Pigskin Papers Take 2: 2022-23 Week 17
Never Count This Guy Out…
(Published January 3, 2023)
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Happy New Year, and welcome to another edition of “Take Two.”
Before we get to the week that was in the NFL, I want to say a few words about what transpired on Monday night. Like many of you, I was watching the Monday Night Football game and was scared, shaken, worried, and saddened by the very serious medical situation that unfolded on the field. It was a deeply sobering moment and a reminder that as much as we might care about the teams and players we root for, and no matter how much passion we as fans bring to the NFL experience, the games aren’t what’s important in the grand scheme of things. I don’t have anything particularly poignant or meaningful to say. Football is and always has been a violent and dangerous game played by elite athletes, and we owe a huge debt to the young men who risk both their short and long-term health and safety to entertain us by playing it. We are all wishing the best for Damar Hamlin’s recovery, and hoping for comfort and solace for his family and teammates.
*****
The penultimate weekend of NFL football was underwhelming. For the first time in a long time, the NFL treated us to a bunch of blowouts instead of the buffet of very close games we’ve grown accustomed to. Thankfully, the 2 CFB playoff games played on Saturday were thrillers, with one comeback that failed and another that succeeded. Both games went down to the final play, with more than 80 points already on the scoreboard. So Saturday’s biggest college games more than made up for the lack of drama that would follow with the NFL games on Sunday.
Just to give some color on how different this week was, consider that of the 15 games completed so far in Week 17, only 5 were one-score games. Compare that to Week 16, which had 9 one-score games, or Week 16, which had 12 one-score games including 3 that went to OT. Eight of the 15 completed games in Week 17 were decided by 14 or more points.
With just one week of the regular season remaining, the playoff picture is mostly in focus, but 3 playoff spots are still up for grabs: The AFC South champion, and the final Wild Card in each Conference. On top of that, 2 other divisions are still not decided and there is jockeying for playoff seeding. There should be plenty of intrigue this week, as you’d expect for a Week 18. For those new to the column, here’s the format: Take One will be a series of takeaways and observations from Week 17, and Take Two will be another edition of Fun Facts and Stats of the Week.
Or This Guy…
TAKE ONE - Week 17 Takeaways
The lesson: Don’t ever count out Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, or Aaron Rodgers. It’s been a bumpy ride for all 3 this season, but there’s a decent chance all 3 end up in the playoffs. And while we’re here, don’t ever count out Mike Tomlin, either.
Speaking of which…let’s discuss 2 teams that made the playoffs in 2021, were written off a month ago, and are now very much alive for a playoff berth. Two of the biggest-name franchises in the league are on this short list. I’ll start with the Steelers. On December 11, the Steelers lost a close one at home to the Ravens (final score, 16-14), and fell to 5-8. Not only did it look like their season was over, but it also appeared that Tomlin’s incredible string of consecutive seasons without ever having a losing record was going to come to an end. It still might, but 3 gutsy wins later (capped off by a 16-13 win in the road rematch with the Ravens on Sunday night) and the Steelers stand at 8-8. Importantly, it looks like maybe they’ve found their successor to Big Ben. For the second straight week, Kenny Pickett led a game winning TD drive in the final 2 minutes, after the defense kept the game close for 58 minutes. The Steelers need to beat the Browns to get in, but they also need help. The Pats (@BUF) and Dolphins (vs. Jets) both need to lose. But hey, the Steelers needed a more improbable chain of events in Week 18 last year and they got in - it could be deja vu all over again.
As for the other team on the short list, how ‘bout them Green Bay Packers? It looked like the season might have turned when they came back to beat the Cowboys in an OT thriller in Week 10, but 2 losses followed, which put them in dire straits at 4-8. Four wins later, and not only are they 8-8, but they control their own destiny. A win at home next week against the 8-8 Lions, and they’re in as the 7 seed. If that happens, this is as dangerous of a 7 seed as you’re going to see. Remember, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a Super Bowl in 2010-11 as a Wild Card entry (and the lowest seeded team) that won 3 straight on the road to get to the big game, which they then won.
It goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway) that the Packers and Steelers have had help in getting to this position. Yes, they’ve done what they needed to do to get back into the playoff hunt after bad starts, but they’ve been helped by teams that were in front of them either coming back to the pack or falling out of it entirely. I see you, Dolphins, Jets, Seahawks, and Commanders (and others).
