The Waiting Game – The 2023 NFL Offseason Grinds On

Lamar is fast, but resolving his situation is a long, slow process

(Published April 19, 2023)

Someone asked me the other day for my thoughts on the 2023 NFL offseason and my answer was that it feels like we’re sitting in slow-moving traffic, waiting to get past some annoying construction.

Why do I say this? Well, mainly because 2 of the very biggest stories so far this offseason revolve around Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, big-name QBs who between them have 5 league MVP awards (4 and 1, respectively), but both situations have been stuck in quicksand for the last month, with almost no significant developments in either case. Elsewhere, player movement has been pretty underwhelming so far: Free agency was mostly a snooze, and big trades have been few and far between. Jalen Ramsey traded to Miami and OBJ joining the Ravens? OK, sure. A bunch of teams hiring new head coaches, including Sean Payton returning to coach in Denver? Fine, but we get a handful of new coaches every year. A few Tier II starting QBs moving to new teams or getting new deals? OK, but that also happens most years. The Commanders finally being sold? It’s a story, but it hasn’t happened yet, and outside of the league getting rid of its most reprehensible owner, does anyone really care about this outside of Washington, D.C.? So yeah - not that much has happened so far, and it feels like we’re waiting for something big.

To be fair, Part I: The offseason isn’t over, and the NFL Draft - which definitely is something big - is right around the corner. We already had the Panthers trading up with the Bears to nab the first pick, which actually was a big deal, despite what I said above. Maybe the draft, plus the eventual resolution of the Lamar and A-Rod situations, can kickstart things and rescue us from 3 months of b-o-o-o-ring. We might even get a Trey Lance trade thrown into the mix for fun. We’ll see.

To be fair, Part II: I think this offseason feels uneventful in part because of how monumental the prior offseason was. The 2022 NFL offseason came on the heels of one of the most exciting post-seasons in NFL history, and it did its part to keep the water boiling. Well before the 2022 Draft, each of the Conference #1 seeds from the 2022 season traded away one of the very best WRs in the game. Trades of elite players in their primes, like Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, are rare. For 2 of them to be moved like that, by teams with serious Super Bowl aspirations, was astonishing. But that wasn’t the end of it. More WR1s were on the move. Amari Cooper got shipped to Cleveland, and then during Round 1 of the Draft, right there in prime time, A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown were traded for first round picks. But wait, there’s more: 2 huge pre-draft trades were completed that involved QBs who at the time were considered top-tier QB1s (Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson), who both got massive deals from their new teams. Watson’s deal was the first-ever fully guaranteed contract exceeding $200 million, despite the fact that there were numerous credible allegations of unwanted sexual advances still swirling around him. The 2022 draft class was seen as a strong and deep one, despite the lack of top-tier QB talent. If you’ve ever had to follow up a speaker who just absolutely killed it - like maybe at a wedding or a retirement party or something - and now it’s your turn to give a speech, then maybe you know what the 2023 offseason feels like right now, if an offseason had feelings.

So with that as the backdrop, I’d like to hit on 3 intriguing offseason questions that remain unanswered, beyond the ongoing sagas of Lamar and the Ravens, and A-A-A-Aaron and the Jets. The only thing I’ll say about those 2 dragged-out dramas is this: Any team that is hoping to either trade for Lamar or sign him to an offer sheet would be crazy to do it before the draft, and on the flip side, it behooves the Packers to try to trade Rodgers to the Jets before the draft. The obvious reason is that regardless of the relative strength of draft classes, current picks are always worth more than future picks in the same round. If you’re the Packers, you can’t trade away Rodgers and have nothing to show for it in this upcoming season. OK, let’s move on those questions.

Jalen Hurts Cashes in, and Philly has its Guy

(1) What does the Jalen Hurts deal tell us about future deals for Lamar, Burrow, Herbert, and possibly Tua? In case you didn’t hear, the Eagles signed their man this week, inking Jalen Hurts to a contract extension for 5 years, and $255 million, with about 70% of that ($179 million) fully guaranteed. They also gave him a no-trade clause. From what’s been reported, this is similar to what the Ravens offered Lamar before the 2022 season (minus the no-trade clause), which he rejected. For now, it’s the highest annual salary ever given to an NFL player, but what is really interesting is what it is NOT, and that is, fully guaranteed. We now have 2 test cases since the Watson deal (Kyler Murray and Hurts), and so for now, the Watson deal is still an outlier, and not a market-corrector. With several big-name QBs on deck for their first post-rookie deals, that’s important to note.

