Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 15
The Boys Are Back In Town
(Published December 14, 2023, updated for injuries an weather December 17, 2023)
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Welcome to Week 15, and the Fantasy Football Playoffs! If you’ve got a Bye this week, sit back, relax, and pray that your players don’t get hurt. If you’re competing this week, good luck moving on. I’ll try to help you to get that win that lets you advance. If you missed the playoffs but still stopped by to read my column, bravo, and I appreciate you! It’s been a fun season so far. Or maybe it hasn't been that fun. QB injuries have been plentiful and brutal, and injuries at other positions have been similar to recent years which also borders on brutal. If you need some lineup help this week due to injuries, definitely keep reading, and also see my Week 15 Waivers column: Waiver Wire Week 15.
WEEK 15 BYES: at long last, NONE
WEEK 14 STATS OF THE WEEK:
Endless running bit: No team in the NFC South is above .500.
On the flip side, every AFC North team is above .500.
13 of the NFL’s 32 teams are either 7-6 or 6-7. Parity!
8 underdogs won outright in Week 14, the highest number for the season.
The Patriots won on Thursday, but were nonetheless eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday. It’s their earliest playoff elimination since the 2000 season.
The Jets and Texans reached halftime at 0-0, which was the first scoreless first half since 2019. Would we have to wait 4 more years for this to happen again? NOPE! A mere 3 hours later, the Raiders and Vikings also reached halftime scoreless, and they weren’t even close to being finished not scoring.
The Raiders and Vikings were still tied 0-0 after 57 minutes of game time had elapsed. The last time a game went that long without any points being scored was 80 years ago, and that was also the NFL’s last scoreless tie—a thrilling 1943 tilt between the Giants and Lions (Notes: There was no OT in 1943, and a big chunk of the NFL’s starting players were away fighting WW2).
Vikings 3, Raiders 0 was the third 3-0 final since the 1970 merger, and the first since 2007.
Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito has now won 3 games as a starting QB in his rookie season. That’s tied for the most ever by an undrafted rookie QB. This is the first fun story in the NY sports scene in several years…one more win and we’ll have Linsanity, Round 2.
The Steelers just lost back-to-back games to teams with a 2-10 record. That’s a first. Even worse, both games were at home and all of this happened in a 5 day stretch of abject futility.
In their 3 games played since the Steelers fired embattled OC Matt Canada, they’ve yet to score more than 18 points.
Jake Browning has a 79.3% completion percentage across his first 3 NFL starts. That’s the highest by any QB across his first 3 career starts since at least 1950, which is when completion percentage was tracked for the first time.
The Titans are the first team since the 1976 Raiders to win a game in regulation after trailing by 14 or more points with less than 3 minutes left. Or put another way, the Dolphins are the first team since the 1976 Steelers to blow such a game.
Dallas has won 15 straight home games, the longest streak in the NFL.
The Cowboys have scored at least 17 first half points in 7 straight games. The last team to do that was the 2007 Patriots, who went undefeated, got to the Super Bowl, and you know the rest.
Since their loss to the Eagles in Week 9, the Cowboys are 5-0, and they’re averaging a whopping 40.2 points per game during that winning streak.
Brandon Aubrey is a perfect 30 for 30 on FGs to start his career (the longest such streak ever, by a decent margin) and he also became the first kicker to hit 2 FGs from 59 yards or longer in the same game. Both kicks looked like they would’ve been good from 70.
Dak Prescott is on pace to become the first QB in the Super Bowl era to lead the league in passing TDs a year after leading the league in INTs thrown.
Getting sick of hearing about the Cowboys? One more: Over the course of the last 2 games and excluding a kneel-down possession to end Week 13, the 49ers and Cowboys combined to score 9 TDs and 1 FG against the Eagles’ defense over a series of 10 possessions.
Josh Allen now has 10 rushing TDs and 25 passing TDs on the season. He joins Kyler Murray (2020) and Cam Newton (2015) as the only QBs to hit those thresholds in the same season.
Brock Purdy has completed at least 70% of his passes in 7 straight games. Only 3 other QBs have ever done that: Drew Brees, Joe Montana, and Sam Bradford.
Deebo Samuel is the second player in NFL history to have at least 100 receiving yards, plus at least one rushing and receiving TD, in back-to-back games (Eagles RB Timmy Brown, 1960).
