Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 13
It Took 3 Months, But These 2 Cats are Roaring
(Published November 30, 2023, updated for injuries and weather Sunday, December 3, 2023)
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Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL and Fantasy Football seasons! The Fantasy playoffs are just around the corner, and unfortunately the NFL schedule is a major obstacle for a lot of fantasy managers. Six (6!) NFL teams are on Bye this week, including a few with some major fantasy producers on their roster. Six teams, in Week 13? Really? What gives, NFL? Don’t you care about fantasy football? Apparently not. If you did, you wouldn’t do this, plus you’d do us all a favor and relegate the fantasy wastelands known as the Panthers, Patriots, Giants, and Jets to some lower division. Anyway, Week 12 was very high scoring—a bountiful fantasy feast that was right in step with the Thanksgiving holiday. Week 13 isn’t likely to be anything like that, but hopefully you can navigate it and move into December in good shape for the fantasy playoffs. I’ll try to help.
*****WEEK 13 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: waiver-wire-week-13 *****
WEEK 12 Stats of the Week:
We’ve got some doozies this week, folks.
Running 2-year Bit: Every team in the NFC South is below .500.
On Monday night, the Bears became the first team this season to win a game without scoring a TD.
Also on Monday night, Justin Fields threw 21 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. He ended the game averaging 2.4 air yards per attempt and 1.9 air yards per completion, both career lows.
The Vikings have recorded less than 250 yards of offense in 2 games this year—both against Chicago.
The Giants scored 10 points, made 10 first downs, had 220 total yards, and won this week. The Bills scored 34 points, made 29 first downs, had 505 total yards, and lost this week.
At different points on Sunday, each of the 4 AFC Division leaders held the #1 playoff seed in the Conference. All 4 of them recorded wins in Week 12.
The Broncos allowed 70 points to Miami in Week 3. During their current 5 game winning streak, the Broncos have allowed a total of just 80 points.
Dallas has scored 30+ points in 6 straight home games, and has won all of its home games this season by at least 20 points.
Dak on Thanksgiving: 4-0 vs. NFC East teams, 0-3 vs. the rest of the league.
Cowboys’ rookie PK Brandon Aubrey is a perfect 21 for 21 on FGs, the longest such streak ever to start a career.
Travis Kelce has gotten to 11,000 career receiving yards in 154 games, the fastest ever for a TE (Tony Gonzalez, 191 games, is second fastest).
C.J. Stroud has recorded 4 straight 300 yard passing games, a rookie record.
Derrick Henry is the 8th player to eclipse 9,000 rushing yards and 80 rushing TDs in his first 8 seasons.
Mike Evans scored his 90th TD on Sunday, and that’s tied with Don Hutson for 6th most all-time in a player’s first 10 seasons.
The Panthers have fired their Head Coach in-season in each of the last 2 seasons, and 3 times in the last 5 years.
Frank Reich (11 games) is the fastest firing since the 49ers fired Pete McCulley after 9 games in 1978. Even Urban Meyer (13 games) lasted longer.
Jalen Hurts is 29-2 in his last 31 regular season games as a starter.
Hurts now has 11 games with multiple rushing TDs, the most all-time for a QB. Hurts is 25.
The Eagles are 5-0 this season when trailing at halftime, and the rest of the NFL is 35-129 in that situation. The Eagles have trailed at halftime in 4 straight games, but came back to win all 4 and that’s the longest such streak in NFL history.
Josh Allen is now 0-6 in OT for his career.
Allen now has 4 seasons with 8 or more rushing TDs, tied with Cam Newton for most all-time by a QB.
More QB rushing - Lamar Jackson is the 4th QB to reach 5,000 career rushing yards (M. Vick, C. Newton, R. Wilson). Jackson accomplished this feat in 84 games. The other 3 all needed at least 100 games to get to this milestone.
In their first game after firing OC Matt Canada, the Steelers totaled more than 400 yards of offense for the first time in their last 59 games.
Dating back to Week 11, the Jets played 6 consecutive quarters without converting a third down.
The Jets picked off 2 passes in the final 2 minutes of the first half on Friday (including a pick-6), and yet at halftime they trailed Miami by one more point than they did at the 2 minute warning. This seems impossible, but it happened.
The Jets’ offense has scored 41 points in the team’s last 5 games.
The Giants have not scored a TD on their opening possession in 20 straight games (the longest current streak in the league).
The Giants have 9 takeaways in their last 2 games (both wins).
T.J. Watt has 91 sacks in his first 98 career games. The only player with more sacks in his first 100 games was Reggie White, with 105. Sacks became an official stat in 1982.
