Fantasy Football ‘22: Breaking Down the WRs on New Teams
The Cheetah has Taken His Talents to South Beach
(Published August 11, 2022)
D. Adams, T. Hill, A.J. Brown, M. Brown, A. Robinson, A. Cooper, J. Smith-Schuster, R. Woods, and C. Kirk. Is that my wish list at WR for my fantasy team this year? Not quite. It’s the incredibly strong and deep list of prominent WRs that find themselves on new teams this season. Behind them, we’ve got Davante Parker, MVS, Russell Gage, Julio Jones, and D.J. Chark. Add it up and it’s the best group of relocated WRs in a single offseason that this analyst can recall. What can we reasonably expect from each of them this season? I’ll try to tackle that in this article. For those interested in an explanation of why so many WRs got moved this offseason, see this piece (numbered paragraphs 1 and 2 in particular): https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/nfl-draft-recap-what-to-make-of-what-went-down .
Evaluating the fantasy prospects of WRs on new teams is tricky. A number of key factors have to be considered, such as QB play, coaching, the quality of the offense, the offensive scheme, and how the player fits into his new team. Trying to determine a WR’s expected target share and overall performance is hard when it’s a brand new situation. The traditional thinking was that you could always expect at least some dropoff in a WR’s first year on a new team. But then S. Diggs, A. Cooper, and D. Hopkins made us rethink that. Redraft leagues will be drafting soon, and correctly valuing the relocated WRs is one of the bigger challenges facing fantasy managers.
In order to break this down, it’s helpful to look at past examples of prominent receivers changing teams, and how they did in year 1. We’ll do that, and then we’ll dig into the new situations that this year’s relocated WRs find themselves in, and what that might portend for them in 2022.
PART I - Recent History
A-Rob’s 2nd Team Change Should Produce Better Results
I looked back at the 5 year period from the end of the 2016 season to the start of last season (2021) and identified the 15 most productive WRs that switched teams during that span, to see what history might be able to tell us. This is the list: D. Hopkins, OBJ (to Cle), A. Brown (to LV, to NE, to TB), S. Diggs, A. Jeffery, J. Jones (to Ten), A. Cooper (to Dal), A. Robinson (to Chi), B. Cooks (to NE, to LAR, to Hou), K. Golladay, J. Landry (to Cle), C. Davis, M. Jones (to Det, to Jac), C. Samuel, and S. Watkins (to LAR, to KC). I dropped Antonio Brown from the analysis, due to the bizarre nature of his odyssey and the fact that he didn’t play more than 8 games on any of the teams he landed with. That leaves a total of 18 moves, across 15 WRs. For any players that got moved mid-year (like Cooper), I looked at the first full season on the new team.
The analysis isn’t perfect, due in part to injuries and other factors. But the raw numbers of this 5-year sample show that it’s still the norm for WR fantasy production to drop in season 1 after relocation. In only 5 of the 18 cases (Cooper, Diggs, Cooks to the Texans, Watkins to the Rams, and Jeffery) was there improvement in year 1 in the player’s fantasy ranking among WRs, and in the case of Watkins it wasn’t meaningful as he finished outside the top 35 WRs. Hopkins was the WR5 in both his last season with the Texans and his first with the Cardinals. Robinson and Golladay are hard to measure because injuries kept them off the field for most of their final season with their old team, but their first full seasons with their new teams were forgettable, and well below their previous averages. Some of the drops in fantasy rank, such as OBJ, Landry, J. Jones, and C. Davis, were significant (10 spots or more). It’s not a great history, but that doesn’t mean that new WRs can’t excel on new teams. Still, it’s useful information as we try to break this all down.
PART II - Looking Ahead to 2022
For the more prominent WRs, we’ll try to figure out whether to expect a jump or a drop in fantasy production vs. their past few seasons on their old team. Needless to say, in the cases of Hill and Adams, who are among the top 3 WRs in almost every fantasy metric over the last 4 years combined, going from Mahomes (and Andy Reid) and Rodgers to Tua and Carr, respectively, is a major downgrade - but that doesn’t mean they’re going to fall off the map. The talent is still there. We’ll discuss these 2 in the greatest detail. I’ve divided players into 3 categories - Improvement Expected, About the Same, and Drop Off Expected. All rankings and ADPs shown reflect Half PPR scoring.