Meanwhile, it’s amazing to think that just a year ago, the Eagles were still unsure if Hurts was the guy. He proved it this season, and was justly rewarded. If you’re wondering why his deal got done before the other QBs in the 2020 class, this wasn’t just the Eagles being shrewd and going first so as not to let someone else set the market. Hurts was a second round pick, so there is no fifth year option like there is for Burrow, Herbert, and Tua, meaning the upcoming season was his last one on his rookie deal. Still - up next are the Bengals and Chargers, which could happen before this season starts, and deals for those players should be in the Hurts ballpark, although details will likely differ including, importantly, the number of years. The Dolphins could possibly be next after that, after this season and depending on how Tua plays this year and if he can stay on the field. And of course, the Ravens still haven’t worked out a deal with Lamar, who was the last player taken in the first round in 2018. It’s hard to know if the Hurts deal moves the needle on getting that done, but if nothing else it’s another key data point.

Jared Goff has Helped to Restore the Roar

(2) What will the Lions and Seahawks do in the 2023 Draft? To me, these are the 2 most interesting teams in the upcoming draft. The Lions and Seahawks are in remarkably similar positions. Both exceeded expectations in 2022 by going 9-8 and challenging for a post-season berth, with the Seahawks edging out the Lions for the 7th and final spot in the NFC. Both got surprisingly strong play in 2022 from a veteran QB who is good enough to hold down the fort while the team considers its long-term options at the position. The Seahawks will pick at 5 (via DEN) and 20 in Round 1, while the Lions will pick at 6 (via LAR) and 18 - with each team having that extra, premium pick because it traded away its starting QB in the last 2 years. So their first round drafting positions are almost identical. Both teams have young, ascending defenses that need more help. Both of these teams could do any of the following in the first round of this draft: take a QB for the future, stay put and take the best player(s) on their boards, or trade out of the top 10 and/or the second 10 to amass more picks. Seahawks’ GM John Schneider and Lions’ GM Brad Holmes have been killing it the last couple of years, and these are definitely 2 teams to watch closely in this draft, and not just on day 1.

Whose Name Will be Called First?

(3) How will the QBs come off the Board in Round 1? While the 2023 draft is by all accounts pretty weak overall, and short on elite talent, it’s got some very interesting prospects at the most important position in all of sports, and the consensus top 4 QBs will likely come off the board early, and define this draft for years to come. In this regard, this feels a bit like the 2018 draft (where 4 QBs went in the top 10 and 5 total went in the first round), including the lack of a clear consensus as to which QB will go, or should go, with the first pick. That pick now belongs to the Panthers, via the Bears, as noted above. Right now, the buzz is that it will be Alabama QB (and 2021 Heisman Trophy winner) Bryce Young. Two weeks ago, it looked more like it would be Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. At least, that’s how the sports books had it handicapped.

In addition to Carolina at pick 1, Houston (2, 12), Indianapolis (4), Las Vegas (7), Atlanta (8), Tennessee (11), WAS (16), and TAM (19) all have a pretty clear long-term need at the position, plus DET and SEA could be in the QB mix as noted above. Until the last few days, it felt like the top 4 QBs (in addition to Young and Stroud, there’s Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis) could go in the first 5 picks, and that even teams like the Raiders at 7 would need to trade up if they wanted one of them. Now, it’s starting to sound like that might not be the case, and the QBs might fall a little after the Panthers take one at #1 overall. Your guess is as good as mine. Teams famously flood whatever spaces they can with misinformation. Have a dozen or so teams really called the Cardinals about trading up to number 3? I have no idea, and who knows what’s real and what’s a smokescreen. We probably won’t know anything for sure before draft night, but we do know that the QBs are going to make Round 1 very interesting, and my guess is there will be at least one and probably two more trade-ups for a QB before it’s over.

What makes this whole exercise even more interesting are the questions around all 4 of them as prospects. There are 4 very different players for NFL GMs to choose from here. In a nutshell: Young has the “it'“ factor, broke the intelligence test, is great at making plays off platform, and would be a “can’t miss” prospect along the lines of Trevor Lawrence if he wasn't so historically small for the position at 5’10” and around 200 pounds. Stroud has the most accurate arm of the 4, and has the poise and pro-ready game teams look for, but he’s the least athletic of the 4 and his ceiling might not be that high. Richardson has great size, tested through the roof, and is one of the best athletes ever to come along at the position, but only has 13 college starts and hasn’t put up consistent production. The physical comp is Cam Newton, and therefore the upside is tantalizing. Levis has good size and athleticism, a cannon of an arm, and is praised for his toughness and leadership, but he regressed in 2022 and has struggled at times with accuracy and turnovers. One other QB who could go late in Round 1 is Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who is 25 and coming off a torn ACL. Fresh in the minds of NFL GMs is the order that the QBs came off the board in 2018: Baker Mayfield - 1, Sam Darnold - 3, Josh Allen - 7, Josh Rosen - 10, Lamar Jackson - 32. Allen and Jackson are the clear stars of the class, and are the only ones still with the team that drafted them. Where will the QBs go? It’s the most compelling story of this draft and we’ll have our answer in 8 days. Was it the right order? We won’t know that for a couple of years.

That’s a wrap. Enjoy the draft, and for all of you Jets, Ravens, and Packers fans, hang in there. Even molasses eventually drips off of the spoon.

DH

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