OK, on to other stories. Let’s raise a glass for Brian Daboll, Danny Dimes, and the New York Football Giants. In the 5 seasons before this one, the Giants had an abysmal, NFL-worst record of 22-59. OK, to be fair that was tied for the worst record over that stretch, alongside the team that shares their stadium. The Giants blasted the lifeless Colts on Sunday to run their record to 9-6-1 and clinch an NFC Wild Card spot. Brian Daboll is in the running for Coach of the Year, Danny Dimes has proven that he is a legit starting NFL QB (and has earned quite a few dimes in the process), and Kayvon Thibodeaux has arrived as a game-wrecker (but maybe don’t do snow angels next to the writhing body of the guy you just flattened). The Giants continue to do more with less and are scrappy, resourceful, and well coached. They won’t be an easy out in Round 1.
The last AFC Wild Card spot is going to go to one of these 4 teams: The Patriots (if they can win at Buffalo, or if they lose and a bunch of other things happen), the Dolphins (if they can beat the Jets at home while the Patriots lose), the Steelers as discussed above, or the Jaguars, if they lose to the Titans and everyone else loses. These are all flawed teams that will be big underdogs on the road in Round 1. Miami is reeling and is in especially bad shape as they might have to start third stringer Skylar Thompson against NYJ third stringer Mike White. Have you ever seen this many no-name QBs starting games in one season? Neither have I, and I’ll discuss that a little later. Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see which, if any, of these teams can get a win when they need one.
In a rare bit of NFL weirdness, the Jaguars and Titans, who came into Week 17 tied atop the AFC South at 7-8, had nothing to play for in Week 17, with the division coming down to their Week 18 matchup regardless of Week 17 results. Really? Really. This is another case where it’ll be interesting to see which team(s) show up for one must-win game. The Titans are another team facing a must-win game with a relatively unknown third string QB.
Seattle kept its playoff hopes alive this week with an impressive and dominant win over the Jets. To get in, the Seahawks need a win vs. the Rams plus a Packers loss at home to the Lions. The odds aren’t great, and the NFL schedulers did them no favors by flexing the DET-GB game to Sunday night. A Seattle win in the afternoon would eliminate the Lions before they play the Packers. But even if the Seahawks don’t get in, this has been an excellent season for a team that many expected to be one of the very worst in the league. A bunch of young players exceeded expectations, and Geno was more than competent and might be a capable bridge to the next QB. Throw in that in April they’ll have in their pocket a very high first round pick from Denver, and it’s a win-win all around.
Almost everything I just said about the Seahawks can also be said about the Lions, with the name Goff substituted for Geno, and the Rams substituted for the Broncos. They also need to win and get help to get in. 2022 was a step in the right direction for both teams.
For the second time in 3 weeks, the lowly Broncos gave the mighty Chiefs a very hard time. The Chiefs remind me of a cat that catches a mouse and then plays with it for a while before finally putting it out of its misery.
2022 has been a very unusual season at the QB position, and one that has highlighted how important it is not only to have a high quality starter, but also a capable backup. Only 11 of 32 teams have started the same QB for all 16 games this year. Those QBs: J. Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Mahomes, Herbert, D. Jones, Rodgers, Cousins, Goff, Brady and G. Smith. On the flip side, due to a combination of injuries and benchings, 8 teams have started at least 3 different QBs this season: The Jets, Dolphins, Titans, Colts, 49ers, Rams, Cardinals, and Panthers. More QBs have started games in 2022 than in any season in the league’s history. A number of QBs will be free agents this offseason, and 1 or 2 more will likely be moved via trade. On top of that, the 2023 Draft Class has a number of very high-end QB prospects. I’ll tackle this in the off-season, but the QB carousel might be almost as interesting in 2023 as it was in 2022. For now, the takeaway is to look at that list of 11 QBs that have played every game this year. Seven are already headed to the playoffs and the other 4 all have a chance to get there. That speaks volumes. And if you look at the other list, only one of those 8 teams is definitely headed to the playoffs.
Or This Guy…
TAKE TWO - Stats and Facts of the Week
No team in the AFC South or NFC South is over .500, with one week to play.
The 12-4 Vikings have been outscored by their opponents by 19 points. In their 4 losses, the Vikings have been outscored by 89 points.
The NFL has now gone 33 straight seasons with at least 4 new teams making the playoffs vs. the prior season (this year, so far: Vikings, Ravens, Chargers, Giants).
Brock Purdy has won each of his first 4 career starts. He’s only the 4th rookie QB to have done that since QB stats were first tracked (1950). The others are Big Ben (2004), Phil Simms (1979), and Mike Kruczek (1976).
The Giants scored 38 points on Sunday, marking the first time they scored 30+ points in their last 44 games.
The Dolphins just followed up a 5 game winning streak with a 5 game losing streak.
The Jets have the longest current playoff drought (2010), and it will continue for at least one more season.
The Titans have lost 6 in a row, and can still win their division with a win at Jacksonville on Sunday.
