NFL Playoffs Wild Card Preview: The Rematches!
Mr. Irrelevant: The Hottest QB on the Hottest Team
(Published January 11, 2023)
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Welcome to Super Wild Card Weekend! We’re about to be treated to a buffet of 6 playoff games played over 3 days, culminating on Monday night. Buckle up folks - that’s a whole lot of football.
Before we break down the 6 matchups, here are some interesting tidbits:
REMATCHES: Every one of the 6 games is a rematch, and 3 are division games, meaning it's the 3rd meeting of the season.
FRESH FACES: 7 of the 14 playoff teams did not make the playoffs last season: Baltimore, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Miami, Minnesota, NY Giants, and Seattle. This marks the 33rd straight season where at least 4 new teams made the playoffs.
YOUNG GUNS: We don’t know if Lamar Jackson will play this week, and Tua has been declared out, but the #1 QB of all 7 AFC Playoff teams is 27 (Mahomes) or younger. Over in the NFC it’s a different story. Brady is 45, 2 QBs are in their 30s, and another is 29.
BLOWOUTS: Last season’s Super WC Weekend was short on drama. The average margin of victory was a whopping 17 points. Thankfully, the playoffs were phenomenal after that. Will we get a few blowouts this weekend? Vegas thinks so. Both of the 7 seeds are double digit underdogs, after they got into the playoffs via a game winning field goal against a losing team, at home.
FIRST-TIMERS: 5 of the 12 Head Coaches in this round will be coaching their first playoff game, and at least 5 of the starting QBs will be making their first-ever playoff start (it could be more, depending on who starts for Miami and Baltimore).
On to the matchups, which are listed in the order they’ll be played (all times Eastern).
#7 SEA (9-8) @ #2 SF (13-4) (Sat., 4:30 PM, FOX, SF -10, O/U 42.5)
Prior Matchups: Week 2 @ SF, 27-7 49ers; Week 15 @ SEA, 21-13 49ers.
Storylines: The 49ers come in as the hottest team in the NFL. They finished the campaign with 10 straight wins, 7 of them by double digits. Brock Purdy, the last player taken in the 2022 draft, won all 5 of his starts and has thrown the most TD passes in the league (11) over those 5 weeks. Geno Smith, in his 10th season, is in the playoffs as a starting QB for the first time. The 49ers swept the season series, but before that, the Seahawks dominated, winning 14 of 16 games from 2014-2021. They last met in the Playoffs in 2013, a Seattle win. Pete Carroll has the Seahawks back in the playoffs after a 2 year absence and he’s 10-8 all time in the postseason, with one Super Bowl win and one loss. Kyle Shanahan is 4-2 in the playoffs and has gotten the 49ers to 2 NFC Title games and a Super Bowl in the last 3 seasons.
When SEA has the ball: Geno Smith set a Seahawks record this season with a 69.8% completion percentage. Wideouts D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett plus rookie RB Kenneth Walker are dangerous playmakers and this has been a surprisingly good offense this season. The problem is what they’re facing. The 49ers are the #1 ranked defense, and the #1 rushing defense by a wide margin. They held the Seahawks to 20 total points in 2 games. Nick Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks, and the 49ers fly to the ball and have playmakers at all 3 levels. Sustaining drives is going to be a challenge. Look for Smith to take some deep shots - the 49ers gave up some big pass plays late in the season. Hitting a few of those could keep them in the game.
When SF has the ball: The 49ers are also formidable on this side of the ball, with the 5th ranked offense. The midseason addition of CMC was a game-changer, and the return of Elijah Mitchell allows the team to keep CMC fresh for 4 quarters. Purdy has been making good decisions and great throws, and has rediscovered George Kittle (7 TDs in the last 4 games). Deebo is back too, and when you put it all together and throw in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and play-calling, containing this offense on the road is a very big ask for the Seahawks’ young, 30th-ranked defense.
The Pick: This one won’t be close. The 49ers are on fire, are too good on both sides of the ball, and have been winning the turnover battle (+9 in Purdy’s 5 starts). It’s usually hard to beat a team 3 times in one season, but not this time. The Seahawks have greatly exceeded expectations. The ride ends Saturday. 49ers 31 - Seahawks 14.
