Pigskin Papers: 2023 Waiver Wire Week 3

Jerome Ford - Next Man Up for the Brownies

(Published September 18, 2023)

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Welcome to the Waiver Wire for Week 3. Writing this column each week sometimes feels like a grim reaper exercise. Injuries are unfortunately a big part of the game, and analyzing the Waiver Wire often comes down to reacting to injuries. We made it to Monday night this week without anything too serious, but that all changed early in the CLE-PIT game when one of the game’s best runners went down with what has been confirmed as a very serious, season-ending knee injury. What a bummer - not only is Nick Chubb so much fun to watch, but he’s always been a guy that’s very easy to root for. Let’s hope for a successful road back for him, and a quick recovery for Saquon Barkley, who also went down with a lower leg injury this week. While we’re here, let’s hope RBs start to get paid a little more for the hard and dangerous work that they do.

I’ll repeat this paragraph from last week’s column: Working the Waiver Wire is an important component of success in season-long fantasy football. Some analysts believe it’s as important as the draft. A few key components of the Waver Wire experience vary by league, such as league size (the smaller the league, the better the FA pool), bench size (ditto), availability of an IR spot, and how waivers are processed. Some leagues are still in the Dark Ages and use priority waivers. If that’s you, talk to your Commissioner and change to a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) system for next year. If your league uses FAAB, one thing to bear in mind is that your dollars are worth a little more now than later in the season. Why? Because any player you buy now might be with you for 13 or 14 more weeks before your playoffs start. With each passing week, that number goes down, but you’re using the same dollars. I’m not arguing that you should blow your entire budget now, and there’s definitely value to having more money later.

Ok, let’s get to the Waiver Wire for Week 3!

The Process: Each week, I try to identify the top Waiver Wire targets and evaluate the short and long term prospects of those players. I also do my best to reveal which players who are coming off a big week are fool’s gold. Finally, I endeavor to find streamers who might help you in a pinch. Note that this advice is primarily intended for Season-Long leagues, and NOT Dynasty leagues.

Some of the players I’ll talk about won’t be available in your league. As a general rule, I list players who are available in more than 50% of leagues. But what does that even mean? A 10 team league with 6 bench spots will have a much larger free agent pool than a 14 team league with 8 bench spots. Most leagues fall somewhere in between. This isn’t “one size fits all.”

Week 3 Waiver Wire:

If for some reason any of the biggest names from last week are still in the free agent pool for your league (they shouldn’t be), they’re priorities. I’m talking about Puca Nakua, Kyren Williams, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill.

QB: Some of you might still be looking for an Aaron Rodgers replacement, or maybe you’re worried about Joe Burrow’s Week 3 availability or Deshaun Watson’s productivity. I’ll run back 2 players who made the column last week, and add another. They won’t be available in 2-QB leagues, but in leagues where lots of teams only roster one QB, they could be on the wire:

Brock Purdy. The floor is high and the ceiling is low. At this point, you know what you’re getting and as long as his quartet of star pass catchers stays healthy, you could do much worse.
Jordan Love. Even without 2 of his top weapons, he produced this week. He’s thrown for 6 TDs in 2 games and is looking like he could be this year’s Geno Smith.
Matt Stafford. He’s been just fine without Cooper Kupp, and if Kupp is able to return during the first half of the season, he could definitely give you a handful of weekly Top-10 finishes. He's worth a roster spot if you have the space.

RB: There were valuable long-term adds on the wire in Week 1, as there often are due to either injuries or usage surprises. As noted above, the Nick Chubb injury creates another one of those situations. The other guys listed below are all shorter-term plays, so budget accordingly. None listed after Jerome Ford are priority adds for me.

Jerome Ford. The 5th round pick out of Cincinnati will get the first crack at the lead-back gig for the Browns. The team is high on him, the O-line is great, and it’s an RB-friendly offense, so Ford could be the kind of high-impact free agent addition that can really change your season. Budget accordingly. He showed some big-play ability and top-end speed on Monday night. He’s a high priority add if he’s available, and if you had Nick Chubb and didn’t roster Ford, you’ve got to open the bank to make sure you get him. It’s possible that the Browns will bring in another RB to help out, and of course former Brown Kareem Hunt is out there and he’d be the easiest FA for the team to get up to speed. He’s a sneaky, speculative add if you like playing that game. I don’t think I’d go out of my way to add Pierre Strong, Jr., but if you miss out on Ford, he’s also likely to get some chances.

