Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 14
Purdy: From Mr. Irrelevant To Fantasy Assassin
(Published December 7, 2023, updated Sunday December 10 for injuries and weather)
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Welcome to Week 14! For most leagues, this is the last week before the Fantasy playoffs start. Week 13 brought a slew of fresh injuries, and the final 2 Byes are this week. So I’m guessing that many of you might be scrambling to field a competitive lineup, and are facing some tough start/sit decisions among lesser options. I’ll try to help. But first, it’s everyone’s favorite segment…
Week 13 Stats of the Week!
2-year Running Bit: No Team in the NFC South is over .500
2 AFC Divisions (the North and South), have 3 teams with at least 7 wins.
The Titans had consecutive punts blocked by the Colts, the first of which was returned for a TD.
Special teams madness: After the blocked punt TD, the Colts went for 2. The Titans intercepted the pass on the 2-point try and returned it all the way (98 yards), for 2 points of their own. If this exact scenario has ever happened before, I’ll eat my hat.
The Chargers were 5.5 point favorites at New England. They scored 6 points, and still covered. If this has ever happened before I’ll eat another one of my hats.
The Patriots are the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to hold 3 straight opponents to 10 or fewer points, while losing all 3 games. If they extend that streak to 4 games tonight, I’ll eat a pair of my shoes.
After their big win over KC on Sunday night, Matt Lafleur is now 16-0 in December as Green Bay’s HC.
The 49ers’ 9 possessions at Philadelphia on Sunday: Punt, Punt, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, end of game.
Michael Pittman has 314 catches for his career, the most ever by a Colts’ player in his first 4 seasons. Both Marvin Harrison (5th most catches in NFL history) and Reggie Wayne (10th most) played their entire careers as Colts.
Puka Nacua is the second player who was not selected within the first 100 picks (common draft era) to surpass 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie (Marques Colston, 2006).
Before Seattle’s 41-35 loss to Dallas on Thursday night, Pete Carrol’s Seahawks teams were 36-0 when scoring 35 or more points.
Deshaun Watson is the only one of the 4 Browns’ QBs who have played this year to have thrown a TD pass to a WR.
Mike Evans now has 10 straight seasons with 1,000 receiving yards to start his career.
The Jets have scored a total of 58 points over their last 6 games.
The Jets have scored only one offensive TD in their last 5 games.
More J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets futility: On the season, the Jets have more first quarter safeties (2) than TDs (1).
Bryce Young has thrown only 1 TD pass across his last 4 games.
CMC scored his 50th career rushing TD on Sunday, joining Lenny Moore and Marshall Faulk as the only players in NFL history with at least 50 rushing and 25 receiving TDs.
The Commanders have allowed 45 points in each of their last 2 games.
MIA 45 - WAS 15 was a Scorgami.
Tyreek Hill has 5 games this season with 150+ yards and at least one TD, an NFL record.
With 2 more long scores on Sunday, Hill now has 21 career TDs of 60+ yards, which is 3rd all-time. DeSean Jackson is the all-time leader (26).
Hill is averaging more than 4.4 yards per route run this season, a full yard more than the highest total since NextGen stats began tracking this in 2016 (Hill, last season).
De’Von Achane has played more than 5 snaps in 4 games in his brief NFL career. He has 611 yards from scrimmage and 9 total TDs in those 4 games.
The Monday night overtime game between Jaksonville and Cincinnati was tied 5 differs times, the most in a game this year.
Cincinnati’s Jake Browning completed 86.5% of his passes (32-37) on Monday night, the highest percentage in NFL history for a QB making his first or second career start (minimum 20 attempts).
*******WEEK 14 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: Waiver-wire-week-14 *******
*****INJURY AND WEATHER SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE*****
Weather Report: Two games are likely to have a noteworthy weather impact: HOU@NYJ (rain throughout the game, heavy at times), and LAR@BAL (ditto). A slight bump down for the passing games of all 4 teams.
Injury Report: NOTE: Players on IR are not listed unless they’re eligible to return.
