Fantasy Football 2022: 5 Powerful Drafting Concepts

Use Tiers - and Put JJ in Tier I

August is rolling on and many of you will be drafting in the next couple of weeks. The Pigskin Papers wants to help you win your league, and one of the main focuses here is draft strategy and preparedness. This is the second article in our two part series on draft strategy. Part I served up 13 tips to help you smash your fantasy draft. In case you missed it, follow this link: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-pigskin-papers-draft-tips . Today, I’ll hit on 5 powerful drafting concepts that I’ve come to lean on. It’s information I’ve gained from almost 30 years of playing season-long, redraft fantasy football.

1 - Tiers are Essential

In the article linked above, I talked about why it’s essential to use tiers when you draft, and this applies to both traditional snake drafts and auction (a/k/a salary cap) drafts. I want to illustrate this a little further, because it’s a powerful concept and a lot of fantasy managers still just use lists that aren’t broken into tiers. So I’ll start by repeating myself: Use tiers to construct your draft board. There’s a reason industry experts consistently push this advice. Newsflash #1: You aren’t going to get all the guys you want. Why? Because a lot of the players you want are guys other people also want. Most of us tend to want the best players and unless you’re in an 8 team league the competition for popular players as well as popular breakouts and sleepers is fierce. Newsflash #2: When dozens of players are organized into a single numerical ranking at a position, the differential between each spot in that ranking is going to vary, and there will be places where the dropoff (in terms of expected fantasy production) from one player to the next is big. Those cliffs can be almost anywhere on the list. Organizing your draft sheets into tiers at each position is very useful because as your draft unfolds, you can focus on where the drop-offs are, and how much quality and depth remains before the next drop. You can then use this information to your advantage when you draft, and focus on pods of players that you would be comfortable with at a given price (with a preference for your favorites), rather than locking in too hard on a few specific names. Below are links to my current updated rankings, and as you can see, I’m using anywhere from 4-6 tiers at each position. Some analysts use upwards of 10 tiers. Use what you’re comfortable with. https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-qb-and-rb-redraft-rankings ; https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-wr-and-te-redraft-rankings .

Let’s illustrate the value of using a tiered approach. Right now, I see the top WR tier as just 3 players (Kupp, Jefferson, and Chase), my Tier 2 has another 9 WRs (Diggs through K. Allen), and then Tier 3 has 13 more WRs (T. Higgins through A. Robinson). Obviously, anyone can quibble with my rankings, but they're what I’ve created and plan to work with. If I decide that I want to construct my team making sure I have one of those top 12 WRs from the first two tiers, with a clear preference for either Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb if I can get one of them, that’s an easier strategy to work with and to then expand to other areas of my draft than just insisting on getting Jefferson or Lamb as my WR1. And knowing that my Tier 3 is fairly deep and loaded with potential “WR 1s” also gives me the ability to shift gears if the asking price on the top 12 guys is too steep - for example, I could go in with the strategy noted above, with a fallback of, “or if I can’t execute that then I’ll make sure I get 2 WRs from Tier 3”, knowing I can keep adjusting depending on how things fall. This dynamic can become more important as the draft goes along and you move down the middle tiers at each position, where the drop-offs sometimes differentiate between players you can reliably start on a weekly basis, and players you can’t. When runs happen at a position, you can easily calculate how many guys are left in a tier and whether you’re likely to be able to get one of them in light of when you pick next, or in an auction, based on your remaining salary cap and how you plan to spend it. Before I draft, I label my tiers with descriptive explanations for what they mean to me, which is also helpful (example - I could Lebel my WR Tier III as “Borderline WR 1s and High-end WR 2s”). Tiers are very useful tools, so use them.

Najee: Workhorse Defined

2 - The term “Starting NFL Running Back” has a little too much allure. 