Weather Report: ATL@CAR is the worst forecast on the board, with rain all game and moderate to heavy winds. BAL@JAC might also be pretty windy, but much of the rain should be gone. NYJ@MIA looks to have moderate winds. CHI@CLE may have some rain.
Injury Report: Check back over the weekend, as there are a lot of iffy players this week. Note - players on IR are not listed unless they’re eligible to return. FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE***
OUT: C.J. Stroud, I. Pacheco, R. Stevenson, Brian Robinson, E. Mitchell, K. Miller
QUESTIONABLE/DOUBTFUL: N. Collins, C. Watson, T. Atwell
STARTING: C. Keenum
QUESTIONABLE/EXPECTED TO PLAY: A. Jones, Jam. Williams, D.J. Moore, M. Brown, B. Cooks, C. Godwin, N. Brown, M. Wilson, D. Waller
QUESTIONABLE/GTD: G. Smith, D. Achane, A.J. Dillon, Tyreek Hill, C. Olave, JuJu
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: SF (31), LAR (28.25), BUF (26.5), DET (26.25), PHI (25.5)
Bottom 5: NE (14.5), NYJ (14.75), LAC (15.75), NYG (16), CAR (16.25)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BAL 2. NYJ 3. SF 4. CAR 5. CLE
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. WAS 2. PHI 3. JAX 4. DET 5. LAC
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. SF 3. MIN 4. DAL 5. BAL
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. ARI 3. CAR 4. IND 5. SEA
Top 5 vs WR: 1. NYJ 2. BAL 3. NO 4. CLE 5. ATL
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PHI 2. WAS 3. LAC 4. NYG 5. TB
Top 5 vs TE: 1. TEN 2. SF 3. NE 4. KC 5. NYG
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. CIN 2. DEN 3. LAR 4. NO 5. PHI
Week 15 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
INTRO
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Allen, CMC, CeeDee Lamb, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers took a slight step back last week, after a couple of very strong weeks. I still had a good week. You can check my work here: fantasy-preview-week-14.
Lamar Keeps Rolling
QB:
Elite options - Allen, Prescott, and Hurts; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Matthew Stafford (vs. WAS). Stafford is ranked outside the Top 5 this week and I have him as a Top 5 play. We’ve got some great converging trends here. The entire Rams offense is on fire right now. Stafford is coming off back to back games with almost 25 fantasy points and that was against the Browns and Ravens, which both have top 3 overall defenses. Now he gets the Commanders, who’ve allowed 45 points in back to back games to Dallas and Miami, and who have allowed the second most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs and the most TD passes in the NFL (30). This is an absolute smash spot for Stafford. I’d play him over every QB other than the 3 elite options listed above.
Other Rides:
I’ll lump Lamar Jackson (@JAC) and Brock Purdy (@ARI) together, as both are ranked inside the Top 5 as they should be. There isn’t a whole lot to say for either one and if you’ve got them, you’re obviously playing them, and it doesn't matter that they’re on the road. Both have plus matchups (ARI and Jax have allowed the 3rd and 7th most FPPG to QBs, respectively), and are crushing it of late.
A couple of other QBs ranked inside the Top 15 this week who I think should outperform are J. Love (vs. TB, which has been a pass funnel defense and has allowed the 6th most FPPG to QBs), and R. Wilson (@DET, whose defense has really fallen apart over the last month, and especially its pass defense). Fun fact - the Lions have allowed at least 25 points in 5 straight games.
QB Sleeper of the Week: Geno Smith (vs. PHI). Geno is ranked outside the Top 20 this week and I have to assume that the reason for that is the groin injury he suffred in practice on Thursday and which kept him out of last week’s game. He’s got an extra day to heal up and if he can go, I like the converging trends of his last game at Dallas, where he was the QB1 on the week (31 points), and Philadelphia’s reeling defense, which has allowed the most FPPG to QBs, and 29 passing TDs on the season which trails only the Commanders. But keep an eye on the practice reports, and only start Geno if all signs point to him playing. Waiting for Monday night can be tricky.
Other Sleepers:
A couple of QBs ranked between 16 and 25 who I like this week, if you need them: B. Mayfield (@GB, who just got carved up by Tommy DeVito), J. Browning (vs. MIN), and J. Flacco (vs. CHI).
