Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 3
Captain Kirk Should Smash In Week 3
(Published September 21, 2023, UPDATED for weather and injuries, Sunday morning, September 24, @9 a.m. )
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Autumn is finally here, and nothing says autumn like FOOTBALL. We’re 2 weeks into the 2023 NFL season and it’s been an interesting start. Three teams from the NFC South are 2-0, while the Bengals, Chargers and Vikings - all playoff hopefuls - are 0-2. NFL teams that start off 0-2 know full well that their chances of making the playoffs drop from about 10% to less than 5% if they fall to 0-3. The pressure is on.
The playoff percentages aren’t quite as bad in most season-long fantasy football leagues, but if you’re sitting at 0-2 as you read this, the time is now. You need a W. Week 3 is often the first pivotal week of the fantasy season and it’s also when fantasy managers start to get panicky about high draft picks who’ve crapped the bed for the first 2 weeks. If you’ve got Joe Burrow (QB32, one spot behind Zach Wilson), Josh Jacobs (RB33), Ja’Marr Chase (WR63), or George Kittle (TE28), nod your head, take a deep breath, and stay the course. Better days are ahead. A number of players who are off to very slow starts are in my Rides and Sleepers this week.
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LINKS:
PIGSKIN PAPERS WEEK 3 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: waiver-wire-week-3
FANTASY PREVIEW CHEATSHEET VERSION: cheatsheet-2023-week-3
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A few quick thoughts before we get to the Week 3 analysis:
The Bengals aren’t this bad. They started 0-2 last year too. But Burrow reaggravated his calf injury last week, and unfortunately they play on MNF and he could be a GTD. Watch the practice reports carefully.
Someone is coming out of the LAC@MIN game 0-3, but it won’t be for a lack of scoring points. This game is this week’s green light special - 2 offenses that can go up and down the field in a hurry, and 2 defenses that are good at allowing that to happen. The Vegas total for this contest is 54, which is 6 points higher than any other game on the slate, and I’ll gladly take the over. Start whatever you can in this one. You’ll see lots of players from this game featured in the Rides and Sleepers.
The Jets and Giants are both bottom 5 in implied points for this week. Welcome back to the 2020 and 2021 seasons, New York City. I’m having a hard time finding anyone to start from either team this week.
The top scorer in fantasy after 2 weeks is…(checks notes)…The Dallas D/ST, with 52 points. For real! This week they play at Arizona. Good God. Hide the women and children. They’ll eventually play a competent offense, but for now, this is like having vintage LaDanian Tomlinson in your lineup.
* * ** SUNDAY UPDATE SECTION* * * *
Sunday Update - Weather Report: Leftover rain from tropical storm Ophelia is expected in the mid-Atlantic states on Sunday, which could impact NE@NYJ, BUF@WAS, and IND@BAL. The worst spot appears to be the game in New Jersey which could also be windy. The good news - few players are startable in that contest. Isolated T-storms along with hot, sticky weather is forecasted for DEN@MIA.
