Fantasy Football ‘22: RED LIGHT: Players I’m Avoiding at ADP

Let Someone Else Overpay for Javonte

(Published August 21, 2022)

I hope you’ve been enjoying our fantasy football draft content. I’ve focused a lot on draft prep and strategy in the last week, and now I’d like to talk about some specific players I’m targeting (“green light”) and avoiding (“red light”) this season. I’ll start with the traffic light we all hate to see - the red light.

This is my “Danger Will Robinson” red light list for 2022. These are the players I recommend you steer clear of in the early stages of your draft, at their current Average Draft Position (ADP). This isn’t a straight-up “busts” list or a “do not draft” list. Rather, it’s a compilation of players I’m leery of hitching my fantasy wagon to for this season. It’s players that I don’t like (at all) at or near their current ADP, meaning they’re unlikely to end up on any of my teams. Some of them definitely offer value at a cheaper price, and some will slide towards a more reasonable ADP in the coming weeks - so keep an eye out for that. I’m mainly focusing on players going inside the first 8 rounds of a 12 team draft (roughly the first 100 picks). After that, a whiff still matters, but it’s a lot less costly.  

One caveat - people who play in multiple leagues (3 or 4, or more) often have a different approach to player risk than those who play in just 1 or 2 leagues. Let’s say you’re playing in only 1 league. I’m going to assume you care a lot about that league, and how your team finishes. Maybe you care a little too much, but that’s a separate issue that I definitely am not equipped to help you with. Every early pick you make has the possibility of submarining your entire fantasy football experience for 2022. Every swing and miss throughout your draft matters to you personally. If you decide to avoid a specific popular player, and he goes off, that miscalculation might sting all year. 

On the other hand, people who play in multiple leagues have the ability to diversify their portfolio, just like you would if you were investing in the stock market. If I’m down on Antonio Gibson this season, but in the back of my mind I can see a scenario where he ends up as a top 10 RB, I can draft him onto 1 or 2 of my many teams, and I won’t miss out completely if his best-case scenario pans out. This isn’t an argument for playing in more leagues - I’m the rare fantasy analyst who really only has 1 league he cares about and only plays in a couple of leagues. But I wanted to explain this concept because I think it matters a lot for a column like this one. 

ADPs listed for each player are current as of 8-21-22. All ADPs and fantasy rankings reflect Half PPR scoring.

***See our updated player rankings here***: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-wr-and-te-redraft-rankings ; https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-qb-and-rb-redraft-rankings .

***FOLLOW THIS LINK for our GREEN LIGHT: Players To Target: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-green-light-players-im-targeting .

I’m Cooled to Joe Brrr’s High Price

QB - 

Joe Burrow (ADP: QB6, 58 overall).  Burrow is a star. He got to a Super Bowl in just his second season, and finished last season as the QB8. He’s got excellent weapons, his OL is improved, and I like him to finish this season as a borderline top 10 QB. Sounds great, right? Not so fast. His current ADP is QB6 (57 overall), and he’s going ahead of Hurts, Brady, R. Wilson, Dak, Rodgers, and Stafford, in some cases by a few rounds. I’m a believer in waiting on QB this season in 1 QB leagues, and see no reason to jump on Burrow in the 5th round when I can wait a couple of rounds to take one of those other players, or even another 2-3 rounds after that to get Carr or Cousins. Moreover, when you dig into the numbers you see that Burrow’s performance was lumpy and inconsistent last season. He had some absolute monster games, but he only had 3 weekly finishes as a top 6 QB all season. I want more consistency than that in a game where each week is a separate win or lose contest. Burrow at his current price just isn’t good value given the unusually strong depth of high quality options at the position. 

