Pigskin Papers Preview Week 3
(Posted September 23, 2021, updated for injuries September 25)
Ride of the Week: Austin Ekeler
Welcome to Week 3. The seasons have changed and autumn is here. It feels like football belongs back in our lives now. We have changed the name of our weekly preview column, but the content is the same. We hope you find it helpful.
Here is our schedule going forward: Our weekly fantasy recap will appear each Tuesday, and this column (the weekly fantasy preview) each Thursday. We will also occasionally write about other NFL and fantasy topics, as we did this past Monday.
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OK, with that commercial out of the way, let’s dive into the fantasy outlook for Week 3. Before we get to our Ride or Fade section, here are some metrics to bear in mind as we size up the matchups.
Points on the field lead to fantasy points. In fantasy football we want players on high scoring teams, playing in high scoring games. There are three games this week with an implied total of 55.5 points: TB@LAR, SEA@MIN and LAC@KC. Two other games are above 50 (ARI@JAC (52) and PHI@DAL (51.5)). On the flip side, the lowest implied totals are NYJ@DEN (41.5), CAR@HOU (43.5) and NO@NE (43.5).
Yards also lead to fantasy points. What was said above also applies to teams that pile up yardage. Through two weeks, here are your top rushing and passing offenses:
Rushing (ypg)
BAL (220) (note - 97 ypg of this total comes from the QB)
PHI (162) (note - 72 ypg of this total comes from the QB)
CLE (155)
TEN (149)
DEN (131)
Passing (ypg)
LV (391)
KC (334)
AZ (326)
LAC (324)
TB (319)
And here are the bottom dwellers, ranked from the very worst:
Rushing (ypg)
PIT (57)
TB (67)
LV (67)
KC (67.5)
GB (70)
Passing (ypg)
NO (116)
CHI (136)
MIA (165)
NYJ (196)
CIN (198)
We are only 2 games in, so this is admittedly a tiny sample size. These numbers will change as we move through the season - but they’re what we have to work with so far. A lot of it reflects specific matchups through week 2. Nobody should look at these numbers and bench Najee Harris or Tee Higgins (Saturday update - this was a bad example as Higgins is listed as doubtful to play this week). But they’re still useful.
Matchups also matter. This is not exactly news but you want as many soft matchups for your fantasy lineup as you can get without benching your main scorers. So every week we find ourselves factoring in which NFL defenses offer the least and most resistance to rushing and passing, and points. Again, the sample size is tiny so take this in that context, but here are a couple of early trends worth noting:
The Panthers are giving up less than 200 yards per game, and only 10.5 points per game. They’re first in just about every major defensive category through 2 games. Who saw that coming? Let’s see if it can continue.
Nobody runs on the Bucs. They led the league last year at 81 ypg, and right now their figure of 58 ypg trails only Carolina (46). They figure to remain very stingy.
The easiest run defenses so far have been KC, SEA and the LAC.
In terms of pass defense, Carolina, Buffalo and Philadelphia have been the stingiest so far, while Baltimore, Dallas and Tampa Bay have been the most generous.
Rides and Fades
We did pretty well last week, most notably our call on Rondale Moore breaking out. We will try to be right more than we are wrong. You can come back and complain next week…
These Rides and Fades represent our analysis of some of the name players we think will overperform or underperform this week against consensus expectations. This is not intended to be a straight up start/sit column, and you are obviously starting all of your studs. We can’t talk about every player, but we try to hit on a bunch of them. While this column is intended primarily for season-long play, it should also be useful for DFS. The basic assumption is a 12 team league, half PPR, start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 Flex (non-QB).