Sunday Morning Update - Injury Report:
OUT: QB - A. Richardson, B. Young; RB - A. Ekeler, Jam. Williams, J. Hill, D. Jackson (waived); WR - J. Waddle, O. Beckham, Z. Jones; TE: L. Thomas; FROM THURSDAY - S. Barkley and B. Aiyuk did not play
DOUBTFUL: D. Montgomery, S. Ahmed
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: I. Pacheco, D.K. Metcalf, A. St. Brown, D. Hopkins, P. Nacua, C. Samuel
QUESTIONABLE, GTD:
QB: J. Burrow (MNF)
RB: A. Jones (INACTIVE - 11:30 am), K. Gainwell
WR: C. Watson (INACTIVE - 11:30 am), D.K., J. Reynolds, K. Toney
NO INJURY DESIGNATION (will return): K. Miller, J. Meyers, B. Cooks
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TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: KC (30.75), DAL (28.5) ,SF (27.75), LAC (27.75), MIA (27.25)
Bottom 5: ARI (15.5), HOU (16.75), NYJ (17), CHI (17.25), NYG (17.25)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED - 2 weeks is a small sample size, so we’ll also continue to look at last season as we search for defenses to exploit and avoid:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. DAL 2. CLE 3. NO 4. BUF 5. LAR
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. PHI 2. LAC 3. ARI 4. DET 5. CIN
Top 5 vs RB: 1. DAL 2. TEN 3. JAX 4. PHI 5. BAL
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. PIT 2. CAR 3. MIA 4. CHI 5. LV
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DAL 2. MIA 3. CAR 4. CLE 5. HOU
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. LAC 2. IND 3. TEN 4. SEA 5. PHI
Top 5 vs TE: 1. CLE 2. NO 3. BAL 4. BUF 5. NE
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. PHI 2. MIA 3. DET 4. CIN 5. NYJ
Week 3 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had another good performance in Week 2, the Fade call on Kirk Cousins notwithstanding. I hit more than I missed, although there were still plenty of misses (but to be fair, I give a lot of names each week). Let’s see if I can improve in Week 3. Here’s the Week 2 column for those who want to see both the genius and fool sides of the equation: fantasy-preview-week-2-1 .
Shootout Alert! Herbert is Ready.
QB:
Elite options - Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Kirk Cousins vs. LAC. This one is so obvious that I’m scared it’s a trap. Cousins is at home, has fantastic weapons at his disposal, will need to put up points in what should be a classic shootout, and will be facing a Chargers’ secondary that’s been obliterated over the first 2 weeks. They’ve allowed the second most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs, the most passing yards, and 5 total TDs. Ay caramba. He’s ranked as the QB7 this week and I’ve got him penciled in for a Top 5 finish - at worst.
Other Rides:
Justin Herbert @MIN. See above. Herbert is very quietly the QB3 through 2 weeks, and he’s going to need to sling it in a kitchen-sink game that the Chargers absolutely have to have. Last week, the Eagles ran it down the Vikings’ throat, but I expect a different approach from Herbert and Co. and especially with Austin Ekeler looking iffy at best.
Geno Smith vs. CAR. Geno is back, and while the Panthers defense is decent, their offense isn’t, and Seattle is going to have the ball a lot. Last year wasn’t a fluke - this is a real thing. He’s ranked outside the Top 10 this week and I think he’s about to turn in a second straight Top 10 weekly finish.
Jared Goff vs. ATL. Goff at home has been a very solid start, averaging more than 21 FPPG at home since the start of last season. He was my QB Ride of the Week last week and turned in a solid game. I like him to again put up QB1 fantasy numbers this week and to outperform his weekly ranking (QB12). The one caveat is the health of ARSB. If he’s out, I’m much less bullish on Goff.
QB Sleeper of the Week:
C.J. Stroud @JAC. I wouldn’t start Stroud in a 1-QB league, but he’s rising into the area where he’s a viable second starter in Superflex leagues. He’s been very impressive in his first 2 starts, and is spreading the ball well to all 3 of his top wideouts. The matchup is fairly neutral, but with the Texans struggling to run the ball, Stroud has some upside as a thrower, as we saw last week (384 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs).
Other Sleepers: M. Stafford (@CIN) - Who saw this coming??? ; R. Wilson (@MIA) - It’s been ugly, but the fantasy points have been there and they’ll need to chuck it a lot in this game, against a middling pass defense; K. Pickett (@LV) - it’s been really ugly, so it’s kind of now or never for him, and it’s a tasty matchup.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Trevor Lawrence (vs. HOU) - Lawrence is coming off a lackluster performance against the Chiefs and it doesn’t get any easier this week. The Texans faltered a bit last week vs. the running of AR, but they continue to be a bad matchup for pocket passers. They’ve only allowed 1 TD pass in 2 games, and they gave up the second fewest FPPG to QBs last season. Oh, and in 2 games vs. the Texans last season, Lawrence didn’t throw a single TD pass. You’ve been warned.