Lawrence Hits the Big Stage
#5 LAC (10-7) @ #4 JAC (9-8) (Sat., 8:15 PM, NBC, LAC -2, O/U 47.5)
Prior Matchup: Week 3 @ LAC, 38-10 Jaguars
Storylines: This is the tightest line of the weekend. Doug Pederson has the Jags in the playoffs just one year after they had the worst record in the NFL for the second straight season, and they won their last 5 games to win the AFC South. It’s the playoff debut for both Justin Herbert (24) and Trevor Lawrence (23), making this one of the most anticipated games of the weekend. It’s also this weekend’s only matchup of 4,000 yard passers. The Jags destroyed the Chargers 38-10 in LA in Week 3, one of the most surprising early season results. Pederson already won a Super Bowl with the Eagles, while Brandon Staley has yet to coach a playoff game. Staley played his starters in a meaningless game last week, and a couple of key players got banged up.
When LA has the ball: The Chargers’ offense has rarely been at full strength this season. Mike Williams left Sunday’s game with back spasms and is “day-to-day”. The Chargers are a different team without a healthy Williams, so his availability is key. [UPDATE - Williams has been ruled OUT]. Austin Ekeler found the end zone a league-best 38 times in the last 2 seasons, and caught 107 passes this year, tied for the second most all-time by an RB. Look for Herbert to lean on Ekeler early and often. The Jags allowed the 5th most passing yards this season, but their defense has improved down the stretch, allowing just 1 TD over the final 3 weeks of the season. This will be more of a challenge for the Chargers than you’d expect, but they should still put up points against a middling defense.
When JAC has the ball: Lawrence improved his play late in the season, and also cut down on his mistakes. He’s playing the best ball of his young career, but there’s still inconsistency at times. The Chargers had the 5th worst run defense this season, and I expect the Jags to exploit that weakness with a lot of Travis Etienne and JaMycal Hasty. Look for good balance from the Jags and for TE Evan Engram to be busy as well. Another Charger who left the game last week was star DE Joey Bosa, but it sounds like he’ll be OK.
The Pick: I like the way the Jags are playing, and I think the coaching disparity gives them a slight edge in what should be a close game. I don’t trust Staley with 4th down decisions and clock management. Herbert is ready for this. Is Lawrence? That’s what's giving me pause, but I’ll still go with the home team in what could be a shootout. Jaguars 27 - Chargers 24.
The Bills Have a Lot to Play For
#7 MIA (9-8) @ #2 BUF (13-3) (Sun., 1:00 PM, CBS, BUF -13, O/U 43.5)
Prior Matchups: Week 3 @ MIA, Dolphins 21-19; Week 15 @ BUF, Bills 32-29
Storylines: This AFC East division rivalry goes back to 1966 and Miami leads the all-time series 62-55-1. They’ve met 4 times in the playoffs, all in the 1990s and Buffalo won 3 of those 4 including the 1992 AFC title game. “Miami’s got the oranges, but Buffalo’s got the Juice,” was a fun slogan, but Miami dominated the Bills in the 70s, with 20 straight wins at one point. The teams split a pair of very tight games this season. Miami’s win in Week 3 (a crazy game in which the Bills ran 90 plays to Miami’s 39, but still lost) snapped a 7 game win streak for the Bills in the series. The Dolphins lost 5 of their last 6 and squeaked one out against the Jets to get the final AFC playoff spot. The Bills and Dolphins experienced the 2 scariest moments of the season, both at Cincinnati, and the players impacted are part of the storyline this week. Damar Hamlin’s remarkable recovery continues, and more good news: He’s back in Buffalo and has been released from the hospital. Tua suffered another concussion in Week 16 against Green Bay, and has been ruled out.
When MIA has the ball: The Dolphins are battling significant injuries on offense. Tua, Teddy Bridgewater, and LT Terron Armstead all missed Week 18, and Raheem Mostert, who had a terrific game against the Bills in Week 15 and another one against the Jets last week, injured his thumb late in the Jets game and may not be able to go this week. [UPDATE - Mostert has been ruled OUT]. Miami might also be without right tackle Brandon Shell. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill also got dinged up during the Jets game. Tua has already been ruled out, and Bridgewater is iffy at best. [UPDATE - Thompson has been announced as the starting QB]. It will be a very long day for Miami if Skylar Thompson is the QB, and/or if other key pieces can’t suit up against a Buffalo defense that has slipped a little, but is still tough and especially at home.