Zack Moss. He made the column last week, and probably got scooped up in lots of leagues and exspecially with the Texans on tap. JT could return in Week 5, or his absence could continue for a longer time. Does anyone know how this saga will end? And…we’re back to talking about how RBs get paid. For now, Moss is going to lead this backfield (he totally dominated the touches in Week 2) and the offense is playing better than expected.
Craig Reynolds. David Montgomery is probably going to miss at least a couple of games with a quad injury. Reynolds should be in line for sharing work with Jahmyr Gibbs, who the Lions clearly don’t want to overwork. Reynolds had a couple of nice games when a similar opportunity presented itself in 2021. If you’re in need at RB, consider Reynolds as a short-term, emergency-type option.
Matt Breida. Saquon Barkley suffered a sprained ankle at the end of the Giants’ frantic comeback win and the expectation is that he’ll miss up to 3 games. The Giants will likely employ a committee with Breida as the 1A, and Gary Brightwell as the 1B, and the Week 3 matchup at SF is tough, so I wouldn’t spend too much trying to add any Giants’ RBs.
Tony Jones, Jr. He stepped up Monday night after Jamaal Williams left with a hamstring injury, which is the same injury that kept Kendre Miller from dressing. Alvin Kamara still has to serve one more game of his suspension. Jones is definitely just a short-term play, but he could get significant run against the Packers in Week 3.

WR: I’ll give you lots of names to consider for depth and as potential flex or WR3 plays, but none are high priority.

Josh Reynolds. I know, having 2 different Lions named Reynolds on here is confusing. Sorry - I didn’t name them. Josh made the column last week and guess who took his own advice? Me! I picked him up in both of my main leagues, played him over “doubtful” Amari Cooper, and reaped the rewards. It’s better to be lucky than good, folks! Anyway, until Jameson Williams returns from his suspension, Reynolds should continue to be a serviceable option as a WR3 or flex play. Just don’t expect any more 2-TD games from him.
Tank Dell and Robert Woods. Both are decent depth adds. C.J. Stroud is proving to be a QB that can support multiple WRs, and all 3 of the Texans’ top WRs have been fairly productive and especially with the team frequently trailing, and struggling to run the ball. Of these 2, I like Dell better.
Kendrick Bourne. Bourne continues to be the receiver in New England I’d most want to roster, for depth. They’re throwing the ball more than I expected.
Tutu Atwell. Lost in the insanity of Puka Nacua’s torrid start has been Atwell’s usage. He’s got 8 targets in each of the first 2 games. He’s the one who will likely lose out when Kupp returns. But until then, he’s another good depth add.
Rasheed Shahid. He made the column last week and he makes it again. He’s a low volume, big-play threat, making him a boom-or-bust option.
Jameson Williams. If he went undrafted in your league and you’ve got bench space, he’s worth stashing. He’s back after Week 6.
Jayden Reed. I’ve got pretty low confidence on this one, given that his big 2-TD game came with the Packers missing their 2 best skill position players. Still, he led the team in targets and is worth considering as a stash.
Skyy Moore. I have a really hard time recommending any WRs on the Chiefs. There are a lot of them and they’re all unproven, so it’s tough to envision any of them emerging as a reliable weekly start in fantasy. Moore followed up a zero catch game in Week 1 with a nice, albeit low-volume output in Week 2. He’s a stash for me, while the offense shakes itself out.

TE:

Hunter Henry. Two weeks, 2 TDs, Not bad! Mike Gesicki was a bit more involved in Week 2, and the Pats should revert to a less pass-heavy offense, but you have to like the red zone appeal.
Zach Ertz. He’s got a whopping 18 targets in 2 games, which has translated to 12 catches and 77 yards. Given how bad the TE position is, that’s a decent player to have on your roster, even if he’s unlikely to have a lot of yards or TDs.
Taysom Hill. OK, hear me out. The Saints are running out of RBs. Hill got 9 carries on Monday night and turned them into 75 yards and he also attempted a pass and caught a pass. He’s completely boom-or-bust, and the opportunity to get lots of work might be short-lived, but we’ve seen him have some big games before.

PK: I don’t usually spend much time on kickers other than streaming options, but if either Jake Moody or Brandon Aubrey is available in your league, they’re two rookies that are 100% worth picking up unless you’ve got one of Tucker, Butker, Elliott, or Bass. That’s the entire list of kickers I’d consider rostering over them (and as a general rule I would not roster 2 kickers). The pattern here is obvious - get competent kickers on teams that score plenty of points and play defense. You’ll get a decent floor AND a high ceiling, and that’s all you can ask for at a highly unpredictable position.

PK Streamers, Week 3: R. Patterson (vs. ATL), J. Myers (vs. CAR).

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