Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 3
(Posted September 28, 2021)
The Miracle in Motown
Welcome to our Week 3 recap. Just when you thought NFL games couldn't get any crazier, 4 of the week 3 games ended with walk-off FGs. One of those FGs was the longest in NFL history, and the ball hit the crossbar and bounced forward, all the way up into the net. Wait, what? Elsewhere, Week 3 saw a collective performance from the 4 starting rookie first-round QBs that was pretty much a train wreck - including one of them amassing a grand total of 1 net passing yard. Wait, what? Well don’t say we didn’t warn you not to start any of them. Meanwhile, if the season ended today, 3 teams would make the playoffs from each of the western divisions, and that doesn’t include the Chiefs and Seahawks, both of whom sit in last place at 1-2. Wait, what? The list of undefeated (3-0) teams includes the Raiders, Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals - and the Colts are winless at 0-3. Wait, what? Finally, the Jets and Giants are both 0-3. Yeah, that checks out. Since the start of the 2018 season, they’re a combined 28-74. That stench at the northern end of the NJ Turnpike isn’t just the oil refineries.
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Injuries
Week 3 was barely underway when the top dog in fantasy went down with a hamstring injury. CMC hasn’t been put on IR, but we will say this: if Chuba Hubbard is available in your league then (a) definitely try to grab him, and (b) the CMC owner in your league made a big mistake on draft night by not using a late pick on the handcuff. We saw last season why it is necessary to handcuff him. Anyway, if your internet went down at about 9 p.m. on Thursday, it was probably because of the stampede to the waiver wire.
Others who succumbed to hamstring injuries on Sunday included A.J. Brown, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. The Broncos, already without Jerry Jeudy, lost WR K.J. Hamler for the season with a torn ACL. James White appeared to suffer a serious hip injury and is headed for an extended absence. JuJu Smith-Schuster left his game with a rib injury. On top of that, several players who were iffy all week were inactives, including RBs Dalvin Cook, Darrell Henderson and Elijah Mitchell, and WRs Diontae Johnson and Tee Higgins. DeAndre Hopkins did suit up but clearly was not 100%, creating that familiar, awful dilemma for his owners, most of whom likely reluctantly started him and then regretted it. We’ve all been there. We will know more about all of these injured players, and the likely fantasy fallout, as the week progresses. And there were 2 serious defensive injuries to note as they will have fantasy ramifications for opposing offenses - standout rookie corner Jaycee Horn of the Panthers broke his foot and Giants tackling machine Blake Martinez, a perennial stalwart in IDP leagues, tore his ACL.
Usage Report - leaders through 3 weeks
A Busy Night at the Office
Carries: Henry (80), Mixon (67), McCaffrey (52), Kamara (52), Chubb (48)
WR Targets: Adams (34 - 18 this week, several of which came after he may or may not have been concussed), K. Allen (33), Kupp (33), Cooks (32)
TE Targets: Waller (33), Kelce (26), Hockenson (22), Gesicki (21 - 12 came this week), Gronkowski (20)
RB Targets: N. Harris (27, including a ludicrous 19 this week), Swift (23), Drake (17), M. Davis (17)
What We Learned - Week 3
Here are some key observations through 3 weeks, in no particular order:
There was a lot of excitement this year for the Atlanta offense, with Arthur Smith coming over from the Titans to be the new Head Coach. But so far, the biggest change is the disappearance of deep passing, in favor of dinking and dunking. All sorts of stats like average depth of target, air yards, etc., show how drastic this has been. We will just give you two - Matt Ryan has not attempted a pass of longer than 30 yards this season, and Calvin Ridley’s average yards per reception (8.8 ypc) is about half of what it was last season (over 15 ypc). Ridley led the NFL in air yards last year by a wide margin, a big reason why he was the third or fourth receiver off the board in most drafts. If this offense doesn’t start throwing deeper, he won’t be returning anything close to that value.
Welcome back, 2020 Josh Allen. This offense is frightening when it is clicking.
Stafford to Kupp really is a thing.
Burrow to Chase is a thing.
Cousins to Theilen AND Jefferson is a thing.
And so is Herbert to Mike Williams, and especially near the goal line. And speaking of Herbert, Tua over Herbert at pick #5 in the 2020 draft is starting to look really, really bad.
And the most prolific connection of them all is Rodgers to Adams. With 37 seconds to go and the Packers needing about 40 yards to set up a game-winning FG try, we knew where the ball was going, you knew where the ball was going, the announcers knew where the ball was going, and everyone in the building knew where the ball was going, except for the 49ers’ coaching staff, apparently. And there was a little too much time left to defend the boundary and leave the middle of the field open.
Big Ben looks a lot like 2018-2019 Eli Manning - a guy with no mobility who can’t push the ball downfield, playing behind a bad line. 14 catches for Najee Harris, including a dump-off on 4th down and long with the game on the line? We wonder if Ben finishes the season as the starter.
The Ravens have played three completely insane games that all basically came down to the last play. They could - and probably should - be 0-3. They are gritty and find ways to win, or maybe they’ve just been very lucky. This offense, including Lamar, needs to be a lot more consistent if this team is going to go anywhere.
With 14 weeks to go, the Titans are the safest bet to make the playoffs. Not that they’re all that great - but their division is putrid. Tannehill, Henry and the rest are going to have some tasty matchups all year. But where is Julio?
The four first round QBs who are starters not only can’t be started in fantasy right now, but by and large they’re also wrecking those around them. Just ask the Allen Robinson and David Montgomery owners in your league. Davis Mills (drafted after all of them, and getting his first NFL action) played better than all of those guys this week, against a very good defense. So did Trey Lance, and he only took a couple of snaps. Just stay away from all of them until further notice, and be careful starting players on the Bears, Patriots, Jets and Jaguars.