If you’re really stuck in a Superflex, and need to go deeper, I think you can consider W. Levis (vs. HOU), and (gulp) Z. Wilson (@MIA), although in both cases I hate chasing one good game and wouldn’t feel great about rolling them out. If Geno can’t go, D. Lock is a viable sleeper play and cheaper DFS option.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Tua (vs. Jets). I’m no Tua hater—I’ve had him as a Ride plenty of times this season, and hey, I’m a Dolphins fan. I’m trying to figure out why he’s ranked inside the Top 10 this week. Have the rankers not seen what the Jets have done to pretty much every high-end QB they’ve faced? Add C.J. Stroud to the list. It’s a list Tua is already on—in the Black Friday meeting at the Medowlands, Miami won easily but he had his worst fantasy output of the season. When you factor in that Tyreek might miss the game (or play at less than 100%), and that it’s supposed to be windy with some rain mixed in, I’d honestly look elsewhere if you can. The Jets’ D is where passing games go to die. They’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG to QBs and the fewest to WRs, and Miami’s passing game goes through its WRs.
Other Fades:
Patrick Mahomes (@NE). This might be the first time I’ve listed Mahomes as a Fade in 3 years, and I don’t feel good about it. You’re starting him if you have him, and he always has a solid floor. Just don’t expect a vintage Mahomes game. The Pats’ D has been very stingy of late. Over their last 4 games they’ve allowed a total of just 44 points, and they’ll be at home for this one. On the flip side, the Chiefs haven’t looked like themselves in a while, and the lack of talent at the WR position is really starting to be a problem. If they’re again without Isiah Pacheco, I’ll like their entire offense even less this week.
Trevor Lawrence (@BAL). Lawrence ended up having a pretty good game at Cleveland last week, on a gimpy ankle. The going gets even tougher this week, at the Ravens, who’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to WRs and the fewest passing TDs on the Season (13). Matt Stafford did well against them last week but he and his offense are fully healthy right now. You can’t say the same for the Jaguars. Lawrence is definitely not an auto-start in this matchup.
I won’t bother listing the obvious dumpster fire QBs to avoid. If you’re digging for a viable QB2, I’d prefer not to start D. Ridder (@CAR), and despite his recent success, T. DeVito (@NO).
Will King Henry Feast on the Texans Again?
RB:
Elite options this week are the Top 4 ranked RBs for the week: CMC, Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, and Kyren Williams; the analysis starts below these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Derrick Henry (vs. HOU). He’s ranked just outside the Top 10 RBs this week and that’s too low for Mr. December. The Texans have improved their run defense this year, and are a middle of the pack unit vs. RBs. Still, I can’t ignore Henry’s ridiculous history against them. In 3 of his last 4 outings against the Texans, Henry has gone for more than 200 yards on the ground. I don’t expect that kind of total this week, but this is typically his time of the year, and he’s scored 2 TDs in 3 straight games. While it might seem like it’s been a down season for the King, he’s a Top 5 RB through 14 weeks—which is right where his ADP was. He’s a good play in any game where the game script isn’t too negative, and it should be OK this week and especially with the Texans so banged up on offense.
Other Rides:
David Montgomery (vs. DEN). The Denver defense has improved as much as any team’s since early in the season, but they’ve still allowed the most FPPG to RBs on the season, and are way more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. I think you’ll see plenty of Montgomery on Sunday. Last week’s game was the first of the season that he finished, and didn’t score. He’ll find the end zone this week.
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. KC). I’m assuming Stevenson misses another game. Zeke struggled on the ground at Pittsburgh, but he destroyed the Steelers as a pass catcher (7-72-1) and the usage and volume (29 touches) was elite. Zeke is ranked outside the Top 15 RBs this week and I have him as a Top 12 (RB1) play. The KC defense is good, but you saw what James Cook did to them last week. Speaking of which…
James Cook (vs. DAL). In the 3 games since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey as OC, Cook has seen much better passing game volume, and the result has been 2 weekly Top 10 finishes and 2 receiving TDs. He’s ranked as the RB21 this week and I like him for a Top 15 finish.
A few more RB1s and 2s that I especially like this week are R. White (@GB), Z. Moss (vs. PIT), B. Hall (@MIA), D. Achane (vs. NYJ), and J. Ford (vs. CHI).
RB Sleeper of the Week: Ty Chandler (@CIN). I’m not expecting Alexander Mattison to play this week, which opens the door for Chandler to get plenty of opportunities, against a so-so run defense. Chandler hasn’t done that much with his chances so far, but volume is volume.
