NFL Playoffs Conference Championships Preview - The Best of the Best
Joe Brrr Checks the Ice in his Veins
(Published January 25, 2023)
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And then there were 4. The 2022-23 Division Round was hardly the barn-burner of a year ago. There wasn’t much drama, as each game was decided by at least 7 points, and all 4 attempted comebacks failed. The end result is that 3 of the 4 teams that appeared in the Conference finals last year made it back this year. Only the Rams are missing, replaced by the Eagles. Is this boring? Not at all! These are very clearly the 4 best teams in the league, the matchups are compelling, and not only should we get 2 excellent games on Sunday, but any of the 4 possible Super Bowl pairings that comes out of this weekend will be a worthy one. We’re good!
How good is this final 4? The 49ers have won 11 in a row, the Bengals have won 10 in a row, and the Chiefs have won 6 in a row and are playing in their 5th straight AFC title game. The Eagles started the season 8-0 and are 15-1 in games started by Jalen Hurts. The combined record of the 4 semi-finalists is an astounding 59-14. It’s a very deserving quartet of teams. I don’t know about you, but I’m really looking forward to the games this Sunday.
There’s also this refreshing aspect - the continued infusion of youth and new faces in the NFL’s elite circles. The Chiefs have been the NFL’s most dominant team of the last half decade, and they’re the senior citizens of this round. Patrick Mahomes, at 27, is the oldest starting QB this week. Really, he is. I went back to see if I could find another group of final 4 QBs that was this young and finally gave up. As for the Head Coaches, Andy Reid is the graybeard at 64, while the other 3 are all pretty young, ranging from 39-43.
Before we break down the Conference Championship games, here are some quick takeaways from each Divisional Round game:
The biggest takeaway from the Jags-Chiefs game, and maybe the biggest on-the-field news to come out of the entire weekend, is the high ankle sprain suffered by league MVP frontrunner Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes was able to return to the game, and will certainly play this week. How much he’ll be hampered by the injury is the burning question. High ankle sprains are significant injuries, and mobility is key to his game. Mahomes is an improvisational genius, and no QB is better at running around to extend plays, finding the open guy, and getting the ball out from every arm angle imaginable. He also takes it down and runs, and runs well, when necessary. Meanwhile, did the Jaguars simply not have a plan for trying to cover Travis Kelce, a week after they couldn’t cover Gerald Everett? Kelce had 10 catches and 2 TDs at the half.
The Eagles completely dismantled the Giants for the second time in 6 weeks. In the Week 14 game plus the Divisional Round game, Philadelphia scored 82 points and put up the kinds of numbers you might see on Friday nights in High School football: 521 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs combined for the 2 games. The Eagles’ 38-7 beatdown of Big Blue was the largest win over a divisional opponent in the playoffs in the Super Bowl era. Jalen Hurts may not be 100%, but he looked mostly like himself on Saturday night, and he’s emerged as the premier dual-threat QB in the game. On the defensive side, the Eagles’ pass rush was once again dominant, and their crowd was a factor. They’ll carry all of that into this week.
Cincinnati put one on the Bills. Perhaps the most surprising result of the weekend was how thoroughly they outplayed Buffalo in every phase of the game. The Bengals set the tone in the game’s opening possession (a 6 play, 79 yard TD drive that took less than 4 minutes, with the Bengals never facing a 3rd down or anything longer than 2nd and 4). The Bills then got the ball and promptly went 3 and out, and after that first exchange of possessions it felt like the outcome was never in doubt. The Bengals had 30 first downs, to just 18 for the Bills, and 172 yards rushing, to just 63 for the Bills. The other takeaway is just more validation that Joe Burrow is a big-time, big-game player, who leads a resilient and deep team that shows up for big games. Burrow’s Bengals are now 5-1 in the postseason, with the lone loss coming in last year’s Super Bowl. Zac Taylor’s young team looks ready to win this year.
The 49ers seemed content to play a conservative game while not asking their rookie QB to do too much, and relying on their defense and kicker to be the difference. Purdy wasn’t great, but he didn’t make the critical mistakes that Dak made. Once Tony Pollard was out of the game, Dallas was short on explosive playmakers and it showed. The end of this Cowboys’ season was eerily similar to what happened a year ago, right down to yet another truly idiotic final play. For the second straight year, the Cowboys lost a one-score game to the 49ers in the playoffs, with Dallas having 2 possessions in the final minutes (with a chance to tie or win), and not being able to mount a touchdown drive on either one. Credit the Dallas defense for an excellent effort that kept the team in the game and for holding San Francisco to FGs off of 2 first half turnovers. The 49ers are going to need a lot more offense this week at Philadelphia.
