Fantasy Football ‘22: GREEN LIGHT: Players I’m Targeting

All Aboard the Michael Pittman Hype Train!

(Published August 23, 2022)

Welcome back, fantasy footballers! We’re getting closer to the big wave of fantasy drafts, so it’s almost crunch time. Two days ago, I published my annual “Red Light” list of players I’m avoiding at ADP. Here’s a link to that column: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-red-light-players-im-avoiding-at-adp .

Today, I’m giving you the “Green Light” players I’m targeting. I’m looking to take these guys at ADP if possible, or before if necessary. This isn’t a breakouts or sleepers column, but rather a list of players who I think offer solid value at current ADP, and are excellent building blocks for a strong team. I’m mainly focusing on players going inside the first 125 picks (roughly the first 10 rounds of a 12 team draft), other than at QB where I’ll go a little deeper because of the prevalence of Superflex leagues. After that, you’re getting deeper into your bench, and towards sleeper and dart throw territory.  

ADPs listed for each player are current as of 8-23-22. ADPs and 2021 rankings reflect Half PPR scoring.

The perennially underrated Kirk Cousins

QB

I’ll preface this by saying that in 1 QB leagues, I think that without question the proper strategy this season is to wait on drafting your starting QB. The top 12 QBs are the strongest group I can remember, and with the possible exception of J. Allen, I see no reason to burn a pick in the first 6-8 rounds on any of them when you can just wait and take whoever falls to the bottom of those 12. I wrote about the strength of the QB position earlier in the summer, and my view hasn’t changed: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-the-qb-position-is-loaded . For the record, here are the current top 12 in ADP: 1. Allen, 2. Mahomes, 3. Herbert, 4. Jackson, 5. Murray, 6. Burrow, 7. Hurts, 8. Prescott, 9. Brady, 10. Rodgers, 11. R. Wilson, and 12. Stafford. Look at that list again - it’s murderers’ row. I won’t talk about any of these 12, because while I’ve got my preferences, I’m fine with any one of them dropping to me while I fill other positions, and I’m cool going into the season with any of them as my QB1. Here’s who I like after them: 

Derek Carr (QB14, 107 overall) and Kirk Cousins (QB15, 111 overall). I’ve got these 2 lumped together because I project them to have very similar seasons. They aren’t the big name guys and they won’t get you rushing points, but they’re likely to get you production that’s comparable to the bottom half of the top 12. Cousins was the QB11 each of the last 2 seasons, and he’s thrown at least 25 TD passes in 7 straight campaigns. With all of his excellent weapons returning and former Rams’ OC Kevin O’Connell taking over as HC, I think Cousins can sneak into the top 10 this season. Similarly, Carr was the QB13 each of the last 2 years, and he hit a career high in 2021 with 4,800 yards. Now his All-Pro college teammate Davante Adams is added to the mix, alongside Waller and Renfrow. I’m fine using a 9th rounder on either of these guys as my starting QB in a deeper league, or getting them as one or both of my QBs in a Superlex. They’re underrated as fantasy QBs, and they’re very cheap. 

Matt Ryan (QB22, 151 overall), Jameis Winston (QB23, 162 overall), and Jared Goff (QB26, 196 overall). Ryan and Winston are my favorite guys to grab on the cheap as your backup in a 1 QB league or as your 2nd QB in a Superlex. Both have put up big numbers before, and both are on offenses that should be much better than what these QBs led last year. A top 12 finish from either one is not out of the question, and again, they’re really cheap. Goff is practically free, and with his added weapons, and on a team that figures to be in plenty of shootouts, I like him better than all of the other QBs ranked in the 20s, other than Ryan and Winston. 

