Pigskin Papers ‘23: Fantasy Preview Week 1
Let the Games Begin!
(Published September 7, 2023, updated for injuries Saturday morning September 9, 2023)
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THE 2023 SEASON IS HERE! Hallelujah. Welcome, readers, to another season of my Rides, Fades and Sleepers. NFL football is once again about to dominate the sports landscape, and I’m here for it. For the first time in many months, we all get to scream at our TVs and curse our bad decisions on draft day. But there’s also the fun side of this crazy game - watching your QB run one in for a TD, or hit your stacked WR for a long TD pass. Buckle up - this season is sure to be full of highs, lows and surprises. It always is.
Week 1 is a bit different than all of the other weeks. On the one hand, just about everyone is healthy and there are no byes, so most fantasy managers have all of their firepower at their disposal. On the other, we haven’t seen how certain offenses are going to look, and how teams are going to divide up touches and targets, and we also haven’t seen which defenses are improved, worse, or just about the same. That takes a few weeks to sort out (at least), but those unknowns will never be as significant as they are before Week 1. So for this week especially, we’re forced to rely more on what we saw last season and in the lead-up to this one.
Weather Report:
Good news! There don’t appear to be any problem spots for week 1. No oppressive heat or rain is forecasted. Four games are in domes.
Injury Report (UPDATED SATURDAY MORNING)
As a reminder, Jonathan Taylor and Kyler Murray are on IR and are out for at least the first 4 games, and Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first 3 games of the season. Travis Kelce, Cooper Kupp, Christian Watson and D.J Chark have all been ruled OUT for Week 1. In fact, Kupp has now been placed on IR so he’s out for at least the first 4 games. Other significant players to watch in Week 1, who are NOT on PUP or IR:
Questionable: Zack Moss, Cordarelle Patterson, Rhamondre Stevenson (likely to play), Adam Thielen, Jerry Jeudy, Marquise Brown, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews (unlikely to play), and George Kittle.
Doubtful: Wan’Dale Robinson
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: KC (30), LAC (27), BAL (26.75), SEA (25.75), MIN (25.75)
Bottom 5: AZ (15.75), HOU (17.25), CAR (18), TEN (18.75), PIT (19.25)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Obviously there is no data yet for 2023. In the analysis below I’ll refer to some rankings and trends from last season. Example - the Texans were truly atrocious against the run in 2022, and outstanding against the pass (in part because teams didn't need to throw on them). Will that change in 2023? I scratched the surface on that above. We just don’t know, so we have to make some assumptions. I’m guessing DeMeco Ryans will have something to say about that, but until we see it, well...
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
It’s a Soft Open for Geno and the ‘Hawks vs. the Rams
Week 1 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
QB:
Elite options - Hurts, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson and Fields. The analysis starts below these 5.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Justin Herbert. If you followed me during the preseason you know I’m high on Herbert, and project him for a bounce-back into top-5 territory. It starts in Week 1 against a Miami defense that will be improved under Vic Fangio, but is without Jalen Ramsey (for a while). This game has shootout written all over it (second highest total on the board, at 50.5), and Miami isn’t the only team that made a big splash with a high-profile coordinator change. Kellen Moore’s offense is ready to roll.
Other Rides:
Kirk Cousins made this list multiple times last season and more often than not, it hit. Cousins is outside the top 10 this week but probably shouldn’t be. He’s at home in the dome, against a suspect Tampa Bay secondary. And Minnestoa’s defense is bad enough that he should be throwing well into the second half.
Jared Goff is always risky on the road, but this game has the highest total of the week and the Lions will need to push it to keep up with the mighty Chiefs. The Chiefs’ defense was a fairly tough draw last year, but without Chris Jones it’s a different beast, and Goff should have enough time to do some damage. Goff is ranked outside the top 15 this week and in DFS that’s good value.
Ride Geno Smith vs. the Rams. Just trust me. I can’t name almost anyone on their defense besides Aaron Donald.
QB Sleeper of the Week: Derek Carr, vs. TEN. The Titans allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs last season and the most FPPG to WRs. Carr should have a strong Saints’ debut against them at home, in the dome, and with Michael Thomas likely playing alongside Chris Olave and some good TEs.
Other Sleepers: LOTS to choose from and that’s going to be a theme all year. QB is deep this season, and while you likely won’t need to start either of these two guys in Week 1 in a 1-QB league,I like them both to outperform as QB2s in a Superflex this week: Jordan Love (@CHI) and Sam Howell (vs. ARI). Both are facing bad defenses with weak pass rushes.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Deshaun Watson. He didn’t have a particularly good preseason, and that was after being mostly bad in his return in 2022. He may get back to his elite status someday, but I’m skeptical. He was on my players to avoid at ADP list and he’s a Fade for me in Week 1, at Cincinnati. The Bengals did lose some key pieces from their secondary but their pass rush is going to bring the heat in this rivalry game.
Other Fades:
Daniel Jones. I like him this season, but the Cowboys did a good job against him last season and even with improved weapons, I expect a pretty pedestrian game from him to start the 2023 campaign. He won’t make this list very often.,
Aaron Rodgers. Let’s stay in New York. The Bills have been a top 5 passing defense for several years running and I think Rodgers is going to get off to a slow start in Week 1. He won’t be terrible, but the numbers won’t be particularly good either.
Brock Purdy. I’d stay away. I think the Steelers are going to be better than people think, on both sides of the ball. This is a tough road start for Purdy.
Rookie QBs. I wouldn't be too quick to start any of the 3 rookies in Week 1 - even Anthony Richardson and his tempting rushing floor. None of them have great matchups, none of them are throwing to a particularly strong group of skill position players, and all are likely going to struggle as they adjust to the NFL.