Other Fades:
Justin Fields (@KC) - His rushing floor will probably ensure a decent output, but he’s again ranked inside the top 10 this week and I can’t get there. The KC defense is a tough matchup as Trevor Lawrence just learned, and Fields is still a work-in-progress as a thrower. He could get some garbage time stats, but still, pass.
Daniel Jones (@SF) - He’s likely to be without Saquon Barkley, and we saw what happened when he faced a stout defense with a real pass rush in Week 1. I’m staying away.
A couple of QB 2s that I’d avoid using in a Superflex this week: M. Jones (@NYJ), and S. Howell (vs. BUF).
Etienne: This Week’s RB Who Gets to Feast on the Texans
RB:
Elite options - CMC , Bijan Robinson, and T. Pollard; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week:
Travis Etienne (vs. HOU) - A year after allowing the most FFPG to RBs, the Texans are already a bottom-6 unit, and they’re tied for the most rushing TDs allowed to RBs in 2 games (4). Enter Etienne, who’s sharing the rock a lot less with Tank Bigsby than we anticipated. Smash alert for Travis.
Other Rides:
Kenneth Walker, Jr. (vs. CAR) - He found the end zone twice last week at DET, and he should find it again this week at home against the Panthers, in a game the ‘Hawks should control from start to finish.
Kyren Williams (@CIN) - If you had told me before the season he’d be ranked as the RB12 in Week 3, on the road at Cincy, I’d have asked for some of what you’re smoking. But here we are. He’s the RB4 through 2 games and with Cam Akers traded away, this is his backfield, in a surprisingly good offense. Continue starting him with confidence.
Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. ATL) - His coming-out party could be this week. He hasn’t had double-digit carries yet, but he did catch 7 passes in Week 2. With David Montgomery likely out, we should finally see usage in the 20-touch range, in a home game the Lions have to have. Prediction - we’ll get at least 3 highlight reel plays from the rookie RBs in this game.
Here are several RBs ranked between 13 and 25 who I’m riding this week: R. Mostert (vs. DEN), J. Cook (vs. WAS), and I. Pacheco (vs. CHI, assuming he plays and if he does not, CEH is a viable sleeper this week).
RB Sleeper of the Week: Tony Jones, Jr. (@GB) - He’s the last man standing in the Saints backfield, and even with Kendre Miller expected to suit up, Jones should get plenty of volume this week against a vulnerable GB run defense, making him flex-worthy in the last week of the Kamara suspension.
Other Sleepers:
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill (vs. IND) - The Ravens are bringing in more RBs for tryouts, and Melvin Gordon is still hanging around, but for now it’s these 2, and I think both can give you enough to play a flex role, for now. NOTE: Since this article originally posted, Hill has been ruled OUT this week. Edwards is a strong RIDE call this week vs. the Colts.
Jaylen Warren (@LV) - The bad news: 9 carries in 2 games. The good news: 9 catches in 2 games. The other good news - the Steelers are playing the Raiders. If there was ever a week to roll the dice on Warren, it’s this week.
More RB sleepers this week: Tyler Allgeier (@DET), C. Reynolds (vs. ATL), T. Bigsby (vs. HOU).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Rhamondre Stevenson (@NYJ) - Stevenson’s season is off to a slightly disappointing start (although he did manage a TD last week) and it won’t get easier on the road against a tough Jets’ defense that has played 2 very good offenses and hasn’t allowed an RB TD yet on the season. I don’t think he’ll be awful, but he’s ranked inside the Top 10 this week and I think he’ll struggle to finish close to that.