Trey Lance (QB13, 100 overall). Lance is a polarizing player this offseason, and his ADP has been rising. His dual-threat upside is tantalizing. Is there a scenario where he takes “The Leap” and is this year’s version of 2019 Lamar or 2020 Josh Allen? Yes, but given how little he played not only last year but in college, and how he looked when he did play last year, I highly doubt it. Lance is going ahead of Carr and Cousins and my guess his that his ADP will soon pass Stafford, possibly R. Wilson, and maybe even Rodgers too, and I wouldn’t take the risk of grabbing him ahead of any of them. Lance is a good example of the diversification point I made above - he’s a breakout candidate in 2022 and if you’re playing in 10 leagues, you probably want some exposure in your portfolio just in case he explodes. But if you’re playing in just 1 league, I’d be careful with him given how many other proven, excellent options there are at QB, at a similar price. If you do take Lance, I’d try to pair him with Carr, Cousins or Ryan, so you have a reliable and “safe” alternative in case he doesn’t take a step forward.

How Many Touches Will Josh Jacobs Get in 2022?

RB

Javonte Williams (RB11, 19 overall). This has nothing to do with talent - I think Williams is a terrific young RB with a great skillset. I also think he’ll have a very good season on an improved offense. This is entirely about his role and opportunity not corresponding with his high price. Williams and Melvin Gordon got an identical number of carries last year (202) and similar target volume (53-39, in favor of Williams), and I don’t see that changing enough to warrant a mid-2nd round pick on Williams. The coaching staff trusts Gordon, and like Williams, he’s a complete back who’s good in pass protection and a good receiver. Gordon could get the bulk of the work in the 2-minute offense, given his experience. Williams is going ahead of Kamara, Fournette, Barkley, and Elliott (RBs 12-15), all of whom should see a much higher percentage of their team’s RB touches. I’d take them all ahead of Williams, and they’re all slightly cheaper.

Cam Akers (RB17, 32 overall). This one makes me a bit nervous, because I really liked how Akers looked at the end of 2020, this Sean McVay offense scores a lot, and Akers could easily get double digit TDs. He should be fully recovered from his achilles injury from last summer, and I’m willing to discount how awful he looked when he returned early from that injury for the 2021 playoffs - he only managed around 2 YPC and lost 2 critical fumbles against the Bucs. I think he’s a pretty big risk as a 3rd round pick. I expect Darrell Henderson to have a sizeable role, the Rams OL is probably going to be worse, and this figures to be a pass-first team.  Pass (at ADP).

Antonio Gibson (RB 19, 38 overall), Josh Jacobs (RB22, 46 overall), and Elijah Mitchell (RB23, 47 overall). I’ve grouped these players together because they’re going in a very similar range and I think there’s a decent chance that all of them end up getting less of their team’s RB touches than you’d want, and won’t return good value. Each situation is different, but all carry a lot of risk for a pick in this range. In the cases of Gibson and Jacobs, at least 2 other RBs are likely to have a meaningful role on the offense. In the case of Mitchell, there are also other backs, but the real issues are his injury history and the fact that he’s already out for the entire preseason with a hamstring injury, and his coach’s penchant for keeping us guessing. All 3 of these guys could return good value at their draft spot, but given the quality of low-risk WRs, TEs, and even QBs that have similar ADPs and who you could take instead, I’d rather go that route in this part of the draft. I’d prefer Jaylen Waddle, D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton, or Darren Waller, or if you don’t want to wait on QB, Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, than any of these 3 RBs, and they’re all similarly priced.

Devin Singletary  (RB29, 78 overall) and Miles Sanders (RB28, 71 overall). I’ve lumped these 2 together because I think they’re in pretty similar situations. Both are talented. We’ve seen it on and off from Sanders throughout his brief career, and Singletary was the RB2 over the final 6 weeks of last season, and he kept it going in the playoffs. Both are on what should be high scoring, potent offenses. So why am I passing on them at ADP? The concern in each case is volume and opportunity. In both Philadelphia and Buffalo, the RB committee could feature up to 3 runners, and on top of that, the QB could easily vulture 8-10 red zone rushing TDs. I’m worried about the value. I’m more inclined to take J. Cook (RB38, 101 overall) or K. Gainwell (RB50, 139) later in the draft. See my 5 Powerful Drafting Concepts article for more on the danger of giving too much credit to the term “starting RB”: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-2022-5-powerful-drafting-concepts .