When BUF has the ball: The Bills haven’t looked as sharp on offense of late, and Josh Allen continues to make more mistakes than he should, but when Allen, Diggs, and company are humming, they can be impossible to stop. It feels like that’s coming, and Allen has had his way with Miami including 7 total TDs in the 2 games this season. Miami’s defense is stout against the run, is playing well, and did a better job against the Bills this season. But if their offense can’t stay on the field, it’s hard to imagine them holding up for a full game.
The Pick: This one won’t be close. The Bills have been through a lot the last 2 weeks, and they’re ready to move forward with purpose. They have unfinished business from last season and it starts on Sunday, at home where they’re 7-1 this season. Miami is shorthanded and as a result this game is a big mismatch. Bills 34 - Dolphins 10.
Can the G-Men Slow Down JJ?
#6 NYG (9-7-1) @ #3 MIN (13-4) (Sun., 4:30 PM, FOX, MIN -3, O/U 48)
Prior Matchup: Week 16 @ MIN, Vikings 27-24
Storylines: This game has the highest total of the weekend. Brian Daboll has the Giants back in the playoffs in his first season as Head Coach. The same is true for Vikings’ HC Kevin O’Connell. The difference is that Daboll inherited a team that was tied for the NFL’s worst record over the last 5 years. The Vikings were 11-0 in one score games this season, including their last-second win over the Giants 3 weeks ago on a 61 yard FG. They’re the first team ever with 12 or more wins and a negative point differential. Daniel Jones has emerged in the final year of his rookie deal, and is in the playoffs for the first time as is Saquon Barkley. Justin Jefferson made a run at 2,000 yards this year and has solidified his status as a superstar. Kirk Cousins is in the playoffs as a starting QB for the 4th time, and has 1 win in 4 career playoff games. This is his first home playoff start in Minnesota. Like the Bills, the Vikings have lost 4 Super Bowls and are still looking for their first Lombardi.
When NYG has the ball: Jones has really developed this year. The mistakes are way down and he’s become a much more effective dual threat. The Giants have patched it together at WR, and the good news is that the Vikings were the league’s 2nd worst pass defense this year. Look for the Giants to use runs to Barkley to set up play-action passing and some bootlegs for Jones. Barkley had a big game in Week 16 and should be prominently featured again. The Giants will need to score points to keep up with the VIkings.
When MIN has the ball: When Cousins has time he can get into a rhythm and pick apart the defense with his talented weapons, and he’s been especially good at home and on 3rd down. Dalvin Cook didn’t have his best season, but he’s still dangerous, including as a pass catcher. The Giants bring pressure in the form of extra rushers as much as any team, which can expose their secondary. In the first game, they had no answer for Jefferson (12-133-1 on 16 targets) or T.J. Hockenson (13-109-2 on 16 targets). Kayvon Thibodeaux has been a beast over the last month, and the Giants will need someone to step up and make a game-changing play or two. They sacked Cousins 4 times in Week 16 but he didn’t have any turnovers - when he doesn’t turn it over, the Vikings usually win. One player to watch is Center Garrett Bradbury, who has missed the last 5 games. If he can’t go, the Vikings will again need to lean on third stringer Chris Reed.
The Pick: Everyone and their mother is picking the Giants this week. I get it - they almost beat them 3 weeks ago and they’ll come to play. The Vikings have won every close game they’ve played and their luck has to eventually run out. Not this week. Their passing game is once again going to be too much for Brian Daboll’s undermanned secondary. Vikings 30 - Giants 23.
From Tigers to Bengals, These 2 Cats Are Tough to Tame
#6 BAL (10-7) @ #3 CIN (12-4) (Sun., 8:15 PM, NBC, CIN -8, O/U 40.5)
Prior Matchups: Week 5 @ BAL, Ravens 19-17; Week 18 @ CIN, Bengals 27-16
Storylines: Our final division matchup takes us to the black and blue AFC North. The Ravens and Bengals played each other in Week 18, so this is an immediate rematch, in the same building. The Bengals got to the Super Bowl last year and are back for more. They also come in red-hot. Their last loss was on Halloween night and since then they’ve won 8 in a row (with one canceled game). On the flip side, The Ravens limped into the playoffs without Lamar Jackson and the big question is whether he’ll play this week. The line keeps moving away from the Ravens, which suggests a lot of doubt, and it’s unclear if Tyler Huntley will be ready either. The teams split their games this season, but the Bengals swept the Ravens in 2021, scoring 41 points both times. [UPDATE TO ENTIRE SECTION: Jackson has been ruled OUT].