Kirk Cousins (8 TDs, 0 INTS, 118 passer rating) is a legit QB1 right now. So is Derek Carr (1,200+ yards). And so is Matt Stafford. Play them with confidence if you need them.
It’s really weird to see Jameis Winston in a ball-control offense. When we last saw him as a full-time starter in 2019, he threw for over 5,100 yards. Through 3 games he is averaging 129 yards per game. With the way their defense is playing, and with his penchant for picks, why not? The only Saint I would start for now is Kamara.
Naheem Hynes’s usage is again significant, making Jonathan Taylor an RB2 - but he was drafted as an RB1.
Philadelphia RBs had 3 carries last night. Really. We like Miles Sanders but that kind of usage is fantasy poison, and Jalen Hurts should not be throwing this much.
Is the TE position showing signs of life? Mike Gesicki had 10 catches which was nice to see, as was George Kittle getting 100 yards. Dalton Schultz put up by far the best line of the week at the position with 80 yards and 2 TDs. Still, there aren’t 12 TEs you can count on week to week.
You can’t start any Jet. Period. That offense is atrocious: Just 6 points on 2 FGs in the last 2 weeks.
He’s baaaaack…
GOAT of the Week: Stafford, Kupp, and Justin Tucker are all worthy. But we are giving it to Josh Allen, who absolutely destroyed a defense that is supposed to be good, and accounted for 5 total TDs.
Goat of the week: We’re giving it to the four horsemen of their own apocalypse - Lawrence, Z. Wilson, Fields and Mac Jones. Yes, this award should go to someone who is a starter in most 12 team leagues - but because these four guys pretty much destroyed almost everyone around them on four NFL offenses, they get the hardware this week. Yes, better days are ahead - but they will be hard to predict. We’ll spare you the collective stat line - it’s too ugly to print.
Waiver Wire: We already talked about Chuba Hubbard. And let’s assume Mattison, Sermon, and Patterson are all owned. Not much else jumps out this week. Emmanuel Sanders had a big game and is worth a claim given how prolific the Buffalo passing game is. Tim Patrick is going to continue to see a bigger role with all the injuries around him. We don’t trust A.J. Green to be all that consistent and he benefited from Hopkins being less than 100%, but he is worth a stash. I do think Rodgers will look for MVS for a big play almost every game, but like Alan Lazard, the production is spotty. If you like to gamble, and have a deep bench for stashes, Desean Jackson is still really fast and Stafford has a cannon. You probably heard that Josh Gordon is joining the Chiefs. The fact that Mahomes is the QB and Reid the play caller makes this enticing, but we have seen this movie before and unless you’re desperate or have a deep bench we wouldn’t bother. He really hasn’t done anything particularly impressive on a football field since 2013.
The Panic Button: We think it is still a tiny bit early to panic, but these are the players on panic watch - all of whom had an ADP in the top 50 at draft time: Allen Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Robert Woods, Julio Jones, Myles Gaskin, Kyle Pitts, CEH (who finally had a decent week, but the watch remains), Brandon Aiyuk (ditto), Saquon Barkley (OK, he looks a little better each week, and is getting the usage we want, but still waiting to see him break a long TD which is what we expect from him), and Mike Davis. We will revisit this.
Facts That Interest Us, But Maybe Only Us:
The Jets have been outscored 46-3 in the first half, and the only player who has scored a TD for them this year is Corey Davis. (Yeah, I know... by this point most Jet fans stopped reading, and probably stopped caring).
The Giants have lost back-to-back games on walk-off FGs (shoot, there go the rest of the Giant fans too…losing our hometown audience).
The Dolphins have only one passing TD so far this year.
Bill Belichick has had a losing record as a head coach in 6 of 7 full seasons where Tom Brady was not his starting QB. The Patriots are 1-2 so far this year. Maybe you haven’t heard but Brady, Gronk and the Bucs are at the Pats in prime time this weekend.
The teams in the two western divisions are a combined 18-6 right now. As Jim Morrison said (sang), “the west is the best”.
Lamar Jackson exceeded 250 yards passing for the first time since week 1 of the 2020 season. He has only gone above 300 passing yards in a game once, during week 1 of the 2019 season.
Justin Fields completed just 6 passes, for 68 yards, on 20 attempts. He was sacked 9 times for 67 yards. You do the math…
Going back to the end of the Ravens game in week 2, the Chiefs had 5 straight possessions that resulted in a turnover.
Matt Ryan has the most passing yards through the first 14 seasons of an NFL career.
Patrick Mahomes is the fastest player (in terms of games started) to 15,000 yards.
Jamal Agnew tied an NFL record with a 109 return of a missed FG at the end of the first half - a “kick six”, if you will - one of the most exciting plays in football and one that doesn’t happen often. But there is so much more to this story:
Before yesterday, Matt Prater held the NFL record for the longest FG, at 64 yards
Just last week, Prater hit a 62 yarder for the Cardinals
The kick that Agnew returned was a 68 yard record-shattering attempt by Prater
Before Prater hit his 64 yarder in 2013, the longest FGs in NFL history were 63 yards (owned by several kickers, and accomplished first by Tom Dempsey in 1970, kicking for the Saints, and his famous kick won a game at Detroit against the Lions)
Before yesterday, Justin Tucker in his NFL career had never missed a FG indoors
Tucker, kicking indoors at Detroit, missed a 49 yard FG in the first half on Sunday
As time expired on Sunday in Detroit, Tucker capped a feverish last-minute drive and won the game with a record-breaking 66 yard FG as time expired - 51 years after the Dempsey kick won a game in Detroit
Got all that? And if you haven’t heard Gus Johnson’s call of the Agnew return, find it on YouTube. You can thank me some other time.
Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 4 Fantasy Preview.