Lenny Fourns - the Main Back Alongside Brady

RB

Dalvin Cook (RB5, 7 overall). I’m a little nervous about the top 10 RBs - there are some chilling stats that show that over the last few years, preseason top 10 RBs have gone on to finish as top 10 fantasy RBs less than half the time. A lot of that failure to meet expectations is because of injuries, and maybe that’s the point. Do you want your top pick to have such a high risk of injury? I’m coming around to the strategy of taking one of the top 3 WRs in Round 1, and then addressing RB over the next couple of Rounds, where I think there’s a lot of high quality depth at the position. That’s a larger strategy discussion for another day, but of the group of backs that’s almost always going in Round 1 (the top 8 or 9), I like Cook at his ADP better than those above him or just below him, at theirs. He’s an elite talent and a true 3-down back, and I think the Vikings are a playoff team. Plus, he’s the one stud RB you can effectively handcuff, which lowers the injury risk vs. other elite RBs. If I’m taking an RB in the bottom half of Round 1, Cook is my choice.

Aaron Jones (RB 10, 16 overall), Alvin Kamara (12, 19), Saquon Barkley (13, 20), Leonard Fournette (14, 23), and Ezekiel Elliott (17, 29). This is a large group, and I alluded to it above. There are a lot of very good RB values in Rounds 2 and 3, and these are my favorites. They each come with question marks of some kind, but who doesn’t? All are proven, all are lead backs, all see plenty of work in the passing game, and all but Barkley are in what should be excellent offenses that score a lot of TDs. Perhaps most importantly, they all have a realistic shot at finishing the season as a top 5 RB. 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB26, 65 overall). I know, I know, you’ve been burned by this guy for 2 straight years. Well, that was with him going in the first 20 picks. If this recommendation doesn’t pan out, then you get your money back and this column is free! I think K.C. will lean on their RBs a bit more with Tyreek Hill gone, and I think he’ll be the clear leader of the backfield. I won’t be surprised if he has a career high in catches and has his best season. At a 6th round price, sign me up. I think that’s solid value for him, with plenty of upside. 

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB35, 93 overall), Melvin Gordon (RB37, 97 overall), and Darrell Henderson (RB 41, 117 overall). I’m grouping these 3 together because they’re in similar situations, they’re all talented and versatile, and they share excellent value and upside at ADP. Each is technically the #2 back on his team, but each appears to be in line for a meaningful portion of his team’s RB touches, and could be playable as a flex even in a timeshare. Each is also one injury away from being a must-start workhorse on a good offense. With solid value pricing of Round 8 for Stevenson and Gordon, and Round 10 for Henderson, I’m in.

Dameon Pierce (RB44, 114 overall). Pierce is creating a lot of buzz and shooting up draft boards, and by the time you draft, he may not be such a bargain. For now, he is, and it looks like he’ll be the top back for the Texans. Even if he doesn’t dominate touches, he’s their best back and the only one that’s dangerous and explosive. He’s a big play waiting to happen and that’s what you want in fantasy. I think they’ll find ways to get him plenty of touches even in a 3-man rotation. He blew up in the first preseason game, then got the starter’s treatment (rested) for the second one. Those are good signs for the start of the season. Giddyup! And shhh - don’t tell anyone.

Bonus: here are a few other big bargains with upside that I like at ADP: Brian Robinson, Jr. (RB48, 140 overall), and Tyler Allgeier (RB59, 159 overall).

GabeDave: Ready to Break Out

WR

Michael Pittman, Jr. (WR13, 36 overall). Pittman is on a lot of breakout lists and his ADP has risen to the point that I no longer think he’s much of a bargain, but I still think he’s a guy you want to target. He finished last year as the WR15, ran a route on 96% of dropbacks (3rd most in the NFL), had a 24% target share (8th best), and made 18 contested catches (4th most), all of which portends good things. Plus, that was with Carson Wentz under center and T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle still on the team. He’s entering his third season (where WRs often take off), Matt Ryan is now the QB, and he’s the clear #1 in this passing offense. Colts’ coaches stopped trusting Wentz down the stretch last season and rode Taylor as much as they could. This should be a more balanced offense, including in the red zone. Barring injury, it’s hard to see a scenario where Pittman doesn’t take a pretty big step forward. A top 10 finish won’t surprise me, and I think he’s a solid value at the end of Round 3 or top of Round 4.