OUT: J. Taylor, I. Pacheco, K. Miller, C. Kirk (placed on IR), C. Watson, R. Shaheed, Taysom Hill, D. Schultz, T. Higbee
DOUBTFUL: E. Mitchell
EXPECTED TO RETURN: D. Foreman, J. McKinnon, J. Jefferson, D. Goedert
Questionable, Likely to Play: T. Lawrence (active), D. Carr (active), T. Etienne (active), B. Hall (active), K. Walker and Z. Charbonnet, R. Dowdle, S. Perine, C. Olave (active), A. Cooper (active), N. Brown (active), T. Boyd (active), D. Knox, J. Johnson (active)
Questionable/GTD: G. Smith, A. Jones
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: MIA (30.75), SF (28.5), DAL (28.25), KC (25), PHI (24.75)
Bottom 5: NE (12), NYJ (13), NYG (15.25), CAR (16), LAR (16.5)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BAL 2. SF 3. CLE 4. CAR 5. NYJ
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. PHI 2. WAS 3. JAX 4. DET 5. LAC
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. SF 3. ATL 4. MIN 5. BAL
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. CAR 3. ARI 4. IND 5. NYG
Top 5 vs WR: 1. NYJ 2. BAL 3. NO 4. CLE 5. GB
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PHI 2. WAS 3. LAC 4. TB 5. NYG
Top 5 vs TE: 1. SF 2. CLE 3. TEN 4. NE 5. KC
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. DEN 2. CIN 3. NO 4. LAR 5. NYJ
Week 14 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
INTRO
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Lamb, or Hockenson every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers crushed last week. Yes, I whiffed with Geno Smith as a Fade, but aside from that, the hits significantly outnumbered the misses. You can check my work here: fantasy-preview-week-13 .
I’m Predicting a Field(s) Day Against the Lions
QB:
Elite options - Hurts, Allen, and Prescott; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Justin Fields (vs. DET). Fields is ranked outside the Top 5 this week, and I think that’s too low. The Lions have been a mess on defense lately, including against the Bears a couple of weeks ago. Fields had 100 yards rushing in that game and I think his running ability will again be a problem for Detroit. The Lions have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs.
Other Rides:
A lot of fantasy QB1s are either playing extremely well of late, have favorable matchups this week, or both. All of these QBs are ranked inside the Top 10 this week, and I like them all to finish equal to or better than their weekly rankings: Tua (vs. TEN), P. Mahomes (vs. BUF), B. Purdy (vs. SEA), L. Jackson (vs. LAR), and J. Love (@NYG). Ride ‘em if you’ve got ‘em!
Moving into the teens in the rankings I also like R. Wilson (@LAC, who’ve allowed the 5th most FPPG to QBs and shouldn’t be congratulated for shutting down the Patriots), J. Goff (@CHI), and weather permitting, G. Minshew (@CIN).
QB Sleeper of the Week: Jake Browning (vs. IND). I’m trying not to overreact to how well je played at Jacksonville on Monday night. He’s getting the ball to Ja’Marr Chase as much as he can (which is smart), and looks like he’s got some game and some moxie. The Colts are a neutral matchup and this game has sneaky shootout potential, weather permitting.
Other Sleepers:
Baker Mayfield (@ATL). The Falcons shut down the Jets last week but as with the Chargers, who cares? What matters is how they do against real offenses and Mike Evans and Co. should create some problems for a Falcons’ defense that’s bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to QBs.
Joe Flacco (vs. JAC). This is assuming he starts, and that this isn’t one of those games where the weather in Cleveland is so bad that neither team can throw. I try not to overreact to one week but Flacco looked good last week and the Jaguars looked terrible while getting picked apart by Jake Browning. Flacco is ranked as the QB23 this week and that’s too low. If you need him as a QB2 in a Superflex, go for it.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Matthew Stafford (@BAL). Stafford has been on fire the last 2 weeks (47 fantasy points combined), but I think he could be in for a rude awakening after traveling across country to face a rested Baltimore defense in the early time slot. The Ravens have allowed the fewest FPPG to QBs and a league-low 10 TD passes in 12 games. Pass.