Other Fades:
Brian Robinson, Jr. (@BUF) - Robinson has been a very pleasant surprise so far this season, but it’s likely to be tough sledding at Buffalo. The Bills completely stymied Josh Jacobs last week (-2 rushing yards) and outside of one very long run by Breece Hall in Week 1, they’ve given up very little to RBs so far on the season.
Zack Moss (@BAL) - He ran great last week, and is clearly the guy for now, but the Ravens are stout vs. the run and I think they’ll bottle up Moss and especially with AR set to miss this game (concussion). The Ravens are top 5 vs. RBs so far this season and like the Jets, they’ve yet to allow an RB to find the end zone.
A.J. Dillon (vs. NO) - I’ll just list him as a Fade every week until people catch on. It’s also a negative matchup.
Jerome Ford (vs. TEN) - He’ll get volume in his first start and we saw his explosiveness on Monday night, but the Titans are just a difficult matchup. They allowed the second fewest FPPG to RBs last season and guess what? That’s their ranking after 2 games this season.
Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook (vs. NE) - This offense is broken with Zach Wilson under center, and this figures to be a low-scoring game. Raheem Mostert gashed the NEP defense last week, but that’s because of how concerned they were with stopping the big pass play. This week, um…not so much. Throw in the uncertain share split and I’ll stay away from both, for now.
Fire Up Allen Again For More Fantasy Goodness
WR:
Elite options - Jefferson, Chase (yes, Chase), and Hill; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: Keenan Allen (@MIN) - Allen made my Rides list last week and he delivered a big game that included 2 TD catches. He’s ranked at the bottom of the Top 10 this week and I like him to smash to a Top 5 finish once again, for all the reasons sprinkled throughout this column.
Other Rides:
A.J. Brown (@TB) - the squeaky wheel doesn’t always get the grease, but I think the Eagles will want to involve Brown heavily this week. He hasn’t been unleashed yet this season, but in a game where Philadelphia won’t be able to run it like they usually do, look for Brown to find the end zone at least once.
Deebo Samuel (vs. NYG) - Brandon Aiyuk is a GTD, and even if he plays I think this will be a game where Deebo gets plenty of action, including some carries in the red zone. Fire him up with confidence in a game SF should dominate.
Two receivers ranked outside the Top 20 who I like a lot this week: Amari Cooper (vs. TEN) is facing a defense that allowed the most FPPG to WRs last year and has allowed the third most through 2 games this season, and the perpetually underrated Tyler Lockett (vs. CAR).
A few more Rides ranked in the low 20s this week: C. Godwin (vs. PHI), G. Pickens (@LV), and N. Collins (@JAC).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Gabe Davis (@WAS) - Wait, you’re saying. How is GabeDave a sleeper? Well, he’s the WR40 this week, that’s how. Talk to the expert rankers. The notoriously boom-or-bust, big-play dependent Davis boomed last week, and I think he can do that again against a Commanders’ secondary that’s not that good, and susceptible to the big play.
Other Sleepers:
Zay Flowers (vs. IND) and J. Addison (vs. LAC) also shouldn’t qualify as sleepers at this point, but both rookies are ranked below 30 and I’ll eat my hat if they both don’t turn in Top 30 performances again this week. Both are for real, folks.
Josh Reynolds (vs. ATL) - Josh made the sleepers list last week (and my own lineup - I follow my own advice, folks) and he rewarded those who started him with a Top 10 weekly finish. I don’t expect 2 TDs to happen again, but I do think he has a solid floor and is again flex-worthy at home, and especially if ARSB can’t suit up.
OK, let’s get to some REAL sleepers - guys ranked below 40 this week, who I think you can throw darts with if you’re in need, or want a DFS flier: E. Moore (vs. TEN), R. Shaheed (@GB), K. Toney (vs. CHI), A. Thielen (@SEA), T. Dell (@JAC).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week:
Garrett Wilson (vs. NE) - Look, maybe he makes one big play per week (like he did last week @DAL) to keep saving his fantasy days, but I don’t want to have to count on that. Bottom line: His numbers when Zach Wilson is under center are just plain bad. It’s also a tough matchup. I hate putting him here, but they pay me too much to not give an honest assessment.
