NFL Playoffs Division Round Preview - Can We Get an Upset?

Philly and Hurts: The Hat Trick vs. Big Blue?

      (Published January 19, 2023)

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Welcome to the Division Round! Super Wild Card Weekend didn’t disappoint, as 4 of the 6 games came down to the closing minutes. We also witnessed an epic comeback (or an epic collapse), a potential 14 point swing on a “Fumble-6”, a near upset by a 2-TD underdog, a beat-down of the winningest QB in NFL history, and another stellar performance by Mr. Irrelevant. Good stuff.

    The Wild Card Round featured 3 division games, all with big lines of 8.5 or more, but that’s not how it played out. Seattle had a one point lead at the half, but the 49ers put it on them after intermission and ran away for a big win. The other 2 were both big upsets in the making. The Ravens stayed right with the Bengals for the full 60 minutes, and the game swung on that fateful fumble at the goal line, returned 98 yards the other way by Sam Hubbard. In Buffalo, a shorthanded Miami team went toe-to-toe with the heavily favored Bills, who hung on for a 34-31 win. One more division game is on tap this week (NYG@PHI), and if Dallas can upset the 49ers, we’ll get a final one in the NFC Title game.

     Last year’s Division Round round may have been the single best weekend of playoff games in the history of the league. Three of the 4 games went down to the wire and were decided by 3 points, and the 4th game (Chiefs 42 - Bills 36 in OT) was an instant classic. Can this weekend’s games provide anything close to that? Before we go there, here are quick takeaways from each Wild Card game:

• At what point is the sample size big enough to ask if Brock Purdy should be the 49ers’ starting QB next season? The magical run continued on Saturday, and not only is Purdy now perfect in 6 starts, but he continues to put up eye-popping numbers while also passing the eye test. Yes, the 49ers are an ideal situation for a rookie QB, and yes, the schedule has been easy, but come on! He was a 7th round pick and is still just a rookie. The 49ers gave up an awful lot to move up to draft Trey Lance. 

• The Chargers won the turnover battle 5-0, built a 27-0 lead, and lost! It was the 3rd largest playoff comeback in NFL history, and the first time a team lost a playoff game while winning the turnover battle by 5 or more. True story: The Chargers only ran the ball 7 times after taking that 27-0 lead. There’s plenty of blame to go around, and let’s give the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence a ton of credit, but that had to be a long plane ride home for L.A. The Chargers fired their OC, but HC Brandon Staley appears to have survived this debacle.

• I understand that Lamar wasn’t healthy enough to play, but why didn’t he travel with the team and why wasn’t he on the sideline with his teammates? Wouldn’t it have made sense for him to be there to help Huntley and the offense however he could? What if they had won and had a game this week? It’s a topic for the offseason, but this situation is bizarre. 

• Great job, Dolphins and Mike McDaniel. No Tua, no Teddy, no Mostert, the Bills were riding a wave of emotion, and the team hung tough in Buffalo for the 2nd time in a month. The total margin of victory in the 3 Dolphins-Bills game this year: 8. If the Bills are going to make a deep run, Josh Allen needs to clean up the turnovers. He now leads the NFL in that category with 22.

• It had to happen at some point - the Vikings lost a one-score game. They had no answer for Daniel Jones and the Giants’ creative play calling. No matter what happens the rest of the way, Jones is going to get paid, and he should. This was a near perfect game from Jones, the Big Blue offense, and OC Mike Kafka.

• That was the Dak Prescott we’ve been waiting for! Dak was fully in command: Seeing the whole field, zipping his throws, and using his legs to make big plays when needed. On the flip side, I don’t think that was Brady’s last game, but that stinker from the Bucs’ offense was a fitting end to a very poor season for that unit. 

     On to the matchups, which are listed in the order they’ll be played (all times Eastern, all betting lines as of Thursday morning).

**PIGSKIN PAPERS WILD CARD ROUND RECORD: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, SEE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-preview-the-rematch

THE MATCHUPS

It’s a Bird, it’s a Plane…

#4 JAC (10-8) @ #1 KC (14-3) (Sat., 4:30 PM, NBC, KC -8.5, O/U 53) 

Prior Matchup: Week 10 @ KC, 27-17 Chiefs

Storylines: Both teams are riding winning streaks - 6 straight for JAC and 5 straight for KC. The relationship between Andy Reid and Doug Pederson goes back 28 years to when Reid was an Assistant Coach in Green Bay, and Pederson was one of the QBs. Pederson worked as an Assistant Coach on Reid’s staff in Philadelphia and as Reid’s OC in Kansas City. It’s student vs. teacher, and both coaches have won a Super Bowl. Reid has 19 playoff wins as a HC, tied with Don Shula for 3rd all time, and one behind Tom Landry. Reid is 28-5 coming off a bye, including playoffs. The Chiefs have played in the last 4 AFC Championship games. The year before that streak started, the Jaguars made it to the AFC Championship but lost a close one to the Patriots, 24-20. This is their first trip to the Playoffs since that season. Trevor Lawrence has never lost on a Saturday in his High School, College, or Pro football career. Neither defense is ranked in the top half of the league, and this game has the highest total of the week (53).