Other Fades:
Geno Smith (@SF, assuming he plays). I’ll try this again. Geno is coming off his best game of the season (31 fantasy points), and I faded him last week. This week he faces a 49ers’ defense that completely shut him down 2 weeks ago (8 fantasy points), and that game was in Seattle. I’ll avoid Geno if I can this week, despite his stellar outing in Week 13. The 49ers have allowed the second fewest FPPP to QBs and they can smell the #1 seed right now.
C.J. Stroud (@NYJ). I’ve been fading pretty much any QB that faces this defense. Even though they can’t sustain drives to keep their defense off the field, the Jets have allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs, and look at the partial list of QBs they’ve faced: Allen twice, Hurts, Mahomes, Tua, Prescott, Herbert…This pass defense is no joke, and I think the rookie phenom will have one of his lowest fantasy outputs of the season.
If you’re in a Superflex and need to start a lower-ranked QB2, aside from the obvious players that nobody should consider starting (B. Zappe, M. Trubisky, Z. Wilson, etc.), I’d try to avoid these lower-ranked signal callers this week: D. Carr (@CAR), T. DeVito (vs. GB), and B. Young (@NO).
Nobody Runs Harder Than This Man
RB:
Elite options - CMC and Kamara; the analysis starts below these 2.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Austin Ekeler (vs. DEN). It’s been a very disappointing season for Ekeler, who only has one game all season with 20 or more fantasy points, is the RB28 on the year, and has scored single-digit fantasy points in 3 straight weeks. A breakout game is coming, and I think it happens this week. The Chargers only scored 6 points last week, and will be looking to rebound (in what should be a fairly high scoring game) against a Denver defense that’s been very vulnerable to RBs both on the ground and through the air. They’ve allowed the most FPPG to the position, and of particular relevance for Ekeler, the third most catches to RBs.
Other Rides:
Isiah Pacheco (vs. BUF) is on a major roll lately (he’s the RB3 over the last 3 weeks), and I expect that to continue against a Buffalo defense that’s easier to run on than to throw on, and in a game where the Chiefs will likely try to slow things down. [NOTE: Pacheco is OUT for Week 14].
I like both Joe Mixon (v. IND) and Zach Moss (@CIN) in the same game. Rain is forecast, which should lead to good usage for both RBs. The Colts have given up the 4th most FPPG to RBs on the year and just got destroyed by Tennessee’s RB tandem, and the Bengals have been a pretty favorable matchup vs. RBs.
Other RBs ranked inside the top 24 (RB1s and RB2s) that I’m higher on this week than the consensus rankers include: D. Achane (vs. TEN), J. Gibbs (@CHI), J. Cook (@KC) and purely as a volume play, E. Elliott (@PIT), who is ranked as the RB24 this week.
RB Sleeper of the Week: Jerome Ford (vs. JAC). Ford is ranked outside the top 25 this week and I have him as a top 15-20 play. The Browns figure to lean on the run in bad weather, and the combination of Ford being heavily targeted in the passing game and the Jaguars having allowed the most catches to RBs is enticing. Get Ford in your lineups if you can.
Other Sleepers:
Roschon Johnson (vs. DET). It’s tough to trust anyone in this 3-headed backfield, and especially if D’Onta Foreman is back healthy, but Johnson had 15 touches last week and I think that’s a sign of things to come down the stretch. The once terrifying Lions’ run defense has softened, and Johnson is a decent Flex play this week.
Other sleeper RBs who I like for this week, if you’re in need: A.J. Dillon (@NYG), K. Mitchell (vs. LAR), T. Chandler (@LV), K. Gainwell (@DAL), and K. Hunt (vs. JAC).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: D’Andre Swift (@DAL). Swift won’t carry an injury designation into Week 14, which is good, but I’m having trouble clicking him into lineups nonetheless. In his last 4 games, Swift has only had double-digit fantasy points once. Gainwell is involved, Hurts dominates the red zone carries, and he just isn’t getting enough looks in the passing game (8 receptions over the last 4 weeks). Plus, Dallas has allowed the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs and Swift had a very pedestrian game in the first meeting between these teams.