Kyren Williams’s last 2 games played were both against the Cardinals (due to injury), and he had more than 150 scrimmage yards in both games.
Williams is the first player ever to amass 140 rushing yards, 60 receiving yards, 6+ catches, and multiple receiving TDs in a game. Sounds convoluted, but what a game in his return from injury.
Players with 11+ sacks in each of their first 3 seasons: Reggie White, Dwight Freeney, and now Micah Parsons.
Players with 1,300+ receiving yards and 10+ receiving TDs before December: Torry Holt (12 games, 2003), Tyreek Hill (11 games, 2023).
SF Efficiency: Brock Purdy leads all QBs with 9.4 yards per attempt, Brandon Aiyuk leads NFL pass catchers with 19.6 yards per catch, and George Kittle leads all TEs with 14.5 yards per catch.
The most accurate field goal kicker of all time (minimum 100 FG attempts) is now…Younghoe Koo, at exactly 90%. The top 5 kickers on the list are all active players.
WEEK 13 BYES: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG
**********SUNDAY INJURY AND WEATHER UPDATE**********
Weather Report: Rain is forecasted for a number of games in the northeast, but the ones that look like they’re sure to have rain for much of the game are: LAC@NE and ATL@NYJ. SF@PHI could have some lingering showers, especially during the first half.
Injury Report: (Note: Players on IR are not listed unless they’re eligible to be activated/return).
OUT: DTR (Joe Flacco gets the start), J. Taylor, A. Jones, J. McKinnon, K. Miller, D. Douglas, M. Thomas, R. Shaheed, M. Wilson, D. Schultz, H. Hurst
EXPECTED BACK: D. Achane, T. Higgins, K. Toney
DOUBTFUL: D. Goedert
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: B. Hall, T. Etienne, E. Elliott, K. Allen, T. Dell, C. Olave, M. Brown, N. Brown, T. Burks, T. McBride
QUESTIONABLE: J. Reed, C. Godwin
**********
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: MIA (29.75), DAL (27.5), HOU (25.25), DET (25), SF (24.75)
Bottom 5: CIN (15.25), CAR (15.75), NYJ (15.75), NE (16.75), GB (18)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BAL 2. SF 3. CLE 4. CAR 5. PIT
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. WAS 2. PHI 3. LAC 4. JAX 5. DET
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. SF 3. JAX 4. ATL 5. MIN
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. ARI 3. CAR 4. SEA 5. NYG
Top 5 vs WR: 1. NYJ 2. CLE 3. BAL 4. DAL 5. CAR
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PHI 2. WAS 3. LAC 4. TB 5. NYG
Top 5 vs TE: 1. TEN 2. CLE 3. SF 4. NE 5. KC
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. DEN 2. CIN 3. LAR 4. PHI 5. HOU
Week 13 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
INTRO
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, A.J. Brown, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Week 12 Rides, Fades and Sleepers were probably the strongest they’ve been all year. Nailed it, mostly. I’ll try to stay hot this week. You can check my work here: fantasy-preview-week-12 .
Purdy Heads to Philly for the Game of the Year
QB:
Elite options - Hurts, Prescott and Mahomes; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Tua (@WAS). Tua was a correct call for me as a Fade last week, as he had his worst game of the season at the Jets. This week, he’s a great candidate for a bounceback against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Commanders have allowed the most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs and the most TD passes (28) on the season. The only concerns here are the weather, and Miami running in a bunch of scores.
Other Rides:
Brock Purdy (@PHI). He’s another QB coming off a down week in a lopsided win, who should rebound. The 49ers will need to score, and Philly has allowed the second most FPPG and passing TDs (23) to QBs. Ride the bounce backs.
Trevor Lawrence (vs. CIN). Lawrence is finally playing at the level we all expected (25+ fantasy points in each of his last 2 games), and this week he’s at home and gets a reeling Bengals team that’s falling out of contention and may be losing the will to fight. Ride the hot hand here.
Here are a few QB1s (ranked down to QB13) that I think will outperform this week: R. Wilson (@HOU), S. Howell (@MIA), and K. Murray (@PIT).
QB Sleeper of the Week: Kenny Pickett (vs. ARI). This might be the first time all season I’ve recommended Pickett. He has just 6 TD passes on the season which is atrocious, but the offense looked better last week, and this week they get a Cardinals team that just got torched by Matt Stafford for 4 TDs. Arizona is bottom 10in FPPG yielded to QBs. If you need a Bye week replacement, consider streaming Pickett.
