Fantasy Football ‘23: WR Tiers and Rankings

JJeff at #1 Overall? You’ll Get No Argument From Me.

(Published July 26, 2023)

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Welcome back, readers! I’m banging out my updated rankings, and today is a fun one - WRs!

The WR position in fantasy football continues to be dynamite at the top, and pretty deep with quality options. The NFL game keeps evolving towards more and more passing, and plenty of teams have 2 or in some cases 3 WRs that can be at least flex-worthy on a week-to-week basis. So bear with me, as we’ve got a lot of names to get to. For those who missed it, here is an article that makes the case for taking the very top WRs ahead of the top RBs - a strategy shift from the conventional thinking that has dominated fantasy drafts for decades: fantasy-football-23-the-kickoff.

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Here are the links to the other Pigskin Papers tiers and rankings, including the Top 100 overall: Overall-top-100 : QB-tiers-and-rankings ; RB-tiers-and-rankings TE-tiers-and-rankings. All rankings are being updated this week.

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The WRs are organized into tiers, and I do this at every position. You should do the same. I’ve written about this before and to save space I won’t repeat it all here - here is a link to a discussion on the importance of using tiers for your draft board: 5-powerful-drafting-concepts.

Notes: these rankings are for redraft leagues only, and all position rankings and point totals noted in this article are in Half PPR.

Chasing Chase - It’s No Fun

Pigskin Papers WR Rankings, 2023

Tier I - The Elites

1. J. Jefferson

2. J. Chase

3. T. Hill

4. S. Diggs

5. C. Kupp

6. C. Lamb

7. A.J. Brown

8. D. Adams

Commentary: You could arguably divide this into 2 tiers, with Tyreek Hill being the last player in the top group, but all 8 of these guys are stud WR1s with a very high floor and also a high ceiling. Jefferson has more catches and yards through 3 seasons than any player in NFL history, and led all WRs last year in targets, catches, yards, YAC, and most importantly fantasy points. He’s the consensus WR1, and there’s a very good argument for him being the #1 overall pick in non-Superflex leagues. Here’s a scary thought - the #1 and #2 WRs on the list played together at LSU. Kupp and his QB are both coming back from serious injuries, so there’s a bit of risk there, but believe it or not, he was averaging more PPG than Jefferson when he got hurt. Adams is the one player in this group who might give fantasy players pause, as he’s once again going to be playing with a new QB who is a downgrade from his prior QB, plus he’s the oldest player in the tier (he’ll be 31 in January). But those who picked Adams last year got a nice discount, as he didn't drop off at all after leaving Aaron Rodgers. He might just be QB-proof, and age-proof too, at least for now.

Miami’s Dangerous Duo - Both Are Top 10 Options

Tier II - Low-End WR1s

9. A. St. Brown

10. J. Waddle

11. C. Olave

12. G. WIlson

13. D. Smith

14. A. Cooper

15. T. Higgins

16. K. Allen

17. D.K. Metcalf

Commentary: All of the players in this tier have a realistic shot of finishing in the top 10 at the position (if not higher), and all are very solid with high floors. After ARSB, who in my view is the clear top player in this tier, not that much separates the rest of the group. For that reason, I think Wilson is looking a bit pricey and I’d rather wait a round and get better value with one of the other options here. It’s also a very young group, outside of Allen and Cooper, meaning most of these guys are still ascending. Metcalf led the NFL in red zone targets last year, and some positive TD regression could lead to a monster season for him in his 5th year. Olave put up numbers that you rarely see from a rookie and is another one who could vault into the elite tier if he can add to his TD total.

Kirk Looks to Build on His Big Year

Tier III - WR 2s

18. D. Hopkins

19. C. Ridley

20. D. Samuel

21. C. Kirk

22. T. Lockett

23. D.J. Moore

24. T. McLaurin

25. C. Watson

26. D. Johnson

27. J. Jeudy

28. B. Aiyuk

29. C. Godwin

30. D. London

31. M. WIlliams

32. M. Brown

33. M. Evans

Commentary: This group is a bit of a mixed bag, but one theme that runs through it is talented guys who could be very productive (and some of them have been, for multiple years) but aren’t in great situations, either because of the QB, the offense they’re in, or both. Think Godwin and Evans, London, Moore, C. Watson, McLaurin, and D. Johnson. Others in this group have different question marks. What should we expect from Ridley, who hasn’t played in an NFL game in almost 2 years? Who will be throwing to Hollywood Brown? Is Jeudy ever going to live up to his promise? Is Hopkins still a dominant force? There will be some excellent value to be found in this group, coupled with some big under-performers. I’m a believer in Kirk and have him ranked higher than most. I’d rather have him than Ridley, since I can get him almost 2 full rounds later. I also have Hopkins 6 or 7 spots higher than consensus. Don’t sleep on Tennessee’s offense rebounding this year.

Dotson Finds Paydirt Again

Tier IV - WR3s with some upside

34. M. Pittman

35. G. Davis

36. J. Dotson

37. T. Burks

38. J. Addison (R)

39. J. Smith-Njigba (R)

40. G. Pickens

41. M. Thomas

42. B. Cooks

43. K. Toney

44. J. Smith-Schuster

45. E. Moore

46. R. Bateman

47. Q. Johnston (R)

48. J. Meyers

Commentary: A lot of these guys should make for serviceable WR3s or flex plays, but expect some inconsistency and especially from the 3 rookies. I don’t see any of the rookies doing what Olave, Wilson, Watson, and Dotson (when healthy) did last season. There’s definitely some upside here, and especially with guys like Davis, and Addison who could have big roles in high volume passing offenses. Toney might be the hardest WR to handicap this year and it’s concerning that he already had to have a cleanup procedure on his knee. He could end up with 14 TDs, or play 14 snaps on the entire season. That’s his realistic range of outcomes. The same can be said of Michael Thomas. Davis is a classic post-hype sleeper, and a good value at his current ADP. Dotson really impressed as a rookie and is in my view the class of this tier, but a lot depends on the QB play.

Tier V - WR Depth, Level I

49. C. Sutton

50. Z. Flowers (R)

51. A. Lazard

52. O. Beckham

53. N. Collins

54. S. Moore

55. D. Mooney

56. M. Gallup

57. Z. Jones

58. T. Boyd

59. J. Williams (susp. 6 games)

Tier VI - WR Depth Level II

60. A. Thielen

61. D.J. Chark

62. I. Hodgins

63. D. Peoples-Jones

64. R. Doubs

65. C. Samuel

66. W. Robinson

67. D. Slayton

68. K.J. Osborn

69. A. Robinson

70. R. Rice (R)

71. V. Jefferson

72. M. Valdez-Scantling

73. D. Parker

74. R. Shaheed

75. A. Pierce

76. P. Campbell

77. J. Ross

78. H. Renfrow

79. J. Mingo

80. M. Mims (R)

81. J. Palmer

82. J. Hiatt (R)

83. J. Metchie

84. J. Reynolds

Commentary: I’ll stop at 84 (7 WRs per team in a 12-team league), but there are another dozen or so WRs who will get taken in lots of drafts. A few guys in these 2 tiers will pop - they always do. There are a lot of late fliers you can take at WR, and it’s also an easy position for finding help on the waiver wire because it’s so deep. A few players that I like in these 2 tiers are Lazard, S. Moore, Gallup, and Doubs, all of whom have a path to decent volume. For deeper sleepers, Reynolds, Ross, and Mims are interesting.

That’s a wrap on the WRs. Be sure to check out my other rankings, strategy articles, and other fantasy draft prep throughout the preseason.

DH

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