Pigskin Papers ‘23: Waiver Wire Week 2
Enough is Enough - Add Brock Purdy
(Published September 11, 2023)
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Week 1 is in the books! A lot of big name players came up snake eyes this past weekend (cue the Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Najee Harris, Christian Kirk, Dallas Goedert, and D’Andre Swift managers, among others, nodding their heads sadly). The natural tendency when that happens is to see who might be available in your league’s free agent (FA) pool to shore up your roster. Well, I’m here to help. Welcome readers, to another year of Waiver Wire analysis from the Pigskin Papers!
Working the Waiver Wire is an important component of success in season-long fantasy football. Some analysts believe it’s as important as the draft. A few key components of the Waver Wire experience vary by league, such as league size (the smaller the league, the better the FA pool), bench size (ditto), availability of an IR spot, and how waivers are processed. Some leagues are still in the Dark Ages and use priority waivers. If that’s you, talk to your Commissioner and change to a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) system for next year. If your league uses FAAB, one thing to bear in mind is that your dollars are worth a little more now than they’ll be later in the season. Why? Because any player you buy now might be with you for 13 or 14 more weeks before your playoffs start. With each passing week, that number goes down, but you’re using the same dollars. I’m not arguing that you should blow your entire budget now, and there’s definitely value to having more money later. For the record, I think the Free Agent crop this week is a little below average for a Week 2.
The Process: Each week, I try to identify the top Waiver Wire targets and evaluate the short and long term prospects of those players. I also do my best to reveal which players who are coming off a big week are fool’s gold. Finally, I endeavor to find streamers who might help you in a pinch. Note that this advice is primarily intended for Season-Long leagues, and NOT Dynasty leagues.
Some of the players I’ll talk about won’t be available in your league. As a general rule, I list players who are available in more than 50% of leagues. But what does that even mean? As noted above, a 10 team league with 6 bench spots will have a much larger FA pool than a 14 team league with 8 bench spots. Most leagues fall somewhere in between. This isn’t “one size fits all.” By way of example, I’m not going to discuss either Kenneth Gainwell or Tyler Allgeier in the RB section because both should’ve been drafted in more than half of leagues. If either one is out there in your league, by all means make him a priority add (note: Gainwell is dealing with a rib injury and Philly plays on Thursday night).
Was Week 1 the Beginning of a Love-Fest?
Week 2 Waiver Wire
QB: Aaron Rodgers managers - I feel your pain. Here are some guys to consider:
Brock Purdy once again silenced his critics with an extremely efficient performance in Week 1, on the road against what should be a tough defense. As long as the 49ers’ elite skill position guys stay healthy, Purdy is going to produce. He’s a high-end backup/streaming start in 1 QB leagues, and a viable QB2 starter in Superflex leagues.
Jordan Love was likely drafted as a backup in most 1-QB leagues, and he was surely drafted in all Superflex leagues, but if he’s available and you need QB depth, grab him. Yes, it was the Bears, but he looked the part in Week 1, and that was without Christian Watson.
Others to consider: Sam Howell, Mac Jones.
RB:
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are probably the highest priority adds for this week, and you’ve really got to feel for J.K. Dobbins, whose career just hasn't had a chance. Further complicating things is the news that the Ravens have activated Melvin Gordon from the practice squad. Hill got the TDs after Dobbins went out, but Edwards ran better, and Gordon has had by far the most NFL success but looked pretty cooked in the preseason. Of the 3, I like Edwards the most as he has more experience in the system and has had success in the past. Don’t blow too much of your FAAB budget for any of these guys, but all 3 are worthwhile adds and hopefully one will emerge as fantasy-viable in a good rushing offense.
Joshua Kelley had as many carries (16) as Austin Ekeleer on Sunday, and he made the most of them, rambling for 91 yards and a score. With Ekeler now dealing with an ankle issue, the case is even stronger for prioritizing Kelley as a waiver add and especially if you’ve got Ekeler. We’ve seen this coaching staff rotate backs in the past, but it’s usually been with multiple players behind the starter. If Kelley can continue to get almost all of the RB touches that don’t go to Ekeler, he’ll have real value.
Sean Tucker is definitely worth adding. He’s the clear #2 in Tampa, and had a great preseason. He could challenge Rachaad White for lead back duties at some point this season.
Kyren Williams got 2 rushing TDs this week. Surprise, surprise! Cam Akers is clearly the lead guy here, but he ran for less than 2 YPC on the day and looked more like early 2022 Cam Akers than the guy who ran so well at the end of last season, so we’ll see. I doubt Williams is going to smash going forward, but if you have Akers you should certainly grab him, and if you’re just looking for help and depth you can also consider him. I’d temper expectations though, as better defenses lie ahead for the Rams.