Other Fades:
Tony Pollard (vs. PHI). Pollard is heating up recently, with TDs in 3 straight games. You’re obviously starting him this week, but the matchup is brutal. Philadelphia has allowed the fewest FPPG to RBs, and just 3 total TDs to the position all year. Like Swift, Pollard didn't do much in the first meeting (63 total yards, 0 TDs).
Rachaad White (@ATL). It’s tough to fade White, who has been money for the last 5 weeks. Since Week 8, only one RB other than CMC has more than 100 total fantasy points in half PPR, and believe it or not, that player is White. He gets elite usage (more than 80% of his team’s snaps and RB touches) and that creates a solid floor. The matchup this week is a very tough one. The Falcons allow the 3rd fewest FPPG to RBs, and get this - they’re the only team in the NFL that has yet to allow an RB to score a rushing TD.
Derrick Henry (@MIA). Henry avoided a concussion, and should be available on Monday. The game script is likely to be one that doesn’t favor him, plus Miami has quietly been a somewhat stingy run defense, and especially recently. He is always a threat to score a TD anytime Tennessee visits the red zone, and is coming off back-to-back games with multiple TDs, so I don’t blame you if you fire him up. Just temper expectations.
Other Fades: N. Harris (v. NE), SEA RBs (@SF), G. Edwards (vs. LAR).
Could Deebo Run Wild Again This Week? Sure He Could.
WR:
Elite options - The top 8 in WR points on the season don’t require any discussion, and the analysis starts below them (Hill, Lamb, Allen, A.J. Brown, Evans, Chase, Diggs, St. Brown), plus Justin Jefferson.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: D.J. Moore (vs. DET). With so many elite WRs off the table, let’s double down on the Fields call above and go with Moore, He’s been a little hit or miss at times, but I love the matchup this week against the Lions, who’ve been very vulnerable to the pass of late and have now allowed the 8th most FPPG to WRs. Moore should eat in this contest. Join him at the table if you can.
Other Rides:
D. Samuel and B. Aiyuk (vs. SEA). Will both of these guys go off? Probably not. But there should be enough to go around. If Seattle couldn't handle CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks, what makes you think they’ll be able to deal with this talented and physical duo? They won’t. SF rolls on…
Brandin Cooks (vs. PHI). He’s ranked as the WR26 this week and that’s too low. He’s been a very reliable WR2 for the last month (100 yards or a TD in 3 of the last 4 games) and the Eagles can’t stop anyone. They’ve allowed the most FPPG and TD passes to WRs. and this game has aerial shootout written all over it. Look closely, and you’ll see the writing! So while we’re here, I’ll also ride the other WR2 in this game, DeVonta Smith (@DAL).
Three other WRs ranked inside the top 26 that I’m higher on this week are: C. Sutton (@LAC), Z. Flowers (@LAR), and R. Rice (vs. BUF).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Gabe Davis (@KC). GabeDave is notoriously hit or miss (his catch totals the last 4 weeks are 9-0-2-6), and the biggest hit of his career came in the Divisional Round at Kansas City a few years ago, when he erupted for 8-201-4 in one of the most exciting games in NFL history. He won’t put up those totals this week, but I like the Bills to air it out in this one, and for Davis to easily outperform his WR33 ranking for the week.
Other Sleepers:
Drake London (vs. TB). Do I trust London? Not really. Do I trust Arthur smith? No, and anyone who says they do is lying. Do I trust Desmond Ridder? Not on your life. But London has been decidedly better in home games, and the Bucs are a favorable matchup (4th most FPPG to WRs). So yeah, I’m OK with London in lineups this week.