On to the matchups, which are listed in the order they’ll be played (all times Eastern, all betting lines as of Thursday morning).
**PIGSKIN PAPERS PLAYOFF RECORD: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS, SEE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/nfl-playoffs-division-round-preview-can-we-get-an-upset , https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-preview-the-rematch
#2 SF (15-4) @ #1 PHI (15-3) (Sun., 3 PM, FOX, PHI -2.5, O/U 46)
Prior Matchup: None this season
Storylines: This game features the NFL’s #1 (SF) and #2 (PHI) ranked defenses, with both teams barely allowing 300 total yards per game on the season. The 49ers have the #1 ranked rush defense and Philadelphia the #1 ranked pass defense. Kyle Shanahan’s team is in the NFC Championship game for the 3rd time in 4 years, while the Eagles last played in this round in the 2017-18 season, en route to their lone Super Bowl win (over New England). Nick Sirianni was not the Eagles’ HC then, and this is his first trip to a Conference final. Surprisingly, these teams have only met once before in the postseason, a 1996 Wild Card game won by SF. The teams haven’t played each other since Week 2 of the 2021 season, a 17-11 SF win. Something has to give: Rookie Brock Purdy still hasn’t lost a start in his short career (7-0) and Jalen Hurts lost only one start all season (out of 16). Each QB will be making his 3rd career playoff start. Robby Gould has already made 8 FGs in this postseason, and is still perfect for his career in the playoffs, on 67 total kicks.
Can Reddick and the Philly Pass Rush Rattle Purdy?
When SF has the ball: The 49ers had trouble finishing drives last week, settling for 4 FGs. They’ll need to be more efficient this week. Philadelphia led the NFL by a mile in sacks this season, with 70, and they dumped Daniel Jones 5 times last week. Haason Reddick was #2 among all edge rushers in pass rush win rate for the season (28%), and Josh Sweat was also in the top 10 at 21%. The Philly pass rush is elite and deep, and brings the heat all game long. The secondary is solid and opportunistic, so Purdy is going to need to avoid costly mistakes when the pressure comes. How the 49ers and Purdy handle the Philadelphia pass rush could go a long way towards deciding this game. The Giants weren’t able to stay out of obvious passing downs, but the 49ers have elite offensive weapons and an inventive offensive scheme, and you can be sure that Kyle Shanahan will devise what he can to try to minimize the impact of that ferocious pass rush. George Kittle (5 catches for 95 yards on 5 targets) was a major factor last week and I think the 49ers will look to find matchups for him that they can exploit for big gains. I also think CMC and Deebo will line up all over the formation, and be used in multiple ways. It will be a challenge for the Eagles to account for them for 60 minutes. CMC is battling a calf issue that doesn’t seem to be anything major, but if he’s at all limited on Sunday that’s a major blow and especially if Elijah Mitchell is also limited by his own nagging injuries. Robby Gould is automatic in the playoffs. That mattered last week and if this game comes down to a kick (which it easily could), I’d want Gould on my sideline and not the other one.
Matchup to Watch: Philly’s Dynamic Offense vs. the League’s #1 Defense
When PHI has the ball: The Eagles ran the ball down New York’s throat last week, but having success on the ground will be much tougher against the 49ers #1 ranked run defense. This is a classic case of strength against strength. The Eagles were the #5 rushing offense this season at almost 150 yards per game, while the 49ers allowed less than 80 rushing yards per game, easily the best mark in the NFL. However, the 49ers didn’t really face any elite rushing QBs (they played against Justin Fields in Week 1 in a monsoon, and Kyler Murray missed both ARI-SF games this season), and dealing with Hurts’s mobility and speed is not going to be easy. The Eagles’ offense is potent and can beat you in a number of ways, and A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all must be accounted for. The Eagles’ offensive line is excellent, as is the 49ers’ defensive front. Again, it’s strength vs. strength. The San Francisco defense is fast and athletic and flies to the ball - it’s going to be fun to see them square off against Hurts and the rest of Philadelphia’s high-octane attack.
The Pick: This should be an outstanding, hard-fought game between 2 excellent and very physical teams. Brock Purdy hasn’t just exceeded expectations, he’s defied them. Can he lead his team to a win in his first-ever road playoff game? Sure. Nothing is off the table with him at this point, so it would seem. But I think he’s finally going to run into something that rattles and exposes him - Philadelphia’s relentless pressure coupled with the noise and fervor of their hostile crowd. So far, he hasn’t blinked and hasn’t made costly mistakes, but this is a huge and difficult spot for him, and he’s likely going to need to take more chances this week to keep up with Jalen Hurts and his weapons. I love this 49ers team, and it’s hard to pick against them and especially with them riding such a long winning streak. But for the 2nd straight season, I think they’ll come up just short in their quest to get back to the Super Bowl. Eagles 23 - 49ers 19.