Other Sleepers: It’s a tough week for QB sleepers, as a lot of lower ranked players have tougher matchups. If you’re stuck, here are the best of worst: W. Levis (vs. IND), B. Young (@TB) and B. Mayfield (@CAR). I don’t really like any of these plays, but desperate times and all that. And if you want to have some long shot fun in DFS (but don’t you dare do this in a season-long league - I won’t speak to you for a month at least), consider Tim Boyle (vs. ATL). The Falcons allow the 7th most FPPG to QBs, and the Jets might struggle to run the ball.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Geno Smith (@DAL). Smith has put up better fantasy numbers of late, but I don’t like where this game is likely headed. Dallas has been a house of horrors for visiting QBs all year, and I don’t see that changing on Thursday night. Find another option if you can.
Other Fades:
Jared Goff (@NO). I’m having trouble trusting Goff on the road this week, against a pretty solid defense that’s Top 10 vs. QBs.
Derek Carr (vs. DET). Staying in the same game, the Lions are officially on fraud watch and the reason is that their defense can no longer stop anyone, and especially through the air. The problem for Carr is that his entire WR corps is hurt. 15 check downs to Kamara probably won’t equate to a great fantasy day, and then there’s the pesky Taysom Hill problem. I’m out on Carr this week.
Matt Stafford (vs. CLE). If Myles Garrett misses this game, I’ll feel better about rolling with Stafford. The Browns weren't as stout last week but it’s still a nasty pass defense, and outside of last week Stafford has mostly been mediocre at best this season.
I know it’s a tough week, but I’d avoid these guys in a Superflex (or God forbid, as a QB1) if at all possible: NE QBs (vs. LAC), CLE QBs (@LAR), D. Ridder (@NYJ), and J. Browning (@JAC).
Kamara Receptions in Week 13—Bet the Over
RB:
Elite options - CMC and Etienne; the analysis starts below these 2.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Alvin Kamara (vs. DET). The Lions were a nasty matchup for RBs earlier in the season but they’ve been more vulnerable of late. With the Saints very banged up at WR, Kamara should see double digit targets this week, so in any kind of PPR format he should be in for a huge week. He’s a Top 3 play this week.
Other Rides:
Kyren Williams (vs. CLE). I know it’s the Browns, but there are a few reasons to ride the hot hand here: Cleveland is easier to run on than to throw on (and Denver had some rushing success on them last week), WIlliams immediately went back to elite usage, and Williams is a very skilled back.
Rachaad White (vs. CAR). There are some nice converging trends here. White has been getting it done and is the RB5 over the last 5 weeks. He’s dominating RB touches for the Bucs. And last but certainly not least, the Panthers have been the most RB-friendly defense of them all. They’ve allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs and the most rushing TDs (16) to the position.
Raheem Mostert (@WAS). The RB2 on the season, and the guy who trails only CMC with 15 TDs on the year, is ranked outside the Top 10 this week. Say what? Well, that reflects an expectation that Devon Achane is going to return, but I’ll ride Mostert regardless. He’s a TD machine, and this could be a back-and-forth kind of game.
Derrick Henry (vs. IND). Henry is a little bit TD-or-bust now, but he’s still getting most of the work and always gets the short yardage work. The Colts have been gettable (6th most FPPG allowed to RBs, and 11 rushing TDs to the position). I think Henry finds paydirt at least once this week.
Moving down to RB2s (those ranked 13-25 this week), here are the ones I think have the best chance to outperform: R. Stevenson (vs. LAC), J. Warren and N. Harris (vs. ARI), Z. Moss (@TEN), J. Conner (@PIT), and D. Singletary (vs. DEN).
RB Sleeper of the Week: Devon Achane (@WAS). He’s ranked as the RB40 this week, and I get it if you’re gun shy after his first failed return from injury 2 weeks ago. There’s real risk in starting him. There’s also real risk in benching him if he’s active, as he’s the most explosive RB in the league, going against a terrible defense. I’ll roll the dice.
Other Sleepers:
Zach Charbonnet (@DAL). It’s another bad matchup, and he disappointed vs. the 49ers last week, but volume is volume. If you need a Flex this week, I think he’s got an OK floor, with Ken Walker likely out again.
Here are a few more lower-ranked RBs that I think you can roll with, if you’re in need: A.J. Dillon (vs. KC), S. Perine (@HOU), R. Dowdle (vs. SEA), and a longer shot (and DFS flier)—D. Johnson (vs. CIN). And if Achane is a scratch, J. Wilson (@WAS).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Joe Mixon (@JAC). You’re probably not sitting Mixon if you have him, but it’s tough to get excited about anyone in this offense with Joe Burrow out. The matchup is also a problem. The Jaguars have allowed the third fewest FPPG and the fewest rushing yards to RBs, and just 2 rushing TDs to running backs on the season.