When JAC has the ball: It was a tale of 2 halves for the Jaguars against the Chargers, and they can’t afford to be sloppy in this game. Which Trevor Lawrence will we get? The one who looked overwhelmed and threw 4 picks in the first half of his first playoff game, or the one that calmly led a monumental comeback and threw for 4 TDs? In the first game between these teams, Lawrence didn’t turn it over and he and Christian Kirk connected for 100+ yards and 2 TDs, but the team only managed 17 points. That won’t cut it against KC. The offense is ascending, with Evan Engram becoming an important weapon alongside Kirk and the Joneses and Travis Etienne emerging as the featured back. The Chiefs’ defense improved as the season went on. They ended the season just outside the top 10 in total defense and only the Eagles had more sacks than KC’s 55. Look for Pederson to empty the kitchen sink.

When KC has the ball: It all starts with Mahomes, who had a brilliant season and is the leading candidate for league MVP. With Tyreek Hill gone, the offense looked different but was still highly efficient. The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring at almost 30 ppg and they were also #1 in both total offense and passing offense. 28 of Mahomes’s 41 TD passes went to RBs and TEs, tying an NFL record. The majority of those went to Travis Kelce and Jerick McKinnon, and Mahomes and Kelce have to be licking their chops after watching Gerald Everett torch the Jaguars for 6-109-1 last week. Kelce hasn’t scored in 6 straight games and that should come to an abrupt end this week. The Jaguars can rush the passer, but they were a bottom 10 defense on the season and they’re a young unit that will have its hands full with Reid’s diverse and talented offense. 

The Pick: It’s been a great ride for the Jags, and if Lawrence continues to develop on schedule they aren’t far from being a serious contender in the AFC. But the ride ends here, against a rested Chiefs team who’ve won 4 straight divisional round games, and will be playing in front of one of the league’s best crowds. The Chiefs have been like a cat this year, toying with their prey before killing it, and were just 2-6 ATS at home. They probably won’t cover this big line either, but they’ll advance. Chiefs 31 - Jaguars 24.

Is Another Giant Upset Brewing?

#6 NYG (10-7-1) @ #1 PHI (14-3) (Sat., 8:15 PM, FOX, PHI -7.5, O/U 48) 

Prior Matchups: Week 14 @ NYG, 48-22 Eagles, Week 18 @ PHI, 22-16 Eagles

Storylines: This is one of the oldest (and best) rivalries in the NFL, dating back to 1933. The teams have always played in the same division. The Eagles swept the 2 games this season, but the Giants didn’t play their starters in Week 18. The Eagles lead the all-time series 92-88-2. Amazingly, the teams have only met 4 times in the postseason, splitting 2-2. The last meeting was in 2008, a 23-11 Eagles win in the Divisional Round. The rivalry has had its moments: “The Hit” (1960 - Chuck Bednarik’s blindside hit that knocked Frank Gifford unconscious), “The Miracle at the Meadowlands I” (1978 - Joe Pisarcik handoff to Larry Csonka, Herman Edwards fumble 6 for a winning TD in the closing seconds), and “the Miracle at the Meadowlands II” (2010, DeSean Jackson’s game winning punt return TD as time expired), and many more. I’m guessing all of my friends and relatives who are Giants fans - and there are many - can feel their blood boiling right now. Sorry guys. My youngest son (10 years old at the time) was at the DeSean Jackson game with my wife and that punt return scarred him. You get the picture - these teams, and their fan bases, DO NOT LIKE EACH OTHER. So this game has real juice up and down the I-95 corridor. Brian Daboll and Nick Sirianni are both in the running for Coach of the Year (Daboll is my pick, but I don’t have a vote).  

