Pigskin Papers Super Bowl Preview: Clash of the Titans
Memo: Jalen Hurts Has Arrived
(Published February 8, 2023)
The Super Bowl, that unique fixture on the American sports and cultural calendar, is finally here. After 5 long and grueling months, the last game of the 2022-23 NFL season will be played this Sunday in Glendale, AZ. The matchup of AFC #1 seed Kansas City (16-3) and NFC #1 seed Philadelphia (also 16-3) is excellent on paper, and hopefully, will live up to expectations on the field. Argue with me all you want - these are the NFL’s top 2 teams this season. They’ve also both won a Lombardi Trophy in the last 5 years, so they aren’t newbies.
The Eagles come in having won their 2 playoff games by a combined score of 69-14. That’s not a misprint. They haven’t been challenged this postseason and as was the case for most of this NFL season, they look like the team to beat. Their roster is one of the strongest top to bottom that we’ve seen in the last decade. GM Howie Roseman deserves a ton of credit for that, and for getting back to the Super Bowl 5 years later with a retooled team that features a different Head Coach and starting QB than the 2017-18 champs. The NFC Championship game was supposed to be a big test for Philadelphia, but their ferocious pass rush, led by standout OLB Haason Reddick, knocked Brock Purdy AND backup Josh Johnson out of the game. Those QB injuries turned what started out as a tight, low-scoring battle between the NFL’s top 2 defenses into a laugher.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs overcame Patrick Mahomes’s sprained ankle and 3 injuries to their WR corps to avenge last year’s AFC title game loss to the Bengals. They gutted out a hard-fought 3 point win against a very tough opponent. What else would you expect from a KC-CIN game? That’s FOUR straight games between these 2 AFC powerhouses decided by just a FG. Harrison Butker provided the deciding points in the final seconds, after a Mahomes scramble plus a personal foul put KC in position for the win. The Chiefs haven’t been nearly as dominant as Philly in the postseason, but they have the same overall record (16-3), and had a very similar point differential for the season (+133 for PHI, +127 for KC). Oh, and no small point, KC has the best QB in the game today, plus one of the winningest Head Coaches of the past 2+ decades. Like I said, it’s a great matchup and it should offer a terrific pairing for all that food and drink we’ll be enjoying before, during and after the Super Bowl (but maybe not enjoying so much on Monday). I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait for this one.
One quick word about the Conference Championship games. Yes, there were some questionable and missed calls in both games - more than you’d like to see. It was not a banner day for NFL officials. But no, bad officiating is not evidence of rigged, fixed, or scripted NFL games, as some folks speculated (or outright declared) on Twitter and in other dark corners of the Internet. Come on, folks. If you truly believe the NFL is rigged or scripted, don’t watch. Hopefully, we won’t hear much about the officials after this Super Bowl. No press is good press when it comes to officiating.
The Best in the Game Looks to Add to His Legacy
**PIGSKIN PAPERS PLAYOFF RECORD: 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS**
SB LVII
Matchup: #1 KC (16-3) @ #1 PHI (16-3) (State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona, Sun., 6:30 PM EST, on FOX , Announcers: Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen)
Vegas Line: PHI -1.5, O/U 51 (as of the morning of Weds., Feb 8)
Prior Matchup: None this season. Last matchup was on 10/3/21: KC 42 @ PHI 30.
Top Storylines:
Stop me if you’ve already heard this, #1: Andy Reid coached the Eagles for 14 seasons and is the winningest HC in franchise history. He’ll be trying to beat the team that gave him his first HC job, in 1999. Reid took the Eagles to 5 NFC title games and one SB (2004), which the Eagles lost. Reid now has 21 postseason wins, second only to Bill Belichick (31) all time. This will be his 4th SB appearance as a HC (he’s 1-2 in his first 3 trips).
Stop me if you’ve already heard this, #2: The Kelce brothers, TE Travis and C Jason, play for the Chiefs and Eagles, respectively. Between them, they’ve been named All-Pro 9 times, and both could end up in Canton one day. Since both play on offense, they won’t see the field at the same time, but you wouldn’t know that listening to the hype. The O/U on shots of their parents during the game is 17 (my line, not Vegas). This is the first time that brothers who are players will face each other in the SB. Ten years ago, the “Harbaugh Bowl” (SB XLVII) pitted 2 brothers against each other as Head Coaches.
There isn’t a lot of history between these teams. They’ve played twice in the last 6 seasons, both Chiefs’ wins.
The last time that both #1 seeds made it to the SB was the 2017-18 season, when the #1 seeded Eagles defeated the #1 seeded Patriots, Philly Special and all. The NFL first implemented playoff seeding in 1975, and in the 48 SBs played since then, the #1 Conference seeds have met each other in the SB 13 times.
Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive NFL MVP, is looking for his second SB win, and is in the big game for the 3rd time in the last 4 years. Mahomes is still relatively young, at just 27. Jalen Hurts was among the frontrunners for League MVP before he got injured late in the season, and the Eagles are 16-1 in his starts this season. He still has an outside shot at the MVP award this year. Hurts is only 24. The last time a QB won league MVP and a SB in the same season was 1999-2000 (Kurt Warner).
It’s worth reflecting for a second on Jalen Hurts’s journey to this game. After leading Alabama to the 2017 National Championship game as a true Freshman (a loss to Clemson), he was benched at halftime in favor of his backup, Tua (a freshman at the time) in the National Championship game the next year, and Tua led the Tide to a come-from behind OT win over Georgia. Hurts backed up Tua as a Junior, then transferred to Oklahoma for his Senior season, where he followed back-to-back Heisman winners Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. Hurts led Oklahoma to the CFB Playoffs, where they fell to eventual champion LSU. The Eagles took Hurts in the second round of the 2020 Draft, even though they already had a presumptive franchise QB in Carson Wentz, the 2nd overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The pick wasn’t especially popular with the Philly fans, a group that’s not shy. Even after solid improvement in his first full year as the starter last season, questions remained about whether he was a good enough thrower to be “the guy.” Those doubts have been put to bed. Hurts blossomed this season and has developed into one of the league’s premier dual-threat QBs, and an excellent on-field leader. He’s gotten to the SB before any of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray, all of whom have been in the league longer than he has. He’s a coach’s son who is humble and team-focused, by all accounts. The long journey and all the doubters have made him stronger. It’s hard not to root for Jalen Hurts.
More on the matchup of star QBs: For the first time ever, both of the starting QBs in the SB are black.
Nick Sirianni is in the SB in just his second season as an NFL Head Coach. 5 HCs have gotten to a SB in their first season as an NFL HC. At 41, Sirianni is 23 years younger than Reid. Sirianni’s first NFL assistant coaching job was with the Chiefs, starting in 2009. He wasn’t retained when Reid came in to be the Head Coach a few seasons later.
No team is fully healthy at this time of year, but the Chiefs are dealing with some significant injuries. In addition to Mahomes’s ankle, the Chiefs have already announced that Mecole Hardman won’t play. Fellow WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are also banged up, but should be able to go. Whether they can finish the game is another story. On the positive side, the Chiefs’ top CB L’Jarius Snead has been cleared from the concussion protocol. On the Eagles’ side, Hurts is still not 100% from his shoulder injury, and neither is star OL Lane Johnson (groin), but the team comes in pretty healthy overall.
Reid is Moving His Way up the All-Time Coaching Ranks
The Razor’s Edge:
If the betting line (PHI -1.5) stays where it is, that would tie SB LIV (KC vs. SF) for the 2nd smallest line in SB history. Three different SBs had a line of -1.
This is the 14th straight SB with a line of -5 or less, and the 7th straight with a total of 49 or higher. Remember when almost every SB was a blowout? I’m glad that era is over.
The under is 16-4 in the last 20 SBs. That seems relevant.
Like betting the coin toss? OK, why? Well, 4 of the last 5 years the coin has come up heads, but tails leads overall, 29-27. Who says I don’t provide useful information?
There are literally thousands of prop bets you can make on this game, in addition to regular game-related bets. And there are live lines during the game. With many states now allowing you to bet from your phone, all I’ll say is be careful out there, kids, especially after your 4th or 5th beer. There are way too many props to discuss, plus I’m not a source you’d want to go to for wagering advice, other than maybe this: Enjoy the game, and stay away…
Weather won’t be a factor - the stadium has a retractable roof.