The Bears have lost 9 straight games, which is the longest in-season losing streak in franchise history, a history that dates back more than a century (1920).
On Sunday, Justin Fields had 105 rushing yards in the first quarter. He finished the game with 132. Fields needs 64 rushing yards in Week 18 to eclipse Lamar Jackson’s record for QB rushing yards in a season (1,206 yards, set in the 2019 season (16 game season)).
The Eagles have 6+ sacks in 5 straight games, the longest streak since sacks became an official stat in 1982.
The Eagles have 4 players with 10+ sacks, and they’re the first team to accomplish that since at least 1982.
Only 2 Tight Ends in the history of the NFL have had 60+ catches in each of their first 2 seasons: Pat Freiermuth and Keith Jackson.
Jerrick McKinnon has at least one receiving TD in 5 straight games. He’s the first running back in NFL history to do that.
McKinnon has scored multiple TDs in 3 of his last 4 games.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Austin Ekeler has scored 38 total TDs, by far the most in the league.
Ekeler joins Marshall Faulk (2000-2001) as the only players with back-to-back seasons with 10+ rushing TDs and 5+ receiving TDs.
Ezekiel Elliott has scored at least one rushing TD in 9 straight games played.
The Ravens have played 5 straight games without scoring more than 17 points or allowing more than 16 points. They’re 3-2 in those games.
The 6-10 Raiders have lost 9 one-score games this season, the most in the league.
The Raiders have played 4 OT games this season, the most in the league. It’s the second straight season where they’ve gone to OT 4 times.
Only 2 QBs have thrown 3 TD passes against the 49ers’ top-ranked defense this season: Patrick Mahomes and Jarret Stidham.
The Matt LaFleur-Aaron Rodgers combo is now 18-1 in December and January regular season games, the best mark for those 2 months in NFL history for a QB-Coach combo (minimum 15 games).
With the Commanders loss on Sunday to the Browns, teams are now 0-14 this season the week after facing the 49ers. Coincidence? Doubtful.
Christian McCaffrey is the 3rd player with at least 3 seasons with 1,000 rushing yards and 75 catches (LeVeon Bell did that 3 times, and Marshall Faulk 4 times).
The Titans have used 84 players so far this year, the most in the NFL. Last year, they used 91 players, an NFL record.
The Giants have at least one rushing TD in 14 straight games (the longest current streak in the NFL).
The Packers held Justin Jefferson without a catch in the first half on Sunday. The only other time that Jefferson was shut out in the first half of a game was his very first NFL game in 2020, also vs. the Packers. For the game, Jefferson was held to 1 catch for 15 yards. He needs 229 receiving yards on Sunday (vs. CHI) to become the first player to reach 2,000 receiving yards in a season.
The last time Jefferson was held to one catch in a game was in 2018, when he was at LSU.
Patrick Mahomes is the 3rd player in NFL history with multiple seasons with 5,000 passing yards. He joins Tom Brady and Drew Brees in that club. Mahomes is 27.
Mahomes now has 27 TD passes this season to RBs and TEs. That’s the second most all-time (Y.A. Tittle had 28 in 1963, a 14 game season).
Mahomes is 11-0 as a starter against Denver. In the Super Bowl era, only he and Andrew Luck (11-0 vs. Titans) have 11 or more wins and no losses as a starting QB vs. any one team.
Tom Brady is going to the playoffs for the 14th straight season (and the 19th straight when healthy). Brady is also the starting QB on a division-winning team for the 19th time.
Before Sunday, Brady only had 1 TD pass of longer than 20 yards on the season. He had 3 on Sunday, all to Mike Evans.
Davante Adams just had his 15th career game with 100+ receiving yards and 2+ receiving TDs. The only players in the Super Bowl era with more than 15 such games are an elite, Hall of Fame group: Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison.
Speaking of WRs, Mike Evans extended his NFL-record streak to 9 straight 1,000 yard seasons to start a career.
Evans’s 9-year streak of 1,000 yard seasons ties Tim Brown for the second longest all-time, behind Jerry Rice (11).
Dak Prescott has thrown 10 INTs in his last 6 games. Prescott is tied with Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr for the NFL lead in INTs (14), despite playing in only 11 games.
The Patriots have scored 7 defensive TDs this season, including 3 by safety Kyle Duggar. They’ve also scored a defensive TD in 4 straight games. The last team to do that was the Buccaneers in 2002.
All 4 teams in the CFB semi-finals scored at least 40 points. Just checking to see if you’re still reading.
And…CUT
***This column (Take 2) and the Weekly Waiver Wire column appear each Monday and Tuesday, and the Weekly Fantasy Preview each Thursday. Please bookmark the site and come back often. You can also follow on Social Media - on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). I appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
And Definitely Not This Guy