When NYG has the ball: New York’s offense fired on all cylinders last week, and Daniel Jones had the game of his career in leading his team to victory. That was indoors, against the NFL’s 31st ranked defense, and things get much tougher at Philadelphia this week against the NFL’s 2nd ranked defense. The Eagles made life miserable for opposing QBs all year. They led the NFL with 70 sacks, 15 more than any other team, and had 4 players register at least 10 sacks, an NFL record. The Giants will need to have success on early downs to stay out of obvious passing situations. The Eagles’ defense isn’t as stout against the run and I expect another heavy workload for Saquon Barkley, and for Jones to continue to make plays with his legs. The Eagles struggled against some of the more mobile QBs they faced. I also expect creative play calling from a coaching staff that continues to get the most out of an offense that’s short on playmakers. Midseason pickup Isaiah Hodgins has a TD in 5 of his last 6 games, went over 100 yards for the first time last week, and has become a very reliable target for Jones. 

When PHI has the ball: When these teams met in Week 14, the Giants had no answer for Philadelphia's high-octane attack. The Eagles scored TDs on their first 3 possessions, which included 2 drives that were longer than 80 yards, and the rout was on after that. Philadelphia’s offense can beat you in a number of ways. They can run it down your throat (which they did vs. the Giants in Week 14, to the tune of 253 rushing yards and 4 TDs), their excellent group of WRs and TEs can make explosive plays, and Hurts is a dangerous dual threat who can make big plays with his arm and legs. Devonta Smith really came on down the stretch and he and A.J. Brown are a lot to deal with. The extra week off was important for Hurts, who missed a few games late in the season with an injury to his throwing shoulder. He still might be less than 100% healthy though. The Giants’ defense has some playmakers on the D line, and getting Adoree Jackson and Xavier McKinney back in the secondary is a big help, but you need athletic, playmaking linebackers to slow down this offense and that’s not New York’s strong suit.

The Pick: It’s been an outstanding season for Big Blue. Daboll has turned the franchise around and Jones has proven he’s a legitimate starter. It’s hard to beat a team 3 times in one season, division games in the playoffs are often close as we saw last week, and the Giants are definitely a live underdog. Unfortunately, the ride is likely going to end this week. The Philadelphia offense is a bad matchup for the Giants’ defense, and they won’t be able to get enough stops to enable them to keep up. Eagles 31 - Giants 20. 

Which QB is Going to the Conference Final?

#3 CIN (13-4) @ #2 BUF (14-3) (Sun., 3:00 PM, CBS, BUF -5, O/U 48.5) 

Prior Matchup: Week 17, game canceled

Storylines: This is a battle of AFC heavyweights who only have 7 losses combined this season. Neither team has lost a game in the last 2 months. Current win streaks: Cincinnati: 9, Buffalo: 8. One of the biggest stories this season was what transpired when these teams played on Monday night in Week 17, both on the field, and then the aftermath including the decision to cancel the game and adjust certain playoff scenarios.They’re meeting again just 3 weeks later, this time in Buffalo. Obviously, the Damar Hamlin injury and how it impacted both teams and their players is a big topic of discussion. The Bills went to the AFC Championship 2 years ago, losing to the Chiefs, while the Bengals got there last year and beat the Chiefs, before losing in the Super Bowl. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow have emerged as 2 of the top QBs in the game. Canceled game aside, this will be the first time these QBs have ever faced each other. 

When CIN has the ball: The Bengals are a handful for any defense. When Burrow has time to throw and gets on a roll he is as lethal as any QB. He’s got perhaps the best trio of WRs in the league at his disposal, plus a very capable pair of RBs. The concern this week - and it’s significant - is the offensive line, which was not especially strong to begin with and might be down 3 starters, including LT Jonah Williams. The Bills’ defense ended the season as the league’s 6th ranked unit, but hasn’t been the same since Von Miller went down for the season and a very good offense like Cincinnati’s can move the ball on it. In their 2 drives in the canceled game, the Bengals were sharp. The Bills can get after the passer with their front 7 and if the Bengals can’t adequately protect Burrow, he could be in for a long day and could be forced into some dangerous throws against a very opportunistic secondary. 

When BUF has the ball: Josh Allen was far from his best against Miami. He kept going for big throws that didn’t hit, and he turned the ball over 3 times including a fumble-6, keeping an overmatched Miami team in the game. Allen now leads the NFL in giveaways and he can’t be sloppy or careless against a team as good as Cincinnati. The Bills would be wise to stick with what works best for them - mixing in runs with short and intermediate passes plus the occasional deep shot, leaning on Diggs, and having Allen use his legs to punish the defense and move the chains. TE Dawson Knox is hot - he’s scored a TD in 5 straight. The Bengals’ defense is solid, but will have its hands full with the Bills’ diverse and talented offense.