Other Fades:
Breece Hall (vs. ATL, if he is able to play). Speaking of tempering expectations, you’ve also got to do that with Hall this week. Atlanta has quietly been one of the top run defenses in the NFL this year, and they’re the only team that has yet to allow an RB to score a rushing TD. They’ve allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs. Start Hall (if he is active), and hope he breaks a long one, but know what you’re in for.
D’Andre Swift (vs. SF). And we’ve got our trifecta of bad matchups. The 49ers allow the 2nd fewest FPPG to RBs and have allowed the fewest total yards to the position. Throw in that Swift shares the rushing work with other RBs and elite goal-line back Jalen Hurts, and Swift is a tough sell this week.
Fade the CAR RBs. They’re sharing the work, and Tampa is another very stingy run defense (6h fewest FPPG allowed to the position, and just 2 rushing TDs allowed to RBs on the year).
Mike Evans is Proving He’s Still Elite
WR:
Elite options - Here are the top 6 WRs this season (total fantasy points): T. Hill, K. Allen, C. Lamb, S. Diggs, A.J. Brown, and A. St. Brown. That plus Justin Jefferson is a big group, but from this point forward, as long as they’re healthy and their current QBs are also upright, I won’t be discussing them. They’re all matchup-proof, no brainer weekly starts. Yes, they can all put up pedestrian weeks, but honestly, there’s no insight needed. My weekly analysis starts below this septet.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: Calvin Ridley (vs. CIN). Ridley has put up 2 huge weeks in a row, and that has coincided with Zay Jones returning to the lineup. Clearly, the presence of another talented outside receiver is helping Ridley, so let’s let it ride. Ridley’s line over the past 2 weeks is 12-192-3, which makes him the WR1 in that span. He’s ranked outside the Top 10 this week and that’s too low for me.
Other Rides:
Mike Evans (vs. CAR). Evans is one of several older receivers who is proving he’s still got plenty left. He’s also the best red zone receiver in the game. Ride the hot hand.
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel (@PHI). I think they’ll both be busy in a game where the 49ers should have success attacking Philadelphia’s secondary. The Eagles continue to struggle against the pass, and have allowed the most FPPG and second most TD catches (17) to WRs.
Michael Pittman (@TEN). He should again be heavily targeted, and it’s a plus matchup.
Jaylen Waddle (@WAS). It’s been a little hard to trust Waddle, who has been way more of a WR2 than a WR1b to Tyreek Hill this season. Hill will get his, but there should be enough to go around against the NFL’s worst pass defense. The Commanders have allowed the second most FPPG to WRs, and the most TD catches (18) to the position.
Courtland Sutton (@HOU). If it’s not broken, don’t fix it. Sutton has been a TD machine of late, is developing great rapport with Russell WIlson, and is consistently winning contested catches. Sutton has found the end zone in 5 of the last 6 games for the red-hot Broncos, so let’s stay on him.
More WR2s (those ranked 13-25) that I like this week: D. Johnson (vs. ARI), D. Hopkins (vs. IND), and a bounceback for A. Thielen (@TB).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Rashee Rice (@GB). He barely qualifies as a sleeper after his breakout game last week, but he’s still a somewhat risky play given the inconsistent usage for all Kansas City receivers, and it’s not the best matchup. I like Rice as a low-end WR2 or WR3/Flex play this week.
Other Sleepers:
Josh Downs (@TEN). He’s been scratching the surface of his talent for weeks now. In a shorthanded week, he’s definitely worth considering in one of your back-end WR or Flex spots.
Brandin Cooks (v. SEA). After a very slow start to the season, he’s got a TD in 2 of the last 3 games, and at least 40 yards in each of those contests. He should be in for another decent game this week. The Cowboys ALWAYS score at least 30 at home, so there’s a lot of fantasy goodness to go around.
Jayden Reed (vs. KC, assuming he plays). He’s another riser who is producing decent fantasy totals (and making my Sleepers list) on a weekly basis. Soon, he won’t qualify as a Sleeper any more. The rushing usage is a plus, and with Aaron Jones likely out again, he should get some extra touches.
Here are a few more WRs ranked outside the Top 35 that I think you can consider this week: C. Samuel (vs. MIA), D. Douglas (vs. LAC, IF he can clear the concussion protocol), G. Dortch (@PIT), A.T. Perry (vs. DET), and Z. Jones (vs. CIN). Perry is a nice DFS dart throw. [NOTE: Douglas is OUT]
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Ja’Maar Chase (@JAC). There, I said it. I had Chase as a Fade last week and while he did manage 81 yards on 4 catches, it’s going to be hard to trust him going forward, and I wouldn’t expect many huge games from him. He’s not an automatic start right now, although you need a pretty decent option to bench him.