Elijah Moore (vs. JAC). I’m assuming Amari Cooper is going to miss this game, and that it won’t be a monsoon. Even though he only caught 4 of the 12 passes that Joe Flacco aimed his way last week, I’ll throw a few bucks on Moore to produce against a secondary that just got shredded by Jake Browning.
JSN (@SF). The Seahawks showed last week that they can mix it up with the big boys, and they figure to be playing catch-up in this one. JSN has emerged as a reliable target, and I think he’ll get just enough work in this one to be Flex-worthy.
Others I‘d consider, if you’re in need at the position: J. Reed and R. Doubs (@NYG, and especially with Christian Watson likely out), and J. Addison (@LV).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Calvin Ridley (@CLE). This one is pretty obvious. Ridley cooled off last week, and will almost certainly be without his starting QB for this one. Denzel Ward is expected back, and despite slipping on the road the last 2 weeks, the Browns’ D is still formidable and especially against the pass (3rd fewest FPPG allowed to WRs).
Other Fades:
Cooper Kupp (@BAL). I know he had a better game last week, but it feels like Nacua is now the #1 in LA, and the matchup is brutal. The Ravens allow the 2nd fewest FPPG to WRs, and have allowed just 6 TD catches by WRs, second only to the Jets.
Which leads me to Nico Collins (@NYJ). I’d start Collins - he’s been that hot lately, and so has his QB. No Tank Dell also means more targets. But the Jets are where passing games go to die, and especially when they’re at home. They’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to WRs, and just 3 WR TD catches on the year. Yikes.
Chris Godwin (@NO). He scored last week! Oh wait, it was on a rushing attempt. He didn't have any catches, and that conintues a trend of him struggling (no games with 60+ receiving yards in his last 6 outings). While we’re here, I’ll fade Tyler Lockett (@SF), who has 5 catches or less in 3 straight and is perhaps being passed by JSN in the pecking order.
Other WR Fades: Pit WRs (vs. NE), NE WRs (@PIT), and A. Thielen (@NO). Unless you like zeroes of course…
Repeat Message: Play the Swiss Army Knife
TE:
Elite options - Kelce, Hockenson, and LaPorta; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Taysom Hill (vs. CAR, assuming he is active). Honestly, Hill should be an elite option. And he’s made my Rides list perhaps more than any player this season. The Panthers are very weak against the run, and the Saints are going to start a backup QB. Those are 2 big reasons to love Hill this week. He isn’t really a TE, but he’s the TE5 on the season. Go figure. [NOTE: Hill (hand/wrist) has not practiced all week and is unlikely to play Sunday]
Other Rides:
Jake Ferguson (vs. PHI). Have I mentioned that the Eagles can’t stop the pass? They can’t, and Dallas is going to need to score a lot of points to win this one. Ferguson should be busy in this huge NFC East game.
Other TE1s (those ranked inside the Top 14 for the week) that I’ll Ride this week: G. Kittle (vs. SEA), C. Kmet (vs. DET) and D. Njoku (vs. JAC).
TE Sleeper of the Week: Gerald Everett (vs. DEN). Everett has been nothing special, even with all of the WR injuries that the Chargers have suffered. But the matchup is too good to pass up. Denver has allowed the most FPPG and yards to TEs, and the second most catches.
Other Sleepers:
Other TEs ranked outside the Top 15 that I’d consider this week, if you need help at the position, are: C. Otton (@ATL), D. Parham (@DEN), and T. Hudson (vs. IND).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Evan Engram (@CLE). He finally scored last week, but that was early in the game, with Trevor Lawrence still upright. I’m fading Jacksonville almost across the board this week, due to the QB situation, the defense they’re facing on the road, and the expected weather.
Other Fades:
Other TEs ranked inside the Top 18 that I’m lower on this week include K. Pitts (vs. TB), P. Freiermuth (vs. NE), and C. Okonkwo (@MIA).
PK and D/ST Streamers: See the Week 14 Waiver Wire Column, where I’ve listed the best streaming options: Waiver-wire-week-14 .
Good luck to all with your Week 14 matchups, and playoff push!
DH
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