A.J. Brown is Ready to Roll in Philly
Improvement Expected
Allen Robinson. If I listed the QBs that ARob has caught passes from in his NFL career, you’d probably send him a sympathy card. Blake Bortles might be top of the list. Robinson is a talented wideout who’s been saddled with bad QB play, bad offenses, and bad coaches for pretty much his entire 8 year career. Well, now he gets to play with Matt Stafford, in a Sean McVay offense, on the Super Bowl champs, and with Kupp on the other side. We saw what OBJ did after he joined the Rams last year. ARob had a 19% target share on the Bears last year, but finished the season well outside the top 50 WRs. I’m high on A-Rob, who has a chance to have his best season yet and should finish inside the top 25 WRs this year. I love him at his current ADP (WR27, 69 overall).
Marquise Brown. Hollywood is coming off his best season (WR23), and I like him to improve on that this year, which will be his 4th NFL season. He’s reunited with his college QB, on a team that should throw more than the Ravens have during Hollywood’s tenure. Hopkins is out for 6 games, Kirk is gone (more on him in a minute), A.J. Green and Zach Ertz are older, and the Cards defense isn’t likely to be as good this year. Put it all together and I think Brown could command a target share similar to last year (26%), but on a higher volume and deeper throwing offense. I think he’s fairly valued at his current ADP (WR20, 59 overall).
Christian Kirk. Kirk is another player coming off his best season so far (WR26), but I think he can improve on that in this, his 5th season, mostly because of the situation. Jacksonville was a complete mess last year, but Trevor Lawrence did show improvement down the stretch. With Doug Pederson coming in, Lawrence having a year under his belt, Kirk’s ability to stretch the field, and the lack of other options in Jacksonville, I think Kirk should easily jump above his 19% target share from last season. I expect him to command over 120 targets this year if he stays healthy, and I love the value at his current ADP (WR 42, 105 overall).
About the Same
JuJu. JuJu’s production has been all over the place in his 5 year career, so he’s hard to baseline. At the low end is last season, where he played only 5 games and was invisible, and at the high end, he caught over 100 balls for more than 1,400 yards in 2018. I like him to have a very good, but not elite, season, which would be somewhere in the middle of his past campaigns, and land him as a solid WR2. The upgrade to Mahomes and an Andy Reid offense is huge, and Hill and his 25% target share have left town. Outside of Kelce, the other WR/TE talent is below average, and JuJu should step in as the top WR. I think his current ADP (WR33, 77 overall) is a good value, and I expect his ADP to improve as the preseason wears on.
A.J. Brown. Brown has missed parts (or all) of 8 games total over the last 2 seasons, but for the most part, he’s been a borderline fantasy WR1 when healthy. Last year was the worst of his 3 NFL campaigns. After 2 seasons finishing as a top 15 WR, he fell all the way into the mid 20s on a ppg basis. In one of the bigger surprises of the offseason, the Titans dealt him to the Eagles on Draft night. In Tennessee, Brown was the clear #1 passing option, even as a rookie. In Philadelphia, I won’t be surprised if 2nd year WR D. Smith leads the team in targets, but I think Brown will still get his. J. Hurts can be erratic, and the Eagles ran the ball more than any team during the second half of last season, so there’s some risk here. I expect Brown to finish the season ranked somewhere in the mid-teens of WRs. His ADP (WR11, 27 overall) is a little rich for me, but I’d take him a few spots below that.
Adams: Worth the Gamble in Vegas?
Drop Off Expected
Davante Adams. Adams has been an absolute monster in Green Bay. In the last 4 seasons, he has a WR1, WR2, and WR3 finish to his name. Without question, he’s been an elite fantasy asset since 2018, which means that staying at his current level would be difficult even without a change of scenery. He isn’t going into a bad situation - D. Carr (who played with Adams at Fresno State) has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of the last 4 seasons, with a high of 4,800 last year. But he’s leaving an ideal situation, with the back-to-back reigning MVP throwing him passes and inferior competition for targets. LV has D. Waller and H. Renfrow, who each have a 100 catch season on their resume. I fully expect Adams to step in and be the #1, but in Green Bay, you knew he was getting the ball and nobody could stop it. His absurd 32% target share last year wasn’t an anomaly, and his 624 targets over the past 4 seasons is easily tops in the NFL. That target share will go down and he’s unlikely to approach the 169 targets he got last year. A dropoff of some kind is inevitable. But that doesn’t mean Adams isn’t still a WR1. He is, and his ADP reflects that (WR4, 11 overall). I’m just a touch lower on him than that, but still expect high-end production from him.
