Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 2
The Jax Stack Arrives - Lookout!
(Published September 14, 2023, UPDATED FOR INJURIES AND WEATHER NEWS, Sunday, September 17, 9 a.m.)
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Welcome to Week 2! Week 1 was fun. Actually, no it wasn’t. From Travis Kelce being scratched on Thursday night to Aaron Rodgers rupturing his achilles on his fourth snap as a Jet on Monday night, it was a weekend full of disappointment and heartbreak. Sure, if you had the Tua-Tyreek stack (guilty, as charged) or the Dallas DST, there was some fun to be had. But for the most part, Week 1 was very low scoring. How bad was it? Well, here are all the individual players who broke 25 points (HALF PPR): Tua, Mac Jones, Aaron Jones, Tyreek Hill, and Brandon Aiyuk. That’s it - 5 guys. In Week 1 last year, there were 11. In 2021, 14, and in 2020, also 14. I could go on, but I won’t. You get the picture. If you want to get all stat-geeky about it, the total EPA (Expected Points Added) per play across the league this past weekend was the lowest for a Week 1 during this century. Putting it in simple language that we can all understand, NFL offenses generally sucked in Week 1.
What gives? Week 1 is supposed to be high scoring in fantasy - players are healthy and nobody has a bye. Are defenses starting to figure things out in the pass-first era of the NFL, and getting the upper hand, or were offensive units shaking off the rust in an era where starters barely get preseason game reps? We’ll see, but hopefully scoring returns this week. I’m talking to you, Joe Burrow. You used to get 82 yards on a single drive at LSU! And you, Josh Allen! And you, Lamar Jackson! And you…
*** SEE THE WEEK 2 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: waiver-wire-week-2. ***
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Weather Report (UPDATED SUN 9 a.m.): There don’t appear to be any major trouble spots at the moment. Some rain (and possibly thunder) is expected for JAC@KC. The two Florida games (CHI@TB, KC@JAC) figure to be uncomfortably hot and humid, as you’d expect at this time of year. 6 of 16 games will be played in domed stadiums.
Injury Report (UPDATED SUN, 9 a.m.): Here are the key players to keep an eye on as we head into the Sunday and Monday slate. Be sure to check the early inactives before you lock in your lineup, and note that there are 2 games on Monday this week (CLE@PIT, NO@CAR) instead of one.
OUT: A. Ekeler, J. Meyers, D. Johnson, G. Dulcich (placed on IR), G. Zuerlein
DOUBTFUL: W. Robinson
IN (no injury designation): Z. Moss, C. Patterson, J. Jeudy, D. Waller
QUESTIONABLE: C. Stroud, K. Miller (MNF), CEH, A. Cooper (MNF), D.J. Chark (MNF), D. Parker
QUESTIONABLE, LIKELY TO PLAY: B. Hall, D. Hopkins, P. Nacua, T. Kelce, M. Andrews
QUESTIONABLE, UNLIKELY TO PLAY: A. Jones, C. Watson, B. Cooks
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TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: BUF (28), PHI (27.5), DET (27), KC (27), SF (26.25)
Bottom 5: NYJ (16), AZ (17.25), WAS (17.75), LAR (17.75), PIT (18.5)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT:
We’ve only got one week of data from the 2023 season, so the sample size is too small to be meaningful in most cases. Still, it’s useful to look at data from both last year and Week 1 to help with this week’s matchup analysis. One of the goals of this weekly exercise is to find the best matchups to exploit and to avoid.
FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. NO, 2. CLE, 3. WAS, 4. DAL, 5. NYG
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. LAC, 2. PHI, 3. CHI, 4. DET, 5. CIN
Top 5 vs RB: 1. JAC, 2. TEN, 3. SF, 4. BAL, 5. MIN
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. MIA, 2. CAR, 3. CHI, 4. HOU, 5. SEA
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DAL, 2. CAR, 3. CLE, 4. ATL, 5. CIN
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. LAC, 2. TEN, 3. TB, 4. PIT, 5. IND
Top 5 vs TE: 1. HOU, 2. BUF, 3. NE, 4. NO, 5. BAL
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. PHI, 2. ATL, 3. DET, 4. MIA, 5. CIN
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a pretty strong performance in Week 1, all things considered. The Fade calls were especially strong across the board, which isn’t a big surprise, since so many players busted out in Week 1. Let’s see if I can improve a little in Week 2.