Haason Reddick - 19.5 sacks and counting
When KC has the ball: The Chiefs led the NFL in both total offense and scoring this season, and while Travis Kelce easily led the team (and all NFL TEs) in targets, catches, yards, and receiving TDs, Mahomes spread the ball around. Mahomes led the NFL in passing yards (5,250), despite not having a WR with more than 1,000 receiving yards. He also led the NFL in passing TDs (41), with an NFL record 28 of them going to RBs and TEs. Part of the reason this offense is so hard to stop is because of the creativity of Mahomes and of Reid’s schemes, and the potential involvement of every eligible pass-catcher on every play. The Chiefs will want to stay balanced, and I expect a good dose of Isiah Pacheco, who had 95 rushing yards against the Jaguars but never really got going on the ground against the Bengals. CEH is off IR and may be active for this game, but the Chiefs have been fine without him. You can run on the Eagles, and I think KC will try to do just that. The Philly pass rush (now up to a ludicrous 78 sacks in 19 games, and they’d surely have a few more if the 49ers didn’t stop throwing in the second half) is no joke, and the Chiefs will need to do something that the Giants and 49ers were unable to do: Stay out of obvious passing downs, which is where the Eagles’ stellar defensive front truly wreaks havoc. The Eagles also have a strong secondary, but Mahomes should be able to move the ball down the field with his wide array of weapons IF, and it’s a huge if, he has ample time. The Eagles’ #2 ranked defense is a stiff test, so the health of the Chiefs’ WRs is not an insignificant factor. Mahomes is going to need to get the ball out fast, and he’s also going to have to move around in the pocket, and make some plays with scrambles. I’m guessing that with the added rest, his ankle won’t be much of an issue, but we’ll see and it might depend on how much he is under duress. Re-aggravation is definitely a concern. On the plus side for KC, the Eagles’ defense faced very few elite QBs this season, and nobody close to Mahomes’s level. They faced quite a few backups and lower-echelon QBs during the season. So while the Philly D will be a big test for Mahomes, the corollary is also true. This is the best offense Philly has faced. Obviously, how well the Eagles are able to defend Kelce is going to be critical. He’s a game-changing player.
Chris Jones (17.5 Sacks) Swallows Up Joe Burrow
When PHI has the ball: The Eagles’ offense has looked unstoppable this postseason, other than for a few drives early in the SF game. They can beat you by pounding the ball behind one of the league’s most dominant O-lines, by throwing to their excellent WRs and TEs, and by Hurts running for big chunks. Hurts is up to 15 rushing TDs for the regular season + playoffs, a new record for a QB. The Eagles had 32 rushing TDs during the regular season and they’ve added 7 more in 2 playoff games. Yes, they haven’t faced the stiffest competition, but those are ridiculous numbers and dealing with this talented and multi-faceted offense will be a huge challenge for a Chiefs’ defense that kept getting better as the season went on, and ultimately ended up as a top 10 unit. They’ve gotten great play from some young players in the secondary, and MLB Nick Bolton and DT Chris Jones have been stalwarts. Bolton led the NFL in total tackles this season (180) and he covers a lot of ground sideline to sideline. He could be a key factor on Sunday, as the Chiefs need to keep Hurts from gashing them with scrambles and designed runs. The Chiefs didn’t face a lot of running QBs this season, but when they did, they did a good job of containing them. Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Malik Willis all failed to top 40 rushing yards against the KC defense. The Chiefs tallied 55 sacks on the regular season, second only to the Eagles (70), and their pass rush, led by Jones, can also be very disruptive. Don’t be surprised if Dallas Goedert is a factor on Sunday. The Chiefs allowed 9 TDs to TEs this season (5th most in the NFL), and Goedert hasn’t been fully unleashed since his late-season return from injury.
Matchup to Watch: This Dynamic Duo vs. the Chiefs’ Young Corners
The Pick:
This game is a tough nut to crack, hence the very tight betting line. The case for Philadelphia is simple: When Hurts has played, they’ve been the best team in the NFL this season, with 16 wins against just one loss. They’re better in the trenches than any team in the league, and have outstanding playmakers at the skill positions and in their secondary. The case against them is that they played an easy schedule and haven’t faced top QBs or offenses. They certainly haven’t played anyone as strong as the Chiefs and Mahomes. The 49ers were supposed to be that big test, but Philly knocked out both of their QBs and the Niners played the second half with both hands tied behind their back, and had no chance. The other case against them is that as talented as Hurts is, he hasn’t been here before, while Mahomes, the premiere QB in the league, has already started 12 playoff games including 2 SBs. His postseason record of 10-3 speaks for itself. The Chiefs are the more battle-tested team, by a wide margin, and their coaches and players have a significant edge in big-game experience.
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. It’s really hard to pick against Mahomes and this resilient and extremely well-coached KC team. They’ve been the NFL’s best team over the last 5 seasons, with an overall record of 74-21, including playoffs. I think the week of rest will do Mahomes a lot of good, and I expect him to be able to do all of the things he does that scare the hell out of Defensive Coordinators. What I also expect is for Philadelphia’s pass rushers to make his life miserable, and to force him to test that ankle early and often. A relentless pass rush that overwhelmed his protection was his and KC’s undoing against the Bucs in SB LV. Mahomes was only sacked 3 times in that contest but he was under constant duress, was forced to scramble on what seemed like all of his dropbacks, and threw 2 costly INTs. The Eagles’ pass rush was the X-factor in the NFC Championship game, and it’s a better unit than the Bucs brought to the table a few years ago. KC’s O-line is better than it was that season, but with Mahomes at a little less than 100% and potentially down a few pass-catching weapons, I can see just enough disruption to shade the game in Philly’s favor.
Eagles 28 - Chiefs 24
DH
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