Other Fades:
Calvin Ridley (vs. HOU) - I’m sure they’ll try to get him the ball a lot after last week’s struggles, and maybe he’ll have a decent stat line, but people need to start understanding that passing game matchups vs. the Texans are very tough. They were one of the 5 stingiest defenses vs. WRs last year, and they’re already among the 5 stingiest this year. You’re starting him if you have him, but temper expectations.
DeAndre Hopkins (@CLE) - This one is mostly about the matchup. The Browns have a strong pass defense, and Hopkins is not at 100%.
Jahan Dotson (vs. BUF) - Dotson is off to a slow start, and I don’t think a date with the Bills is going to change that. His forte is contested catches and jump balls, but he doesn't have a single red zone target in 2 games. Don’t give up on him just yet, but I think you can safely bench him this week.
Romeo Doubs (vs. NO) - Lost in the fact that he scored 2 TDs in Week 1 is that the usage is alarmingly low (6 catches on 8 targets in 2 games). He’s a very risky start.
Keep Rolling with LaPorta
TE
Elite option - Kelce; the analysis starts below him.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: T.J. Hockenson (vs. LAC). Duh. He’s the TE3 this week and I’m confident he’ll finish as a top 3 TE. It’s all hands on deck for this shootout. I know, this is obvious analysis and maybe going forward he and Andrews should be in the Kelce category - let’s give that one more week.
Other Rides:
Sam LaPorta (vs. ATL) - He’s finished inside the Top 10 TEs each of the first 2 weeks, which is very impressive for a rookie at this position. I see no reason why he won’t be busy again this week, and especially with ARSB iffy. He’s proving to be a very reliable option for Jared Goff.
Pat Freiermuth (@LV) - I know, I know. It’s been brutal so far. But you drafted him for a reason. The matchup at LV is a good one, D. Johnson is still out, and for the first time this season, the Steelers aren’t playing a top 5 defense with a ferocious pass rush. So Pickett should have time to process and make throws (see QB Sleepers, above). Don’t give up on MUUUTH.
Dallas Goedert (@TB) - Week 2 was a lot better than Week 1 (when he was shut out), and I think another solid outing is in store for him, in a game that’s going to be surprisingly close, and high-scoring.
TE Sleeper of the Week:
Jake Ferguson (@ARI) - When is the last time the Cards weren’t way below average in covering TEs? 2015? 2016? When they played in St. Louis? Chicago? Ferguson found the end zone last week, and I like his chances again this week.
Other Sleepers:
Hunter Henry (@NYJ) - He has 2 TDs in 2 games, so why not? He’s clearly a red zone favorite for Mac Jones, and while the Jets are a tough D overall, they’re bottom 5 vs. opposing TEs so far on the young season.
Hayden Hurst (@SEA) - The Seahawks allowed the most FPPG to TEs last season, and the Panthers don’t have a lot of other weapons. I haven’t recommended many Panthers so far this season, but this is a decent spot for him.
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Dalton Schultz (@JAC) - This just hasn’t worked out so far, even with C.J. Stroud being way better than expected right out of the gate. Until I see it from him, I can’t recommend rolling him out there.
Other Fades:
Cole Kmet (@KC) - Rinse and repeat. This is a bad passing offense, and while Kmet has talent, he’s just very hard to trust right now.
Luke Musgrave (vs. NO) and Chig Okonkwo (@CLE) - The Saints and Browns rank 1-2 right now in FPPG allowed to TEs, and neither defense has given up more than 20 receiving yards to the position, total, over 2 games. That, my friends, is what stingy means. It’s a small sample size, but no thanks.
PK and D/ST Streamers: See the Week 3 Waiver Wire column (link is above).
That’s all I’ve got. Good luck to all in Week 3!
DH
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