Pigskin Papers: 2023 Waiver Wire Week 14
Cincinnati’s Other J.B. Carves up the Jaguars
(Published December 5, 2023)
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Welcome to the Waiver Wire, Week 14. The injury bug came back with a vengeance in Week 13. Even with a smaller slate of games, players dropped like flies all weekend. A not-so-short list of those who got hurt: T. Lawrence, D. Carr, K. Pickett, D. Henry, R. Stevenson, Brian Robinson, T. Dell, C. Kirk, C. Watson, P. Nacua, A. Cooper, M. Brown, and T. Higbee. With the fantasy playoffs just one week away, and with the final 2 Byes scheduled for Week 14, those big injuries are going to mean plenty of scrambling for fantasy managers. Let me see if I can help. If you’ve saved your FAAB dollars, now would be a good time to use them to grab what you need.
WEEK 14 BYES: ARI, WAS
The Process: Each week, I try to identify the top Waiver Wire targets and evaluate the short and long term prospects of those players. I also do my best to reveal which players who are coming off a big week are fool’s gold. Finally, I endeavor to find streamers who might help you in a pinch. Note that this advice is primarily intended for Season-Long leagues, and NOT Dynasty leagues.
Some of the players I’ll talk about won’t be available in your league. As a general rule, I list players who are available in more than 50% of leagues. But what does that even mean? A 10 team league with 6 bench spots will have a much larger free agent pool than a 14 team league with 8 bench spots. Most leagues fall somewhere in between. This isn’t “one size fits all.”
Week 14 Waiver Wire:
QB: It’s ugly out there, as the QB injuries just keep mounting. At least 3 teams (NYJ, NE, ATL) are rolling out starters every single week who absolutely shouldn’t be starting NFL games (and the Falcons are nonetheless leading the woeful NFC South, go figure). If either Gardner Minshew or Matt Stafford is available, those are the top adds. But they’re probably rostered in your league. If you’re in need at QB, some of these players should be available:
Jake Browning. He was very sharp in his second start on Monday night (32-357-1-1, plus he added a rushing TD), and seems to have figured out very quickly who his top playmaker is. He also has some rushing upside, and is worth adding to your QB room if you need some help there. The Bengals are still in the wild card hunt in the AFC.
Jameis Winston. Warning, you must be at least this tall, and have at least this much intestinal fortitude, to ride this ride. Jameis throws picks. Jameis also throws TDs. It looks like he’s the starter for the foreseeable future. I’d like him better if more of the NO receivers who can run deep were healthy, but even so, you have to like the tasty schedule for Weeks 14-17: CAR, NYG, @LAR, @TB.
Baker Mayfield. It wouldn’t be my weekly waivers column if I didn’t mention him. Yesterday’s game was ugly, but with so many QBs getting injured this year, the QB15 on the season should be rostered in just about every league. His floor is solid, with only one game all season below 10 fantasy points.
Tyrod Taylor. The Giants have the smell of a frisky team down the stretch. Taylor might be able to coax some points out of this roster once (and also if) he returns as the starter. This is a very speculative (at best) add, for a Superflex QB2.
Joe Flacco. Did he do enough to keep the job when DTR is ready to return? Maybe. He can still sling it, and might have some value down the stretch as the Browns try to savage their season—IF he remains the starter.
If you’re absolutely stuck at QB2 in a Superflex, I guess you can consider Mitch Trubisky. This ride can be even more volatile than Winston. But if you’re choosing between him and, say, Desmond Ridder, I’d probably give Trubisky a shot. I’d also consider Will Levis if you’re out of other options.
Next Man Up: Old Man Zeke
RB: If you’ve been a regular reader of this column, you know that week after week, I’ve suggested stashing higher-end backup RBs. The last few weeks have shown why that was good advice. If you rostered any of Zach Charbonnet, Ezekiel Elliott, or Tyjae Spears, you’ve benefitted (or are perhaps about to benefit) from a starting opportunity created by injury. Nobody roots for injuries, but they’re a part of the game, and in fantasy, it’s a reality that managers need to prepare for, and can even use to their advantage.
Ezekiel Elliott. It’s hard to get too excited about a player on an offense as atrocious as New England’s, but volume is volume, and with Stevenson likely gone for the rest of the year, Zeke is the next man up. He doesn’t look washed up and should give you an OK floor going forward. Just don’t expect touchdowns - the Pats don’t score them.