The Colts play the Texans in Week 2, so it’s an appealing matchup for RBs. The issue is figuring out this backfield. A healthy Zack Moss would probably lead the way if he plays, so if you must, that’s who I’d grab. You could also consider Deon Jackson, although he didn’t do much in Week 1 to inspire confidence.
CEH played on just 14 snaps in Week 1 (22% snap share), but touched the ball on half of those snaps. He’s worth stashing if you’ve got a deep bench, if only because of how potent the KC offense can be.
A few RB stashes that are worth picking up, if they’re available and you can find the space: Ty Chandler, Tyjae Spears, and Jerome Ford. I’d especially want them if they’re a handcuff for one of your starting RBs. All except Chandler had a meaningful snap count in Week 1.
Nacua and Atwell Roast the Seahawks’ D
WR:
Puka Nacua, come on down! The 5th round rookie flashed big-time in Week 1, tying Tyreek Hill for the league lead in targets. He caught 11 of his 15 targets for 119 yards. That was quite the debut, and Nakua will probably be an expensive get on waivers as a result. Fellow wideout Tutu Atwell caught 8 passes, also for 119 yards. With Cooper Kupp out at least 3 more games, and Matt Stafford slinging it like it was 2016, both are worth serious consideration. Of the 2, I like Nacua more. The Week 2 opponent (SF) is a tough one, so don’t expect an immediate repeat of Week 1 numbers for either one. Still, both have long-term value this season.
Josh Reynolds is worth an add. He had good WR3/flex value last year when other Detroit WRs were unavailable, and that’s the case right now with Jameson Williams out for the first 6 games. You can expect production in the general neighborhood of his 4 catches for 80 yards on 7 targets in Week 1.
Rashid Shaheed is likely to be pretty boom-or-bust, but Derek Carr likes to take deep shots, and Shaheed profiles as the team’s best deep threat. His 5-89-1 line in Week 1 may not be repeated all that often, but you could do worse at WR3/flex, and if anything happens to Chris Olave or the oft-injured Michael Thomas, he could have a much bigger role in what should be a pretty good passing offense.
A few other WRs that I like for depth: Allen Robinson (I can’t believe I just wrote that, but with Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth both getting hurt yesterday, he could be pretty productive working from the slot), Kendrick Bourne, Curtis Samuel, and Zay Jones.
Hayden Hurst Finds Paydirt
TE: With Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Pat Freiermuth all uncertain heading into Week 2, TE is a position that’s likely to spark some interest. Fortunately, there are some names to consider. I’m assuming Sam LaPorta was drafted in well over 50% of leagues, but if the rookie is out there, definitely consider him as he looks like he’s going to be an important part of the Detroit passing game. Ditto for Luke Musgrave in Green Bay.
Hayden Hurst had a nice stat line this week. Have you seen who the CAR WRs are? That wasteland is a bump to his stock. Hurst produced a 5-41-1 stat line on 7 targets in Week 1. That’s not exactly phenomenal, but remember that we’re talking about the TE position. This offense isn’t going to score a lot, but still, he’s looking like one of the top options for Bryce Young.
Durham Smythe is a decent depth add. Miami is among the most “funneled” passing offenses in the league, with Hill and Waddle soaking up the lion’s share of the targets. Or maybe it’s the cheetah’s and penguin’s share. Whatever - this looks like a very high volume passing offense as long as Tua is upright, and Smythe (7 targets) looked like a viable option in Week 1.
It’s hard for me to recommend anything about the AZ offense, but old man Zach Ertz looked good in Week 1. If you’re desperate, consider him. This team will be trailing a lot this year, and he can still get open and catch the ball.
PK Streamers, Week 2: R. Patterson (v. SEA), M. Gay (@HOU), B. Grupe (@CAR).
D/ST Streamers, Week 2: NYG (@AZ) (I know, I know - but their defense wasn’t the main problem against Dallas, and it’s the Cardinals), NO (@CAR), CLE (@PIT) (Pit may be without several weapons, and CLE looked great in Week 1, albeit at home, in bad weather (once again)).
That’s all I’ve got. Good luck with your Week 2 waiver claims!
***This column (Waiver Wire) appears each Monday, and the Weekly Fantasy Preview each Thursday. Please bookmark the site and come back often. You can also follow on Social Media - on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). I appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
