. J. Moore, J. Meyers, T. Boyd
Doubtful to play: Julio Jones
GTD: R. Stevenson
WEATHER UPDATE : Weather shouldn’t be much of an issue for the remaining Week 15 games. For both PHI@CHI and LAR@GB (Monday night), temperatures will be in the low 20s.
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TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: 1. KC (31.75) 2. PHI (28.25) 3. MIN (26.5) 4. DAL (25.75) 5. LAC (25.25)
Bottom 5: LAR (16.5) T2. MIA (17.5) T2. BAL (17.5) T4. HOU (17.75) T4. NYG (17.75)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. HOU 2. PHI 3. SF 4. DEN 5. CIN
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DET 2. TEN 3. KC 4. LV 5. MIA
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. TEN 3. SF 4. BAL 5. DAL
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. SEA 3. CLE 4. CHI 5. LAC
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. IND 3. NYJ 4. HOU 5. SEA
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. TEN 2. MIN 3. DET 4. PIT 5. KC
Top 5 vs TE: 1. DAL 2. BUF 3. WAS 4. NO 5. SF
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. ARI 2. SEA 3. DET 4. MIA 5. TEN
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, Ekeler, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers had a strong showing in Week 14. The Fades of the Week (Brady, Fournette, Evans, Knox) were especially strong outside of Knox, and in addition to a lot of good calls on the Rides, I hit big on a bunch of sleepers including McKinnon, Hubbard, Chark, Thielen, Jeudy, and Okonkwo. Some of the other Fade calls were a little shaky, but still, it was an excellent week of prognosticating. Stick with me kids - I’ll try to stay hot in Week 15! The Week 14 scorecard, for those interested: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-fantasy-preview-week-14 .
Here Comes Captain Kirk
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
QB: The Elite Week 15 options: Hurts, Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, and Burrow. The analysis starts below those 5.
Rides and Sleepers: [Note: Mike White removed from the Rides]
Kirk Cousins is my QB Ride of the Week. Captain Kirk is remarkably consistent - a quality that’s hard to find in fantasy. He finished the year as the QB11 in BOTH 2020 and 2021, and guess where he’s ranked after 14 weeks? Yup, he’s the QB11 so far this season. He should change his uniform number to 11. Kirk has been good at home - he’s had at least 18 fantasy points in every home game other than the debacle vs. Dallas and the win over the Jets, and those are both very tough defenses. The Colts are a neutral matchup, but have faltered a bit of late, allowing 3 of the last 4 QBs they faced to score at least 21 fantasy points. I don’t see them having an easy time handling Jefferson, Thielen, Hockenson and Cook.
I’ll ride Dak Prescott this week. Dak has struggled with picks the last 2 weeks (2 in each game), and the Cowboys’ RBs have been scoring a lot of rushing TDs, so I’m a little nervous about this one. The Cowboys need to get back on track after last week’s flirtation with a disastrous loss, and I like the matchup at Jacksonville. The Jags’ D has allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs, and a whopping 21 passing TDs. They’ve also yielded at least 21 fantasy points to the last 5 QBs they’ve faced. Time for Dak to shine.
Moving into the teens in the weekly rankings, give me Aaron Rodgers vs. the Rams. The Rams aren’t the best matchup, but I expect a throwback performance from Rodgers in prime time, at Lambeau, in a game Green Bay absolutely has to have in order to have any shot at a wild card. Rodgers is ranked outside the top 15 this week. He’d qualify as a sleeper if he wasn’t named Aaron Rodgers.
Need a sleeper not named Rodgers? Matt Ryan is my QB Sleeper of the Week. The Vikings just got torched by Jared Goff to the tune of 300 yards and 3 TDs, and that kind of performance isn’t an outlier as they’ve allowed the 7th most FPPG to QBs, and the most passing yards in the league.
Other sleepers to consider, if you have the need, are listed below. All have plus matchups against defenses that have been generous to QBs: Ryan Tannehill at the Chargers, Andy Dalton vs. the Falcons, and Mac Jones at the Raiders.
Fades:
Tua is my QB Fade of the Week. It’s been a bad road trip for Tua, with a QB rating below 80 in both games (that’s noteworthy, since Tua went into this road trip leading the league in QB Rating), and if anyone thinks things will get easier this week, think again. Buffalo has been a house of horrors for Tua, and a night game in what might be bad weather isn’t going to be fun. Plus, Tyreek Hill (ankle) might not be at 100% for this one, and the O-line is pretty banged up. The Bills came for Mike White last week and they’ll come for Tua too. The Bills have allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to QBs, and in his 2 career games at Buffalo, Tua is 0-2, with 1 TD and 4 INTs. Neither game was close. Stay away.