There are some starting RBs who have little competition from within and can reasonably be expected to see the vast majority of their team’s RB touches. For 2022, Najee Harris, CMC, Barkley, Henry and Dalvin Cook are the premium high-end examples. Other “starters”, such as Ekeler, Kamara, Chubb, A. Jones, and Elliott, will be in some kind of share but should see most of the early down and goal line work and should get enough high value touches (in most cases, on an excellent offense) that you can treat them as RB1s for fantasy purposes, with a good degree of confidence. But on teams like the Broncos, Eagles, Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Falcons, and a few others, where a committee approach is likely and the roles won’t be entirely clear until we see it, I’d be careful about overvaluing their “starting RB”. I’m not saying don’t draft any RBs on these teams, or that none of them have value. They certainly do, at the right draft price. But temper your expectations. I can confidently predict that barring major injury, there won’t be an RB from any of the teams mentioned above that finishes the season as an RB1 in a 10 or 12 team league. In some cases (like the Bills and Eagles), another limiting factor is the presence of a QB who could easily lead the team in rushing TDs, putting a ceiling on the team’s RBs - starters included. Finally, the “starting RB” on a terrible team can be tricky also, since game scripts often result in bad teams abandoning the run while they play catch-up, all of which leads us to….

The Flacons could be the pits, except for Pitts

3 - Avoid most players on “dead zone” teams. 

It’s generally true that there can be a lot of fantasy value on a bad NFL team. Bad NFL teams, and especially those with bad defenses, are often chasing points and can pile up yardage and TDs in catch-up mode and garbage time. We’ve seen tons of examples of this over the years. The Lions were a good example last year, and I expect them to be that type of team again this year as they continue to improve, plus they’ve got some very good skill position players and a competent QB. The Jaguars and Texans are other likely examples for 2022. But sometimes, an NFL team is just a fantasy graveyard, and hopefully we can see these teams coming. Such was the case with the 2021 NY Giants, who went 4-13 and finished at or near the bottom in numerous offensive categories, including total TDs where they were dead last. Some smart drafters saw that coming - the team was coming off a dismal 2020 season, still had the same inept coaching staff, hadn’t done that much to address a bad O-line, and Saquon wasn’t all the way back. Do we have a team like this in 2022? I think we have 2. With the notable exception of Kyle Pitts, I plan to stay as far away from the Falcons and Seahawks as I can. Could Drake London or D.K. Metcalf be a serviceable and consistent WR? Maybe, but I don’t like either one at his current ADP. Call me crazy, but I’ll take A-Rob or Hollywood Brown over Metcalf. And while I like both R. Penny and K. Walker as players I think anything close to a 50-50 timeshare on a bad team likely means both will disappoint vs. their current ADP. I’m staying away unless the price is too good to pass up.

4- Practice with some Mock Drafts.

You have to be careful with mock drafts - lots of people do goofy things deliberately, or just go on autodraft after a couple of picks. But it’s a good exercise nonetheless, as it gives you a general sense of the players that will be in range across different rounds when drafting from various slots, plus it’s good practice for working with your draft tiers. It’s less valuable for salary cap leagues - I have yet to find a salary cap mock draft that was realistic in how it played out. ESPN has a free Mock Draft lobby with tons of drafts using multiple settings every hour, and there are plenty of other free options.

Mistakes happen - learn from them

5 - Don’t have unrealistic expectations.

You’re going to draft players you didn’t really want, or that you’ll regret drafting - know this going in and try to learn from it rather than just kicking yourself all season. This often happens because a veteran player who once was a star is sliding and starts to look like a real value. This is especially true in auction drafts where you can end up stuck with someone just by putting in a single bid on him. 2 years ago, I ended up with Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) in my auction, for what looked like a bargain in the low $20s, and my lone bid was mostly an attempt to drive up the price. And I know lots of people who took Bell that year in snake drafts, once he got to where he appeared to be a value. I had no intention of drafting him, much less any Jet that year as I had identified them as a dead zone team (see above). And yet, there he was on my team, stinking up the joint. Not only did he end up missing a bunch of games early with injury, and then sucking, but he ended up sucking for 2 teams (NYJ and KC) and was hard to drop because of the opportunity he had on both teams. The lesson is that if you really don’t want a guy, don’t go anywhere near him unless the draft price (in salary cap dollars, or draft rounds) is so small that you won’t care if the player busts.
Check back with the Pigskin Papers often during the next 2 weeks - plenty of additional fantasy football content is on the way!

DH