Goff: Home Cooking = Cooking at Home
Week 2 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
QB:
Elite options - Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Jared Goff, vs. SEA. How do you like this stat line: 26-39-378, with 4 TDs and 1 INT? Well, that’s what Goff did in Week 4 last season, at home vs. these same Seahawks. These same Seahawks were carved up by Matt Stafford at home last week. Plus, after a decent outing in KC, now we get home Jared, who is better than road Jared. Goff averaged more than 21 Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) in home games last season, and he hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 10 of 2022. This looks like a smash spot for him. He’s ranked outside the Top 10 this week, but shouldn’t be.
Other Rides:
Trevor Lawrence, vs. KC. Did you see Trevor playing with his shiny new toy last week? More on him below, and yeah, that’s going to be a real thing all year.The Jags are going to need to push the ball downfield to beat a Super Bowl champ that’s staring down the barrel of an 0-2 start. I like Lawrence to sling it a lot in this one, and he has top-3 upside in what could be a classic QB shootout.
Daniel Jones, @AZ. I know - how can I pick any Giant after what we saw last week, and after seeing the G-Men’s offensive line be that, um, offensive? Well, the Cards are bad, the Giants need to regroup, and this is a nice bounceback spot for a guy who was a top-10 QB last season.
A few other QBs ranked in the teens and who I like for top 12 (QB1) finishes this week are: B. Purdy (@LAR), G. Smith (@DET), and J. Love (@ATL)
QB Sleeper of the Week:
Mac Jones (vs. MIA). This game features the two highest scoring QBs from Week 1, which probably comes as a surprise to most. I don’t think a shootout is in the offing, but the Pats likely will need to score 20+ to win and Miami allowed the 2nd most FPPG to QBs last year. This is a nice spot for Jones and you should feel good about him as your QB2 in a Superflex this week.
Other QB2 Sleepers: B. Mayfield (vs. CHI) and D. Carr (@CAR)
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: A. Richardson (@HOU). The rookie played well in his debut, and finds himself ranked inside the top 10 this week. I think he’ll give you an OK floor, but despite being one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Texans are actually a very bad matchup for QBs, and we saw it again last week with another gifted runner in Lamar Jackson, who put up a grand total of 7.6 fantasy points last week (QB27), at home no less, and in a win no less. The Texans allowed the fewest FPPG to QBs last year, and the way to attack them continues to be on the ground.
Other Fades:
Tua (@NE). It’s tough to put Tua on a fades list after that masterful performance in L.A. last week, but playing at New England, where there will be (a) more home team fans than Miami fans, and (b) a competent coaching staff and secondary on the other side is a very different ball of wax. The Pats just held Jalen Hurts (last year’s #1 fantasy scorer on a FPPG basis) to 12.5 points at home, and I think Tua will also find tough sledding in Foxboro this week.
Dak Prescott (vs. NYJ). Dak didn’t need to throw much last week at the Giants. Now he gets the other New York team, which rode a major roller-coaster on Monday night. That defense is no joke, and unless either (a) the Jets are emotionally spent on a short week and don’t show up, or (b) the Dallas defense turns over Zach Wilson multiple times giving Dak short fields, I don’t see Dak putting up good fantasy numbers this week. Better days are ahead.
Kirk Cousins (@PHI) - See Prime Time Road Kirk from Week 2, 2022, @PHI. 1 TD and 3 INTs. We’ve been here before, and recently. Rinse and repeat, on a short week.
Other fades: Sam Howell (@DEN), Matt Stafford (@SF).
Mac and ‘Mondre are both Good Plays this Week
RB:
Elite options - CMC, Chubb, and Barkley; the analysis starts below these 3
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. MIA). Stevenson is ranked outside the top 12 this week and I think that’s way off. Miami got gashed by both Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley last week (both finished the week inside the top 8 at the position), and the Pats are going to want to play ball-control. Stevenson should get plenty of carries and targets and I like him for a top 10 finish - maybe even top 5. If Zeke vultures a TD, I can live with it.