I’ll fade Geno Smith this week. I’ve been fading whoever is playing the San Francisco defense of late, and it’s been the right call. Geno is at home and I think this game will be competitive, but I just don’t like the matchup. The 49ers defense keeps getting better, and has allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to QBs, and only 12 TD passes on the season (while picking off 13 passes). Over their last 6 games, the 49ers are allowing just a shade over 10 points per game.
Jared Goff has been a very pleasant surprise this year, but he’s definitely a spot starter in fantasy - with those starting opportuitites being almost exclusively at home. The Lions just finished 3 straight at home, and now we’re back to road Jared. Goff hasn’t broken 15 fantasy points on the road yet this season, and I don’t see it happening against the Jets’ swarming defense. Gang Green has allowed the 8th fewest FPPG to QBs, and only 12 passing TDs on the season, tied for second fewest in the league.
I’ll fade Tom Brady once again this week. That’s 3 straight weeks with Brady on the Fades list, for those keeping score at home. This offense looks broken, and the Bengals are a tough matchup. They’ve allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs and just 12 passing TDs on the season, tied for second best in the league.
Some of you in Superflex leagues might be desperate this week, since a few QBs have injury issues. Other QB Fades for this week: Colt McCoy at Denver (duh), and Baker Mayfield at Green Bay,
Pacheco Should Feast on the Texans
RB: The Elite Week 15 options: CMC, Ekeler, Henry, and Jacobs. The analysis starts below these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
Tony Pollard is my RB Ride of the Week. He’s been on fire, with10 TDs from scrimmage in his last 6 games, and he’s the RB2 over that stretch (half PPR), trailing only Josh Jacobs. Yes, he shares touches with Zeke, but that hasn’t mattered. He’s got big-play ability, and he does a lot of his damage on receptions. That sets up well - The Jags have allowed the 2nd most receptions and 4th most receiving yards to RBs. Pollard makes my Rides list for the 3rd straight week and he hasn’t let me down yet.
Alvin Kamara has been a major disappointment this year, with just 3 TDs, all of which came in one game. Well, there’s reason for optimism this week. The Mark Ingram injury means more touches for Kamara, and this week’s opponent (Atlanta) is a pretty mediocre run defense. I do worry about Taysom Hill vulturing him, which happened when these teams met in Week 1, but Kamara hurt his ribs in that game and didn’t get his normal workload. This is a green light game for Alvin.
Ride Miles Sanders, coming off a monster game. The Bears’ defense should offer little resistance in this one. Sanders has scored in 3 straight (and had more than 27 fantasy points in 2 of those games), and should find pay dirt again this week. The Bears have allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs, including 14 rushing TDs, second only to the Texans.
Najee Harris is in a pretty good spot this week, at the Panthers. It’s a favorable matchup and they can be hard to throw on, so Najee should see plenty of volume. Ride him. In the same game, the Steelers just got gashed by the Ravens’ RBs, and Carolina also brings a run-heavy, pound-it style of game. Ride D’Onta Foreman.
Isiah Pacheco makes the Rides list this week, as does pretty much any early-downs RB going up against the Texans. The Texans have allowed the most everything to RBs: carries, yards, rushing TDs, total TDs, and FPPG. They’re the fantasy gift that keeps on giving. The Dallas duo got them for 3 more TDs last week. Pacheco has at least 90 total yards or a TD in 4 straight, and should be in line for one of his best games of the season. Odd stat - the Texans have just one win but at the same time, they’ve have allowed the fewest FPPG to QBs. No, don’t bench Patrick Mahomes. A big part of that stat is how helpless they’ve been against the run. Jerick McKinnon makes the sleepers list for the second straight week as well. He should have his third straight game with 10 or more touches.
Moving further down the rankings into the high teens and low 20s, I’m riding Bam Knight vs. the Lions. He’s got fresh legs and is clearly the lead guy for now. With Zach Wilson under center, the Jets figure to lean on the running game even more. Also, give me J.K. Dobbins at the Browns. He looked good last week in his return from IR, and the Browns have been a great matchup for RBs for most of the season (3rd most FPPG allowed, and on the season, they’ve allowed an RB to eclipse 15 fantasy points 10 times). I also think the Ravens will run it a lot with Lamar still out.
Let’s hit some sleepers, for those who need to dig a little deeper. I’ll make Lat Murray my RB Sleeper of the Week, vs. the Cardinals. They just gave up 2 rushing TDs to New England’s backups, and are a top 10 matchup for RBs. A few more (in addition to McKinnon, mentioned above): Cam Akers at the Packers (yeah, I said it - they’re a BAD run defense, and he’s getting the work, for better or worse, and has 3 TDs in his last 2 outings), Antonio Gibson vs. the Giants, Rex Burkhead at the Chiefs, Gus Edwards at Cleveland, and Kenneth Gainwell at the Bears (extended garbage time is a real possibility in this one).
