Fantasy Football ‘23: Pigskin Papers Draft Tips
The Reigning MVP is Getting Ready for the Season - Are You?
(Published August 3, 2023 - Note, an earlier version of this article appeared in August, 2022)
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August is here, and that means fantasy drafts will be happening before you know it. For many fantasy football players in redraft leagues, serious draft prep starts now. The Pigskin Papers is here to help. Check out our positional breakdowns with rankings and tiers (all will be updated later in the preseason): QB: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-23-qb-tiers-and-rankings; RB: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-23-rb-tiers-and-rankings; WR: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-23-wr-tiers-and-rankings TE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-23-te-tiers-and-rankings. Also, we’ll continue to have plenty of draft content throughout August, including more draft strategy, players to target and avoid, bold predictions, and more.
T-Law - Moves up to QB Tier II in Year 3
In order to have a successful draft, you’ve got to have more than just a good handle on the players. You need a draft plan and strategy, and you need information - but not just any information; you need the right information. I’ve been playing redraft fantasy football for almost 30 years, and have gotten better and better at drafting, in large part because I’ve developed better methods of preparation, and a better understanding of what I need to know on draft night. I want to share what I’ve learned. So let’s dive in - here are 13 Tips For a Successful Fantasy Draft. As a reminder, the focus is on season-long redraft leagues, although many of these concepts apply to other fantasy formats.
Stacks are Fun - But Don’t Overpay
Know your league’s basics: Size, rules, and scoring grid. This sounds obvious, but it’s building-block information that you need to know instinctively. It’s critical to understand your league’s size, roster and lineup requirements, and scoring rules, including anything that’s changed from last season. Needless to say, there are both standard and unique scoring rules that benefit (or penalize) certain players more than others. To use a very simple example, Derrick Henry is more valuable in standard scoring than he is in Half or Full PPR, although he’s still a top-tier RB in all formats. Another simple example: Awarding 6 points per passing TD (vs. 4) benefits certain QBs more than others, while penalizing for INTs harms some QBs more than others. Lineup requirements can also impact the values of not only certain players but entire positions. An obvious example is Superflex leagues (where you can start 2 QBs), but even smaller differences can matter. If your league requires you to start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and 1 Flex, you’re going to have a slightly different approach than if the starting lineup must include 2 RBs, 3WRs, and 1 Flex. Make sure you’re fully up to speed on your league’s setup and scoring rules, and think about whether anything about your league’s specific format should factor into player and positional evaluations and values.
Don’t get owned by consensus rankings/ADP. Average Draft Position (ADP) and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are very useful tools, as they reflect a broad perception of players’ relative values. They’re a good starting point as you build your draft board and strategy and are a good indicator of the range in which you can expect players to be drafted. But don’t confuse them with actual player values, and don’t let those rankings create too much of a bias that ends up controlling your thought process. It’s easy to get sucked into groupthink and biases about player values given how widely ADP and ECR are broadcast and how often they’re discussed on podcasts. This can play out badly for you in drafts if you allow ADP/ECR to have too great an influence on your mindset, and as a result you end up taking players that you aren’t that high on, but you feel the pressure to take because the perceived value (those pesky ADP/ECRs) is staring you in the face when you’re on the clock. You don’t want to be laughed at for a “reach”, while passing on someone who is perceived as “better” because of their relatives ADPs. The best way to combat the tendency to get owned by the rankings is to make your own tiered rankings (more on tiers below), using your own evaluations and judgments. You’re the one picking your team - not me or any other fantasy analyst. For a more fulsome discussion of this issue, see this Pigskin Papers article from 2021: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-draft-prep-part-i-the-perception-of-value.
Be careful with site rankings during the draft. This is a cousin of Tip #2, but falling prey to this can be even more damaging. Most sites that host drafts (ESPN, Sleeper and MFL, for example) will show you a constantly updated list of available players, using the site’s rankings to prioritize them. This is a very useful and maybe even essential tool, if used properly. However, the same groupthink problem applies here, and it’s worse because it’s just one site’s rankings, you don’t know what league or scoring settings they’re using, and there are no tiers used. It can be helpful to use this resource on a limited basis, and if you know other players are using the site’s lists to draft, that’s valuable information; but using your own customized, tiered lists that reflect your own player value judgments is still better than relying too heavily on the site, and it serves the same purpose - just cross off players as they’re taken. For a more fulsome discussion of this issue, see this Pigskin Papers article from 2021: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-draft-prep-part-ii-dont-get-owned-by-site-rankings.