No Zeke = No Limits
RB:
Elite options - CMC, Ekeler, Chubb; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Tony Pollard. We’ve all been waiting to see what Pollard can do without Zeke sharing the work. Well, it starts Sunday night at the Giants and I think Pollard is in for a big game to start a very big year. The Giants’ defense is improved but still vulnerable in all phases and Pollard should see 20+ touches - I don’t need to give you the history of what happens when he gets 20+ touches.
Other Rides:
J.K. Dobbins. I’m not so high on Dobbins for the season, but in Week 1 he gets a Texans’ defense that was last (or close to it) in almost every metric against RBs last season. I think he and Lamar are both going to have plenty of success on the ground in Week 1, in a very favorable matchup for runners. Ride Dobbins.
Here are several RBs who are ranked outside the top 15 this week who I think have a decent chance to finish inside the top 12 for the week, at the position: Miles Sanders (@ATL, but check injury status), Rachaad White (@MIN), and Khalil Herbert (vs. GB).
RB Sleeper of the Week: It’s a duo! Both Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, Jr. are flex-worthy (or even RB2 worthy, in a pinch) at home against what is certain to be a truly terrible Cardinals’ defense. Both should get plenty to eat.
Other Sleepers: Another duo! I think you can start both Samaje Perine and Javonte Williams against the Raiders this week, and I expect a pretty even split to start the season. Raheem Mostert should get an excellent backfield share against a Chargers’ run D that’s been suspect the last 2 years and makes for a decent play this week.
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Najee Harris. I’m not as down on him as some other analysts, but this is a brutal matchup. The 49ers allowed the fewest FPPG to RBs last season and figure to again be a very stingy run defense.
Other Fades:
Jamaal Williams. You want to play him while Kamara serves his suspension, but not this week. Only the 49ers allowed fewer FPPG to RBs last season. If you do start him, you’ll likely need a TD to salvage his outing.
There are a couple of backfields I’m fading across the board this week due to a combination of tough matchup and unclear usage. This includes both sides of the Jets-Bills game. I’ll also fade the entire Eagles’ backfield at New England. It may be a couple of weeks before we have a clearer picture on how this crowded backfield will share the work.
Olave has a Tasty Week 1 Matchup
WR:
Elite options - Jefferson, Chase, Hill; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: Chris Olave. His big season starts right now, against a Titans’ defense that allowed the most FPPG to WRs last season. Olave is ranked outside the top 10 this week but shouldn’t be. He is going to outperform some bigger names in Week 1.
Other Rides:
Amon Ra St. Brown is an obvious name and he’s highly ranked this week but against KC, and with the Chiefs’ D not at full strength, I see him getting peppered with targets for 4 quarters. Don’t be surprised if he leads all players in targets and catches in Week 1.
Calvin Ridley is another obvious name and he’s ranked outside the Top 10 this week. You may not see that again for a while. Fire him up at the Colts.
Lower down, a few guys ranked in the 20s this week who I’m riding are Christian Watson (@CHI, NOTE: Watson has since been declared OUT), Jahan Dotson (vs. ARI), Chris Godwin (@MIN), and Christian Kirk (@IND). All have plus matchups. And yes, I’m starting whoever I reasonably can on the Commanders this week. This is going to be a theme all year.
WR Sleeper of the Week:
Courtland Sutton. Listen, I’m still very skeptical about this offense. But with the WR corps taking such a major injury hit in the preseason, Sutton is the last man standing and the Raiders are a decent matchup. While we are here, in very deep leagues or for a dart throw in DFS, consider Marvin Mims, who had a terrific preseason.
Other Sleepers: Adam Thielen had an excellent preseason and is the de facto #1 for Carolina. The Falcons aren’t scary and he should be busy, working primarily from the slot. Remember Michael Thomas? Me either, since he has barely played the last few seasons. He scored 2 TDs in Week 1 last year and I like him this week for the same reasons I like Carr and Olave.
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week:
Davante Adams. I think he’ll still be very good this year. But the road matchup at Denver is going to be a tough debut for Jimmy G in silver and black. Adams is ranked inside the top 10 this week and I don’t see a top 10 or even top 15 finish from him in Week 1. But don’t give up - better days ahead.
Other Fades:
DeVonta Smith is going to have a big season, but he is still going to be a bit up and down. I don’t love his chances for a big game at New England in Week 1. You’re starting both Davante and DeVonta, obviously, but temper expectations.
A few more WR fades for you: Drake London (vs. CAR), Hollywood Brown (@WAS), George Pickens (vs. SF), Gabe Davis (@NYJ).
Higbee Should be Busy with Kupp Out
TE:
Elite option - Kelce (who won’t play anyway); the analysis starts below him.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Tyler Higbee. Yes, really. With Kupp already declared out and against the defense (SEA) that yielded the most FPPG to TEs last year, Higbee is in a smash spot. There’s a reason he’s the 9th ranked TE this week.
Other Rides: Juwan Johnson. Sure, let’s ride the entire Saints’ passing game this week. Gerald Everett (vs. Mia) could also be in for a better week than you’d expect.
TE Sleeper of the Week:
Sam LaPorta. I think it will be a nice NFL debut for the rookie. It’s a bit risky, but the Lions could be chasing points and are short-handed at WR.
Other Sleepers: Greg Dulcich and Noah Fant have favorable matchups and could surprise this week. If you’re looking for a replacement for an injured TE, consider these 2.
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week:
Kyle Pitts. He is the TE7 this week and you’re starting him if you have him, but I think the Panthers will play well on defense in this one, especially vs. the pass.
Other Fades: I don’t like the matchup for either Cole Kmet (vs. GB), Luke Musgrave (@CHI), or Pat Freiermuth (vs. SF) - I’d look elsewhere if you have other options.
That’s all I’ve got - good luck to all in Week 1!
DH
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