Keaton Mitchell. I’m listing him just in case he’s available in your league, which he absolutely shouldn't be (if he is, are there any openings in your league for next year)? Anyway, if he’s on your wire, I’d take him over any of the other RBs listed here. His usage really ticked up in Week 12, and I expect that to continue after the Ravens’ Week 13 Bye.
Tyjae Spears. Derrick Henry was having a vintage Derrick Henry December game until he left midway through the 4th quarter after taking a very hard hit to the head from Zaire Franklin. Enter Spears, who stepped up as the featured back for the first time this season and looked very good. Henry is not in the concussion protocol, and with Tennessee not playing until Monday night there’s every expectation that he’ll be available. Still, Spears has shown out as a runner and pass catcher in limited chances, and the Titans need to start seeing more of what they have in him, with the playoffs no longer in reach. He’s a solid add, if he’s available.
Roschon Johnson. He's another player who shouldn’t be available in too many leagues, but who is a priority add if he is. I fully expect him to lead the Bears’ RBs in fantasy points over the remaining weeks of the season.
Antonio Gibson. Opportunity knocks. Hamstring injuries can linger, and it’s unclear how much time Brian Robinson will miss. Maybe none, since the Commanders are on a bye this week. Still, Gibson is worth picking up, as he has some stand-alone value even when Robinson is healthy.
Ty Chandler. He’s still only about 20-25% rostered on most of the major platforms, and I continue to think he’s worth a roster spot and has good upside down the stretch.
Other depth adds to consider: Chase Brown and Michael Carter. Both are trending towards getting more touches on a regular basis.
Here are the top remaining backup RBs I’d try to stash on my roster for the home stretch, for the reasons noted above: D. Johnson, R. Dowdle, K. Gainwell, and E. Mitchell. All would have league-winning potential if thrust into a starting role.
Moore: Historically Frustrating, but Worth an Add
WR: I’m going to assume that Brandin Cooks (a favorite of this column over the last month) is no longer available in the vast majority of leagues. here are some WRs who should be on the majority of waiver wires:
Noah Brown. He didn’t secure either of his targets on Sunday, in his first game action in almost a month. Even so, I’ll list him first among WRs who are widely available. With Tank Dell lost for the rest of the season with a broken leg (which is very sad—Dell’s emergence as a fantasy star was one of the most fun stories of this season), Brown figures to get plenty of looks in what has become a very productive passing offense.
Elijah Moore. The Cleveland passing game has been difficult to handicap, as the team has now started 4 different QBs in 12 games. Elijah Moore’s entire career has been difficult to handicap, as he has repeatedly frustrated fantasy players for 3 seasons. Joe Flacco looked decent in his debut, and has a better and stronger arm than the other backups that the team has tried. If he can keep the job, that’s a big plus for Moore. Moore was targeted 12 times this past week, but came away with just 4 grabs for 83 yards. The target share was obviously helped by Amari Cooper leaving the game with a head injury, and with his status in doubt for next week, and the vulnerable Jaguars on tap at home, Moore is definitely an attractive add.
Curtis Samuel. He continues to be the most productive WR on his team. Even though the Commanders are off this week, I’ll continue to recommend Samuel, who you can plug in as a viable WR3 or Flex as needed. The Commanders can’t play any defense, and that’s been benefitting the versatile Samuel.
A few other names I’d look at, for depth as you head into the playoffs, and possibly more if the need arises: J. Hyatt, J. Mingo, J. Williams, R. Shaheed, and K. Shakir.
TE:
Isaiah Likely. If he hasn’t been picked up in your league, pick him up. Period.
Gerald Everett. He’s not going to give you big numbers, but the Chargers have a favorable schedule (for TEs) the rest of the way, and with lots of injuries to the WR position, he’s got a role and an OK floor. He has 8 catches and a TD over the last 2 weeks.
A few others worth considering if you need TE depth or a desperation streamer: C. Otton, T. Hudson, M. Mayer, and T. Kraft.
Thursday Night Streamer Special: The Defense Playing New England
PK Streamers, Week 14: B. Grupe (vs. CAR), C. Dicker (vs. DEN), and C. Santos (vs. DET).
D/ST Streamers, Week 14: ANY defense playing either the Pats or Jets is streamable, as the Chargers just proved (and I listed them as a prime streamer last week (patting my back), so therefore…PIT (vs. NE) and HOU (@NYJ) are eminently playable. Also: MIA (vs. TEN), NO (vs. CAR), and GB (@NYG).
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