Other Rides:
I think you can start both Lions’ RBs vs. SEA, as both should see a decent workload and be used in the passing game, against a shaky defense. They’re ranked back-to-back this week (RB14-15) and I think either one could give you a top 10 finish. The balance between the 2 should be a little more even this week as the rookie Gibbs gets eased into a bigger role.
Jamaal Williams (@CAR). The big guy was a Fade for me last week but he’s a Ride this week. The Panthers couldn’t deal with ATL’s power run game last Sunday, and with Kamara still out and Kendre Miller banged up, Williams should see good usage in this one, in a game the Saints should control.
Other Rides, from a little further down in the rankings: R. White (vs. CHI), J. Cook (vs. LV), M. Sanders (vs. NO), Jav. Williams (vs. WAS), and J. Conner (vs. NYG).
RB Sleeper of the Week:
Tyler Allgeier (vs. GB). Why not? He’s clearly going to get enough touches to matter, on an offense that’s going to be as run-heavy as any in the league. Arthur Smith’s team is the Navy of the South. Sorry, London and Pitts managers. This is your fate. I tried to warn you in the preseason. Allgeier is ranked just outside the Top 30 this week and that’s too low.
Other Sleepers: G. Edwards and J. Hill (@CIN), T. Bigsby (vs. KC)
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Austin Ekeler (@TEN). If he plays (ankle), he could be limited and a re-injury risk, and could yield even more work to Joshua Kelley and other backs. Throw in that the Titans allowed the second fewest FPPG to RBs last season (and the second fewest in Week 1 of this season) and it’s hard to see how Ekeler lives up to his RB8 ranking this week. You’re obviously starting him if he’s able to suit up, but don’t expect his usual big game.
Other Fades:
Dalvin Cook (@DAL). He was fine last week, but the Jets will be lucky to score 14 points in Dallas and Breece Hall’s workload is only going to increase with each passing week.
Najee Harris (vs. CLE). I was a bit down on him coming into the season and while it’s unfair to judge him off of one game vs. a tough SF run D, I don’t love the matchup (or likely usage) this week either. He was a Fade last week (ka-ching) and I’ll run it right back.
A.J. Dillon (@ATL). He’s a permanent Fade for me at this point. And if he can’t do anything in a blowout win vs. the Bears, yikes. The caveat here is that if Aaron Jones (hamstring) can’t go, then Dillon comes off this list and is a viable volume play.
Others: Cam Akers (vs. SF), Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson (@TB), Brian Robinson (@DEN). All are very tough matchups, and Akers is no lock to lead his team in RB usage.
Aiyuuuuuuk is Just Getting Started
WR:
Elite options - Jefferson, Chase, and Hill; the analysis starts below these 3
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week:
Calvin Ridley (VS. KC). From last week’s column, in the WR Rides section: “Calvin Ridley is another obvious name and he’s ranked outside the Top 10 this week. You may not see that again for a while. Fire him up at the Colts.” He’s ranked near the bottom of the Top 10 this week and that’s still too low. His target share and red zone share were phenomenal last week and that’s going to continue. I’m expecting another big outing from him vs. the high-powered Chiefs.
Other Rides:
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (vs. MIN) are both ranked right near where Ridley is, and I think either or even both of them could finish in the Top 5 this week, vs. a Vikings’ secondary that was bad last year and again looked beatable vs. the Bucs last week. The Eagles’ passing offense struggled a bit at NE, but this week will be anything but a struggle as they right the ship.
Keenan Allen. It’s the Titans. Really good WRs are a problem for them, and I expect a busy and productive day for Herbert’s top target.
Moving into the high teens and 20s, I’ll ride these guys, who all have plus matchups this week: B. Aiyuk (@LAR), A. Cooper (@PIT), D.K. Metcalf and T. Lockett (@DET), C. Godwin (vs. CHI), G. Davis (vs. LV), and D. Hopkins (vs. LAC).
WR Sleeper of the Week:
Zay Flowers (@CIN). The rookie had a very solid debut last week, leading the Ravens in targets (10), catches (9) and yards (78) against a tough HOU secondary. He also passed the eye test, and looked like 2021 Kadarius Toney, but with hands. The going gets a little easier this week, and even if Mark Andrews is back, I think Lamar will continue to pepper his new weapon with targets, including a bunch of easy ones near the line of scrimmage.