Fades:
Kenneth Walker is my RB Fade of the Week. He’s set to return from injury Thursday night, but I don’t know how big the workload will be. The 49ers have been very tough on RBs all year, and especially of late. For the season they’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to RBs, the fewest rushing yards and total yards to RBs, and just 5 total TDs. Again, they’re allowing just 10 points per game over their last 6 contests - that’s 1 TD per game, folks. Pass.
Somebody from the New England backfield is going to have a good game this week. Maybe even 2 backs will. The Raiders are a favorable matchup, the Pats can run the ball well, and their RBs are heavily involved in the passing game too. The problem is the high degree of uncertainty heading into the contest, with both R. Stevenson and Damien Harris coming off of injuries. Throw in that it’s a late afternoon Sunday start, and Belichick’s penchant for throwing curveballs with his RB usage, and I think the entire situation is one to avoid, unless there is some real clarity before Sunday at 1 (or unless you have later pivot options). PIVOT! PIVOT! If you don’t get that joke, you’re probably under 35.
I’ll stay away from both Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White this week. They’re eating into each other’s value, and the Bucs just don’t score enough these days to make either one particularly attractive. I don’t see that changing much against the Bengals.
I’ll fade CP84 and Tyler Allgeier at the Saints. This is a tough run defense, the Falcons are making a QB switch to a rookie, and they figure to involve multiple RBs. No thanks.
I’ll also fade Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. They also eat into each other’s value, and in some matchups that’s OK. Not this one. I think the Lions will struggle to score against this defense, making Williams less attractive since he’s so TD-dependent. The Jets have allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to RBs and they fly to the ball and hit hard. I think it’s going to be a long day for a very good Detroit offense.
Raheem Mostert should see plenty of volume with Jeff Wilson banged up, and the Bills have been somewhat vulnerable against the run of late, but I have a bad feeling about this game and Miami’s suddenly reeling offense, and I’ll fade Mostert.
Scary Terry Has Been a Fright for Big Blue
WR: The Elite Week 15 options: Jefferson, Adams, Diggs, Chase, T. Hill, and A.J. Brown. The analysis starts after these 6. [NOTE: Garrett Wilson was originally my WR Ride of the Week. He is no longer a Ride - I view him as pretty neutral this week, against a bad defense, but catching passes from a bad QB. Similarly, I originally had Elijah Moore as a sleeper, and I’ve removed him, but again, it’s a very favorable matchup and I think you can play both Wilson and Moore if you need them.]
Rides and Sleepers:
I’ll ride both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the Chargers-Titans tilt. Justin Herbert is really heating up, and this matchup is a great one. The Titans have allowed the most FPPG to WRs, and the totals they’ve allowed, which includes 18 TDs to WRs, are bad across the board. This should be a field day for the Chargers’ passing game, with plenty to go around. Williams is my WR Ride of the Week.
I’ll ride Terry McLaurin vs. the Giants. These teams played just 2 weeks ago, and Scary Terry had a huge game, with 8-105-1 on 12 targets, and that wasn’t an outlier. He’s had a ton of past success against Big Blue so let’s ride the trend. Meanwhile, the Giants’ secondary is very banged up and they’ve allowed 4 TDs to WRs in their last 2, and have gotten a lot more vulnerable to the pass as the season has worn on.
Moving into the 20s in the weekly rankings, I’ve got a big group of “WR 2s” that I like this week. I’ll ride Chris Olave vs. the Falcons, Christian Watson vs. the Rams, Christian Kirk vs. the Cowboys, Jerry Jeudy vs. the Cardinals, and Michael Pittman at the Vikings. All 5 have good matchups, and in the case of Jeudy, Courtland Sutton is likely to miss another week, so he should again be heavily featured regardless of who plays QB.
I’ve got some sleepers for you. Chris Moore came out of nowhere last week and put up a huge stat line and I think he can do it again this week. Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks are going to miss another game (making Moore the de facto #1), the Texans should be chasing points against the Chiefs, and you saw what Jerry Jeudy did vs. KC last week. The Chiefs have allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs, and the most TD catches to the position (19). Chris Moore is my WR Sleeper of the Week. I’d play Moore over a number of receivers ranked higher than him. In fact, that’s just what I’m doing with him myself as I plan to start him over Gabe Davis in my main league.
Need to dig deep for a flex or WR3? A few more WR sleepers that I like this week are Zay Jones vs. Dallas (we are almost at the point where he no longer qualifies as a sleeper), Michael Gallup at Jacksonville, Isaiah McKenzie vs. the Dolphins, and Parris Campbell at the Vikings. I’ll also add Nelson Agholor to the list - its’a great matchup and the Pats could be without both Parker and Meyers.
