Fantasy Football ‘23: RB Tiers and Rankings
CMC Returns to the Top Spot
(Published July 31, 2023, Updated August 21, 2023)
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August is here, so it’s time to get serious about your upcoming fantasy drafts. This is the last piece in the Pigskin Papers’ redraft rankings series, and today I’ll tackle the running back position, which has been all over NFL newsfeeds lately because of how it‘s being devalued. Saquon Barkley’s thrifty one-year extension, Josh Jacobs not getting a new deal, Jonathan Taylor requesting a trade, and Dalvin Cook and other prominent free agents very slowly finding jobs are the latest pieces of evidence. And this is one of those cases where fantasy mimics reality, because the position is being devalued in fantasy as well.
Not so long ago, the first round of fantasy drafts often consisted of at least 10 RBs. But times have changed. Not only do NFL teams throw more and run less, but the vast majority no longer rely on one bell-cow, feature back. RB rotations have mostly become the norm. Also, more QBs are piling up rushing yards and vulturing goal line chances, which comes right out of the lunch of RB production. An astounding 18% of goal-line carries last season were taken by QBs. RBs get hurt more than players at other fantasy positions, which makes them riskier picks than their WR counterparts. Throw that all in one stewpot, and it’s gotten harder to find stud RBs that deserve to go ahead of the top WRs in Round 1 of fantasy drafts (more on this below). But it’s not all bad news—it’s actually gotten easier to find serviceable RBs in the early and middle rounds that you can slot in as RB2s and flexes. While I’m not an advocate of a “zero RB” strategy, I can certainly understand it.
For those who missed it, here’s an article that makes the case for taking the very top WRs ahead of the top RBs this season - a strategy shift from the conventional thinking that has dominated fantasy drafts for decades: fantasy-football-23-the-kickoff.
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Here are the links to the other Pigskin Papers tiers and rankings including the Overall top 100: Overall-top-100 QB-tiers-and-rankings; WR-tiers-and-rankings TE-tiers-and-rankings. All rankings are being updated this week.
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The RBs are organized into tiers, and I do this at every position. You should do the same. I’ve written about this before and to save space I won’t repeat it all here - here is a link to a discussion on the importance of using tiers for your draft board: 5-powerful-drafting-concepts.
Notes: these rankings are for redraft leagues only, and all position rankings and point totals noted in this article are for Half PPR. Also, I’ve ranked the free agents but that’s a difficult exercise without knowing their landing spots. Obviously, where they sign will impact not only their values, but the values of other RBs.
Austin Ekeler Hits Paydirt Again
Tier I - The Feature Back Studs
1. C. McCaffrey
2. A. Ekeler
3. N. Chubb
4. S. Barkley
5. D. Henry
6. B. Robinson (R)
Commentary: While true workhorses are harder and harder to find these days, all 6 of these guys have a clear path to at least 300 touches if they stay healthy. Last year, 8 RBs crested the 300 touch mark, and 5 of them are listed above. These backs also have the skills to do a lot with those touches. In case you’re wondering why Josh Jacobs (the RB3 last season, and #1 in total touches with 393) isn’t in this group, it’s a combination of his contract situation coupled with the fact that last season was his only top 7 finish thus far in 4 years, and I’m a little leery of chasing seasonal performance that might be an outlier. Robinson is a rookie but he’s here because he’s supremely talented and is going to a team that runs the ball into the ground. I’m all-in on Nick Chubb this year—he’s the best pure runner in the NFL, runs behind a top-3 OL, and should finally see decent usage in the passing game with Kareem Hunt gone. I also think Derrick Henry has at least one more big year in him, and with Hopkins, Burks, and Chig lining up, defenses won’t be able to just stack the box on every play.
Pollard’s Big Moment is Finally Here
Tier II - More RB1s
7. T. Pollard
8. J. Taylor [8-29 UPDATE: HAS BEEN LOWERED TO TIER III]***
9. J. Jacobs
10. R. Stevenson
11. J. Mixon
12. J. Gibbs (R)
13. A. Jones
14. N. Harris
Commentary: If I miss out on Tier I, I have no problem with any of these guys as my RB1. Everyone in this group has a realistic shot at a top 10 finish, and top 5 isn’t out of the question. To varying degrees, all of these guys should see good (and in some cases, great) passing game utilization which is a huge plus. Taylor and Jacobs find themselves in this Tier in part because of their uncertain contract status and relationship with their teams. I’m leery of both in Round 2, but for some, the dip in ECR represents a buying opportunity. [UPDATE 8/29- Taylor is starting the season on PUP - I've dropped him down into the bottom of Tier III]
Can Cam Akers Pick Up Where He Left Off?