I’m Avoiding all Seahawks, Even This Guy

WR

Deebo Samuel (WR7, 18 overall). This one could certainly backfire, and I can’t blame anyone who jumps on this 2021 breakout star. Deebo showed last year that he has elite skills with the ball in his hands. I’ve got a 49er listed at every position in this piece, in part because I’m very nervous about this offense with a still raw Trey Lance at the helm. Deebo barely had any carries in the first half of the 2021 season and I don’t expect big rushing volume from him this year like we saw at the end of last season. I also don’t trust Lance to connect with him on as many big plays as Jimmy G did. Deebo exploded last year - in almost every stat he was at least 150% above what he did in either of his first 2 seasons - and I’m always skeptical of the sustainability of that kind of massive jump. I think Deebo will be good, but a pick in the middle of round 2 is a steep cost. There are RBs in that range (listed above) who I like a lot better at that price.

Diontae Johnson (WR17, 44 overall) - Johnson finished last year as the WR9, so why am I nervous about him at his current ADP of WR17? It’s a combination of things, but the headline is that I don’t think he comes anywhere close to the 169 targets he got last year. JuJu got hurt early last season and the Steelers really didn’t have a viable 3rd WR. Enter rookie George Pickens, who’s been a camp standout. Also, Pat Freiermuth didn’t emerge until the second half of the season, but this year he should be an important piece of the offense from the get-go. Throw in Claypool, Harris, and a mobile QB that figures to throw less than Ben did and to settle for fewer short throws, and I just don’t see the target volume, or the same success rate on targets.

D.K. Metcalf (WR 19, 50 overall) - Metcalf is already at a discounted ADP compared to last year, but I don’t think it’s fallen enough for me to be interested, despite his immense talent. Seattle already ran the fewest plays in the league last year, and now they’ve added a second round RB, and the QBs are…Geno Smith and Drew Lock? I’m a hard pass on Seattle players in fantasy this year, unless the price is exceptionally low. I expect them to be at or near the very bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Could D.K. get a ton of garbage time production? That’s the hope, but I don’t think it will be enough to justify his ADP. I also don’t want Tyler Lockett at his ADP (WR 38, 98 overall).

Jerry Jeudy (WR23, 57 overall). Jeudy makes my list for the 2nd straight year. Hopefully, you listened to me last season. I know - he’s had bad QB play for both of his NFL seasons. But he also hasn’t been productive, and nobody seems to want to accept that. Do you know how many career TDs he has? 3, all in 2020. So how is he the WR23? With Russ now at QB, I do expect this to be his best year yet, but I think Courtland Sutton (ADP: WR21) is the Denver WR you want, and their prices are almost identical. I need to see something from Jeudy before I pay up. I like a bunch of WRs that are going a little after Jeudy (WR ADPs in the mid to low 20s) a lot more than I like Jeudy: A. Robinson, Godwin, M. Thomas, G. Davis and A. St. Brown, so I’m unlikely to have Jeudy on any teams.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR35, 88 overall). An 8th round pick is a little too high for a guy missing 6 games. 

I Don’t Hate the 49ers. Really, I Don’t.

TE

George Kittle (TE4, 42 overall). No, I don’t hate the 49ers, and Kittle makes my list again this year. Did you know that he has never had more than 6 TDs in a season? Well, he hasn’t, and that, his injury history (he’s missed 13 games over the last 3 seasons) and the switch to Lance has me balking at this price. He’s an outstanding player. I just don’t like the value in round 4. I’d rather get Waller or Schultz, who are going half a round and a round and half later, respectively.

PK

Just kidding. Take any decent kicker, hope for the best, and pick up a better one on waivers later, if you need to.

Coming next: Green Light - the players I’m targeting as great values at current ADP.

DH