Other Fades:
Drake London (@NYJ). It’s been a tough hang for London for most of this season, and a date with the Jets’ secondary isn’t going to make it any better. Pass.
Cooper Kupp (vs. CLE). Is a blowup game coming? Maybe, but Kupp clearly isn’t 100% and after his dismal outings the last 2 weeks (he’s the WR 90 over those 2 games), he’s hard to trust and especially vs. the Browns, who have shut down opposing WRs all season long. Only the Jets allow fewer FPPG to the position.
More Fades: C. Godwin (vs. CAR), T. Lockett (@DAL), and A. Cooper (@LAR).
Get Schultz Into Your Lineups This Week
TE:
Elite options - Kelce, Kittle and LaPorta; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Dalton Schultz (vs. DEN). He only has 3 catches in his last 2 games, and is definitely trending in the wrong direction. I’m feeling a bounceback game. The Broncos are playing much better defense these days but the big exception to that is the TE spot. They’ve struggled all year in this area and have allowed the most (or tied for the most) catches, yards, TDs (6), and FPPG to the position. I think Stroud will try to involve Schultz early and often. [NOTE: Schultz came up with a hamstring injury during practice this week and is OUT]
Other Rides:
David Njoku (@LAR). We don’t yet know who the QB will be for the Browns this week but it might not matter. Njoku has been the most targeted player on the team in the last month, and has a solid floor of at least 8 fantasy points in each of his last 6 games. More good news: The Rams have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to the position. [NOTE: Joe Flacco gets the start for the Browns!]
Taysom Hill AND Juwan Johnson. It’s rare that you’ll ever see me (or anyone else) recommend 2 TEs from the same team in the same week. I mean, maybe you saw it when Gronk and Aaron Hernandez were playing. But this week, 2 Saints TEs are ranked between TE7 and TE12 and I think they can both give you that kind of week, or better. Taysom will do his usual Taysom things, and with so many Saints’ WRs hurt, Johnson should get a nice share of targets.
Pat Freiermuth (vs. ARI). OK, I’ll jump on the bandwagon. While last week’s monster performance seemingly came out of nowhere, don’t forget that Freiermuth caught 60+ balls in each of his first 2 seasons. If firing Matt Canada means getting him more involved, then great. Ride the hot hand.
TE Sleeper of the Week: Hunter Henry (vs. LAC). I had trouble finding TE sleepers this week, so I’m going with a guy who didn’t have a catch last week. The Pats are a mess, and might again play 2 QBs. They also might be without their current WR1 (Pop Douglas), who is in the concussion protocol. I think Henry might surprise with a throwback game (of sorts) vs. his old team. What you’re really hoping for if you have to start him is a lucky TD.
Other Sleepers:
If you’re desperate (and many people are this week), I’d look at C. Otton (vs. CAR) or T. Kraft (vs. KC).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Kyle Pitts (@NYJ). Pitts as the Fade of the Week - feels like old times! He’s easily been my most frequently listed Fade of the Week (at any position) since I started writing this column in 2021, his rookie year. The numbers don’t lie. DaRon Bland has more TDs in his 11 game career than Pitts has in 3 seasons. I mean, come on. The Jets have allowed 6 TDs to the position, which is tied for most in the league, but I’ll fade the disappointing Pitts nonetheless.
Other Fades:
Jake Ferguson (vs. SEA). It’s very tempting to ride him, and Dallas will score plenty of points, but he’s seen a big dip in usage the last few weeks, and it’s not a great matchup. SEA has allowed just one TD pass to a TE all season.
Gerald Everett (@NE). He scored last week, and with injuries to several WRs the Chargers need him. But I don’t like the matchup this week. New England has allowed the 4th fewest FPPG and the 2nd fewest receiving yards to TEs, and just one TD on the season.
Tyler Higbee (vs. CLE). If you started Higbee last week, congratulations! You got awfully lucky with 2 first quarter TDs. Don’t press your luck this week against the Browns. They’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG to TEs, and outside of this past week Higbee has mostly been unstartable this season.
PK and D/ST Streamers: A lot of you might need to stream at these positions this week. My Week 13 PK and D/ST streamers are listed in the Week 13 Waiver Wire Column. Follow this link: waiver-wire-week-13 .
Good luck to all in Week 13!
DH
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