Tier III - High-End RB2s
15. T. Etienne
16. K. Walker
17. M. Sanders
18. B. Hall
19. C. Akers
20. R. White
21. D. Pierce
22. A. Mattison
23. J.K. Dobbins
24. J. Conner
25. J. Cook
26. Jav. Williams
Commentary: This group feels a little boom or bust. All of the guys in this tier have upside to being RB1s this season, but most come with some questions. Akers was outstanding down the stretch last season - but earlier in the year it felt like the Rams were going to cut him. Walker flashed as a rookie, but the team drafted another RB in the second round a year later. Can Mattison and White hold up as feature backs? Is Dobbins all the way back, and how many touches will he get? How will the backfield break down between Hall and D. Cook? Are the Cardinals going to be so bad that you don’t even want their lead back? Sanders is one of several prominent RBs who switched teams this offseason.
Penny Gets a Fresh Start in Philly
Tier IV - Lower RB2s and Flex Plays
27 D. Montgomery
28. K. Herbert
29. I. Pacheco
30. D. Cook
31. A. Kamara (susp 3 games)
32. R. Penny
33. D. Swift
34. A. Gibson
35. S. Perine
36. A.J. Dillon
37. Bri. Robinson
Commentary: As I said at the top, in today’s NFL there are a lot more fantasy-viable RBs who you can get in the middle rounds. This tier oozes those guys and for those taking a zero RB approach, trying to load up on guys from this tier will be the target. There is plenty of value here, and while most of these guys won’t deliver high-end production on a consistent basis, they’ve all got a path to meaningful touches. On top of that, most of them are on good (or better) offenses. As far as values go, I’m particularly high on Penny, Perine, Herbert, and Gibson. Getting them in the 8th or 9th round seems like stealing.
Achane Makes the Dolphins Even Faster
Tier V - RB Depth Plays
38. Z. Charbonnet (R)
39. J. McKinnon
40. D. Achane
41. R. Mostert
42. T. Bigsby (R)
43. E. Mitchell
44. Ez. Elliott
45. Jam. Williams
46. D. Harris
47. T. Allgeier
48. J. Warren
49. K. Miller (R)
50. D. Foreman
51. R. Johnson (R)
52. J. Wilson
Commentary: This tier features a number of intriguing runners, including some talented rookies who at a minimum should see some rotational work and at a maximum could have a path to a significant role. Not only that, but some of these players are one injury or bad fumbling problem away from being starters. You want at least one of these guys on your bench, if not in your flex spot. Of the players in this tier, I’m partial to Bigsby, Charbonnet, Harris, McKinnon, Mostert, and Achane.
Tier VI - Deeper Depth and Handcuffs
52. G. Edwards
53. C. Hubbard
54. J. Ford
55. Z. White
56. K. Gainwell
57. T. Spears (R)
58. L. Fournette (FA)
59. K. Hunt (FA)
60. Ma. Davis
61. M. Carter
62. C. Patterson
63. Z. Evans
64. C. Brown
65. C.E. Helaire
66. D. Vaughn
67. C. Edmonds
68. J. Kelley
69. T. Chandler
70. D. McBride (R)
71. P. Strong
72. Kyren Williams
73. I. Spiller
74. Z. Moss
75. Ibanakanda
76. E. Gray
77. M. Breida
78. C. Evans
Commentary: You really can’t have enough RB depth in fantasy. RBs get hurt and miss time. They sometimes lose work for other reasons, like chronic fumbling or ineffectiveness. Every season, we see fantasy-viable RBs emerge who were either drafted late or went undrafted. Waiver wire frenzies for “hot” RBs are a common occurrence in fantasy. Sometimes that frenzy doesn't happen, because the RB who is about to step into a much larger role is already rostered, and I like being the guy with that “breakout” RB already my roster. A handful of players in this tier are going to fit that description at some point this coming season. It’s a guessing game to know which ones, but you can increase your chances of being in the right place at the right time by using some late-round picks on these guys. When real need hits during the season, you can always find decent options on the waiver wire at the other positions. At RB, it can be very dicey. I also believe in handcuffing my top RBs in most situations, and a lot of the viable handcuffs are in this tier. Bottom line - at similar ADP, I’ll gladly take someone like Tyjae Spears over K.J. Osborn, or Michael Carter over Chase Claypool. The floor might be lower, but the upside is much higher.
This wraps up my positional breakdown series. Stay tuned and check back often for more pre-draft content!
DH
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