Tyreek Hill. Like Adams, Hill has been a truly elite fantasy producer for several years. He’s finished as a top 10 WR in 4 of the last 5 seasons, including one season as the WR1 and one as the WR2. Hill was great again last year, finishing as the WR6, and commanding a 25% target share in KC’s mostly prolific offense. The Cheetah is still the most dangerous WR in the game, with the top-end speed to get behind the defense, and take any catch to the house. But whereas Carr is a proven and known quantity at QB, Tua is not as he enters his 3rd season. Miami has rebuilt its offense as much as any team this offseason, and the hope is that Tua will excel as a result. The wholesale changes start at the top with new Head Coach Mike McDaniel. In addition, the offensive line has been rebuilt, and in addition to Hill, new arrivals include slot man C. Wilson from Dallas, plus RBs C. Edmonds and R. Mostert. It’s tough to know what this offense will look like, and how Hill will be used. Second year wideout J. Waddle caught 104 balls last year on 140 targets, and TE M. Gesicki caught 73 on 112. Miami will want to get the ball in Hill’s hands, but it’s hard to envision him getting his 25% target share from last year, or putting up numbers comparable to what he put up in KC for the last 5 years. I’m not envisioning a huge dropoff, but I do think it could be a bit disappointing. Hill’s current ADP (WR 8, 21 overall) reflects only a slight dropoff. I have him ranked similarly, but I don’t feel good about it. The Dolphins fan in me hopes I’m wrong.
Robert Woods. After a slow start to his career with the Bills, the former USC standout signed with the Rams and quietly became one of the steadiest producers in fantasy. He isn’t flashy, but in each of 2018, 2019, and 2020, Woods finished the season in the WR10-20 range, and he was on pace to do so again last season before suffering a torn ACL in November. Now Woods has been traded to the Titans, where he figures to emerge as the team’s top receiving option. While the Titans are definitely an offense that pounds the ball, Woods is moving to a decent situation. A.J. Brown and J. Jones are gone, and R. Tannehill has supported strong WR fantasy seasons before. My main concern here is that Woods is coming off of a torn ACL, plus he just turned 30. I think he’ll be decent, and I like him a little better than his current ADP (WR40, 100 overall), but that represents a sizable dropoff from what he’s been with the high flying Rams the last few seasons.
Amari Cooper. This one feels like a no-brainer. Although Cooper fell to WR24 last year on a ppg basis, he was a top 15 WR each of the prior 2 years (his other 2 full seasons with the Cowboys), with Dak Prescott feeding him very good volume and high value targets. As of this writing, it’s not clear how much (if at all) Deshaun Watson will play this season, but Goodell has appealed the 6 game suspension that the arbitrator assessed, asking for a ban of at least one full season. I’m guessing we won't see a lot of Watson this year. Cooper is clearly the top wideout in Cleveland, but I don’t trust Jacoby Brissett to take advantage of Cooper’s talents. His current ADP (WR26, 63 overall) reflects an expected dropoff from his Dallas days.
Others: This article is already long enough, so I’ll just hit on the others briefly. Of the other WRs who changed teams, I think we need to wait on more definitive news regarding the health and availability of Chris Godwin before evaluating the 2 new Bucs receivers. My guess is that either one could be serviceable, but it’s hard to expect both to be unless Godwin (or Evans) misses a lot of time. Of the two, I like Gage better. Devante Parker is worth a late round flier. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy the last few seasons, but if he can do so he’s the most talented WR in New England and could end up with decent production. D.J. Chark has talent, and Goff is better than you think at supporting WR and TE fantasy production, but Chark figures to be at best the 4th option in the Detroit passing game so I’d temper expectations. Finally, I think MVS will be just like he was in Green Bay - he’ll have some big games, but won’t be consistent, making him a tough start outside of best ball formats.
Come back soon for much more 2022 fantasy football and draft prep content.
DH