Other Sleepers:
Keaton Mitchell (@JAC). Mitchell has yet to get more than 9 carries or 2 receptions in a game, so I get it if you don’t want to trust him with your season on the line. He’s also averaging a ludicrous 8.5 yards per carry and is always a threat to break a big play. Jacksonville has an above average run defense, but on the whole their defense has really struggled the last 2 weeks and I could see Mitchell getting a little more work in this one and making the most of it. But yes, it’s a risky play and I’d only Flex him if you’re either stuck, or need to swing for the fences in your matchup.
Here are some other RBs ranked outside the Top 30 this week who I think you can consider if you’re desperate: A. Gibson (@LAR), C. Brown (vs. MIN), and J. McKinnon (@NE). And if Josh Jacobs doesn’t sit up, Z. White (vs. LAC) is an OK option against a bottom-6 Chargers’ run defense.
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: James Conner (vs. SF). Conner is coming off his best game of the season, a 2-TD effort at the Steelers before the Bye. So it’s tempting to ride him this week, but I’d think about it. The 49ers have allowed the 2nd fewest FPPG to RBs and by far the fewest rushing yards, which is partly a result of negative game scripts for their opponents. The 49ers’ defense is a bit banged up, and Conner has an OK floor and should catch some passes, but other than that Steelers game he hasn't done much in the last month.
Other Fades:
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet (vs. PHI). Both players were coming off of injuries this past week and the result was a pretty even split. I think you’ll see that again this week against the Eagles, who’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to RBs on the season. The result is a hard pass for both.
CEH (@NE). The Patriots have been a very tough matchup for opposing RBs of late (on the season they’re top 10 in fewest FPPG allowed to RBs), and CEH isn’t showing much juice and didn’t do a lot with his starting opportunity last week. You’re only considering him if Pacheco is out again, but if that’s the case, I prefer McKinnon.
More Fades: HOU RBs (@TEN), A.J. Dillon (vs. TB).
DK Scores Again
WR:
Elite options - Hill, Chase, A.J. Brown, Lamb; the analysis starts below these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Rides of the Week: Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (vs. WAS). It’s a 2-for-1! Read what I wrote above about Matthew Stafford. The Rams’ passing game should soar against an atrocious defense that has allowed the second most FPPG, and the most receiving yards, to opposing WRs. There should be enough to go around for both of these WRs. Kupp was back to looking like his old self last week.
Other Rides:
D.K. Metcalf (vs. PHI). Metcalf found the end zone for the 4th time in 2 games last week, before he got ejected late in the game. If he can control himself and stay in this game, he should enjoy success against an Eagles’ defense that’s allowed the most FPPG and receiving TDs (23) to opposing WRs, and that’ll be true regardless of who the Seattle QB is. He’s ranked outside the Top 10 this week and I have him as a Top 10 play.
Two more WR1s (those ranked inside the Top 12) that I think are smash plays this week are D. Samuel (@ARI) and M. Pittman (vs. PIT).
I like a bunch of WRs in the WR2 range (ranked 13-24 this week). They include: B. Aiyuk (@ARI), D. Hopkins (vs. HOU), C. Sutton (@DET, and he just keeps scoring TDs), G. Wilson (@MIA, and note, he saw 14 targets last week with Zach Wilson back under center), and Z. Flowers (@JAC).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Jayden Reed (vs. TAM). I expect Christian Watson to miss at least one more game, and Reed has benefitted every time he’s been out of the lineup. Reed led all Packers in targets and catches last week, and while 8 grabs for just 27 yards isn’t anything to write home about, he also got 4 carries and scored his second rushing TD of the season. He’s a solid WR3 or Flex play this week against a Tampa defense that’s a passing game funnel and that has allowed the 5th most FPPG and the third most passing yards to opposing WRs.
Other Sleepers:
Amari Cooper (v. CHI). I was surprised to see Cooper ranked outside the top 25 this week, after he saw 14 targets from Joe Flacco last week. The Bears are playing very good defense of late, but I’d expect another busy day for Cooper.