#3 CIN (14-4) @ #1 KC (15-3) (Sun., 6:30 PM, CBS, CIN -1.5, O/U 46.5)
Prior Matchup: Week 13 @ CIN, 27-24 Bengals
Storylines: This is a rematch of the 2021-22 AFC Championship game, a thriller that was won by the Bengals in OT, after they came back from trailing 21-3 late in the second quarter. The final score in that game was 27-24, and that’s the exact same score of the Week 13 game this season, also won by Cincinnati. In fact, the Bengals have won 3 straight over the Chiefs in the space of about 12 months, all by 3 points. The Chiefs haven’t lost a game since falling to the Bengals in Week 13, while the Bengals haven’t lost since Halloween night. Reid, Mahomes, and the Chiefs are in the AFC Title game for the 5th straight year. Reid got his 20th career playoff win last week, tying him with Tom Landry for 2nd all time. This will be Reid’s 10th trip to a Conference Championship, where his record is 3-6. Burrow is looking for his second chance in as many years to become the 3rd QB in history to lead a team to both a Super Bowl win and a College National Championship. Guess what? The 2 QBs who’ve done that also are named Joe (Namath and Montana). Burrow would be the first to do it in the CFB Playoff era. Mahomes is looking for his 2nd Super Bowl win, and in case you haven’t heard, is dealing with a high ankle sprain.
Chasing Chase - Not Where a Defense Wants to Be
When CIN has the ball: Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense had their way with the Buffalo defense this past Sunday, on the road and in the snow. Cincinnati’s OL was missing 3 starters, but you wouldn’t have known it. The Bengals moved the ball up and down the field, were 6 for 10 on 3rd down for the game, and had plenty of success both on the ground (172 yards) and through the air (240 yards). Burrow spread the ball around - no pass catcher had more than 5 catches or 61 yards. The Bengals are loaded with weapons, and Chase and Higgins might be the league’s best 1-2 punch at WR. Burrow has gotten much better at getting the ball out on time, and he can make every throw. It’s a very hard offense to contend with when he gets decent protection. I expect another balanced and diversified attack from this unit. With all the talk about the offensive line, Burrow was only sacked once at Buffalo and was rarely under duress. The Chiefs need to - and should - do a better job of pressuring Burrow. They were 2nd in the NFL with 55 sacks, and Chris Jones led all defensive tackles with a 21% pass rush win rate. KC’s defense improved as the season went on, but they’ll need to be better at disrupting Burrow and defending on the back end than they were in Week 13, when Burrow completed 25 of 32 passes for 286 yards and a pair of passing TDs, while only suffering one sack and limited pressures. If the Chiefs want to slow down this offense, the pass rush will need to get home more than that.
The Travis Kelce Show Was on Full Display Saturday
When KC has the ball: As much as Burrow spread the ball around last week is as much as Mahomes didn’t. Kelce accounted for more than half of the team’s 27 receptions against the Jaguars, and what was especially surprising is that the running backs only caught 1 pass, total. The backs have been a big part of the KC passing game all year and I’m expecting a return to that this week, and especially with Mahomes likely being limited as a scrambler. How well Mahomes can move around and throw off of structure is going to determine a lot in this game. In the second half of the AFC Championship game last year, the Bengals made an adjustment that seemed to confuse Mahomes. They often only rushed 3 and dropped 8 into coverage. It worked, and the Chiefs were stymied in the second half. They used that look at times when the teams met again this season. We’ll see how they play it this time, and what adjustments (if any) they make in light of Mahomes’s injury. It would be foolish to underestimate Mahomes, and I don’t think the Bengals will. Of all the Head Coaches in the NFL, Reid might be the most capable of adjusting an offense to either take advantage of what it’s most suited for or to minimize the impact of its biggest limitations and weaknesses. I expect to see some wrinkles from the KC offense and in that regard I’m keeping my eye on Kadarius Toney.
The Pick: It’s time to stop underestimating the Bengals. This is a very solid team in all phases of the game, with a winner at QB. The Bengals have proven beyond any doubt that they can win big games on the road. Cincinnati has Kansas City’s number, and with Mahomes at less than 100%, I just don’t see the Chiefs keeping up this time around. They’ll find a way to keep it close, and their great home crowd will give them a lift, but the Bengals are on a major roll, and are just a little bit better. Bengals 27 - Chiefs 23.
That’s a wrap - enjoy the games and be sure to come back in 2 weeks for the big one: The Pigskin Papers Super Duper Super Bowl Preview!
DH
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