QB: A few of the top QBs (Murray, Jackson, R. Wilson and Mahomes) have A+ matchups this week so we won’t say much about them - if you’re fortunate enough to have these players, sit back, open a cold one, and enjoy. We love Justin Herbert against the Chiefs, even after he was slightly disappointing last week. The Chargers need to score in the 30s to have a chance in this one. Elsewhere, a few QBs ranked a little lower who we like as Rides this week are Jalen Hurts at Dallas (love the floor that his rushing provides), Matt Stafford hosting Tampa (look at the numbers above - they will need to throw, and throw, and throw), and Teddy Bridgewater at the Jets. Further down, and if you for some reason need them, or are in a 2 QB league, we like all three of Daniel Jones vs Atlanta (laugh all you want, Danny Dimes is the QB5 through 2 games), Kirk Cousins vs. Seattle (and Kirk is QB6, and he will have to throw in what should be a shootout) and Sam Darnold at Houston (Jets fans, I am out of jokes - don’t watch this game).
As for Fades, a recommendation against Tom Brady feels like insanity at this point - he of the 9 TDs in 2 games, he of the anti-aging miracle that none of us can fathom - but it is a tough matchup and their first road game, and the Rams should slow them down just enough to keep Brady from going off. We are also raising the yellow caution flag on Aaron Rodgers, who was our #1 Ride this past week in a “get right” game for Rodgers and the Pack against a sieve defense. The going won’t be so easy against that ferocious 49ers front 7 on the road, and he is only one game removed from the worst start of his career. We expect something very much in between his first two starts, which would be a middling but not stellar performance. We would wait at least a week on Justin Fields, while he gets his feet wet against the speed of the NFL game. At this point you cannot trust Trevor Lawrence. Hopefully you didn’t draft him to be your starter. And be careful with Joe Burrow at the Steelers - most fantasy teams have a better option and we would definitely play any of Jones, Darnold, Bridgewater or Cousins over him this week.
RB
The Rides: Christian McCaffrey is the #1 rated RB almost every week, so it is hard to ever predict him to exceed expectations, but he is in a huge smash spot tonight - so you CMC owners get to crack a cold one also. The one concern would be if the game gets out of hand and he rests - a realistic possibility. But if he plays into the fourth quarter, he could easily be the top overall scorer this week. Similarly, it is hardly a bold call to predict a big week from Dalvin Cook (Saturday update - Cook has not practiced this week and is questionable to play - check status on Sunday), but he should be heavily involved as both a runner and receiver in one of those last possession wins games - we like him for a huge game. We like Chris Carson opposite him in the same game, for a top 10 week. This looks like a good week for Jonathan Taylor to get back on track. Austin Ekeler has a very nice matchup against a KC run defense that has been terrible (albeit, the Ravens make a lot of defenses look terrible against the run), and we like him for a top 5 finish this week - he is our Ride of the Week. Further down the ranks, assuming he plays we like Elijah Mitchell against a soft Green Bay run defense (Saturday update - Mitchell is listed as doubtful and Trey Sermon should get the start),Ty’Son Williams against the toothless Lions (we know, you’ve heard that one before), and Miles Sanders for a bounceback at Dallas. We are torn on Saquon Barkley. We have said over and over that he doesn’t look right, and that it would be better to be late than early on him. But if you drafted him you probably don’t have better options, he played 85% of the snaps in week 2, and against a bad Atlanta defense, now is as good a time as any and we are cautiously optimistic - ride him if you have him. Staying in New York (New Jersey, actually), keep an eye on Michael Carter. Don’t fire him up just yet, but it is only a matter of time before he becomes the clear lead back for the Jets.
In the Fade category, this week’s running back facing the Bucs is Darrell Henderson, and if he can’t go, Sony Michel. Don’t start either one if you can avoid it. CEH has a good matchup, and is in a historically good offense. It pains us to say this, but at this point he just can’t be expected to perform like a guy taken in the second round of fantasy drafts. Myles Gaskin also has a good matchup but this offense is broken right now - the line can’t block and Tua is out - he could be OK in full PPR but see if you have better options. The Bills’ RB tandem had surprising production last week, but autumn is here and we think they turn back into pumpkins this week against the WFT, plus it is hard to know which back to play and this offense won’t regularly support good fantasy production from two RBs, much less one. We will keep recommending against James Robinson until we see more usage, and against Mike Davis unless it is full PPR where he has some decent value as a flex. We also don’t like Ronald Jones this week - the Rams are a tough matchup and Leonard Fournette continues to get a lot of work.