Here are some WRs ranked outside the Top 30 this week who I think offer some upside, if you need them: W. Robinson (@NO), C. Samuel (@LAR), T. Lockett and JSN (vs. PHI), A. Thielen (vs. ATL), and OBJ (@JAC).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Drake London (@CAR). I had London as a sleeper last week, and he made me look good by going off (10-172-0) against the Bucs’ weak pass defense. So after that, he’s a Fade? What gives? What gives is that for whatever reason, London’s home/road splits are as stark as any player in the league. In his last 2 road games, he’s got less than 5 fantasy points combined, and he has yet to have more than 55 receiving yards in a road game this season. The Panthers are also a bad matchup, as they’ve allowed the 6th fewest FPPG to WRs. They’re a run-funnel defense, and Arthur Smith will be more than happy to oblige them with a massive ground attack.
Other Fades:
Jaylen Waddle (vs. NYJ). If Tyreek Hill doesn’t play, he’ll see extra volume, but how many good WRs do the Jets need to shut down before people believe it? Get this: The Jets have allowed the fewest receptions, yards, TD catches (just 3!), and FPPG to opposing WRs. Throw in the likelihood of bad weather and Waddle scares me this week.
George Pickens (@IND). It’s a good matchup, but I can’t trust Pickens, who I’ve regularly (and for the most part, correctly) faded all season. The Steelers don’t have a competent NFL QB on their roster, and Pickens is very big-play reliant (and those plays aren’t happening). Sad but true. Pass, again.
More Fades: B. Cooks (@BUF), T. Higgins (vs. MIN), M. Brown (vs. SF), G. Davis (vs. DAL), and LAC WRs (@LV).
Engram is Peaking at the Best Time for Fantasy Managers
TE:
Elite options - Kelce, Hockenson, LaPorta, and Kittle; the analysis starts below those 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Isaiah Likely (@JAC). From bench player to Ride of the Week! Likely is ranked as the TE9 this week and I like him for a top 5 finish. The Jaguars have struggled against TEs, and just got lit up by David Njoku. They’ve allowed the 6th most FPPG to TEs on the season. Meanwhile, in his 2 starts since Mark Andrews went down, Likely has 9 catches for 123 yards and a TD. This offense always features the TE, and Likely should be in for a good game.
Other Rides:
Evan Engram (vs. BAL). It’s a tough matchup, but there’s no denying the increased usage Engram has seen since Christian Kirk got hurt. After not scoring a TD through Week 12, Engram has 3 scores in the last 2 weeks, not to mention 20 catches for 175 yards on 21 targets. Ride the hot hand.
David Njoku (vs. CHI). This is another case of riding the hot hand. Njoku, like Engram, is coming off a 2 TD effort, and the upgrade to Joe Flacco’s big arm is a plus.
Jake Ferguson (@BUF). Here’s one more hot hand to ride. Imagine, 3 hot TEs! How the position has changed…Anyway, over his last 2 games, Ferguson has 11 catches for 149 yards and a TD. They’ll need him against the Bills, in what easily could be a shootout. I also like Dalton Kincaid (vs. DAL) in the same game.
TE Sleeper of the Week: Tucker Kraft (vs. TB). Kraft is ranked just outside the Top 15 TEs this week, but he should do better than that. In addition to Christian Watson, the Packers could also be without WR Dontayvion Wicks, which would open up more opportunities for Kraft. The way to beat the Bucs is through the air, and I think Kraft has some upside this week.
Other Sleepers:
Logan Thomas (@LAR). Thomas hasn’t done much over his last few games, but the Commanders will be playing catchup, and the Rams have been a great matchup for opposing TEs (third most FPPG allowed, and 7 TDs yielded which is tied for the most in the NFL).
If you’re stuck, consider: G. Everett (@LV), C. Otton (@GB), and T. Higbee (vs. WAS, if he plays).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Dalton Schultz/Brevin Jordan (@TEN). Only one team in the NFL has yet to allow a TE to score this year, and it’s…wait for it…the Titans! I know, that surprised me also. With Stroud and Schultz both iffy, I’ll stay away from any and all Texans’ TEs this week.
Other Fades:
Pat Freiermuth (@IND). I’m fading this entire passing game this week. In the 2 games since his huge output in Week 12, Patty Fries hasn’t topped 4 fantasy points.
Others I’d avoid this week, despite some recent success: T. Hudson (vs. MIN) and H. Henry (vs. KC).
D/ST and PK: See the Week 15 Waiver Wire column for this week’s best streaming options at these positions: Waiver Wire Week 15.
That’s a wrap! Good luck to all this week, and I hoe to see you back here next week.
DH
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire column posts each Monday night. Please bookmark the site and come back often. We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
