Pigskin Papers: 2023 Waiver Wire Week 16
Baker And The Bucs Are Flying High!
(Published December 18, 2023)
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Welcome to Week 16, and for most leagues, Round 2 of the Fantasy Football Playoffs! If you’ve made it this far, congratulations! It’s late in the NFL season and just about every player is dinged up to some degree. Injuries continue to mount, and might impact your lineup this coming week. The waiver wire can help. There aren’t a lot great names out there this week, but a few points here and there can be the difference between advancing to the Championship, and a very sad exit
NOTE: In past weeks, I’ve given a lot of advice on players to stash. That’s not much of a consideration now, so the focus today is on players you can plug in this week, if you’re in need. Matchups matter as much as ever, so for each player listed, I’m indicating his team’s Week 16 opponent. I’m also listing the top players at each position whose injury status for Week 16 bears monitoring. OK - Let’s jump in!
The Process: Each week, I try to identify the top Waiver Wire targets and evaluate the short and long term prospects of those players. I also do my best to reveal which players who are coming off a big week are fool’s gold. Finally, I endeavor to find streamers who might help you in a pinch. Note that this advice is primarily intended for Season-Long leagues, and NOT Dynasty leagues.
Some of the players I’ll talk about won’t be available in your league. As a general rule, I list players who are available in more than 50% of leagues. But what does that even mean? A 10 team league with 6 bench spots will have a much larger free agent pool than a 14 team league with 8 bench spots. Most leagues fall somewhere in between. This isn’t “one size fits all.”
Minshew Mania Is Back!
Week 16 Waiver Wire:
QB:
Injury Watch: T. Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, G. Smith (also W. Levis and T. DeVito)
Baker Mayfield (vs. JAC). I’ve listed Baker almost every week for the past 2 months. If he’s out there, and you need a QB this week, he’s a great add. He just lit up the Packers (29 fantasy points), has double digit fantasy points in 9 straight games (and 19 or more in 5 of those), has great weapons, and gets a reeling Jaguars’ defense this week.
Mayfield is not all that widely available at this point—I guess someone is reading my column! I’ll list 4 more QBs who are all more than 50% available on most of the major platforms, who can all slot in if you’re stuck this week. I like them in this order: Gardner Minshew (@ATL, who has surrendered the 9th most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs (I like him better if Michael Pittman can return)), Jake Browning (@PIT, who just gave up 3 TDs to Minshew, mostly without Pittman), Joe Flacco (@HOU, and he is not afraid to throw 45 passes per game), and Derek Carr (@LAR in a decent matchup).
If you’re desperate for a QB2 in a Superflex: Nick Mullens (vs. DET, who put it together last week but has been an awful pass defense for the last month), and Trevor Siemien (vs. WAS, and that’s assuming he starts, and only because it’s the commanders and their pass defense, which ranks 31st or 32nd in almost every statistical category).
McKinnon Is Heating Up In December, Again
RB:
Injury Watch: J. Jacobs, I. Pacheco, Z. Moss, R. Stevenson, Brian Robinson
CEH (LV). This all depends on the availability of Pacheco, but given how early he was ruled out this past week, and that the Chiefs don’t really need to rush him back for this home tilt, I think it’s a decent bet that we get one more week of Clyde as the lead back. He’s coming off his best game of the season and it’s a favorable matchup. I prefer him over Jerick McKinnon, but he’s also coming off a big game and could be reprising his amazing December from last year as he’s now scored in 2 straight. Plus, he’s less impact ed Pacheco returns. If you’re in a pinch, you could do much worse.
Zamir White (@KC). This is another case where we don’t know for sure about the status of the starter. White put up a nice game with Jacobs out, albeit against a defense that never got off the team plane, and got thoroughly embarrassed. He’s worth adding if you need an RB, but if Jacobs is back you shouldn’t play him.
Justice Hill (@SF). Unlike most of the other RBs listed in this section, Hill is almost certain to have a decent role this week, due to the unfortunate season-ending injury to Keaton Mitchell. It’s still a committee with Gus Edwards, but Hill had some success earlier this season when it was just a 2-headed backfield. The matchup is a tough one, as the 49ers have allowed he fewest rushing yards and second fewest FPPG to RBs. The Week 17 matchup (MIA) isn’t all that great either.
Chase Brown (@PIT). Brown has carved out a nice, reliable role behind starter Joe Mixon. He’s averaged 10 touches over the last 3 games, and he looks fast when he gets the rock. If you’re desperate for a second RB or even a Flex, he has some upside.
Trey Sermon (@ATL). I can’t really recommend this one, for 3 reasons: first, I think Zack Moss will probably return, second, it’s a bad matchup and third, Sermon has never shown much in his career, although he had a decent game Sunday. Still, if Moss ends up being out, volume is volume and he should get the majority of the touches.
Noah Brown Steps Up Again For The Texans
WR:
Injury Watch: Tyreek Hill, J. Chase, M. Pittman, C. Watson, N. Collins, C. Olave, J. Reed, Z. Jones
OBJ (@SF) is now rostered above 50% on most major platforms. He’s a solid pickup if available. The matchup this week isn’t ideal, but he’s been productive the last few weeks.
The 3 WRs I like the most this week (who should be available in more than 50% of leagues) are, in this order: Noah Brown (vs. CLE), Curtis Samuel (@NYJ, he’s been a favorite of this column for over a month, but the matchup this week is a tough one), and Tyler Boyd (@PIT, and this is assuming Ja’Marr Chase is out this week).
If these players aren’t available and you’re in need of a WR to stream this week as a WR3 or Flex, the next group I’d consider is: J. Palmer (vs. BUF), D. Wicks (@CAR, and especially if both Watson and Reed are out this week), R. Shahid (@LAR, and like so many others, the strength of the play is dependent on the availability of another player (in this case, C. Olave)), Jameson WIlliams (@MIN), and both Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson (@PHI).
TE:
Injury Watch: H. Henry
Hunter Henry (@DEN). Wait…he’s on the injury watch list and the pickups list? Yes. He’s come to life the last 2 weeks with 3 TDs, and this week New England faces the defense that’s allowed the second most catches, yards, and FPPG to TEs.
If you’re desperate (you shouldn’t be, TE is kind of deep these days), you can consider G. Everett (vs. BUF), and C. Otton (vs. JAC).
PK Streamers, Week 16: M. Badgley (@MIN), M. Gay (@ATL), W. Lutz (vs. NE), and C. Santos (vs. ARI)
D/ST Streamers, Week 16: GB (@CAR), SEA (@TEN), and CIN (@PIT).
Good luck with your waiver claims, and playoff matchups!
DH
***This column (Waiver Wire) appears each Monday, and the Weekly Fantasy Preview each Thursday. Please bookmark the site and come back often. You can also follow on Social Media - on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). I appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