When BAL has the ball: The Ravens didn’t score more than 17 points in any of their last 6 games, and while most of that was without Lamar, the problem runs deeper than his absence. The Ravens’ offense lacks playmakers and speed and is especially weak at receiver. Still, it will be a huge lift for the Ravens if Lamar can play (and run like he normally does). Lamar or not, the key to winning for Baltimore will be to keep the game low scoring and to do that they’ll need to sustain drives, run the ball effectively, and get it to Mark Andrews when they need to move the chains. None of that will be easy against the Bengals, who rank 5th against the run and know what’s coming from the Ravens.
When CIN has the ball: The Bengals can at times look unstoppable (for example, their first half against New England a few weeks ago), and at other times they can struggle to move the ball. How they’re doing in protecting Joe Burrow is often a good indicator of whether they can run their offense efficiently. They’ve got weapons galore, and a QB that can make every throw and isn’t scared to stand in and take hits. The Ravens have played excellent defense for the last 6 weeks, and did a much better job against Burrow this season vs. last season. Keeping this offense to under 20 points, which is their path to victory, is a tall order.
The Pick: A lot depends on whether Lamar plays, but the Bengals are the better team either way. You never know what will happen with division rivals and these teams know each other very well. Cincinnati is battle-tested from last year and while it won’t be as easy as it was in Week 18, they’ll survive a scare and get by the Ravens. Bengals 23 - Ravens 16.
Can Old Man Tom Make Another Run?
#5 DAL (12-5) @ #4 TB (8-9) (Mon., 8:15 PM, ABC/ESPN, DAL -2.5, O/U 45.5)
Prior Matchup: Week 1 @ DAL, Bucs 19-3
Storylines: The Monday nighter is the only game featuring 2 teams that made the playoffs last year, and this 4-5 first round matchup has been staring at us for more than a month. Both of these teams came into the season as favorites in the NFC, but their Week 1 matchup was mostly a dud, with only 1 TD scored, and Dak Prescott leaving the game with an injury. Tom Brady is back in the playoffs for the 19th time, and is seeking his 8th Super Bowl win. Prescott missed 5 games after the Bucs game and has struggled with turnovers all year. He tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (15) despite playing in only 12 games. He’s in the playoffs for the 4th time as a starter and has a 1-3 record in 4 playoff games.
When DAL has the ball: Dak needs to protect the ball. He’s thrown at least 1 pick in 7 straight games, and costly turnovers have hurt the Cowboys. The Dallas offense was beyond awful in Week 18 at Washington, in a game that wasn’t meaningless. When things are going well, Dallas has a potent offense with some big weapons that you have to account for. CeeDee Lamb was a monster down the stretch, Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliott form a strong RB duo, and Dalton Schultz is a good chain-mover. This game could come down to field goals and Brett Maher is one of the league’s best kickers from long range.
When TB has the ball: It’s a little hard to believe that Brady set a personal record for completions, and threw for almost 4,700 yards. For most of the season, Tampa’s offense was bad and they especially struggled in the first halves of games. They also struggled to finish drives with TDs (they attempted 38 FGs, second only to the Ravens), and Mike Evans didn’t score a TD from Week 3 to Week 17. Running the ball effectively has been a struggle all year. Can they just flip a switch and suddenly be the juggernaut offense that was expected? We’ll see. The Cowboys were tied for second in the NFL with 54 sacks, and the Bucs will need to keep Brady clean, a big ask.
The Pick: Dallas looked atrocious last week, and the interceptions are a big concern. Picking them, not to mention picking against Brady, feels shaky. Tampa’s offense finally looked decent in Week 17, but it’s hard to ignore how poorly this team played all year, and how often they had less than 10 points at the half. Dallas will pressure Brady, and a hurried Brady isn’t the same guy. I expect a close game with Dallas having just enough firepower to get the road win. Cowboys 26 - Bucs 23.
That’s all I’ve got - enjoy the games and come back next week for the Divisional Round Preview.
DH
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