Bye weeks don’t matter. You have enough things to keep track of when you’re drafting - so don’t elevate the minutiae of bye weeks to another one of them. If your starting and backup QBs have the same bye week, you’ll find a streamer. If you picked 2 kickers that have the same bye week, well, someone will be saying “thanks for your league fee.” The only time I worry about bye weeks - even a little - is in something like the Scott Fish Bowl where the regular season ends after 11 weeks and there are bye weeks during the playoffs.
Get a final news update. Do one last news check right before your draft. Pick your favorite site that has an NFL news blogger and go through the latest news. You can also check the Twitter feed of someone like Adam Schefter or Ian Rapoport. I even recommend doing a few refreshes during draft downtime. Don’t be the guy who makes a pick and then has to suffer roars of laughter because the player you picked just got cut, or is scheduled for ankle surgery. The ridicule and humiliation sucks, and so does wasting a pick.
Use a highlighter. Take your draft board sheet, and using two colors of highlighter, indicate the guys you (a) like the most and would love to see on your team, and (b) like the least, either in relation to their likely draft price or just as an absolute. There are a lot of “name” players out there that you probably have no intention of drafting, but you still need to list them and rank them and you’ll probably end up doing that at something near their perceived value. Having high-lit draft sheets is a useful way to keep your eye on certain guys that you’re particularly high or low on, as the draft progresses. Plus, we all have drawers full of highlighters collecting dust. This is a chance to use them for something really important.
Don’t be a homer. Resist the temptation to load up on players from your favorite NFL team. Yes, it’s fun to root for the guys you’re also rooting for in real football. Dominating your league is even more fun.
Study, and use, NFL depth charts. One thing you want to have handy when you’re drafting is a set of updated NFL depth charts. Multiple sites provide these. Depth charts are especially useful in IDP leagues, and also for identifying RB handcuffs and roles. This is a good reference tool to have at your fingertips.
Be disciplined and stick with your draft plan as best you can. Yes, unexpected things always happen and drafts never go exactly as you envisioned. In snake drafts, you’ll almost always get sniped at least once, which can be unnerving. But patience and good discipline is key to a successful draft. Be flexible and adjust to what you’re seeing happen in your draft, but don’t completely abandon your strategy.
Use Draft Tiers. Targeting certain players is fine (I did after all recommend using a highlighter to flag the guys you really like), but don’t insist on securing specific players. You might not be able to get them, or you might have to overpay to a level that harms your team. In a snake draft, you don’t want to overpay by too much when you’re targeting a specific guy, and in an auction, if you and another owner both insist on getting Justin Jefferson, only one of you will actually land him, probably at an inflated price if you’re both unwilling to yield. This is one reason why draft tiers are so important - they can help you to focus on a group of players at a position who are in a similar range, and that makes it easier to manage your draft and in some cases to ensure you get at least one player with a similar “grade” when the snake comes back to you.
Fat stacks. Stacks can be nice to have in season-long play, but don’t reach too far or overpay in order to get one. We all love that feeling when we have Burrow and Chase and they hook up for a long TD. Points galore! But at the end of the day, points are points, and it doesn't really matter how you get them - you just want to maximize them, and get them as consistently as you can on a weekly basis. To do that, you want to draft the players who will deliver over the course of a season, at the best price. If you reach for Burrow (or overspend on him) when you’ve already taken Chase with a first round pick, and you do it just to get the stack, you’ve likely passed on more valuable assets and haven’t helped yourself. I’ll write more later this preseason on how helpful (or harmful) stacks can be, in a game where the objective is winning a matchup each week..
Wear a diaper. OK, just kidding - but the fewer absences you have from the draft room or from your computer, the better. Try to pay attention and stay engaged to the best of your ability. Speaking of which, don’t use your phone to draft - use a computer.
Have fun. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun. Stay focused and draft the best team you can, but don’t be so serious that you turn into a good vibes vampire who sucks the fun out of the room. Even if it feels like the draft is slipping away from you, or you’re starting to hate your team, or you realize to your horror that you’ve taken a few too many Cardinals, crack a few jokes and break a few balls. You only get this day, with this group of people, once per year.
DH