The Pick: I’m tempted to pick the upset here. I trust Burrow more than Allen right now, and the Bills’ defense hasn’t been as dominant the last 2 months. The Bills were my preseason pick to win it all and I have my doubts. Meanwhile, the Bengals keep finding ways to win playoff games, and they’re unlikely to beat themselves. I’m going against my gut here as I think the offensive line injuries are going to be too much for Cincinnati to overcome. Bills 27, Bengals 24.

Warner and Bosa Set the Tone for the NFL’s Top Defense

#5 DAL (13-5) @ #2 SF (14-4) (Sun., 6:00 PM, FOX, SF -3.5, O/U 46) 

Prior Matchup: None this season

Storylines: The weekend ends with a marquee matchup of 2 of the NFL’s premier franchises. The Cowboys (8) and 49ers (7) have been to the most Super Bowls among NFC teams. This game has the tightest line of the week and also the lowest total. The teams didn’t play this year, but they met in the Wild Card round a year ago, where the 49ers walked out of Dallas with a 23-17 road win that started their run to the NFC Title game. The Cowboys haven’t been to an NFC Title game since 1995, while the 49ers competed in 2 of the last 3. This will be the 9th playoff meeting between these 2 teams, with Dallas holding a 5-3 edge. Their playoff history includes meeting in 3 straight NFC Championship games from 1992-94, with Dallas winning 2 of those 3. The 49ers are riding an NFL-best 11 game win streak. Third string QB Brock Purdy started the last 6 of those games, and has thrown 14 TDs in those 6 starts against just 2 INTs, plus he’s run for 2 more scores. Both coaches have a winning record in the playoffs (Mike McCarthy 11-9, Kyle Shanahan 5-2). 

When DAL has the ball: Dak is coming off a stellar game on Monday night and he’ll need a repeat performance this week, against the league’s #1 ranked defense. The 49ers are +11 in turnovers over their last 6 games, and before last week Dak had thrown 11 INTs over his last 7 games. Those are troubling trends and Dak must avoid costly mistakes in order for the Cowboys to stay close. The 49ers’ one weakness on D has been the deep ball, which the Seahawks exploited in the first half last week. Dallas doesn’t have a true burner, but look for Prescott to push the ball downfield to his WRs when he can. Dalton Schultz has been an excellent weapon, and I also expect the Cowboys to use their RBs more in the passing game, as rushing yards will be hard to come by against the league’s top run defense. A question mark for Dallas this week is PK Brett Maher, who led the NFL in scoring but missed an NFL record 5 straight PATs from Week 18 to the 4th quarter of the Wild Card game. The yips are no bueno and especially in the playoffs. If the game comes down to a Maher kick, we’ll get one long shot of Jerry Jones loosening his tie and gritting his teeth in the owner’s box. 

When SF has the ball: It’s been all systems go for Brock Purdy and the NFL’s best collection of skill position players. Purdy put up another impressive stat line on Saturday while accounting for 4 total TDs - he’s the first rookie QB to have 4 total TDs in a playoff game. He’s running the Shanahan scheme very well, and letting his gifted playmakers do the rest. Deebo and CMC both broke off plays of 60+ yards last week, and they’re not the only ones a defense needs to worry about. The 49ers racked up over 500 yards of offense on Saturday. Dallas brings a much tougher defense to town, and one that can get after the QB, so it won’t be as easy for Purdy this week. Safety Jayron Kearse left the Wild Card game late with a knee injury, adding his name to the growing list of injured Cowboys’ DBs. The secondary could be a big problem for Dallas as they try to contend with the 49ers’ passing game weapons. Robbie Gould made all 8 of his kicks on Saturday (4 FGs, 4 PATs) and remains perfect in the postseason: 25-25 FGs and 38-38 PATs, an astounding record. 

The Pick: I’m always leery of the team that looked too good on Wild Card Weekend, and this year, that team is Dallas. They faced an inferior opponent. Still, the Cowboys are 13-5 and they’re good on both sides of the ball which makes them the kind of team that can stay with the 49ers. Their defense will be Brock Purdy’s toughest test to date. The theory in backing Dallas is that they’ll overwhelm the rookie with relentless pressure and tight coverages, and expose him. Maybe, but I’m not expecting that. I’m worried about the Cowboys’ banged up secondary holding up. This should be a great game, and I’m sticking with the home team to extend its winning streak. 49ers 26 - Dallas 23.

I didn’t want to end up here but I picked the 4 favorites (the home teams). We’ll see if anyone can pull off an upset. 

Stat of the Week: From 2003 to 2021, teams that scored 30+ points and won the turnover battle were 60-2 in the playoffs. This postseason, they’re 1-2 (so far). 

That’s a wrap - enjoy the games and come back next week for the Conference Championships preview.

DH


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