Courtland Sutton (WR21, 56 overall), Brandin Cooks (22, 58), Allen Robinson II (24, 62), Gabe Davis (27, 68), and Chris Godwin (28, 70). I want to get at least one of these WRs on my team in every draft, and preferably 2 if possible. These are my favorite guys in the 5th-6th round range, where I think the WR group is particularly strong this year. I won’t discuss each player in detail, but I think there are good reasons why each one is poised to have his best season yet, or close to it. Robinson and Sutton are very talented but have never played with a competent QB, Davis is a TD machine entering that 3rd season where WRs often pop, and Cooks should again top 130 targets, on a team that will often be playing catch-up. As for Godwin, his ADP won’t stay here if it becomes clear that he’ll be ready Week 1, but for now, he’s a bargain even if he misses a couple of games.

Michael Thomas (WR 31, 74 overall). I’ll admit that I’m worried about the hamstring injury that he’s dealing with, but on the plus side, it’s pushed his ADP down. Maybe Thomas is now a player who just can’t stay on the field, and who will never again be a reliable fantasy asset. That said, early reports out of camp were excellent, he’s got a QB that can get him the ball anywhere on the field, and we can’t forget how dominant he was before his injuries. It was only 3 seasons ago that he finished as the WR1. At this price, I’m willing to take the risk on him.

Christian Kirk (WR41, 101 overall) and Allen Lazard (43, 104). I’m connecting these 2 because each one finds himself as the top receiving option on his team for the first time in his career. Lazard is teamed with one of the most prolific and accurate QBs in history, and Kirk has a young QB with a big arm who’s going to need to throw a ton to keep his team in games. Lazard actually led the Packers in red zone targets over the second half of last season, even with Davante Adams opposite him. Rodgers trusts him and that goes a long way. Kirk could easily top 140 targets. I love the value for both.

Treylon Burks (WR48, 119 overall). I’ve come full circle on Burks. After the NFL Draft, I wrote that he was my top rookie WR in fantasy for this season. I cooled on him as more and more negative reports came out at the start of camp. Well, his ADP has dropped to the point that I think he’s worth the gamble. He’s got a clear path to a starting role and a good workload in this offense, Ryan Tannehill is still productive, and I can’t shake the 2021 experience of Ja’Marr Chase’s ADP dropping so far because of training camp reports. Burks isn’t Chase, but at a 10th-11th Round price, it’s a risk worth taking. 

MVS (WR55, 136 overall). MVS has yet to put it all together, and it’s not like Mahomes is a big upgrade over Rodgers. But with Hill gone and Hardman so inconsistent, I think MVS could carve out a nice role as a deep threat in this offense. The Chiefs gave him a big contract (he’s getting a lot more money than they gave JuJu) and I expect them to give him an opportunity to be an important piece of the offense. At this low price, I’m buying the upside.

I know I said this isn’t a sleepers column, but here are a few big bargain WRs with upside that I think are excellent values in the much later rounds: Romeo Doubs (WR65, 174 overall), Michael Gallup (WR66, 175), I. McKenzie (68, 188), Jahan Dotson (69, 196), Josh Palmer (72, 213), and Alec Pierce (73, 214). 

Schultz: One of the Best Values on the Entire Board

TE

Dalton Schultz (TE6, 58 overall) Schultz finished last season as the TE3, and that was with Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson and TE Blake Jarwin on the team. He’s an ascending talent on a very good offense, with what should be a very significant role. CeeDee Lamb is the only proven and fully healthy WR on the roster. What am I missing? Schultz at this price is one of the best values anywhere on the board. 

Cole Kmet (TE14, 128 overall) and Gerald Everett (TE23, 199 overall). I feel like every starting TE after the first 10 guys or so is pretty much the same - a dart throw who could give you 2 for 25 each week, or could pan out into a top 10 TE. It’s a weak position with few sure things. If you don’t address the position with one of the top 10 options, I like waiting and grabbing 2 of the guys ranked from 11-25 and figuring it out as you go. Of that group, the values I like best are Kmet, who should see plenty of volume as Chicago’s #2 target, and Everett, who is on a potent offense, has talent, and is basically free.

Check out our two big draft strategy articles below, and check back soon for more pre-draft content!

https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-pigskin-papers-draft-tips

https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-2022-5-powerful-drafting-concepts .

DH