Other Sleepers:
Puca Nakua (@SF). Another rookie! I’m a believer. He’s in the Cooper Kupp role while the star is out, lining up all over the formation and getting open early and often. SF’s D is no joke, but this game has great garbage time potential for the rookie.
Courtland Sutton (vs. WAS). This is almost a default pick. With both Jerry Jeudy and Greg Dulcich iffy, Russ is running out of receiving weapons. Sutton makes for a nice WR3/Flex play this week in a favorable matchup.
Others: R. Doubs (@ATL), N. Collins (vs. IND), E. Moore (@PIT), J. Reynolds (vs. SEA), R. Shaheed (@CAR), A. Robinson (vs. CLE).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week:
Garrett Wilson. He’s supremely talented, and his TD catch against the Bills on Monday night was the most impressive grab of Week 1. I just think the Jets are going to have a hard time rebounding for this game on a short week, and moving the ball on this defense. The pass rush is going to be all over Zach Wilson, and that's bad news for his top target. You’re starting him, but don’t expect a big game.
Other Fades:
I’m not starting Drake London (or Kyle Pitts) if I can help it, until I see the Falcons throw the ball with any kind of frequency or proficiency. I just can’t do it.
Terry McLaurin, meet Pat Surtain. No thanks. Another in a long line of disappointing outings is likely for this talented WR.
Christian Kirk, vs. KC. I was high on Kirk this season, and I’m normally not one to overreact to one game, but I’m officially worried. Will he have more than 3 targets and 1 catch this week? Almost certainly. Will he play more than the 60% of snaps he got last week? I’m not so sure. I’ll wait on him.
Others: J. Addison (@PHI), O. Beckham (@CIN), M. Brown (vs. NYG), B. Cooks (vs. NYJ).
Fire up Njoku in Week 2
TE:
Elite option - Kelce (assuming he plays)
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week:
David Njoku (@PIT). I struggled to find a Ride of the Week this week. I’ll go with Njoku, who has a TD in 3 straight outings vs. the Steelers and wasn’t featured much in that weird opener vs. the Bengals.
Other Rides:
Sam LaPorta (vs. SEA). Are you figuring it out yet? I’m starting everything I can on DET this week. Last week LaPorta made my sleepers list and he delivered enough to vault him up the rankings to where he can no longer be considered a sleeper. He’s going to be a featured piece of the passing offense, at least until Jameson Williams returns and probably even then.
Dallas Goedert (vs. MIN). He was shut out last week. Wait, what? I’m on Philly’s passing game this week and that includes him. He’s a good bounceback candidate in a positive matchup.
Hunter Henry (vs. MIA). It looks like Henry is going to be an important component of the NE passing game, and while this feels a bit like chasing performance, I’ll give him a shot against a Miami D that should yield some yards and scores.
Luke Musgrave (@ATL). The rookie was a pleasant surprise last week and his afternoon could’ve been a big one if Love didn’t misfire on a potential TD throw. Like LaPorta, he should continue to see targets, although a Christian Watson return might tamp that down some. Still, you could do worse, and especially with several higher-ranked TEs still banged up.
TE Sleeper of the Week:
Zach Ertz. Look, the Cardinals are bad, and I don’t expect a lot of competitive games from them. That said, Ertz is still capable, and he led his team in catches last week. I’m not recommending a start here, but if you’re desperate, he’s a dart throw to consider.
Other Sleepers: G. Everett (@TEN), D. Knox (vs. LV)
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week:
Kyle Pitts. Can I just cut and paste this name every week? More often than not, it will hit. How many sub-par weeks from him do we need to see before the rankers come to their collective senses and remove him from the weekly top 10? I don’t doubt the talent, but the fit is awful. He had 44 yards last week, which isn’t atrocious. But it came on just 2 catches and 3 targets, and I don’t see the usage going up enough for him to be the Top 10 TE was drafted as this season (and not by me, anywhere - I learned my lesson last year).
Other Fades: C. Kmet (@TB), H. Hurst (vs. NO).
Good luck with all of your matchups. Let’s see some points!
DH
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