Fades:
This one pains me, but I’ll go with Jaylen Waddle as my WR Fade of the Week. Waddle hasn’t scored in 5 games, and he’s only caught 3 passes over the last 2 weeks. With bad weather in the forecast at Buffalo, and a very tough defense on the other side, I’m mostly staying away from the suddenly reeling Miami offense.
You know who has disappeared more than Waddle? Mike Evans. He hasn’t had more than 60 yards or 5 catches in 5 straight. He also hasn’t scored since October 2 - with is crazy when you consider that in his first 2 seasons with Tom Brady, he caught 27 TD passes. He’s had a couple of TDs called back due to penalties, including one last week. Nonetheless, the Bengals are no joke (6th fewest FPPG to WRs, and only 6 TD catches allowed to WRs), and I think the struggles will continue.
I’m going to fade JuJu this week. The Texans have allowed only 4 TDs to WRs all season - an amazing stat for a 1-win team. They’ve also allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to WRs. There could also be more competition for targets with both Hardman and Toney possibly returning. The Chiefs should win this one going away, and likely will be handing it off a lot in the second half.
I’ll also fade Amari Cooper. His hip injury is clearly hampering him, and so far, the chemistry isn’t there with new QB Deshaun Watson.
Hollywood Brown at the Broncos is a Fade as well. This pass defense is no joke - it’s allowed the fewest FPPG to WRs, and just 7 receiving TDs to the position. The Cardinals are also in a bit of a free-fall, and I don’t think Colt McCoy can stop it, on the road in Denver.
D.J. Moore was held without a catch last week for the first time since his very first NFL game, and now he’s banged up and facing a rejuvenated Steelers’ pass defense. His team is also extremely run-heavy of late, with 45+ carries in back-to-back games. Moore has also failed to score more than 6 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games. Fade.
A few more Week 15 WR fades: D.J. Chark at the Jets, Gabe Davis vs. the Dolphins, and Drake London at the Saints.
It’s Time to Take Out the Swiss Army Knife
TE: Travis Kelce is the only Elite TE option again this week. The analysis starts below him.
Rides and Sleepers:
Dalton Schultz is my TE Ride of the Week. You know I like Dak this week, and the Jags have allowed the 5th most FPPG to TEs. Schultz is coming off season-highs in targets, catches and yards last week and I think he stays pretty busy in this one.
Greg Dulcich is a Ride this week, with several factors working in his favor. The Cardinals have been a dream matchup for TEs this year - they allow the most everything to the position - FPPG, catches, yards, and receiving TDs. Even Hunter Henry had a big yardage total against them last week. Courtland Sutton will probably miss this game, which is another positive.
I’m riding Tyler Conklin vs. the Lions. Conklin has been a little up and down, but isn’t that true of every TE not named Travis Kelce? The Lions allow the 3rd most FPPG to the position, and the Jets should be able to exploit the Detroit defense. Conklin did have one big game with Zach Wilson at QB, but like all of the Jets’ pass catchers, the outlook isn’t as good with Wilson returning to the starting lineup.
Let’s stick with Chig Okonkwo for another week. Treylon Burks is out again, and I don’t see how the Titans won’t keep Chig pretty involved, in what could be a shootout.
Taysom Hill is worth riding this week. In Week 1, he had more than 80 rushing yards and a TD against Atlanta, and with Mark Ingram out, I see him getting decent rushing volume once again. TE is a weak position, and Hill qualifies for it despite not being a tight end. He’s risky, but this is a great week to fire him up. He’s my TE Sleeper of the Week.
TE sleepers are hard to find. Starters are hard to find. If you’re desperate - consider Jordan Akins vs. the Chiefs and Logan Thomas vs. the Giants.
Fades:
Dawson Knox is my TE Fade of the Week. Yes, last week he scored the first TD that the Jets have allowed to a TE all season, but in the 2 games before that he only totaled 2 catches, and the Dolphins have historically done a very good job defending him. Throw in the potential for bad weather with a lot of running, and I’ll pass on Knox.
Cole Kmet has stepped up since Darnell Mooney got hurt, but I’m nervous about him against Philadelphia, which defends the position very well (6th fewest FPPG allowed to TEs). I’d search for a better option.
I'‘ll fade Tyler Higbee, who is still looking for his first TD of the season. The expectation was that he would start producing when Cooper Kupp got hurt, but it hasn’t happened. The matchup with the Packers isn’t a good one. Pass.
I’ll fade the Seahawks’ TEs duo this week, against a very tough 49ers defense that’s allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to the position.
A few other easy Fades for this week: Mike Gesicki at the Bills, and Daniel Bellinger at the Commanders.
PK & D/ST: See the Week 15 Waiver Wire column for this week’s top streaming options: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-15 .
Good luck to all this week!
And a special note: I’m now giving 1:1, personalized fantasy advice via live video chat on an app called Didit. Follow my Twitter Feed (@PigskinPapers) where I’ll announce when I’m online and available to chat.
DH
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