WR
How is Cooper Kupp ranked outside the top 10 this week? He is the #1 WR in fantasy so far and the matchup vs. Tampa is a good one. A large Kupp of whupass to go, please. The same is true for Tyler Lockett - fire him up each week and wait for the huge play(s). Since the start of the 2018 season Lockett has 31 TDs - not bad. DJ Moore has a great matchup tonight, and has top 10 upside this week. Until someone stops them, keep firing up both starting WRs on Dallas, Minnesota and the LAC, regardless of opponent. We especially like Justin Jefferson for a top 5 finish this week - for what it’s worth, his breakout last year came in Week 3. No surprise if you’ve read this far, but we also like Robert Woods to be busy and productive on Sunday, in a game where the Rams will need to score points, and to throw the ball to get those points. The target share has been there but the production has not and that should change. Marquise Brown and Courtland Sutton are both ranked outside the top 20 this week and we like both for top 20 finishes. Brown has 10 straight games with a TD or 80 yards and the Detroit secondary is banged up. Sutton looked like his old self last week - a great sign for his owners (I’m sure the Broncos are happy about it too). Chase Claypool is outside the top 30, and we like him to wake up this week and find the end zone, assuming Ben plays. And while we are here outside the top 30, let’s go back to the well and fire up Rondale Moore again. He increased his snap share to 46% last week and led the team in catches and yards. His usage will keep going up, his role will keep increasing, and he is electric - a big play (in a small package) waiting to happen. Another repeat from last week is Sterling Shepard, especially in full PPR, as he is clearly the favorite target and has a nice, safe floor.
Fades - we are fading Brandon Aiyuk until he shows something, and for now we are fading all WRs on the Dolphins and Patriots - look elsewhere as there are lots of productive WR 2s and 3s to be found that are easier to count on for a decent floor. The Bucs have not played a good defense yet - or maybe they’ve just made two defenses look terrible. But either way, on the road against the Rams, at least one of the WRs is not going to produce. In week 1 it was Mike Evans and in week 2 it was AB. And now AB is on the COVID list. Chris Godwin is always the safest play here. You aren’t sitting Evans who gets his goal line looks, but you could sit AB even if he is active. For the second straight week, we are fading Corey Davis. It is just hard to trust this passing offense, especially against Denver. Brandin Cooks has been terrific this year, but with Davis Mills getting his first start against what has been a shutdown defense, we’ll pass. In fact, check your lineup one last time tonight to make sure there are zero Texans in it. And we will also pass on DJ Chark, who has been a disappointment and saw a big drop in his target share last week. Look for Ja’Marr Chase to cool off this week. For those waiting on Marquez Callaway, keep waiting.
TE
Do we really have to talk about this wasteland of a position group? We don’t want to. Even kickers or DSTs would be a more exciting topic. There are about 8 TEs you can trust right now - if that. Of guys ranked outside the top 5 this week we like Noah Fant and Kyle Pitts - both are ranked inside the top 10 and both have a good target floor. Pitts was much more involved last week and the Falcons will need to throw. His breakout game is coming - just wait and see. With Jarvis Landry out, and OBJ in his first game back from ACL surgery, the Browns tight ends are likely to be busy. The problem is that they have three of them. Don’t they know how much that sucks for us? Apparently they don’t care. Of the three and if you’re desperate, we like David Njoku best. Dallas Goedart has a good matchup vs. Dallas, but he is no sure thing to produce. We like his chances better if Zach Ertz (COVID) doesn’t play. Jared Cook figures to be targeted a decent amount in a high scoring affair vs. KC. The Rams will need to get Tyler Higbee more involved this week. Whether that will happen is TBD but if you have him, he is likely your best TE so fire away.
We are fading everyone else not named Kelce, Waller, Hockenson, Andrews, Kittle or Gronk. And we like them in that order.
Good luck to all in Week 3. Check back with us on Tuesday for the weekly fantasy recap, where we will tout these Rides and Fades if they rocked, and not mention them if they flopped.
